Consequences of a Divergent Fed

Featuring Christophe Ollari

The central banks of Europe, Japan and the U.S. were converging their policy through 2017. Christophe Ollari of Ollari Consulting argues that this year’s change at the Federal Reserve marks a highly significant turning point. Not only is the Fed moving in an opposite direction of other central banks, but their policy goals also set them in opposition to the Trump administration. Filmed on June 26, 2018 in London.

Published on
4 July, 2018
Topic
Global Outlook, Macro
Duration
27 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities
Rating
32

Comments

  • F

    Floyd .

    12 7 2018 20:16

    0       0

    well done. Agree on the subtitles,will read transcript.
    Outstanding feed back from Christophe on comments and questions made by subscribers.

  • F

    Floyd .

    12 7 2018 20:16

    2       0

    well done. Agree on the subtitles,will read transcript.
    Outstanding feed back from Christophe on comments and questions made by subscribers.

  • TB

    Tim B.

    12 7 2018 19:55

    2       0

    Fantastic! Christophe broke some new ground on how to assess the current setup. No easy feat with all the competing brain power here on RV.

    Thanks Christophe

  • AE

    Alex E.

    12 7 2018 03:25

    1       0

    A very enjoyable interview. Would like to see Mr. Ollari come back for a follow-up at year's end. While I'm no expert, I cannot see J. Powell doing QE Infinity...It's not in his financial makeup and he has stated that he would rather keep the system stable and let the Economy sort itself out rather than try pussy-footing around with Financial engineering...

  • LA

    Laurence A.

    10 7 2018 02:37

    1       1

    Enjoyed this a lot, thank you Christophe !
    Quick/basic question regarding the dollar shortage (re EM pain and weak balance sheets struggling) - how is this measured ? How can we keep track of this 'dollar quantity/flow' in ~real time, and what caused the recent shortage ?
    Merci !

  • RS

    Richard S.

    9 7 2018 19:45

    2       0

    Excellent thought provoking interview. Would be curious on Christopher's views on why the PM's and particularly PM mining shares have held up so well vs. the ongoing strength of USD. Discounting the "end game" ?

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    8 7 2018 14:09

    1       0

    Thanks a lot for the analysis Chris!

  • VM

    Vincent M.

    8 7 2018 02:10

    5       0

    This type of content is why I have been with RV since the beginning. Thank you Christopher O.

  • BM

    Beth M.

    7 7 2018 02:52

    9       1

    great commentary. although it would be nice to have closed captioning as it was difficult to understand him at times.

  • BM

    Beth M.

    7 7 2018 02:52

    1       0

    great commentary. although it would be nice to have closed captioning as it was difficult to understand him at times.

  • CC

    Charles C.

    6 7 2018 22:53

    8       0

    kudos to Christophe for commenting on viewer comments and questions. that's over and above and very helpful

  • TE

    Tito E.

    6 7 2018 21:16

    3       0

    Very good. Would enjoy hearing more from Christophe.

  • MB

    Mike B.

    6 7 2018 19:02

    0       0

    That was interesting. I had a hard time with the accent but managed to get most of his perpective. He said something about real assets being long $%$*^^% commodities. Was that agricultural commodities?

  • DI

    Dabangg I.

    6 7 2018 17:32

    6       0

    change the MUSIC!! or at least normalize it so that it is not significantly louder than the speaker's base volume. basic editing!

  • TS

    Tyler S.

    6 7 2018 16:19

    0       0

    I really need to get me an accent, I'm thinking English.. cheers!

  • NH

    Neil H.

    5 7 2018 17:15

    1       0

    Well thought out. I would like to hear thoughts from Felix zulauf if you can get him on rv.

  • tW

    tgwtom W.

    5 7 2018 17:12

    1       0

    Text of recent clever Juliette Declercq tweet that seems relevant here : @LukeGromen The thing is @LukeGromen is that I don't think Powell would have a put so low if he did not know Trump's one was so high ...

  • AG

    Abhimanyu G.

    5 7 2018 11:59

    3       0

    could someone please explain the following to me - apologies for my ignorance

    "When you have a steepener of the curve, you have an implicit long gamma, with a positive carry"

    thank you

  • AH

    Ahmed H.

    5 7 2018 11:26

    4       0

    amazing thinker..great timing on all topics..one thing lacking i think is Pboc..very few people comment on pboc...imo, pboc n fed the 2 to watch..if we can get someone to give more insight on pboc wud make for a more complete view

  • RS

    Richard S.

    5 7 2018 01:22

    1       0

    What is the trade?? Gold has no chance in this environment.

  • VV

    Vanessa V.

