Oil’s Future: The Implications of Demand and Technology

Featuring Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tressis Gestion SGIIC takes us on quick-fire tour of the global oil market in which OPEC is fighting a losing battle with the forces of technological change and energy efficiency. Cheap, easy money and excess capital drove the demand dynamics of a higher oil price, but the transitory factors of synchronized global growth will be short lived. The geopolitics of oil will diminish with oil’s declining importance within the global energy matrix.

Published on
29 January, 2018
Topic
Oil, Monetary policy, Macro
Duration
24 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
72

Comments

  • WM

    Will M.

    1 2 2018 19:38

    5       0

    Overall a good presentation and some good points made. I do wonder why the link between lower prices and shale oil / multilateral drilling was not more exposed. The cap on the price will also be impacted by increased shale oil production which will be very attractive (especially in the US) at prices much above $60. I have been in the oil business for 40 years and back in the late seventies the prediction (with near certainty) was for $100 oil by 1990. By 2000 the view was oil would never get much above $30 - 40 in the next 10 years. By 2010 we were at Peak Oil and calamity was just around the corner......

    Suffice to say oil price prediction has little basis for certainty beyond a few quarters out. Oil will likely become of less consequence as we go into the future but it won't go away as a strategic resource. Additionally a few on the worlds biggest oil field and many of the oil provinces have peaked in production. At some point the new discoveries will simply not keep pace with anything like current demand. So there will be a Peak oil and its timing will be determined by price not driven by EVs or the Chinese. From my experience in the business it feels like we could easily see $30 again BUT I would be willing to take a long term bet that some day in my lifetime I will certainly see $150 oil.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    31 1 2018 18:25

    2       0

    Thought this was an excellent overview on Oil and found it to be quite helpful. I know this may be at odds with some other comments re the questions appearing on the screen, but I really like the presentation this way as it saves time from the camera having to go back and forth to the questioner. I listen to a lot of Podcasts, but have always enjoyed watching the RV segements.

  • DM

    Dan M.

    31 1 2018 03:37

    3       0

    Don't understand how China moving to a consumer economy is going to substantially reduce global oil demand. Global population growth and growing wealth in developing countries are going to require that the industrialization continues somewhere. We can't all just be consumers-somebody has to make it.

  • KF

    Ken F.

    30 1 2018 02:53

    8       0

    No Mention of the record inventory draw downs? Only monetary policy driven? or is OPEC responsible for the draw down?

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    30 1 2018 01:54

    2       0

    Oil is being pushed out of the transportation sector and is being replaced by electricity. Okay (?), but where is the base-load electricity coming from?

  • RM

    Robert M.

    29 1 2018 22:57

    3       0

    The point about efficiency taking 240 thousand bbls off the market and future technology (EVs) making oil price falls permanent is countered by Jevons paradox. Those efficiencies will make oil cheaper however that cheapness will restimulate demand for oil.

  • CS

    Christo S.

    29 1 2018 21:36

    11       11

    Have stopped listening after a few minutes. It makes no sence to listen to an economist who talks about oil.

  • RS

    Ryan S.

    29 1 2018 20:14

    0       0

    Interesting

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    29 1 2018 20:03

    1       0

    but otherwise a pretty concise delivery and message.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    29 1 2018 19:55

    1       0

    I would disagree with his statement that monetary policy basically drove the cycle after 2004; it was the demand from China and the strong urbanisation/industrialisation trend, at least for base metal

  • KB

    K B.

    29 1 2018 19:52

    13       4

    I would rather hear an industry insider like Art Berman talk about oil than an economist who doesn't focus explicitly on oil.

  • JC

    John C.

    29 1 2018 18:17

    1       0

    Good interview. Nice overview of the oil patch which was easy to understand and to see where we might go from here on out.

  • GF

    Gordon F.

    29 1 2018 16:17

    36       1

    I like these interviews, but it annoys me that I have to look at the screen to see the questions, as I just generally listen to them (I don't need to give a talking head full visual attention). Could you PLEASE have someone with a distinctly different voice ask the questions so I don't have to keep looking back to the screen, or simply having to guess what the question was by the speaker's comments. Often, by the time I realize that the brief silence indicates another question has been flashed to the screen, it is already gone.

  • LK

    Lyle K.

    29 1 2018 15:27

    8       2

    Two thumbs up for Daniel Lacalle, always like to see him on RV his $LMT call was a good one!

  • MG

    Mohamed G.

    29 1 2018 13:53

    3       0

    Good interview

  • PU

    Peter U.

    29 1 2018 13:22

    6       2

    very solid presentation

  • js

    jacob s.

    29 1 2018 11:28

    7       0

    Drop off 450,000 barrels a day? Ok...at that rate that's 1,642,500,000 over the next 10 years...the world consumes 30,000,000,000 barrels per year. Oil's not going anywhere.