Predicting the Next Crisis

Featuring Jim Rickards

Jim Rickards, a renowned author and the chief global strategist at Meraglim, is now predicting another global financial crisis. He explains why, and in so doing, reviews the unusual origins of his predictive analytics tool. He also explores complexity theory and Bayesian statistics. Filmed on July 12, 2018 in New York.

Published on
18 July, 2018
Topic
Monetary policy, Global Outlook, Recession, Financial System
Duration
37 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
168

Comments

  • TS

    Timothy S.

    1 8 2018 01:52

    1       2

    If Jim really was just trying to self promote then all he had to do was say he was bullish. Most people would rather believe than seek truth.

  • CM

    Carlos M.

    31 7 2018 10:12

    0       0

    I have found this interview very interesting! not sure why there is so much negativity in the community.....

  • TP

    Tom P.

    27 7 2018 10:14

    1       1

    I don't always agree with his style, hyperbole or views. But's he's another good contributor to RV. Thanks

  • fT

    forecast T.

    26 7 2018 15:15

    1       0

    3RD WAVE IS THIS! Open Think or Swim, turn up Level II quotes and show bid / ask and volumes and expand to show full scale integers not 10. ... but 10.72. Dump a screen recording software over it, and feed that data to some type of python picture numerical alphanumeric image to text reader. Let the software dump the numbers into excel, albeit seconds delayed, and make predictions. Usually we can spot where prices float (toward the whale buying or selling short) but some cheap software that's jpeg alphanumerics to .csv with a formula to detect where price goes

  • fT

    forecast T.

    26 7 2018 15:07

    2       0

    Why don't people like this guy? Seems he's rational, and he's not wrong. 2009 did introduce a lost decade. I myself, prefer a deflationary environment. Prices out here in California, like food and commodities, have risen over 100% since the recession yet the price of a financial analyst from top universities (UCLA, USC out here) is barely '08 -'09 wage rates, sometimes low as $43,000. Might as well become a server at McDonalds. To me , that describes his long term depression economics better than two graphs. The fact that top university talents as cheap as community college or a C-rated school (cal state university system) 10 years on is 1 of many of thousands of examples of this lost decades behavioral affects - hiring decisions

  • DR

    Dick R.

    25 7 2018 04:11

    3       1

    Is he still connected to Agora Financial? If yes, deposit immediately in File 13, otherwise known as The Appropriate Receptacle.

    There may not be a Superman, but there sure is kryptonite, and its address is 808 St. Paul St., 9th Circle of Hell, Maryland My Maryland, Doobie Doobie Doo.

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    24 7 2018 08:42

    4       5

    Just wondering...do guests pay RV to come on? Makes a lot of sense judging by this interview

  • DH

    Daniel H.

    24 7 2018 05:58

    1       0

    I love listening to Jim and thinking about what he says. But I do wonder about his AI statements. The biggest change in AI is that we now have big iron and data farms that were not available 30 years ago. And it is well known that if you add another variable to fit your data, you get a better fit. So time will tell whether Raven is like the models that led to the LTCM debacle. I wonder if Jim, who was involved in that case, has made sure his tool is inoculated against that kind of problem.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    23 7 2018 09:21

    5       1

    don't have him back please. "Bearish on stocks" then claims gold is doing fairly well because he's been pitching since 1900 per ounce. "I do everything different from people on wall street" .. Massive egotistical/narcissist clown

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    22 7 2018 18:32

    8       1

    Legend in his own mind. Heard his babble for years. Cut my losses and ran quick. Sorry Jim, I mean no disrespect.

  • WH

    W H.

    22 7 2018 17:17

    2       0

    Look at JPY/gold. Amazing track. Does that mean the Chinese are pegging the yen to gold? Uh, probably not. No more Wizard of Oz b/s please.

  • TH

    Tamas H.

    22 7 2018 12:23

    4       1

    90% of this is self promotion, should have been cut out, could have asked more about macro (talking about Raven, the RV audience would have benefited from hearing the story of a certain Felix Somary..)

  • SO

    Sercan O.

    21 7 2018 15:06

    4       1

    Honest question... Can someone let us know why we should pay attention to him? What did he predict correctly in the past that gives him credibility?

  • RP

    Reinaldo P.

    21 7 2018 14:47

    3       2

    Most of the comments are the evidence of how hard it is for short term traders to bear more than one different scenario on their head, understand how to play the long game while taking advantages short term even with contradicting rationale... and above all, they reflect the lack of humble for listening to analysis even when you disagree with them and judge them as for the elaboration without bias.

