Macro Is Back

Published on
August 22nd, 2018
Topic
Monetary policy, Global Outlook, Macro
Duration
30 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities

Macro Is Back

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: August 22nd, 2018 • Duration: 30 minutes • Asset Class: Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities • Topic: Monetary policy, Global Outlook, Macro

Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, takes a deep dive into current market conditions, and articulates the risks of a deflationary bust in this newly macro-driven environment. Raoul explores the emerging dollar rally, Asian currency weakness, and the historic short trade on US Treasuries. He also touches on some specific ways to act upon his thesis. Filmed on August 20, 2018 in New York.

Comments

  • AW
    Arthur W.
    9 November 2018 @ 14:28
    Great video, agree with almost everything here! One of the only things that makes me hesitate from going net short in this market is the following: if we get into a substantial correction scenario, what stops the FED from turning QE back on in order to bring everything back? This bull market seems to have been mainly QE fueled, why does that stop now?
  • FM
    Florian M.
    10 October 2018 @ 19:23
    Didn't expect so much charting BS tbh. Fundamentals drive these charts, not the other way round.
  • SY
    Sunil Y.
    7 October 2018 @ 14:52
    Raoul - With the recent break in multi-year downtrend in the 10yr and 30yr UST rates broken, has your thinking changed now?
    • GG
      Glenn G.
      9 October 2018 @ 03:27
      Yikes, TLT now down at $112.66 - that play on calls at $120 would be in the red. Raoul, what is next, would appreciate an update to your thesis.
  • sb
    sandeep b.
    7 October 2018 @ 04:13
    Raoul pal - Here’s the recent calls: 2015-2016 - spx short. = failed Oil short, few times since 2016 = failed. Bond yields, TLT short = failed. Channel is great. Love some of the interviews but let’s talk about these?? For the record, put zero to work based on those calls. So, not a bitter subscriber. Actually an happy one. But ur thesis isn’t up to today’s environment. Far from it. Emailed you about them and got no answer.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      10 October 2018 @ 07:27
      Exactly, it’s a much better business to sell fancy research with beautiful soundtracks and the great cinematography that it is to go toe to toe and win in the marketplace
    • AT
      Alex T.
      12 October 2018 @ 21:41
      Brutal, savage
    • EU
      E U.
      29 November 2018 @ 22:51
      ...can you repeat what you said about Oil again?
  • TC
    Tom C.
    6 October 2018 @ 13:05
    It seems to me that all of this is dependent on Fed not changing course in 2019 RE QT and rate rises - a risk for sure, but not a high risk if events start running away. Now that the T10 yield has broken to the upside of the wedge, do you think that the risks of your scenario playing out are reduced Raoul? And how much could supply fundamentals in Crude and copper drive the price over and above the macro story?
  • EB
    Elinor B.
    3 October 2018 @ 01:38
    I have this opinion that DXY will drop once again to around 82 and then resume the uptrend in earnest after consolidating for 1-2 years.
  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    2 October 2018 @ 11:23
    I fancy this video has now become very relevant given the strong deflationary ‘kick-off’ that’s happening in October and from October onwards.
  • JP
    John P.
    22 September 2018 @ 23:42
    Thanks for the MACRO update Raoul. Checking in w/ you on the TLT play...Can you advise back with an update since the video aired...thanks much
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      24 September 2018 @ 19:14
      Lol why, its only been a few weeks
  • GU
    Greg U.
    17 September 2018 @ 20:53
    A tour de force that makes its case convincingly. But if it plays out this way, helicopter money will soon follow, so I'd be looking to sell those TLT calls and redeploy the proceeds into hard assets.
  • GW
    Guillermo W.
    5 September 2018 @ 22:30
    Outstanding! Great Job.
  • AM
    Artur M.
    5 September 2018 @ 18:45
    Thanks Raul, I have added a TLT & GE (eurodollar) call for 2020. It's worth a try as things are accelerating. I took your advice on Bitcoin in 2015 and that was life changing for me. Hope this one will play in simular way. Jeffrey Snider is also pointing to 29th May which shows spike in leading "ED instruments" and follow through in currencies, copper, gold . That could be eurodollar event no. 4 and what we see is already liquidity event unfolding before our eyes. Definitely worth few percent of capital. Thanks you for sharing your views and hard work. You make a difference //Artur
  • RE
    Ryan E.
    4 September 2018 @ 20:17
    Excellent video, Thanks Raoul, It would be great if you made a followup video focused the technical side of your trade recommendation. What dates did you buy the TLT calls, at what strikes and why? It it a strictly Vol. based trade, are you using straddles? how do you manage the trade on a weekly basis, are the call covered ect.. Thanks, Ryan
  • JR
    John R.
    31 August 2018 @ 20:55
    Raoul, thank you for the great talk. In your opinion what would happen to Gold and Silver under the deflationary, weak commodities cycle? And how long do you think the condition would last? Thanks John
  • DC
    Dan C.
