A Sea Change in Market Momentum

Published on
March 21st, 2018
Topic
US Economy, Bonds, Technical Analysis, Valuation
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Equities

A Sea Change in Market Momentum

The Expert View ·
Featuring Michael Oliver

Published on: March 21st, 2018 • Duration: 32 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: US Economy, Bonds, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Michael Oliver has been analyzing market momentum for over 25 years. He started his firm, Momentum Structural Analysis after spotting the turning point ahead of the 1987 stock market crash. He believes that today is one of the most exciting times in his career, since all four major asset classes are undergoing a momentum change. Oliver forecasts that bonds will sell off and U.S. equities will suffer, but thinks there are some incredible opportunities in other assets that should get investors very excited. Filmed on March 12th, 2018.

Comments

  • WP
    William P.
    15 November 2018 @ 00:54
    Would love to hear from Mr Oliver again on RV.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    9 April 2018 @ 22:41
    Good video ... And ... this presumes the metals markets aren't rigged. Gold and silver will do what JPM decides they'll do.
  • AS
    Aaron S.
    8 April 2018 @ 15:16
    Great video. Nice work guys. Does anyone here have any recommendations on how to get exposure to Wheat and Soy? I'm pretty intrigued from what I've seen lately. Wondering if there are other vehicles worth checking out outside futures.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    29 March 2018 @ 22:26
    I was able to find a hard back first edition Henry Kaufman book signed to David Stockman, titled: Interest Rates, The Markets, and the New Financial World. Awesome book so far----thanks for the heads up Mr. Oliver. Can we have some more please?
  • DC
    Darrell C.
    27 March 2018 @ 00:40
    Me Oliver speaks a very convincing analysis, but he stated, in his January 2017 RV interview, a downturn or topping of the market, thus missing one the biggest yearly returns. Maybe he was just early, but his timing was costly.....
  • MS
    Matt S.
    26 March 2018 @ 00:16
    Never heard of this guy before - found the video very engaging. Not sure how to place a position in grains though... comment below says ETFs should be avoided. I don't understand futures so.... guess I'm out!
    • bm
      brian m.
      26 March 2018 @ 07:46
      Matt S..Check out Andrew Lo on youtube ..he explains futures and forward contracts..I should say he explains them brilliantly
  • fT
    forecast T.
    25 March 2018 @ 22:38
    Could anyone translate his momentum technical into laymen? please.
    • fT
      forecast T.
      25 March 2018 @ 22:43
      It oscillates back to the mean
    • MO
      Michael O. | Contributor
      17 May 2018 @ 03:07
      visit our site www.olivermsa.com under methodology tab for explanations, best, Michael Oliver
  • fT
    forecast T.
    25 March 2018 @ 22:29
    This guy is technical trader goals
  • GO
    Greg O.
    25 March 2018 @ 12:41
    Excellent presentation. Thank you!
  • bm
    brian m.
    25 March 2018 @ 08:04
    Position sizing allows you to exploit what would otherwise be a disaster
  • WP
    William P.
    25 March 2018 @ 03:43
    A very interesting viewpoint providing an action plan for portfolios.
  • PV
    Peter V.
    25 March 2018 @ 00:06
    Excellent
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    24 March 2018 @ 21:46
    Absolutely fantastic Q&A session from Michael. I've probably passed this guy in the halls and streets of downtown NYC where I started at Merrill Lynch in 1974! This man has it together and delivers a charismatic but outright "in your face" true message about key markets and the destiny of those leaders known as FAANG's etc....Great cross ideas and practical explanations about market responses to intervention, fear and then direction. I would only be concerned about an extended reversal in the USD vs EM, Commodities, Gold and T-Bonds! What I mean is you'd require a powerful and strong GUT to manage your way through without central bank unleashing QE4 etc....Then of course, the reflation trade would be the big winner for Gold and Cody's!!!
  • RL
    Rui L.
    24 March 2018 @ 16:20
    Agree with many good comments bellow. At this time I see 15 thumbs down. Just wondering, could one of you guys let me know why the thumb down ?
  • RD
    RP D.
    24 March 2018 @ 02:26
    Michael Oliver is brilliant. Thanks for this great content. 10/10
  • GM
    Greg M.
    23 March 2018 @ 17:59
    This was great. I wish it was a bit longer. I felt the interview was really picking up steam in the final 5 minutes.
