A Sea Change in Market Momentum

Featuring Michael Oliver

Michael Oliver has been analyzing market momentum for over 25 years. He started his firm, Momentum Structural Analysis after spotting the turning point ahead of the 1987 stock market crash. He believes that today is one of the most exciting times in his career, since all four major asset classes are undergoing a momentum change. Oliver forecasts that bonds will sell off and U.S. equities will suffer, but thinks there are some incredible opportunities in other assets that should get investors very excited. Filmed on March 12th, 2018.

Published on
21 March, 2018
Topic
Bonds, US Economy, Technical Analysis, Valuation
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
28

Comments

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    9 4 2018 22:41

    1       0

    Good video ... And ... this presumes the metals markets aren't rigged.

    Gold and silver will do what JPM decides they'll do.

  • AS

    Aaron S.

    8 4 2018 15:16

    0       0

    Great video. Nice work guys. Does anyone here have any recommendations on how to get exposure to Wheat and Soy? I'm pretty intrigued from what I've seen lately. Wondering if there are other vehicles worth checking out outside futures.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    29 3 2018 22:26

    0       0

    I was able to find a hard back first edition Henry Kaufman book signed to David Stockman, titled: Interest Rates, The Markets, and the New Financial World. Awesome book so far----thanks for the heads up Mr. Oliver. Can we have some more please?

  • DC

    Darrell C.

    27 3 2018 00:40

    3       0

    Me Oliver speaks a very convincing analysis, but he stated, in his January 2017 RV interview, a downturn or topping of the market, thus missing one the biggest yearly returns. Maybe he was just early, but his timing was costly.....

  • MS

    Matt S.

    26 3 2018 00:16

    1       0

    Never heard of this guy before - found the video very engaging. Not sure how to place a position in grains though... comment below says ETFs should be avoided. I don't understand futures so.... guess I'm out!

  • fT

    forecast T.

    25 3 2018 22:38

    0       0

    Could anyone translate his momentum technical into laymen? please.

  • fT

    forecast T.

    25 3 2018 22:29

    1       0

    This guy is technical trader goals

  • GO

    Greg O.

    25 3 2018 12:41

    0       0

    Excellent presentation. Thank you!

  • bm

    brian m.

    25 3 2018 08:04

    0       0

    Position sizing allows you to exploit what would otherwise be a disaster

  • WP

    William P.

    25 3 2018 03:43

    0       0

    A very interesting viewpoint providing an action plan for portfolios.

  • PV

    Peter V.

    25 3 2018 00:06

    0       0

    Excellent

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    24 3 2018 21:46

    6       0

    Absolutely fantastic Q&A session from Michael. I've probably passed this guy in the halls and streets of downtown NYC where I started at Merrill Lynch in 1974!

    This man has it together and delivers a charismatic but outright "in your face" true message about key markets and the destiny of those leaders known as FAANG's etc....Great cross ideas and practical explanations about market responses to intervention, fear and then direction. I would only be concerned about an extended reversal in the USD vs EM, Commodities, Gold and T-Bonds! What I mean is you'd require a powerful and strong GUT to manage your way through without central bank unleashing QE4 etc....Then of course, the reflation trade would be the big winner for Gold and Cody's!!!

  • RL

    Rui L.

    24 3 2018 16:20

    2       0

    Agree with many good comments bellow. At this time I see 15 thumbs down. Just wondering, could one of you guys let me know why the thumb down ?

  • RD

    RP D.

    24 3 2018 02:26

    1       0

    Michael Oliver is brilliant. Thanks for this great content. 10/10

  • GM

    Greg M.

    23 3 2018 17:59

    1       0

    This was great. I wish it was a bit longer. I felt the interview was really picking up steam in the final 5 minutes.

  • NA

    Nickle A.

    23 3 2018 15:52

    2       2

    This was excellent! Concise and high-quality discussion. Thank you RV!

  • R

    Ralph .

    23 3 2018 04:45

    1       1

    Great

  • TS

    Todd S.

    23 3 2018 00:21

    0       0

    Well done, thank you!

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    22 3 2018 22:44

    1       0

    Excellent - thank you RV!

  • MM

    Michael M.

    22 3 2018 17:51

    4       0

    leeeverage!!

  • SH

    Simon H.

    22 3 2018 17:35

    1       1

    What is the cheapest & safest way to buy wheat/grains ?

  • AF

    Aidan F.

    22 3 2018 16:23

    9       0

    This guy is a class act.

  • AB

    Alain B.

    22 3 2018 15:07

    5       0

    For those not familiar with Michael Oliver, I suggest that you view a previous RVTV interview on 24 January, 2017. His latest comments will make more sense.

  • MR

    Marten R.

    22 3 2018 04:05

    5       1

    Great stuff. This is conviction with a capital C, borne from experience in markets and amazing performance/ results over extended timeframes. I urge all RVTV to Listen with a capital L... and Act... with a capital A.
    If you go to MSA website, you can subscribe and receive some free periodic updates and get access to some of the historical advice/ analysis, which is very worthwhile.
    MR

  • JL

    John L.

    22 3 2018 03:28

    12       0

    What a remarkable 30 minutes of wisdom from Michael Oliver.
    Thank you very much Real Vision.
    Having watched hundred's of RV videos from the viewpoint of getting tradable ideas and actionable themes, this time, I just sat back and really listened to his words, which were grounded in experience and humility.
    Personally, (and at the risk of confirmation bias-the bane of all traders) did you intuit his implicit call for a return to the gold standard, when some western central banks get abolished? "Lets back our currency with something real. Lets don't do this manipulated money unit stuff anymore."
    Most worthwhile indeed.

