Risks & Reward in a Tri-Polar World

Featuring Jay Pelosky

Are populism, central banking, and high tech fragmenting the world? Jay Pelosky, Co-Founder of TPW Investment Management lays out his thesis of a world splintering into three divergent spheres — North America, Europe, and Asia. Pelosky also unpacks what he believes to be the critical implications for investors. Filmed on October 19, 2018 in New York.

Published on
5 November, 2018
Duration
32 minutes
Rating
59

Comments

  • AT

    Arun T.

    11 11 2018 10:06

    0       0

    Why am I reminded of Oceania, Eurasia and East-Asia?

  • HH

    HODL H.

    10 11 2018 05:37

    1       1

    Good video but this guy should look at Chinese tech financial statements and then say they look legit. Thanks bye

  • CN

    Charles N.

    7 11 2018 22:51

    0       0

    Very interesting take on the global situation. I do struggle to see evidence of integration in Europe as electorates are progressively pushing in the opposite direction. Merkel on the way out and Macron largely talking to himself

  • LG

    Lance G.

    7 11 2018 22:02

    0       0

    Excellent!

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    6 11 2018 23:21

    1       1

    The Chinese are very savy. The idea that they are surprised by American push back at their systematic growth at the expense of the American tax payer is a weak idea. They Chinese knew this day was coming, they have a plan A and a plan B for every possible option, but the idea that America has driven them to diversify is not "original and independent" thinking. Other wise, I thought this was a useful piece.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    6 11 2018 21:26

    0       0

    Good luck

  • AP

    Armin P.

    6 11 2018 13:48

    2       0

    Great RV video, feels like some non-polarized views (although interesting, especially Steve Bannon) had not been broadcasted here in a long time (taking a quick break from the “US has been ripped off by China”, “EU is for nothing”, “EM is dead”, “China is screwed”). Taking into account a changing world and how to financially position for it using a Tri-polar world/3Ts framework is an interesting way of structuring many different but questions remain: (1) How likely are we to see such a world emerge? (2) How long would it last? (3) How will those 3 regions really integrate themselves?

    While the financial global convergence seems baked in for late 2019/early 2020, I think the 3-region world might be too bullish. On the 3rd issue posed above (1) EU currently has negative sentiment but still has had a long history of regional integration, which originally stemmed from a common desire to “unite” (2) Is the rest of Asia really pumped about the idea of being more and more integrated with China? By the way, has China declared it wanted to exclusively integrate more with Asia (to me, China just wants to keep going with OBOR, full force in Africa, and maybe do more trade with the European now). It is true however that the last few weeks have seen historical state visits like China/Japan (3) Is the U.S really going regional full on (although it could if it wanted -https://twitter.com/timdartnell/status/1030681607747715074)? Certain current issues (South China see involvement, potential help to re-militarize Central Europe, etc) show that it is unclear that the U.S. really wants to let go entirely out of every region.

    Finally, I am struggling to see the edge of the EU as a regulator in the Internet/A.I. race.

  • DP

    David P.

    6 11 2018 01:16

    2       3

    From a geostrategic stand point, European countries have long become a dependancy of the US, from a military, informational and cultural standpoint.
    Comparing them with China, or even the US does not make sense. Would they have their own internet platforms, self sufficient defense industry, and not 50 % of their music/movies coming from the US, it would be different. But they don't.

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    5 11 2018 23:51

    0       0

    who are the ppl that thumbed down? comments from them would be good to see

  • TK

    Tyler K.

    5 11 2018 22:57

    4       0

    IMO Asian countries are too worried about China to integrate with China. And European countries are growing increasingly antagonistic towards each so disintegration seems likely rather than integration.

  • DS

    David S.

    5 11 2018 18:45

    0       0

    Since you use ETFs as your investment vehicle, it would be interesting to hear your comments on the liquidity of ETFs in major downturn. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    5 11 2018 15:34

    9       4

    Excellent follow-up. Your Tri-Polar World perspective helped me add context to the many changes in the world since your first interview. With the disruptive effects of American isolationism, America is pushing Europe and the rest of the world toward China. European exporters, especially Germany, could be caught in a US/China trade war. New international banking systems are being set up. Many countries are seeing that their interests are no longer identical with American interests. A secondary perspective using a bi-polar world - everyone except North America - and its effect may show an additional level of investment insight at the ETF level. DLS

  • AJ

    Average J.

    5 11 2018 14:13

    0       0

    Splinternet concept is interesting. Wonder if will be just 2, or perhaps more....