  • WM

    William M.

    21 7 2018 13:26

    6       0

    I have all of, and also enjoyed, Jim's books. I am sympathetic to most of his arguments and believe he does have the experience and intellect to be a quality forecaster. His points about debt and depression are spot on, there has been little normal recovery, what recovery there is has been heavily driven by debt driven spending.

    However I do find his self promotion tiresome. He is of course very aware of this reputation but just doesn't care of course. I would note that Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics appears to be way ahead on the artificial learning topic and Martin is most certainly NOT into self promotion.

  • ts

    thomas s.

    20 7 2018 23:59

    1       1

    His comment about a monkey being right 50% of the time is probably correct 50% of the time

  • XS

    Xin S.

    20 7 2018 20:50

    2       0

    This interview is the most controversal one. 25% of negative rating. that is very interesting.

  • KA

    Konstantine A.

    20 7 2018 14:32

    0       0

    And why is he bullish on EUR? :)

  • SS

    Sam S.

    20 7 2018 13:10

    8       0

    He certainly speaks well and connects the dots he's talking about. Best part, all the comments below both for and against. Getting us talking and thinking is the Real Vision here. I'm enjoying it all.

  • CH

    Colin H.

    20 7 2018 10:47

    14       1

    If you've seen one Jim Rickards interview you've seen them all.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    20 7 2018 01:48

    13       2

    Yawn...he’s a running infomercial now. Quit listening half way through.

  • WH

    W H.

    19 7 2018 23:15

    2       0

    Better than I had anticipated. Thought the guy was just clickbait. But, he is wrong about the gold/sdr thing. SDR is just a dollar basket, better than DXY and not as good as JPM effective indexes. Correlations with USD and commodities and gold are evolving, sure, but to say that one country is managing a trading range is using the appearance of coincidence to promulgate a conspiracy theory. Which is clickbait.

  • mx

    markettaker x.

    19 7 2018 22:59

    8       2

    Some interesting stuff here but I have to agree with everyone else that Rickards' shtick wears thin pretty quick and we can get this content elsewhere. Not for RV, in my view. Get more of the true quiet finance insiders like James Aitken etc.

  • KB

    Keith B.

    19 7 2018 22:18

    11       0

    What’s perhaps missing here and getting few people winded up is a good ol’ fashioned disclaimer: Jimmy’s a pro pundit, who makes about 10x cock-sure predictions a year with expectation that he may be right about half of the time; the other half, no biggie. He’s an advisor, entrepreneur, book writer and an all-around hussler; not a money manager. Having established that, it’s easy to sit back and enjoy, as one cannot fault him for parroting the mainstream narrative or street consensus; indeed, he does swing for the fences, which makes him interesting hearing and reading every time.

  • DS

    David S.

    19 7 2018 18:30

    3       0

    T S. - We asked RVTV to provide more interviews and different content. It is interesting that 368 viewers gave a thumbs-up. Your research and sources are more in depth than mine. I would not have heard Mr. Rickards point of view without RVTV as my primary filter. The interview was not compelling to me, it was worth my time. DLS

  • RN

    Robert N.

    19 7 2018 17:05

    9       0

    As another (retired) person with relevant IT background, I heard the speaker mention data analytics, machine learning, AI, neural networks, frequentist statistics, Bayesian probability, complex adaptive systems, Watson and many more. My buzzword bingo card would be almost complete had he included quantum computing, AGI and transhumanism. It would be interesting to put him together with Taleb for probability debunking of economist models and Dave Snowden for complex adaptive systems (CAS/Cynefin) applied to anthrocomplexity and weak signal detection counter-terrorism. Might be one way to overcome the current Twitter hostility between Taleb and Snowden upsetting peacemakers who want them to consider the overlaps in their approaches to complexity.
    Meanwhile, an update by psychology professor Jerry Kroth could help Rickards appreciation of the collective psychology component of Raven and assist him with some newly discovered background of his CIA friends. https://youtu.be/ihnqSyUF8pY?t=81

  • my

    moy y.

    19 7 2018 13:33

    3       1

    This guy was creating tons of FUD for cryptos before the run up in 2017. So i don't listen to his crap

  • CS

    Christopher S.

    19 7 2018 12:35

    7       1

    I really like checking in with Jim every few months or so. Some of his predictions are spot on, others are off the mark. I like to balance out my influences between people who make actuate predictions, and people who point out the logical fallacies of people making predictions - like Taleb, Kahneman. That helps me both be active in pressing the button and making the trade, while at the same time keeping a check on myself and being aware I might simply be allowing myself to be fooled by randomness.

