Benefiting From Emerging Market Mayhem

Published on
September 3rd, 2018
Duration
24 minutes

Benefiting From Emerging Market Mayhem

The Expert View ·
Featuring Simon White

Published on: September 3rd, 2018 • Duration: 24 minutes

Simon White of Variant Perception takes a look at the underlying causes of weakness in emerging markets. There are many parallels with previous crisis, but some of the best opportunities will be in timing the turnaround rather than chasing the sell-off. Filmed in on August 22, 2018 in London. A link to their research paper ‘Understanding EM Crises’ can be found at http://www.variantperception.com/realvision.

Comments

  • MC
    Matthew C.
    10 September 2018 @ 15:02
    Brilliant !
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    8 September 2018 @ 19:12
    What leading indicators do you look for in Asia?
  • JS
    Jens S.
    5 September 2018 @ 05:18
    Awsome interview from a great company. Please make this a regular apperance
  • nb
    nicholas b.
    4 September 2018 @ 00:54
    Xykklkonko
  • MS
    Mitchell S.
    3 September 2018 @ 21:52
    Hi, Thoroughly enjoyed. Based on the linked report and the comments made, changes in reserves and M1 and M2 can help identify the bottom in the markets. However, several online sources for this data (e.g. FRED) have very delayed reporting. Often more than quarter or two. Does anyone know of more real time reporting. Thanks Mitch
    • RM
      Robert M.
      4 September 2018 @ 05:42
      Select the weekly series of M1 on FRED. The latest data is Aug 20.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 September 2018 @ 07:46
      IMO it needs to be tied to velocity of money to be meaningful. DLS
    • MS
      Mitchell S.
      4 September 2018 @ 22:52
      Thanks. I should have been more precise. The US data is available weekly. I was looking for data on EM. Looking at his graphs, the bottom in several EM markets has coincided with an upturn in money supply. Unfortunately, the FRED on many of those markets is available only monthly and it seems to have a 1-3 month delay. :-(.
  • TH
    Truman H.
    3 September 2018 @ 20:37
    White says, "saying that higher interest rates leads to inflation is like saying that umbrellas lead to rain" -- what a terrific observation. And now I want to read "The Volatility Machine" by Michael Pettis.
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    3 September 2018 @ 19:51
    VP is always a treat to listen too. Bring them all back regularly. Give Simon twice the time to go further into his explanations and give examples. I’m sure RV is a great source for VP to gain new customers. Please come back.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    3 September 2018 @ 19:05
    Just one complaint! Could you PLEASE have someone, Justine perhaps, speak the questions, rather than just having them flash on the screen. I usually just LISTEN to these interviews, and it's sometimes a challenge (and distracting!) to try to figure out what the question was that he is now answering. It would be a trivial additional effort to have someone with a distinctly different voice add the questions to the audio track, and would make the interview much more satisfactory to those of us who prefer to listen. Having said this, the content was GREAT!
  • ag
    amin g.
    3 September 2018 @ 18:14
    that LFC comment got me outta my seat !
  • DS
    David S.
    3 September 2018 @ 18:03
    Very well done. Since FX crises seem to have similar causes and predictable consequences, do you advise any governments? For confidential reasons a yes or no would be interesting. DLS
  • ii
    ida i.
    3 September 2018 @ 16:45
    He suggests buying South Africa, and yet some analysts like Chris Macintosh are signaling that South Africa is confiscating land and giving handouts just like Zimbabwe and Venezuela.... and so should end up the same, I wish we had more debates between analysts with different views
    • DR
      David R.
      3 September 2018 @ 18:28
      No, not until AFTER the conditions he describes are met, not now. He suggests more money is buying the blood on the streets, rather than selling into the downtrend. One is the way of Sir John Templeton; the other way is just more trend following.
    • DR
      David R.
      3 September 2018 @ 18:29
      No, not until AFTER the conditions he describes are met, not now. He suggests more money is made buying the blood on the streets, rather than selling into the downtrend. One is the way of Sir John Templeton; the other way is just more trend following.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 September 2018 @ 19:24
      I am not sure that debates would help on predicting the future. I thing a small group discussion would be better as we have seen recently on RVTV. DLS
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    3 September 2018 @ 11:48
    Excellent video. Feels like one of those I will be referring back to over time given the sober, well thought out, and very clearly articulated process he uses. I can definitely see how combing his fundamental analysis that ticks all the boxes (short, medium and long term indicators being aligned correctly) in combination with some basic medium to long term technical analysis, along with some patience and ability to withstand some short term vol could vastly improve one's probabilities of catching EM rebounds and the following runs.
  • NG
    Nick G.
    3 September 2018 @ 09:51
    Excellent. Many thanks, Simon.
  • CY
    CHIHLUN Y.
    3 September 2018 @ 09:40
    Simon and RV, Thank you for making sense of the EM topic - cutting away the madness that is the regular financial media and offering an explanation that is both insightful on the causes of such crises, yet understandable for the viewer.