  • DC

    D C.

    22 3 2018 02:41

    1       0

    Interesting insights, Michael...also, what are the Bollinger Bands setting you use for the width measurements? The usual 20, 2,2 ?

  • SS

    Sean S.

    22 3 2018 02:31

    2       0

    Interesting that he says USD rates story is totally wrong... and then higher rates should mean lower stocks in US.

    But to be honest these momentum structure reports are always astonishing in how they forecast price changes.

  • PD

    Peter D.

    22 3 2018 00:00

    0       0

    When Oliver says the "menu includes four asset categories" does he mean:

    1. Stocks
    2. Bonds
    3. Real estate and...
    4. Precious metals?

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    21 3 2018 20:37

    3       0

    Brilliant insights from Michael, who I am not familiar with, probably because I have never mastered technical analysis. I love his comments on commodities and especially gold and hope he is right. I also hope his prophecies about some central banks becoming extinct come to pass, which to my mind would benefit the human race, but sadly I can't really see the powers that be permitting this, regardless of market forces, although the rise of the petroyuan at the expense of the petrodollar might force this to happen eventually, many years down the road. Also while I understand the technical momentum indicators on TBonds and Bunds might be screaming higher yields short term, I simply cannot on a fundamental analysis basis see anything but much lower yields ultimatley, due to the continuing deflationary impact from the ongoing collapse of the eurodollar global debt system. Fascinating market analysis which has opened my eyes to an alternative view, and I hope RVTV has Michael back regularly.

  • DW

    DANIEL W.

    21 3 2018 20:25

    5       0

    Always appreciate hearing insights from Michael Oliver. Hope that he is featured more frequently to share updates.

  • AJ

    Andy J.

    21 3 2018 19:55

    5       0

    EXCELLENT AND TO THE POINT!

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    21 3 2018 19:52

    4       0

    Fantastic video! Thanks a lot Michael!

  • DL

    Dan L.

    21 3 2018 18:30

    4       2

    I'd love to learn how Michael puts together these MSA charts so I can do it on my own.

  • JD

    Jeff D.

    21 3 2018 17:09

    12       0

    We want more than 30 min!
    If these videos were 60 min long, but stopped (paused) halfway through. I bet most RV viewers would start (play) the second half.
    Part 1 = executive summary
    Part 2 = deeper dive into the topic
    Love you guys. Thanks.

  • AK

    Anthony K.

    21 3 2018 16:58

    10       1

    Michael is simply one of the most unique technical guys I have ever come across. Always a pleasure to read his work and the videos make it even better.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    21 3 2018 15:17

    10       2

    Very well thought out and it makes a lot of sense however it currently runs contrary to Raoul and Julian's view of a rising dollar. Would be great to see the three of them debate the direction of the dollar.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    21 3 2018 15:09

    9       0

    Superb analysis! Michael Oliver, u have connected the dots for all asset categories! Thank u!!

  • GT

    Graham T.

    21 3 2018 14:05

    2       0

    What can I say? I believe and am long the EXK . The only person up so far is my broker with his com. Time will tell. I hope to invite him onto my yacht In the Cap D'Antibes.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    21 3 2018 14:03

    7       0

    Excellent, Michael is class act and presents his views clearly in a way that everyone understands.

  • BT

    Brian T.

    21 3 2018 11:33

    58       0

    Bravo! MSA was a major find for me, revealed by RVTV. I have subscribed for 6 months now and I read all the reports religiously. I have followed MSA's advice and made good returns. On 2/2, MSA flagged 2790 on the S&P as the break point. They had also flagged at the same time a highly likely breakout in the VIX. So at 3pm, I bought volatility, hedged my equity positions and went net short. What a terrific call that worked like a charm! And what is interesting is that 2790 has held on a daily closing basis containing the S&P rise (last week). The approach works.

    I have also been using Thomas Thornton's terrific service Hedge Fund Telemetry in conjunction with MSA, following the major trends (I prefer not to trade counter-trend) and using the DeMark indicators in conjunction with MSA's momentum directional calls. Together, these two tools have proved to be a powerful combination.

    Like all investing, patience is required. But I have seen a major change in my portfolio performance since I started using these tools, and they have given me far more confidence in taking and holding positions. Nothing is perfect, this is real work, and making a quick buck with no draw down on an entry is not common...but of course it is very satisfying when it does happen. The results over time have been extremely good. I thank RVTV for bringing these terrific services to my attention.

    While I see complaints from time to time on the various comment sections, I truly believe RVTV is achieving its mission of vastly superior education and information on investing. We all want it to be perfect and of course nothing ever is. If you really engage in thinking about what the terrific team at RVTV is putting out, and act on it, it will be to your profit. And the service is continually improving. My hat is off to the terrific team at RVTV.

  • BO

    Bryan O.

    21 3 2018 11:12

    17       0

    Very thought provoking. Makes a lot of sense. My only concern is that these views are almost perfectly aligned with my own.

  • CD

    Chris D.

    21 3 2018 11:05

    9       1

    Simply great! Michael is right and to paraphrase Oscar Wilde in this context of fiat-currencies:

    "A man who knows the price of everything, knows the value (and momentum) of nothing"

  • PU

    Peter U.

    21 3 2018 10:24

    1       0

    So far this is excellent!