    30 August 2018 @ 20:39
    Jeffery Gundlach CEO of Double Line and bond supremo has a different view. He says you can predict the yield of US 10s by averaging the US Nom GDP % and German Bunds. So he is saying US 10s will go to 6%. He estimates 100bps per year rise out to 500bps. I’m more inclined to go with Jeffery than Raoul’s crude squiggly lines!!
    • DR
      David R.
      3 September 2018 @ 18:49
      Mr Gundlach also says the US dollar will soon have a "massive crash". I like charts as IMO fundamentals are of limited help for making money in the market.
  • BF
    Brad F.
    30 August 2018 @ 07:43
    If you were buying calls on TLT what timeframe would you look at? Short term and roll them or longer term?
  • TP
    Tom P.
    29 August 2018 @ 19:11
    Let's be honest, it's the main reason we subscribe to RV. Great work as usual Raoul, thanks.
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    29 August 2018 @ 18:37
    Always love the analysis. I’ve been unable to buy TLT in the UK via the brokers I use. I’ve opted for IDTL which looks like ishares equivalent - unless I’m sorely mistaken!
    • SR
      Steve R.
      30 August 2018 @ 03:49
      You need to change your broker then, try one of the professional platforms like Saxo for example.
    • EF
      E F.
      30 August 2018 @ 16:03
      Actually buy IBTL instead which is the exact same as TLT/IDTL but GBP denominated, saving you the FX fees that won't be small judging by the kind of broker you are using. U might want to have a look at IG , best (and cheapest) broker by a mile in the UK
  • BH
    Ben H.
    28 August 2018 @ 08:40
    Hi love it as always but I am a bit concerned that some of the charts are made to suit your view which as you say started years ago (on this RTV journey) and you say that when the charts change you will change, but then in comments below you say that you change some of the charts to suit also. Well, I do my own charts on US10 and 2yr and they are both clearly breaking out of the down channel you refer to, if you go back to 1986. I just think if the chart is your starting point (with which I agree) then you should stick to your mandate so to speak rather than shorten some chart durations vs the some of your key assumptions like USD breaks.... I think you are also in danger of over curating your guests to predominantly USD bulls as we broke the 95.35-45 level. Now its looking like a fake breakout and the weekly opening up for a move to 90, with the 200 WMA failing? The long term downtrend would then still be intact...
  • CH
    Chris H.
    28 August 2018 @ 05:14
    Why did this site go down market and become like zerohedge?
    • DR
      David R.
      29 August 2018 @ 17:52
      Please elaborate? Posters on zerohedge are often vulgar and inflammatory.
    • CH
      Chris H.
      30 August 2018 @ 04:20
      I mean content - it’s been doom and gloom ever since RV was launched. It’s fun to be bearish but it doesn’t make money long term.
    • DR
      David R.
      3 September 2018 @ 19:50
      Right. Got it. Bearish was a good call for awhile not long after RV launched, but bearish has been the wrong call for two years - except to be bearish USD.
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    27 August 2018 @ 20:13
    Thanks Raoul for all your efforts!! How about an update post Jackson Hole??? Crisis abound??? Fyi, prices are real and they're still rising in August, or any other time of the year. This Stock market is where money is being made. To make more suggestions that crisis is nigh after what we've witnessed in a market dependent on monetary stimulus, BS tweets, BS accomplishments (i.e. NOK) that turn out to be lies etc....I'd say we have an incredibly resilient bull market showing no signs of weakness "AT ALL"! How about acknowledging the fact this market now known as a casino to many is making money for its participants and it's unreal, surreal, unprecedented and insane, making it almost impossible to predict what happens next. With all due respect, anyone who says or tries to predict some sort of a major move lower in asset markets (mainly equities but you know what I mean) sounds like, smells like and looks like complete BS and a waste of subscriber time, fees and confidence in the platform. IMHAO, it's wiser to wait for the move to be a proven break with conviction along with evidence of sentiment change and then talk all you want to help us make some money in the opposite direction. If anyone still remains excited to get bearish after listening to this or any other BS is nothing but a fool and still subject to the bear trap narrative. It's getting harder and harder to WANT to renew RV's subscription despite how much success RV has had(still love it but....). Makes me sad and disappointed that the beautiful, exciting, opportunistic and lucrative markets we once knew are now nothing more than a sham. Cheers to all but I'm pissed!! :) Sincerely, Vinnie
  • DC
    Dale C.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:58
    Time to have ECRI back.....
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:44
    Oops - not “lower” but “mild” inflation.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:44
    ...to be viewed within the context of an on-the-ground weaking of the dollar. Purchasing power of USD is being eroded, and despite official stats of lower inflation, people feeling consistently poorer
    • DR
      David R.