  • NA
    Nickle A.
    23 March 2018 @ 15:52
    This was excellent! Concise and high-quality discussion. Thank you RV!
  • R
    Ralph .
    23 March 2018 @ 04:45
    Great
  • TS
    Todd S.
    23 March 2018 @ 00:21
    Well done, thank you!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    22 March 2018 @ 22:44
    Excellent - thank you RV!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    22 March 2018 @ 17:51
    leeeverage!!
  • SH
    Simon H.
    22 March 2018 @ 17:35
    What is the cheapest & safest way to buy wheat/grains ?
    • MM
      Michael M.
      22 March 2018 @ 18:05
      Should generally avoid etf's for grains because of the decay. Simply look how much they've eroded over time. WEAT is one - teucrium wheat fund. If you can't manage the futures or have someone do it for you then avoid, imo.
    • bm
      brian m.
      25 March 2018 @ 07:26
      Ive been trading futures for a few years now (through a broker)..The duration of the contracts encourages me to trade on technicals..but I keep my leverage low and Ive been doing good (mostly from sugar)
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    22 March 2018 @ 16:23
    This guy is a class act.
  • AB
    Alain B.
    22 March 2018 @ 15:07
    For those not familiar with Michael Oliver, I suggest that you view a previous RVTV interview on 24 January, 2017. His latest comments will make more sense.
  • MR
    Marten R.
    22 March 2018 @ 04:05
    Great stuff. This is conviction with a capital C, borne from experience in markets and amazing performance/ results over extended timeframes. I urge all RVTV to Listen with a capital L... and Act... with a capital A. If you go to MSA website, you can subscribe and receive some free periodic updates and get access to some of the historical advice/ analysis, which is very worthwhile. MR
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      23 March 2018 @ 13:08
      Been to the MSA website and couldn't find any kind of heavily watered down free subscription option under subscribe: https://www.olivermsa.com/suscribe.html I could only find the following: https://www.olivermsa.com/contactsample-reports.html What did I miss?
    • WM
      Will M.
      23 March 2018 @ 16:35
      Just get the sample reports and read them and then he will allow you to subscribe. Less than $500 per quarter.
  • JL
    John L.
    22 March 2018 @ 03:28
    What a remarkable 30 minutes of wisdom from Michael Oliver. Thank you very much Real Vision. Having watched hundred's of RV videos from the viewpoint of getting tradable ideas and actionable themes, this time, I just sat back and really listened to his words, which were grounded in experience and humility. Personally, (and at the risk of confirmation bias-the bane of all traders) did you intuit his implicit call for a return to the gold standard, when some western central banks get abolished? "Lets back our currency with something real. Lets don't do this manipulated money unit stuff anymore." Most worthwhile indeed.
    • WM
      Will M.
      23 March 2018 @ 16:33
      Yes John, you can contrast Michaels experience and humility with Hugh Hendry's hubris and arrogance. Most RVT viewers should see the real winner.......
  • DC
    D C.
    22 March 2018 @ 02:41
    Interesting insights, Michael...also, what are the Bollinger Bands setting you use for the width measurements? The usual 20, 2,2 ?
  • SS
    Sean S.
    22 March 2018 @ 02:31
    Interesting that he says USD rates story is totally wrong... and then higher rates should mean lower stocks in US. But to be honest these momentum structure reports are always astonishing in how they forecast price changes.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    22 March 2018 @ 00:00
    When Oliver says the "menu includes four asset categories" does he mean: 1. Stocks 2. Bonds 3. Real estate and... 4. Precious metals?
    • EF
      E F.
      22 March 2018 @ 00:56
      stocks bonds commodities currencies?
    • DH
      Dominic H.
      22 March 2018 @ 05:22
      Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
    • MO
      Michael O. | Contributor
      25 March 2018 @ 00:16
      from Mike Oliver: I mean the four "exchange traded" asset categories: stocks, debt, forex and commodities. Good question.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    21 March 2018 @ 20:37