  • AL

    Andrew L.

    19 7 2018 12:31

    15       0

    Jim Rickards has always been a good promoter of his own narrative. There certainly is an aspect of snake-oil salesman that comes through. I am a software developer with experience in business analytics, data mining and natural language processing and neural networks and my BS indicator started exploding at the beginning when he starts talking about "fuzzy" systems and mentioning IBM Watson. Watson has always been standard methods wrapped up in a massive load of hype, there is nothing special about it except for the marketing narrative IBM has attached to it. Both of these references worried me, throw in the CIA narratives and you have a witches brew of obfuscatory, magical, secret sauce, insider knowledge BS hype.

    With all of that said, I have to admit changing my mind as he described further the system he has developed. (Surely he is not writing the code but guiding the process.) What he describes in detail does not sound like BS at all. When describes his use of Bayesian inference that quells my worries about fuzzy systems and he characterizes its use and benefits accurately. The neural net part also is reasonable. And in-fact the use of IBM Watson APIs for natural language processing, though nothing extraordinary in the industry, is one of the strongest toolset they offer. I have seriously looked into using myself and can see using it for what he describes. I could see a system like this "working" technically. How accurate it is? Who knows.

  • SG

    Stelios G.

    19 7 2018 12:21

    13       2

    Standard Jim Rickards.

    Has RV run out of quality content so quickly?

    What's next?
    Promoting "unique investment opportunities with 1123% expected returns"?

    Disappointing!

  • MB

    Markus B.

    19 7 2018 11:36

    1       0

    Jim, as a person of such experience and insight you can do better than that, much better.

  • PJ

    Paul J.

    19 7 2018 10:45

    11       5

    As a mathematician I find this man incredibly insulting. These subjects, complexity theory, Bayesian Statistics and neutral that he claims to use take years of experience to fully understand and use. For him to sit in front of the camera and spurt out this rat crap must take some nerve on his part.

  • AR

    Alex R.

    19 7 2018 10:12

    11       0

    Funny how many commentators here cannot objectively separate the person and the argument. So what if you don't like this guy, I don't like him either. But discounting his opinion because you don't like the guy is dumb, especially if you have opposing views. You always want to take a deep look at the arguments of the other side to avoid confirmation bias.

  • WB

    William B.

    19 7 2018 06:05

    2       4

    Another Richards gem...

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    19 7 2018 05:40

    12       0

    Sprott, Rule, Rickards...it's all about the Sell Sell Sell.
    Too bad.

  • BC

    Burton C.

    19 7 2018 04:50

    12       0

    Rickards self promotion "CIA shtick" get's old, at least for me. Having read his books its gotten hard to stomach. The middle half of the interview was painful to get through. In the end I thought it interesting his comments on China sitting on a gold pile for the next crisis. It would have been useful if he had given us his opinion how they plan on using it.

  • GO

    Gary O.

    19 7 2018 04:04

    0       1

    TMI.

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    19 7 2018 02:51

    3       3

    No useful information.

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    19 7 2018 02:48

    7       4

    Never trusted Rickards. Seems far to slick for me. And who still believes Al-Quada did 9/11?

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    19 7 2018 02:48

    3       5

    Never trusted Rickards. Seems far to slick for me. And who still believes Al-Quada did 9/11?

  • sm

    sam m.

    19 7 2018 01:39

    2       8

    mkkko.kkk..kkkkkk.kkkokkkkkokkkkokkkkkkkk unimig-k oily

  • SD

    S D.

    18 7 2018 23:11

    9       2

    Rickards is always worth listening to, imho, mainly because he's an independent thinker. Sure, he's said some of this before but so what? These are big ideas and the China gold-SDR peg is huge.

  • DS

    David S.

    18 7 2018 22:38

    5       0

    Regardless of how many days Woody Allen worries about dying, it will happen. There will be a next economic crisis, but Mr. Rickards arguments are less compelling than most of the of the interviews on RealVisionTV. Time is merely duration. Time does not exist in itself. The future does not exit to be discovered before it happens. Although better than the entrails of animals or tea leaves, Mr. Rickards predictive skills seem only marginally better. DLS

  • PW

    Phil W.

    18 7 2018 22:14

    11       1

    WOW. could not finish video ……………..Sorry

  • JG

    Joseph G.