      29 August 2018 @ 17:56
      US inflation stats are lies like chinese gdp stats. The difference is the hypocrisy. Instead, for the true picture, one should follow ShadowStats for real US inflation and China Beige Book for real China growth.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:36
    One final thought: who is to say we have deflation vs. inflation?! We could have just inflation in pockets and general deflation everywhere else in global economy. To me, rising US markets need tp be
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:33
    ...society. Who cares what manipulated markets are doing when everyday people are massively struggling (at least in US).
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:33
    5. US already in recession most likely - weird tale of two societies - those at the top and everyone else. V. high income and general wealth / health / wellbeing inequality which is ripping apart sofi
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:31
    3. ...sufficient justification and rigorous analysis. 4. Agree with cautious 10-year long bond call position - pretty wise, but that does NOT necessarily suggest deflation.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:29
    2. ...stagflation is a real possibility - see Luke Gromen and Eric Peters’ brilliant work. Both do v. interesting and thoughtful analysis. 3. Many charts and conclusions presented without suffociemt
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:27
    1. ...brave new world of central bank liquidity and, one could argue, manipulation (obvious and subtle). 2. Why can’t we be in a stagflationary situation vs. deflationary situation. Seems to me that
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:26
    Highly respect Raoul’s work and his thinking, but this analysis seemed to be less clear and rigorous than his usual presentations: 1. Charts are not always telling us something. We are in a...
  • EF
    E F.
    27 August 2018 @ 11:05
    only problem i see is you will keep saying long bonds until you're wrong, which means you will be wrong eventually
  • ap
    andrew p.
    27 August 2018 @ 05:22
    Australian ten year notes. I agree with Raoul, and I think the better places to express this is in Australian Ten year notes, Aud, and Australian Banks. From a trend perspective, I like to use, 21, 51 200 and 400 daily, and 5 21 and 51 weekly. The Australian bonds are long 7/7 on a trend perspective and a potential breakout on the daily chart at 97.40 taking the hi in august 2016 to the next hi close. The AUD is also short 7/7 on a trend perspective, with a trend break at 7640. Australian Banks, CBA and Westpac are short 7/7. This picture is a perfect expression with the seriously short bond market, as per COT. Australia's is set up for the perfect storm.. slowing China, deflation correction or crash Banking Royal Commission. Trade with the trend friends and short $AUD, long AUS 10 year bonds, and short Australian Banks,
  • MM
    Mike M.
    26 August 2018 @ 21:29
    Thank You Raoul. It's great to have a periodic overview from 30,000 feet. Often times on a daily or weekly basis, one gets caught up in the minutia, and lose perspective on the Big Picture. To have someone with your background give their overview of things is extremely helpful. Please continue to do these very helpful and timely segments.
  • SS
    Suresh S.
    25 August 2018 @ 16:52
    Perhaps others will know this question and would appreciate if they can share it. Where do I get the data to construct the 10yr-2yr swap % or is there a website I can track this chart, if yes what's the website?
    • HS
      Howard S.
      25 August 2018 @ 21:34
      https://ycharts.com/indicators/210_year_treasury_yield_spread
  • TH
    Tomi H.
    25 August 2018 @ 14:11
    Raoul has some good points. Of course you never know what's going to happen and it's all about reacting not forecasting, but this is one interesting take on what might happen and what you should do in case it does happen. Only small thing is that I don't agree with is buying calls on TLT. If you want delta exposure on TLT, why not just buy TLT and maybe place a stop somewhere? The case with options is that you are also getting vega exposure and when you are buying calls, you assume that the market makers are pricing options wrong (otherwise it doesn't make sense to pay for higher bid ask spread + volatility premium vs. just buying TLT or T-bond futures). I don't mean to insult anyone, but there's about 0 percent change that anyone of us is better at pricing options than market makers and it is ridiculous to even try to argue anything else since it's a highly competitive game with very intelligent people and computers involved in it. Just play the macro and forget options (unless you for some reason want to structure it as a credit call spread which is almost vega neutral).
  • RD
    Ravi D.
    24 August 2018 @ 22:47
    whats the case for a dollar rally? Fed came across very dovish today (24/Aug/18) -i appreciate the thesis is long term. Also what about the 3D's in the US? debt, deflation and demographics - none of which are bullish for the dollar?
    • DR
      David R.
      26 August 2018 @ 23:32
      Greetz frm Singapore. Indeed Fed was very dovish, and today IRA (institutional risk analyst) reports the Fed is secretly looking to halt its balance sheet runoff. Just a dead cat bounce coming for USD in reaction to the dollar collapse since USD topped on Aug 15... Dollar made a FAILED breakout; as I expected/posted previously. Dollar is UBER bearish. Dollar to continue falling overall against everything except maybe yen. Dollar bulls will be crushed after the next small bounce. EURUSD should drop to 115's before surging to 120's and higher.