    Brilliant insights from Michael, who I am not familiar with, probably because I have never mastered technical analysis. I love his comments on commodities and especially gold and hope he is right. I also hope his prophecies about some central banks becoming extinct come to pass, which to my mind would benefit the human race, but sadly I can't really see the powers that be permitting this, regardless of market forces, although the rise of the petroyuan at the expense of the petrodollar might force this to happen eventually, many years down the road. Also while I understand the technical momentum indicators on TBonds and Bunds might be screaming higher yields short term, I simply cannot on a fundamental analysis basis see anything but much lower yields ultimatley, due to the continuing deflationary impact from the ongoing collapse of the eurodollar global debt system. Fascinating market analysis which has opened my eyes to an alternative view, and I hope RVTV has Michael back regularly.
    • BT
      Brian T.
      21 March 2018 @ 21:40
      Michael's work just points out where the money is FLOWING to. That's it. No rationale, no debating fundamentals, as they used to say on Dragnet "Just the Facts, Ma'am". From a fundamental basis, the only thing that can move rates up in a debt deflation is an increase in the velocity of money. If you Google "Fed Velocity of Money" you can find a chart that shows that - Eureka - the velocity of money is actually UP in the past 2 quarters, sequentially. So, my suggestion is to widen your view a little and consider WHY MSA's work might be saying rates are going to go up (since they are just reflecting where money is "voting" by its change of flow. I happen to see great merit in your debt-deflation-lower rates argument (which Lacy Hunt is still holding on to as well, a highly respected guy) - but I think you should consider that you just might be wrong, or at least you should define the point on a chart where you will have to admit to yourself you are in error. I think it could go either way based on policy missteps (one way or the other) and MSA is currently telling you which direction interest rates are going, which is up.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      21 March 2018 @ 22:35
      ... And just to add another layer to the rates and dollar up/down argument - it's likely to be both. For the intermediate term (likely 6 -18 mths. best guess) a weak $US environment with rising rates and volatile SP500. Depending on how fast and how long it takes to kill off the economy as it will, then rates will take a turn down into a deflationary environment (again). This has been Japans experience for close on 30 years and will continue until structural change occurs in their monetary system. Ditto with much of the developed world now staggering under an untenable debt load across both Private and Public sectors. Rogoff and Rheinhardt's book (This Time Is Different) outlines the eventual over-indebtedness effects extremely well. So does a brilliant Hoisington 1st Qtr 2015 review ( Lacy Hunt) that covers this very topic and currently stands tall in its' dissection of the debt/growth paradigm and resultant intermediate to longer term effects. As Michael states in this video, Central Bank actions eventually count for nought and the system resets driven by market forces. Adam Smith all over. Long live markets !!
  • DW
    DANIEL W.
    21 March 2018 @ 20:25
    Always appreciate hearing insights from Michael Oliver. Hope that he is featured more frequently to share updates.
    • EL
      Edward L.
      25 March 2018 @ 22:26
      ditto
  • AJ
    Andy J.
    21 March 2018 @ 19:55
    EXCELLENT AND TO THE POINT!
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      22 March 2018 @ 14:58
      I agree
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    21 March 2018 @ 19:52
    Fantastic video! Thanks a lot Michael!
  • DL
    Dan L.
    21 March 2018 @ 18:30
    I'd love to learn how Michael puts together these MSA charts so I can do it on my own.
    • WA
      William A.
      22 March 2018 @ 02:04
      The cost of learning would likely be greater than the price of his valuable service.
    • WM
      Will M.
      23 March 2018 @ 16:28
      His site gives you some details but i subscribe because he is an expert and i am not.
  • JD
    Jeff D.
    21 March 2018 @ 17:09
    We want more than 30 min! If these videos were 60 min long, but stopped (paused) halfway through. I bet most RV viewers would start (play) the second half. Part 1 = executive summary Part 2 = deeper dive into the topic Love you guys. Thanks.
  • AK
    Anthony K.
    21 March 2018 @ 16:58
    Michael is simply one of the most unique technical guys I have ever come across. Always a pleasure to read his work and the videos make it even better.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    21 March 2018 @ 15:17
