A Risky Turn in the Business Cycle

Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI joins Real Vision once again to provide an update on where we are in the business cycle. He provides his short-term forecast, and discusses the potential long-term implications. He delves into the causes of the “secular stagnation” the global economy appears to be experiencing. Finally, he explains what most economists tend to get wrong about recessions. Filmed on April 6, 2018 in New York.

Published on
16 April, 2018
Topic
Recession, Global Outlook, US Economy
Duration
31 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
70

Comments

  • MM

    Michael M.

    24 4 2018 23:05

    2       1

    "slowing" - That was the last word of one of the segments made undecipherable because the music jumped in to cut it off.

    Thank you transcript: "You know, near-term, our US exports look pretty good. And Chinese are going to keep slowing."

    Last time Mr. Achuthan was on RV Grant Williams interviewed him and that format was better for the listener and conveyed respect to the interviewee. This format is far worse for the listener and in my opinion less respectful to the interviewee.

  • DK

    Dean K.

    22 4 2018 16:26

    6       4

    The rock music detracts from the presentations.

  • CZ

    Catherine Z.

    22 4 2018 02:18

    20       0

    RV - please remember that many of us are listening to these interviews in audio only. We can’t see the questions the guest is answering (but are aware that we’re missing the question because the rock music chimes in). Id like to suggest that instead of that music, you have somewhat state the question so that we can properly follow the interview. I’ve seen similar comments on so many other videos and am puzzled as to why RV doesn’t address this. Thx

  • CZ

    Catherine Z.

    22 4 2018 02:17

    1       0

    RV - please remember that many of us are listening to these interviews in audio only. We can’t see the questions the guest is answering (but are aware that we’re missing the question because the rock music chimes in). Id like to suggest that instead of that music, you have somewhat state the question so that we can properly follow the interview. I’ve seen similar comments on so many other videos and am puzzled as to why RV doesn’t address this. Thx

  • CZ

    Catherine Z.

    22 4 2018 02:17

    0       0

    RV - please remember that many of us are listening to these interviews in audio only. We can’t see the questions the guest is answering (but are aware that we’re missing the question because the rock music chimes in). Id like to suggest that instead of that music, you have somewhat state the question so that we can properly follow the interview. I’ve seen similar comments on so many other videos and am puzzled as to why RV doesn’t address this. Thx

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    18 4 2018 01:53

    2       0

    this is from his Jan 2016 interview:
    "Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder & COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, returns to describe how his business cycle assessment doesn't currently suggest potential global growth, explaining the overlap with secular growth deflation and the limitations the Fed face when prescribing monetary policy"

    How much confidence can you have in his current forecasts when the same guy was banging the deflation table just before yields bottomed and we got our lovely synchronized global reflationary wave?

  • JH

    Joseph H.

    17 4 2018 20:35

    2       0

    The trending <2% GDP figure for Q1 will be explained away by weather. The Fed will dither, they see what L.A. sees. Or maybe not, they plow ahead, ignore the data, play matador and slaughter the bull. September 30 rolls around and the government's fiscal year ends with a hole in the budget so deep that you can see straight through to China. The Fed dithers some more. The HOR's swings back to the Dems in November. The stimulus didn't stimulate, the consumer didn't spend the tax cut, the corporation puts off capex until >2020.

  • SW

    Scott W.

    17 4 2018 11:55

    11       1

    I think it's cool they've brought him back for the new Jurassic Park movie.

  • DS

    David S.

    17 4 2018 03:05

    2       0

    It seems the real actionable guidance that Mr. Achuthan can report is when something is NOT a recession. In the old days recessions were important milestones and effected the whole market. Now it seems you can have a recession in one segment of the market like retail and another section does well - in stocks as well as the actual economy. China might be able to engineer a slowdown this year and turn on the gas a year before the next election. Predicting recessions is getting less predictable with all the non-market disrupters like central banks, governments, terrorist, and just crazy people. DLS

  • dw

    douglas w.

    17 4 2018 02:02

    9       3

    I understand this gentleman is an incredibly smart economist, but when someone doesn't have to put $ on any of his/her ideas, the ideas seem to be conceptual and intellectualized rather than realized, distilled into something concrete. (I found the ideas to be overly generalized) Recently, I like Michael Oliver much better for bigger picture macro.

  • PP

    Patrick P.