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    24 August 2018 @ 18:51
    Markus B. knows his subject very well indeed. Excellent comments. I make my living owning and trading physical copper and other base metal companies as well as speculating in the juniors. It's fascinating following the differences in the terminal markets, miners and the scrap prices. Raoul's analysis may be correct in the short term but, 2019-2022 we will be in deficit in the red metal. Even high quality new mine finds (there aren't many) will need $3 copper to put a shovel in the ground. Of course, that material won't even be available for at least ten years due to the under investment that Markus correctly points out. Otherwise, there will be no EV revolution, batteries, etc..
  • MB
    Markus B.
    24 August 2018 @ 07:33
    Raoul, some food for thought regarding copper and other industrial metals. I have no reason to dispute your short/mid term view. However, there is a notable discrepancy currently between industrial metals where the price fixing is determined on spot markets (i.e. copper, zinc, nickel) and other industrial metals where prices are agreed on a contractual basis (i.e. vanadium, chrome, steel rebar etc). The later point to continued robust demand. Regarding copper and base metals: stepping back a little there is a very important trend to observe. Until 2011/12 the biggest investment cycle in the mining industry took place and contributed to temporary oversupply and a price decline. Note that the investment volume collapsed since 2011 and there is very little sign of a recovery. The knock on effect will be that the world in all likelihood will face a shortage of supply in most raw materials over the next decade or two (unless demand is going to crater which all things considered is possible but not highly probable). You already see structural deficits emerging in multiple raw materials (copper deficit in 2018 is expected to be 2 % of global supply). In the current uncertain climate NO mining company will consider significant further expansion and it is in particular visible in the copper market. The development pipeline is dry for years to come. At some point fundamental factors will start to play a bigger role and these do not indicate copper at new lows. One should keep an open mind to a scenario where actually the opposite could happen and we will not see new lows rather than fast accelerating prices to the up. Just food for thought.
  • PS
    Paul S.
    24 August 2018 @ 03:11
    "Copper new all time lows" - not sure anyone left to produce at those prices in 2018
    • CH
      Chris H.
      24 August 2018 @ 04:15
      Sensationalism at its finest.
  • CH
    Chris H.
    23 August 2018 @ 23:54
    The Mauldin for Millennialls
  • CS
    Carlo S.
    23 August 2018 @ 21:39
    Great piece Raoul. How do you see the JPY performing against the USD short, medium, and long term? Thanks. Carlo S.
  • DW
    Denny W.
    23 August 2018 @ 19:09
    Raoul, does the pension crisis, although still down the road, partially explain for the outperformance of big tech which has helped pull the SPY higher? Are pension fund managers so desperate to close the gap between demands and returns that they feel forced to keep chasing Amazon and friends higher?
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    23 August 2018 @ 16:35
    I have traded for 50 years and you featured me ‘Trader vic” .... i believe your correct in your call on bonds ,as growth in Europe, China ,japan ,and other emerging markets are slowing. I believe inflation will slow in the US headline number ,and the Fed’s rasing rates before the US election is suicide for Powell if something goes wrong , he’ll be castigated by Trump. September will not have an increase and growth will be slowing in the US . My issue and humble suggestion is if you read ‘Technical Analysis of stock trends” it has nothing to do with the Long term charts you show?? They are based on cyclical bull and bear mkts not 20 or 30 year pictures. Just a thought for you to ponder?!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 18:08
      Thanks Victor. I have used very log term charts over the last 30 years and I find they help me tremendously. Many people use charts on 5 mins chart etc or hourly and for me they dont work. Horses for courses, as they say in England.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      24 August 2018 @ 23:42
      Vic you are my most respected trader out there. May I ask why you don't think the classical charting principles can't work in the longer term? Have you done any statistical analysis or would you mind showing us your reasoning?
  • NG
    Nick G.
    23 August 2018 @ 15:12
    As someone who was a professional bond trader, I think I should clear up a point that keeps on being brought up in these comments and which might mislead some non-professionals: that there are record short open positions in 10s and 30s. The COT report was disaggregated in 2009 into Asset Managers, Leveraged Funds, Other reportables and Non reportables. Asset managers are net at record LONGS, the reportables are a basic wash, while Leveraged Funds are at record shorts. Now, that applies to futures positions only. The cash component against those positions is unknown and unknowable. In a period of wide differences between yields in Europe and the US (the most liquid bonds) it would be natural for the Leveraged Funds to be running very large carry positions, which would need to be hedged with futures. This would explain the short in that category. Also remember that as bond issuance in all sectors increases (as there is more debt in the world, there are more bonds), it is perfectly natural for the size of the hedge to be larger and larger. This would mean that those positions are not "squeezable" unless the basis changes massively, which is very, very unlikely. And even then the net effect on the market might be minimal, unless there are massive credit events. This does not take away from the basic arguments that Raoul made about direction of markets, I just thought it important to clarify a potential source of misunderstanding by non-pros.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 18:09
      Actually, to add some nuance, the asset management survey showing "cash"positions and others, suggest that they too are record short duration and/or underweight bonds by a record amount, as are households.