    Very well thought out and it makes a lot of sense however it currently runs contrary to Raoul and Julian's view of a rising dollar. Would be great to see the three of them debate the direction of the dollar.
    • MO
      Mike O.
      21 March 2018 @ 22:29
      I seem to recall hearing from Erik Townshend on the most recent Macro Voices that he reached out to Juliette Declercq for her views recently and she still sees the dollar falling (although don't quote me, as I'd need to check).
    • EF
      E F.
      21 March 2018 @ 23:23
      As far as I understand they both see a long term trend lower in the dollar but fear a sharp and dangerous (self reinforcing) risk-off spike, after which the FED's reaction will be key
  • LA
    Linda A.
    21 March 2018 @ 15:09
    Superb analysis! Michael Oliver, u have connected the dots for all asset categories! Thank u!!
  • GT
    Graham T.
    21 March 2018 @ 14:05
    What can I say? I believe and am long the EXK . The only person up so far is my broker with his com. Time will tell. I hope to invite him onto my yacht In the Cap D'Antibes.
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      21 March 2018 @ 14:51
      What is the EXK, I can not find this as an index, only a stock.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      23 March 2018 @ 00:30
      Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK)
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    21 March 2018 @ 14:03
    Excellent, Michael is class act and presents his views clearly in a way that everyone understands.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    21 March 2018 @ 11:33
    Bravo! MSA was a major find for me, revealed by RVTV. I have subscribed for 6 months now and I read all the reports religiously. I have followed MSA's advice and made good returns. On 2/2, MSA flagged 2790 on the S&P as the break point. They had also flagged at the same time a highly likely breakout in the VIX. So at 3pm, I bought volatility, hedged my equity positions and went net short. What a terrific call that worked like a charm! And what is interesting is that 2790 has held on a daily closing basis containing the S&P rise (last week). The approach works. I have also been using Thomas Thornton's terrific service Hedge Fund Telemetry in conjunction with MSA, following the major trends (I prefer not to trade counter-trend) and using the DeMark indicators in conjunction with MSA's momentum directional calls. Together, these two tools have proved to be a powerful combination. Like all investing, patience is required. But I have seen a major change in my portfolio performance since I started using these tools, and they have given me far more confidence in taking and holding positions. Nothing is perfect, this is real work, and making a quick buck with no draw down on an entry is not common...but of course it is very satisfying when it does happen. The results over time have been extremely good. I thank RVTV for bringing these terrific services to my attention. While I see complaints from time to time on the various comment sections, I truly believe RVTV is achieving its mission of vastly superior education and information on investing. We all want it to be perfect and of course nothing ever is. If you really engage in thinking about what the terrific team at RVTV is putting out, and act on it, it will be to your profit. And the service is continually improving. My hat is off to the terrific team at RVTV.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      21 March 2018 @ 22:03
      Agree with you wholeheartedly Brian re RV aims and accomplishments to now. The criticism often comes from those who need their mashed apple spoon fed to them rather than adopting the time tested approach of leg work and patience. The exceptional video that comes along such as this one is well the wait. sp
    • WM
      Will M.
      23 March 2018 @ 16:22
      Yes Brian, I too subscribe to MSA because of the RVT exposure and read his commentary as it appears. I have taken a dip, but am close to committing some real money to the opportunities Michael proposes. It just feels right, although feelings should have nothing to do with it and the focus needs to be just on the numbers.
  • BO
    Bryan O.
    21 March 2018 @ 11:12
    Very thought provoking. Makes a lot of sense. My only concern is that these views are almost perfectly aligned with my own.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    21 March 2018 @ 11:05
    Simply great! Michael is right and to paraphrase Oscar Wilde in this context of fiat-currencies: "A man who knows the price of everything, knows the value (and momentum) of nothing"
  • PU
    Peter U.
    21 March 2018 @ 10:24
    So far this is excellent!

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