China Slowdown: A Risk to the ‘Asian Century?’

Published on
October 3rd, 2019
Duration
33 minutes


China Slowdown: A Risk to the ‘Asian Century?’

The Expert View ·
Featuring Tony Nash

Published on: October 3rd, 2019 • Duration: 33 minutes

Will gathering headwinds in China force the Asian superpower into recession — and could a Chinese downturn snowball into a global slowdown? Tony Nash, founder of the AI platform Complete Intelligence, explores the themes behind China's slowing growth and weakening demography. The former head of Global Research for The Economist Intelligence Unit unpacks his outlook for Hong Kong's diminished role in China's future — and explores the broader question of whether frictions inside China's social contract could imperil the expansive vision of an 'Asian Century' to come. Filmed on September 14, 2019 at the Real Vision Blacklist Event in Grand Cayman.

Comments

Transcript

  • OD
    Orin D.
    11 October 2019 @ 10:23
    His firm builds neural networks that crunch data with no causal relationships first given to it. Yet his whole.imtervirw is discretionary views on China.......What does their output from neural networks say????
  • JG
    Jose G.
    9 October 2019 @ 23:23
    Agree with not being able to service usd denominated debt, but i dont agree with not being able to service CNY denominated debt, they have the printer in house.
  • DS
    David S.
    5 October 2019 @ 18:05
    Thanks, Mr. Nash, for an excellent summary. Very good points from AI and experience. I believe that Mr. Nash or someone else could do just as creditable job showing major problems in the Europe and the US. I do not see any major world economy that is in good shape. Yet there is a boatload of money sloshing around the world from all the money printing trying to be invested at a positive rate without major risks. This may be business as usual for the next 20 years. It certainly is a new world that I do not understand well enough to invest in long term. We will have to wait and see how it plays out. DLS
  • EK
    Edward K.
    4 October 2019 @ 14:18
    He comes across as very credible and thought-provoking. Keep hearing that China offers "potentially" great investments but have become increasingly skeptical over the years to the point believing that emerging markets was a false narrative. Essentially China=EM. China has benefited greatly from western subsidies/naivete/greed and in many respects Pandora's box has been opened. China may implode but it will continue to siphon off capital in the interim. Disproportianate risk to reward IMO.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    3 October 2019 @ 15:58
    Looking forward to hear how Jim Rodgers can paint a rosy picture in spite of all this!
    • dd
      david d.
      4 October 2019 @ 08:42
      jim is a broken record
  • SW
    Scott W.
    3 October 2019 @ 12:48
    A contract is typically understood as something entered voluntarily by participants. Did Chinese citizens willingly exchange social freedoms? When did they have these freedoms? Under Mao? Or maybe Xiaoping? He makes some interesting observations from a stock/flow perspective, but in the end seems like just another (likely brilliant) technocrat who's entirely too glib about different "modes of governance". After all, it's just math. Or am I being too "western" here?
  • TS
    Taranvir S.
    3 October 2019 @ 12:29
    All that is needed is a restart button to solve all the problems...all this debt issue is a confidence thing. We keep reading global debt at record levels but does it really matter? And who holds all that debt? If the fact is that we have borrowed against all of our future income, we are all deemed to enjoy lower real incomes in the future (currency devaluations + lower nominal growth)...Well maybe MMT has to be enacted ASAP .
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:09
      MMT is just the other side of the money printing coin. DLS
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    3 October 2019 @ 12:16
    Great interview. Thank you
  • SN
    Scott N.
    3 October 2019 @ 09:33
    Audio link pls?
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    3 October 2019 @ 09:05
    Awesome! At last some truth about china.
  • PN
    Philip N.
    3 October 2019 @ 08:53
    Pork going up 1% a day. That is gonna have an impact.
    • wj
      wiktor j.
      3 October 2019 @ 09:07
      Add other meats to your list. Add other groceries to your list.
    • IC
      Ibrahim C.
      4 October 2019 @ 03:18
      Cattle prices have already taken significant rise from the dips of last month and chicken prices have been just at the high range. They are ready to trend higher if some positive news/narrative will come from the refreshed talks of tariffs on 10-11.10.2019.