    • NG
      Nick G.
      23 August 2018 @ 21:05
      I would probably have no argument with your clarification, Raoul. As I said, it really changes very little to your analysis. Your argument boils down to deflation/slower growth/Fed overtightening, etc, all fundamental drivers. Prices would move your way even if everyone was overweight duration.
    • WW
      Wen W.
      24 August 2018 @ 22:00
      Hi Nick! What you're saying sounds very interesting but i can only understand half of it! Could further dummify it for me? - What does it mean when the cash positions are unknown and unknowable? -Could you explain why a carry trade between the US and EU requires to be net short in Treasury yields? I thought for a positive carry, we would require to borrow a low rate asset and lend a higher yield? The US has a higher interest rate then Europe shouldn't we be long the US?
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    23 August 2018 @ 15:10
    Before anyone else asks! Gold is not of macro interest to me right now. Im not long or short, so any views of gold would be without conviction so of little value... sorry gang.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    23 August 2018 @ 14:31
    Request: I agree Gold is probably lower then higher. Can you do a global macro analysis on Gold? Not interested in prediction as much as in logic, reasoning and framework for the Gold market. Thx
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    23 August 2018 @ 13:56
    Superb Raoul Pal. Class.
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    23 August 2018 @ 13:56
    Superb Raoul Pal. Class.
  • MB
    MATTHEW B.
    23 August 2018 @ 13:42
    Hi, As always Raoul doesn't disappoint - it's a great piece. However, I'm sure many viewers would appreciate his take on another commodity/currency, i.e., gold. Given his deflationary bust outlook what's his take on the precious metals? Cheers and keep up the good work. Matthew
  • HH
    Hall H.
    23 August 2018 @ 13:34
    Sorry, just don't believe technicals are good predictors of future price.
  • BC
    Brente C.
    23 August 2018 @ 12:43
    Raoul eloquently lays out the deflationary bear thesis in a way I've been hearing for at least 3 years, though he does it far better than most. Very convincing on the surface. I don't buy it, though. It greatly underestimates the "inflation at any cost" mindset of central planners as well as the impact of a continued populist political shift. Nothing is more inflationary than populist governments.
  • BC
    Brente C.
    23 August 2018 @ 12:43
    Raoul eloquently lays out the deflationary bear thesis in a way I've been hearing for at least 3 years, though he does it far better than most. Very convincing on the surface. I don't buy it, though. It greatly underestimates the "inflation at any cost" mindset of central planners as well as the impact of a continued populist political shift. Nothing is more inflationary than populist governments.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    23 August 2018 @ 08:25
    I'm leaning towards the point of view expressed here, it's just I don't really accept the idea that the way to play this is going long ten year ust's or TLT. I may be in he majority, but I see limited upside there; I also see many other ways of expressing a strong USD/deflationary outlook. I'd rather just short commodities, short EM currencies, and keep most of my cash savings in dollars.
  • sB
    sylvain B.
    23 August 2018 @ 07:44
    Hi Raoul, excellent presentation. how does your deflationist view tallies with your bullish view on India. do you pair a short MXEF Long MXIN, or do you get out of the Indian theme for the time being.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 10:33
      Yes, Im flat india right now.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    23 August 2018 @ 07:32
    IMO this is a 2019 story.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    23 August 2018 @ 05:40
    Long TLT. Done. 🙏😉
  • CH
    Connor H.
    23 August 2018 @ 04:36
    I can never understand why the dollar would go higher with the federal deficit/debt set to continue increasing as far as the eye can see. When the recession comes, our elected representatives will go into fiscal stimulation mode again, as in 2008/9, and really blow the debt up. The huge increase in supply of treasuries has to result in a corresponding decrease in price. More QE will greatly increase the dollar supply. In this scenario, why would the value of the dollar rise?
    • JJ
      Joe J.
      24 August 2018 @ 12:58
      Yeah I guess supply and demand no longer apply? With the deflationary forces at work ie baby boomers retiring, everyone is selling bonds. Looked at the latest tic data and that is showing net foreign governments selling. Who is buying all these bonds that are issued. It's a non-ending onslaught of supply every month. Something has to break right?
  • JC
    James C.
    23 August 2018 @ 02:12
    Well put together, but i'm not sure a lot of those chart patterns work on such a large timescale. I definitely agree with the sentiment of deflation and "watch the dollar" though.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    23 August 2018 @ 02:07
    As always - fantastic - thanks Raoul!!!!!!!!!
  • SM
    Sergio M.