    4 7 2018 22:27

    10       0

    What a brilliant thinker - definitely one to revisit. Thank you for sharing your insights, Christophe. For those new to understanding Central Banks and the history/policies of the Fed, the 2013 documentary "Money for nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve" might be a useful backdrop. It features other RV guests such as Jim Grant, Peter Atwater, William White, John Mauldin and more. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maC7phpUVno

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 7 2018 21:46

    5       1

    Transcript of interview is helpful to decipher comments, but many instances of “inaudible” in document. Would be great to get subtitles next time. Cheers.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 7 2018 21:43

    0       0

    ...if possible. Thanks again.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 7 2018 21:42

    5       1

    ...other viewers may have struggled at times. Thank you Raoul and RV! P.S. please update iPhone app to remove character limit on comments; and please get Stan Druckenmiller on for an interview if poss

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 7 2018 21:41

    0       1

    ...subtitles if interviewees have strong accents. Good practice though in developing our listening skills. As I am a French speaker, not too difficult for me to make out 90% of comments but other buew

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 7 2018 21:38

    1       0

    This was excellent, and well worth replaying to decipher some of his comments. Very sharp thinker, interesting comments and like his focus on velocity of money as well. Please next time include...

  • FH

    Franz-Xaver H.

    4 7 2018 21:00

    2       0

    Great. Would like to hear more later.

  • MD

    Mathieu D.

    4 7 2018 19:38

    1       0

    Very interesting. Merci.

  • CN

    Charles N.

    4 7 2018 18:38

    1       0

    Fantastic piece, both the insightful commentary and the overlays of relevant graphs and definitions. Bravo!

  • Rk

    R k.

    4 7 2018 17:57

    2       0

    Superb overview of the tectonic battles ensuing.. Technicals surely favour his thesis but ultimately price "trumps"
    all. Time to fasten seat belts .

  • dm

    daryl m.

    4 7 2018 17:56

    5       4

    The music is great !

  • SH

    Steve H.

    4 7 2018 17:24

    1       0

    Excellent.

  • WM

    Will M.

    4 7 2018 16:45

    1       0

    Very good indeed. Many good folks are saying commodities are close to the bottom and RV viewers who are pro gold and silver may now finally seeing the last act of the bear market. Silver has performed well considering the gold price fall, but its closer to critical support. Gold looks like it could breakdown below 1200 for a re-test of 1140. Definitely time to watch closely. Christophe seems to have a good handle on a potential major turning point as we move into 2019.

  • MP

    Mark P.

    4 7 2018 16:16

    9       0

    Brilliant. Dovetails well with Eric Peters fantastic recent contributions (RV and Macrovoices). Both conclude counter intuitively QT will be inflationary for real assets while arriving at that conclusion via different logical pathways. Symmetric, non consensus, and just rings true. Thanks RV!
    Mark

  • HS

    Hubert S.

    4 7 2018 16:08

    19       5

    Off topic: Again, could we have at least a slightly less loud and annoying music ?
    I would not complain if it were for me alone, others have brought it up too .....

  • FD

    Francesco D.

    4 7 2018 16:02

    2       0

    Great interview. brilliant reasoning... any chance to have any references to his twitter account/blog etc etc?

  • BD

    Bruce D.

    4 7 2018 14:56

    3       0

    Fabulous explanation of what type of changes are on the horizon. Logic dictates that what worked under QE will suffer under QT, and inflation will next target Real Assets, which have suffered and are at historically cheap valuation levels vs paper assets, stocks and bonds. Buy commodities, gold, silver, and trim the highly inflated US stocks/bonds. Thank you again RV for providing thoughtful direction on possible outcomes.....

  • DC

    Daniel C.

    4 7 2018 14:38

    2       0

    Really smart thinker, trying to understand how being long the steepener is long gamma, at least in credit, steepners are short gamma, long carry and very dangerous trades to put on at the end of the cycle. I agree with his conclusions on long USD and US equities, this market has echos of the mid 70s before stagflation hit, the nifty fifty were the FANGs of their day

  • JM

    Jason M.

    4 7 2018 14:36

    11       0

    This was excellent. Combining the political-economy instincts of a veteran trader with excellent knowledge of the global liquidity system is a great way to tackle this market. I also liked the fact he kept pointing out the many things we don't know...but kept pushing forward into the darkness using his instincts. Please come back to RealVision in 3-4 months when the real game is beginning Christophe.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    4 7 2018 13:25

    24       0

    I've known Christophe for a long time and he was one of the best traders I've ever met and one of the smartest thinkers. His macro research is astonishingly good too.

  • RK

    Robert K.

    4 7 2018 12:57

    2       0

    This is gold! Very nice.
    Need to rewatch it once more to fully digest.

  • NG

    Nick G.

    4 7 2018 11:57

    3       0

    Just spent 2 hours doing money flows on the blackboard. Not sure I agree with all the conclusions, but that is neither here nor there. RV is here to make you think. This has made me think in spades. Thank you.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    4 7 2018 11:32

    9       2

    Subtitles please. Really difficult for me to understand.

  • LP

    Lionel P.

    4 7 2018 11:31

    1       0

    Great interview, comments and explanations on and of his views ! Merci Christophe

  • CM

    Carlos M.

    4 7 2018 10:41

    4       0

    one of the most logical and clearest stories I ve heard so far.