    18 7 2018 22:05

    2       0

    The Raven concept is interesting and the notion of creating a neural network analysis of Big Data with AI programming which essentially learns from trial and error is exciting but in its infancy as a method. Unfortunately for all of us the coming financial calamity will happen because of Black Swan events which by their very nature are random and unpredictable. The most Raven will be able to do is learn from the event like the rest of us!

  • TS

    T S.

    18 7 2018 21:47

    13       3

    Gents,
    There is nothing new here from Jim. He's said all of this on different interviews and podcasts over the past months/year. I expect something deeper from RealVision than a rehash of information I can get for free elsewhere and have heard already. Take a look at the interview here in May https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/search-results/?swpquery=jim+rickards Exact same topics and stories.

  • JE

    James E.

    18 7 2018 21:46

    5       2

    Jim makes a few assumptions near the end about central banks needing bailing out. The Fed is a long way from that situation. Japan is operating last time I looked.

  • DS

    David S.

    18 7 2018 21:32

    4       1

    The output gap from chart 1 is meaningless, except for hyperbole. There is no cause and effect or even statistical linkage that the economy should perform at any historical growth rate. Even the gap itself, as shown, depends on the time frame chosen. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    18 7 2018 21:17

    0       0

    Please quote source of John Maynard Keynes defining depression as quoted. I see quotes where he talks about the Great Depression in reference to the 1930s, but nothing about GDP growth below the trend line. Thanks, DLS

  • TH

    Tyler H.

    18 7 2018 20:33

    19       2

    Rickards can be a very interesting economic thinker but he should really stop pretending he has invented a crystal ball, if he really has invented a quantitative strategy based on 'Watson' and 'CIA tech' with an actual edge why is he not trading it with billions of dollars and making performance fees?

    If there is anything genuinely useful to be gleaned from this video it's that many people desperately want certainty about the future and an easy edge and are willing to believe a self-promoting charlatan that promises to provide them with both.

  • BP

    Brandon P.

    18 7 2018 19:38

    16       1

    Jim gets a lot of flack because of his newsletter marketing team's tactics, his seemingly "broken record" stance on gold, and the fact that he is on TV. All rightfully so, the aforementioned are all distractions from his primary message: derivatives are rampantly out of control, risk is growing in exponential fashion, and as history has shown countless times, gold is where the world's wealth is preserved for the long haul.

    Keep spreading the good message, Jim! And make sure to mention the fact that nobody knows when it will happen, including yourself. Humility is reputation's best friend.

  • AD

    A D.

    18 7 2018 19:15

    4       0

    Product they put together for the CIA helped identify terrorist's networks insider trading before the fact- that much is clear. What does Raven help identify- I am not clear after 20 mins sales pitch and a jamboree of buzzwords. I thought Raven's purpose was to "crystal ball" the complex capital markets system- what am I missing? He mentions a number of indicators they track- care to throw RVTV viewers a bone Mr. Rickards?

  • DD

    Daniel D.

    18 7 2018 18:39

    6       0

    I'm not sure if it's important whether I agree with him or his views or not. I find his discussion very thought provoking and if I'm still thinking about it a few days later, I know it made an impression on me other than casual entertainment. I find no offense that interviewees are excited and want to talk about their latest project, stock, trade, theory, etc. That's human nature. It's not as if they are being paid big money for an appearance/speech.

  • CD

    Chris D.

    18 7 2018 18:39

    5       2

    15 min of RV worthy content 20 min investor presentation selling Raven. Jim puts out some interesting ideas but difficult to take seriously when it turns into a sales pitch. How did time at the CIA help me to understand the next crisis and what was the trigger for the next crisis? QT and increasing interest rates in a high debt environment is not new news.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    18 7 2018 17:57

    8       3

    Some folks just want to see the Mona Lisa. Some folks want to know what it means. Jim paints the picture, tells you what it means, and then takes you on a walk through the countryside, showing you what plants and minerals are needed to make the paint. Most folks can't appreciate the nuance.

  • bm

    brian m.

    18 7 2018 17:47

    6       2

    I can't Take Jim seriously after watching his ridiculous interview with "Mr Gold"

  • DT

    Douglas T.

    18 7 2018 17:42

    7       1

    Artificial Intelligence is a misnomer; there is nothing stupider or less aware than a computer. The idea that these prodigous mimicks are intelligent is an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. However, what JR is talking about are legitimate and useful mathematical techniques for augmenting big data and complexity analysis. In other words, AI can assist human intelligence, but can't replace it. There is also good reason to doubt that complex sytems will ever become fully predictable.