    23 August 2018 @ 01:48
    I will work for Raoul Pal for free, anything you'd like ill buy a plane ticket to Spain no questions asked. This analysis is clean and so easy to understand thank you! The British accent also makes the information sound a lot more poetic its captivating.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    23 August 2018 @ 01:08
    Finally, some real stuff. Thanks Raoul.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    22 August 2018 @ 22:58
    Raoul, great stuff. May I ask a question, is it monthly charts that you are showing?...……….tia
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 02:12
      yes, in the main part
  • JQ
    Joseph Q.
    22 August 2018 @ 22:39
    Raoul this is why I subscribe to Real vision!! Excellent analysis!!
  • MM
    Mike M.
    22 August 2018 @ 20:47
    Excellent analysis and commentary. On your availability would like your take on gold if this macro picture firms up. Thank you in advance.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 02:12
      Lower then higher
    • JC
      James C.
      23 August 2018 @ 02:29
      +1 on Raoul's response. It gets smoked during the liquidity squeeze (i.e. now), then goes to the moon when the central bank reaction function kicks in.
  • PE
    Per E.
    22 August 2018 @ 20:12
    While I like the video, I could not disagree more. In order for a deflation scenario to play out, you are effectively betting on politicians and central bankers to show constraint when signs starts to appear. All evidence over the last 10 years point to the contrary..
    • SR
      Steve R.
      22 August 2018 @ 21:24
      Are you not considering the multi-year deflationary demographics cycle that is just starting to kick in?
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      22 August 2018 @ 22:36
      Powel might be a different animal. He is not a PhD from academia. He is a real world finance guy. I think he understands that ZIRP / NIRP has damaged capital allocation and capital formation and increased income inequality. Every one expects the Fed to have a knee jerk put in place when the SPX comes down. What if Powel places the strike price of this put way, way down? That is totally unexpected by the markets!
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      23 August 2018 @ 01:45
      Demographics, specifically millennial are bullish
    • SR
      Steve R.
      23 August 2018 @ 02:41
      But millenials don't have any money, nothing like compared to the baby boom generation. They are all up to their eyeballs in student and other debts. Plus, they don't know what a market downturn looks like, so I'd actually argue they are 'blindly bullish', which will change after the next crisis, rinse and repeat.
    • PE
      Per E.
      23 August 2018 @ 07:44
      Demographics are deflationary but will that outweigh the stimulus that I think will follow, I would not bet on it. The entire thesis is built on the fact that we can’t have a slowing economy and inflation at the same time, which has happened before. I think we will end up in a scenario when the central bank will have to choose between letting inflation run a little hot or depressing growth. Regardless if Powell is different, I doubt he will focus on inflation in that case. The majority of shale operators are CF negative at $65 per barrel. We have seen OPEC be successful by reducing supply over the last couple of years. $120 per barrel is more likely than $20 in my view.
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      23 August 2018 @ 17:13
      http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/05/demographics-growing-prime-working-age.html the demographics are deflationary line is riddled with misconceptions
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      23 August 2018 @ 17:13
      http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/05/demographics-growing-prime-working-age.html the demographics are deflationary line is riddled with misconceptions
    • BF
      Bret F.
      23 August 2018 @ 18:32
      QE is deflationary. Buybacks are deflationary in real world.... Just imagine if companies paid much better for Health insurance. Trillion buybacks or trillion in Health insurance paid .. hmmmm
  • VE
    Viktor E.
    22 August 2018 @ 20:12
    Interesting stuff, thanks! I believe it ties pretty well in with Brent Johnsons "Dollar Milkshake Theory" that he talked about in his last video? Liquidity will find its way to US financial markets and strengthen Dollar/Bonds/Equity and almost everything else will weaken..
    • MW
      Mike W.
      22 August 2018 @ 21:51
      I agree 100%
  • MS
    Mitchell S.
    22 August 2018 @ 19:30
    Hi, I was wondering why you prefer to use linear instead of semi-log graphs when showing very long series of data. Thanks. Mitch
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 02:13
      It just what works for me. I use log charts sometimes too
  • CB
    C B.
    22 August 2018 @ 19:09
    Story teller of the year!!
  • SC
    Sau C.
    22 August 2018 @ 19:03
    Convincing video, as is always the case with Rao and other perma bears but he's been bearish for at least 3-4 years now. "Big picture" framework continues to get bigger. One day, bears will be right.
    • SR
      Steve R.
      22 August 2018 @ 21:28
      It's best to be 2 years too early than 2 minutes too late. Remember the short vol ETF? Took a 6 year ride up the stairs, and a 6 hour ride down the elevator - to ZERO - end of ETF.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      23 August 2018 @ 05:38
      Sadly you’re wrong. Raoul called the last USD appreciation and knock on effects on oil and EM superbly and a few months ahead when oil was still over $100, he saw the setup and boldly predicted it would go to $30. He was mocked by many who got egg all over their faces shortly after.
  • TH
    Thomas H.