    16 4 2018 19:32

    17       1

    I have listened to Lakshman many times...Normally he is very firm in his views. Today he sounded like mashed potatoes.....And of course that is where we are in the cycle...IMO.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    16 4 2018 17:49

    15       0

    I have followed ECRI’s excellent work for more than twenty years and before that the work of Geoffrey Moore. ECRI’s proprietary work is a bit “nuanced” (IMO) and it is that aspect, in fact, that makes it so useful as an adjunct to other variables we are bombarded with. The beauty of Michael Oliver’s work and that of ECRI, again IMO, is that they catch the “rounding” and structural big picture patterns w/o the “price” and specific data points that go into much of the predictive opinions we are routinely exposed to. Just great that RV has been able to present us with both Michael Oliver’s and ECRI’s unique perspective! Kudos to Curator Milton.

    I do want to point out to my fellow RV’ers the following (and I do so in a positive spirit as I am a big fan of their work): Quite a few years ago Lakshman on behalf of ECRI made an unequivocal huge wrong call on a Cycle/Market turn—the only major call I ever remember them making....and they got it dead wrong (perhaps they fell victim to violating their mantra of not predicting their predictors). All their “protestations”, “walk backs” and rationalizations did not, IMHO, change the fact that they blew a Major call—they went out on a limb and would have gotten huge credit if they were correct—but they were not and had to suffer the consequences. To Lakshman’s credit ECRI has soldiered on and remained true to their core work, which work I believe to be extremely valuable to RV viewers.

  • GS

    George S.

    16 4 2018 17:47

    5       1

    Brilliant primer on the business cycle with a great forward looking perspective! Might turn out to be a very very important video you cannot afford to miss.

  • Jc

    Justin c.

    16 4 2018 17:45

    9       1

    I love this guy and his work. Please keep as a regular. I feel like we should hear from him every six months at least since we know he doesn't shy away from TV appearances.

  • JD

    Jeff D.

    16 4 2018 17:22

    21       1

    Super good.
    Side note: I love RV. You guys are providing such great content, but the loud music is unnecessary. I am a millennial, and enjoy loud activities as much as anyone, but not when I'm trying to focus on macro words-of-wisdom. If you are trying to attract younger viewers/investors/customers, the rock music isn't the way. Your customers want knowledge with the occasional attractive interviewer. You guys should have WAY MORE viewers. There millions of poor young people looking for knowledge on youtube. They might not even know what the Federal Reserve is, and what are they going to find? Peter Schiff...Mike Maloney...Data Dash?Good stuff, but not RV good. I don't know your business model, but if connecting with people that are tired of being poor is part of it, you could do better. There is a huge wealth gap in this country, but there is an equally large knowledge gap. Ask 10 people on the street, "What is the Federal Reserve?" and you will know how wide that gap is. Simple RV videos on youtube, with ample rock and roll, would do well to attract new viewers. Teach people macro A-B-C, and they will want more from that teacher. Love you guys. Rock on!

  • JS

    Jim S.

    16 4 2018 16:44

    1       0

    Love the process & effort to limit predictions to what speaker believes data is (& isn't) good for...

    I suspect this may exist on RV somewhere (& would love to be directed to it), but if not, would like to get ECRI's take - along with Raoul's, et al - on their structural economic process. i.e.:

    1) what are specific data inputs for demographics (organic & immigrant), including historical charts that show inflection points; when those points became "visible"; & when they started to have significant impact on underlying economies. I've heard millennials are largest generation in US history & that GenZ is almost as big as baby boom - how/when could impact of those generations potentially reverse demographic declines?

    2) My sense is that productivity is fairly volatile (at least relative to demographics). But same question on these: What are best markers & time frames where inflection points become visible & then impactful?

    IMO, these concepts/videos are RV at its big-picture best... Much appreciated - thanks.

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    16 4 2018 16:16

    1       0

    Does anyone know how / where to get a graph of ECRIs long leading indicator?

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    16 4 2018 16:15

    0       0

    Does any 9ne know how to get

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    16 4 2018 14:30

    12       0

    Wow! Another timely video with so much useful macro information. It doesn't come much more top down in analysis than this! Loved it!

  • DB

    Darko B.

    16 4 2018 11:43

    20       5

    This guy has a very data driven analysis with no opinion, I like it. Add that to the fact he has mean scar on his brow and it makes me think he's a ninja. Ninja's know stuff