  • SH

    Scott H.

    18 7 2018 16:46

    6       1

    Jim's claim that the Chinese are pegging Gold to SDR has no validity. The SDR basket is approx 42%USD, 32%EUR, 11% RMB , 7.5% Yen and 8%GBP. So if we work on the premise Gold up USD down or visa versa, given the basket is all but half USD and half other major currencies of course if XAUUSD is in a 150 USD range as it has been, it will be in a similar even tighter range against the SDR basket.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    18 7 2018 16:41

    4       4

    Scary
    He could be right. If I thought for a moment that the Fed had a clue I’d blow this off. However I don’t.
    Yes he’s selling his book, what’s new?
    I wish he’d talked more about actionable trades.
    Maybe that’s too much to ask for.
    Have him back!
    Thanks RVTV

  • GF

    George F.

    18 7 2018 16:40

    2       3

    Snopes: September 11 Put Call were the stocks of various airlines shorted just before 9/11?

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/put-paid/

  • LT

    Lucas T.

    18 7 2018 16:32

    3       2

    Really great interview with some points I had not thought of.

    The gold SDR things is really interesting along with the reasoning behind the next liquidity event being exponentially worse than the past. We all know the trend of worse and worse panics, but he put it in a very clear way.

  • PD

    Peter D.

    18 7 2018 14:54

    39       2

    Rickards alternates between being one of the top economic thinkers and ... with peddling utter BS.

    In this case, the first five minutes of this interview and the last five, are pretty good.

    But the middle part, where Rickards talks about his "work with the CIA," and his latest "Raven" project (which leverages AI, big data, analytics, computer modelling, Watson and all those other buzzwords) is essentially a rings hollow to the Austrian economics community and to anyone with common sense.

    Rickards' efforts to play the "I am an insider with CIA connections" made him look particularly absurd when those "connections" led him to emphatically predict that the US would attack North Korea imminently.

    This despite the fact that anyone with Google would know that China had extended a security guarantee to North Korea, and that there was zero chance that a US attack would occur.

    The takeaway is this: trust Rickards when he writes about monetary policy.
    Disregard pretty much everything else.

    A final note: Rickards' insight about a possible SDR/gold peg is an example of the interesting ideas that he highlights. This idea is not fully baked (the variation is large and the time series (18 or so months) is far from conclusive. But the idea is new and worth considering.

    Real Vision should get this guy back again soon....to talk about that one theme.

  • KS

    Kim S.

    18 7 2018 14:40

    3       0

    Has he been a bear for a few years? Yes, with good reason perhaps. Predicting a huge shift a few years early or late is being wrong. Hayek predicted the 1920s crash a few years early, but for all the right reasons and still with more accuracy than everyone that disbelieved him. Everything that can't go on forever (in this case, debt expansion) will eventually stop.

  • SH

    Scott H.

    18 7 2018 13:54

    18       6

    JR, waffling on about neural networks, machine learning, Watson, Bayesian stats etc. Sorry RV but I just don't find any of this credible.

    JR makes aways makes a ton of predictions, which most have us heard so many times; Gold to 10,000, the coming dollar collapse, the coming depression, the coming stock market collapse and so on. Fear sells books I guess.

    If all these predictions are a result of his computer model, then I hope the investors in his forecasting company/model have deep pockets.

  • RK

    Robert K.

    18 7 2018 13:39

    7       0

    Hard to fight the central banks but it's a noble fight. The current market is a crowd of addicted junkies and the timing part of the so needed healthy correction seems almost impossible.

  • SC

    Sau C.

    18 7 2018 13:35

    4       0

    Bears will definitely be right....one of these days.

  • BK

    Brian K.

    18 7 2018 12:54

    4       1

    Not sure why he always says central banks around the world will run out of ammunition because of a lack of confidence. If we hit the end of the credit cycle I can see central banks printing much more with ease.

  • MS

    Martin S.

    18 7 2018 12:49

    3       7

    The same story every time.

  • JJ

    JJ J.

    18 7 2018 12:45

    4       4

    The perennial bear...

  • JS

    John S.

    18 7 2018 10:51

    24       12

    A rehash of everything Rickards has been talking about for many months. Plus of course the inevitable self promotion

    The only new and interesting topic was the Chinese pegging gold to the SDR. He gave this minimal airtime. Please RVTV, find someone who has analysed the implications of what appears to be a significant development in the international monetary system.