    22 August 2018 @ 18:47
    It will take a recession to cause deflation. I assume the federal budget deficit would swell to $2 million plus. I have a difficult time seeing deflation with this budget deficit. There will be deflation in the stock market as stock buy backs will prove to be a bad investment. How will interest rates go down if the government needs to finance this deficit? The Fed controls the short end of the curve.
    • DS
      David S.
      22 August 2018 @ 20:54
      Current 2018 US federal budget deficit estimate is $ 352 billion. I agree that stock buybacks are bad investments for the shareholders, but excellent for the executives who sell today and leave tomorrow. Borrowing money to buy overpriced stocks is even worse. DLS
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    22 August 2018 @ 18:46
    Unless I go long TNT ETF don’t know how I grow retirement portfolio. Thanks RVTV. Money well spent.
  • RP
    Ron P.
    22 August 2018 @ 17:55
    Amazing how logical & simple Raoul makes it seem. That's why there's only one Raoul Pal. And we are most fortunate to be privy to his commentary.
  • MB
    Max B.
    22 August 2018 @ 17:23
    Basic question...how do you purchase option contracts in the uk i.e. what platform/company can you use. New to options...
    • GF
      George F.
      22 August 2018 @ 23:29
      I don't know but an internet search showed iShares has etfs available in the UK. https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/297191/ishares-treasury-bond-20%20yr-ucits-etf-usd-(acc)-fund
    • EF
      Eric F.
      23 August 2018 @ 00:51
      I use Interactive Brokers Max. I'd highly recommend them as I find it's a pretty innovative platform and the fees seem to be very competitive.
    • MB
      Max B.
      23 August 2018 @ 16:42
      Thanks guys
  • NH
    Neil H.
    22 August 2018 @ 17:18
    another great video. here is my question. you seem to be very concerned about the amount of folks who have shorted the bond market, but do not seem concerned about how many folks are long the dollar. why is that?
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      22 August 2018 @ 22:39
      And the massive short position in Gold! Are the Dollar and Gold about to reverse?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 02:15
      The dollar positions are not nearly as big as the all time multi-standard deviation position in bonds and oil. Gold is only slightly negative. It saw short positioning for 5 years back in the 1990's bull market in the dollar.
  • HK
    Himali K.
    22 August 2018 @ 17:15
    Continually impressed with your keen insights Raoul.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    22 August 2018 @ 16:30
    Great commentary. Looking at the big charts and developing a hypothesis to explain the evolving charts is really the right way to do macro. Too many try to predict the future which is just not possible on a consistent basis. Missed one asset, Gold. Can gold rise if your strong dollar hypothesis is correct? Gold is tied more to real interest rates over the long term. These days it seems to be slave to the USD and specially the USD-JPY and USD-CNY cross. Would love a global macro chart analysis of Gold.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 August 2018 @ 02:16
      Gold will only rise when either the dollar weakens or more likely when the chances of policy reversals and QE rises... then it will explode.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    22 August 2018 @ 16:02
    $USD finished lower 5 days in a row...reversing the recent surge higher. Could the Dollar have topped? Time will tell, however, I think it is more of a possibility than many market participants anticipate, as nearly everything, including interest rate differentials, and a risk-off trade, has been in the Dollar's favor, yet the $USD is still below its 2015-2017 highs.
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      22 August 2018 @ 16:22
      In addition, the deflationary fears are rampant within the fed, with the last two busts fresh in their minds. This makes them err on the side of being behind the curve, than hike too much/fast.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    22 August 2018 @ 15:59
    make this video public!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    22 August 2018 @ 15:57
    Raoul, where have you discussed Spanish banks before?
    • tW
      tgwtom W.
      22 August 2018 @ 19:31
      European banks should be a worry for investors: Raoul Pal 5:06 PM ET Tue, 2 Feb 2016 CNBC https://cnb.cx/2w6vYlc
  • MK
    Michael K.
    22 August 2018 @ 15:52
    Looking good Raoul - sun did you well. Honest comment, just looking healthy.
  • SS
    Sean S.
    22 August 2018 @ 15:40
    Does oil is breaking much lower (and staying there for quite some time) balance out the Uranium super cycle narrative?
    • SS
      Sean S.
      22 August 2018 @ 16:39
      A bull run that is.
    • JV
      Jan V.
      22 August 2018 @ 20:38
      It might slow down the pace of Japanese restarts. This is important since Japan has the biggest short term impact on the demand side (until China takes over). I don't think low oil prices will derail the Chinese nuclear expansion (limiting air polution seems a top priority).
    • SS
      Sean S.
      23 August 2018 @ 07:54
      So coupled with what seems to be a contracting global growth/economy in the future (after this recession) and lower oil prices, should we wait until global growth steadies before investing in Uranium stocks?
  • my
    moy y.
    22 August 2018 @ 15:08
    love these Raoul
  • dj
    daniel j.
    22 August 2018 @ 14:24
    Just Great!
  • JS
    Jason S.
    22 August 2018 @ 14:19
    Good analysis. I don't agree with all Raouls views. But his view on a major short squeeze for treasuries/bonds looks spot on. I reckon we see the same thing for gold, as well. Markets have a habit of doing what the majority don't expect...EM's could also rally and Chinese currency could stabilise if we see a trade deal before US mid-terms. A possibility as Trump would want some more brownie points going into the elections for Republicans. China also wants to relieve some pressure from its currency/ stock market/economy. Massive short squeeze coming world-wide for everything, IMO.
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    22 August 2018 @ 14:06
    Straight talk, for a make believe economy.
  • NG
    Nick G.
    22 August 2018 @ 13:18
    I don't agree with some of what Raoul says in the video, but that is neither here nor there. My timings might be different. I might have more of an insight into why we do not have anywhere near record shorts in the bond market. None of that negates his primary argument. But his overall advice is very sound: buy calls in TLT. As he rightly says, it will hedge you. Your portfolio will not suffer and you will sleep much more soundly! At this level of vol it is almost stupid not to.
  • ss
    sid s.
    22 August 2018 @ 13:17
    love the charts Raoul. don't you think that the rise of China an industrial might with population of 1.5 billion and a massive infrastructure over capacity and their alliance with Russia with territory twice that of United states with most of world natural resources, add to that the Muslim world of 2 billion in desperate need for development that is gravitating toward China. put that together and you get a formidable alliance alters the comfortable narrative of the past 70 years dominated by the west and all equations: equities, bonds, currencies commodities.....a whole new world order forming right in front our eyes as you recently tweeted !?
  • SS
    Sam S.
    22 August 2018 @ 12:20
    Mr Pal, how do you see Gold playing out within the macro framework? How about parking cash in short term T-bills to take advantage of rising rates, but to stay nimble, thus having cash available? Excellent presentation!
  • RN
    Robert N.
    22 August 2018 @ 12:09
    I have watched both William White interviews on RV and additional ones outside of RV noting his general macro and "big picture" worries. Raoul's presentation also covers potential triggers for a "truly toxic phase" within the next year or two. I wonder if anyone has analysis of Dr Tim Morgan's predictions drawn from his SEEDS model predicated on the Energy Cost of Energy. His use of "prosperity" measures seems to accord with William White's preference of an OECD "well-being" metric. In his recent pieces Tim asserts "SEEDS puts scope for value destruction today at over $400tn, which should be treated as a (very approximate) order of magnitude of the extent to which asset values have to fall." None of the commenters on his site argue against his calculations and some refine his estimate of global debt to just short of $300 trillion by 2020. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ It would be great if RV interviewed Morgan and engaged with his calculations but, failing that, any pointer to counter-arguments would be much appreciated.
  • RI
    R I.
    22 August 2018 @ 12:04
    A head and shoulders top pattern... oh my, please god, no!
  • CC
    Chris C.
    22 August 2018 @ 11:28
    Good stuff as always Raoul!
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    22 August 2018 @ 11:25
    the arguments that inversion = 12-18 months before recession may be very wrong this time as the US and the globe is starting from the weakest starting points. US GDP is half of last cycle, debt is massive, consumer savings is limited, consumer is tapped out on credit, real rates already negative nearly everywhere in major markets, currencies are in chaos and so much more. Our best housing starts data in 2018 is at levels since 1960 where we were going into/out of recessions. Exactly what cushion is there for the US or the globe to last 18 months this time? I would like to know. Other recessions were generally event driven from something within the US. This time it looks global, with the same weakness everywhere.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    22 August 2018 @ 10:21
    IEF 7-10 bond etf.. have watched options most of 2018 never more than a few 100 open interest. There are some very large bets being made Sept. through Jan. 2019
  • BF
    Bret F.
    22 August 2018 @ 10:14
    Wonder if a little volatility is near. Cohen in big trouble. If election starts leaning to a Democratic win in house . Trump has started trying to run Powell. Does Powell raises rates. Does Trump really go nuts, that the Fed is his enemy. These things could shake world confidence???
  • JM
    John M.
    22 August 2018 @ 10:12
    Thank you Raoul! I love that you are not afraid to call it the way you see it. Considering the risk of a deflationary bust, it doesn’t hurt to take an umbrella along when there is a thirty percent chance of rain. I like your suggestion to buy inexpensive calls now. They will be expensive later, if interest rates fall as theorized. Short term I think the USD is about to correct but longer term a stronger USD is very possible and problematic for everyone. Making fewer USD available to the world is the definition of deflationary. I don’t understand why a reserve currency would do that. I also love my RVTV!
    • LP
      Lynn P.
      22 August 2018 @ 21:10
      I would love to see James Grant interview Jeffrey Snider and ask him your question.
  • VS
    Valeriy S.
    22 August 2018 @ 09:47
    Thank you for subtitles!

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