Risks & Reward in a Tri-Polar World

Published on
November 5th, 2018
Topic
Monetary policy, Macro, Emerging markets
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit

Risks & Reward in a Tri-Polar World

The Expert View ·
Featuring Jay Pelosky

Published on: November 5th, 2018 • Duration: 32 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Monetary policy, Macro, Emerging markets

Are populism, central banking, and high tech fragmenting the world? Jay Pelosky, Co-Founder of TPW Investment Management lays out his thesis of a world splintering into three divergent spheres — North America, Europe, and Asia. Pelosky also unpacks what he believes to be the critical implications for investors. Filmed on October 19, 2018 in New York.

Comments

  • AT
    Arun T.
    11 November 2018 @ 10:06
    Why am I reminded of Oceania, Eurasia and East-Asia?
  • HH
    HODL H.
    10 November 2018 @ 05:37
    Good video but this guy should look at Chinese tech financial statements and then say they look legit. Thanks bye
  • CN
    Charles N.
    7 November 2018 @ 22:51
    Very interesting take on the global situation. I do struggle to see evidence of integration in Europe as electorates are progressively pushing in the opposite direction. Merkel on the way out and Macron largely talking to himself
    • DS
      David S.
      9 November 2018 @ 22:15
      EEC can continue to integrate. Euro is the problem. Getting out of the Euro may will be difficult. Bankruptcy of a country is one of the only options. Oh what a tangled web they wove. DLS
  • LG
    Lance G.
    7 November 2018 @ 22:02
    Excellent!
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    6 November 2018 @ 23:21
    The Chinese are very savy. The idea that they are surprised by American push back at their systematic growth at the expense of the American tax payer is a weak idea. They Chinese knew this day was coming, they have a plan A and a plan B for every possible option, but the idea that America has driven them to diversify is not "original and independent" thinking. Other wise, I thought this was a useful piece.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    6 November 2018 @ 21:26
    Good luck
  • AP
    A P.
    6 November 2018 @ 13:48
    Great RV video, feels like some non-polarized views (although interesting, especially Steve Bannon) had not been broadcasted here in a long time (taking a quick break from the “US has been ripped off by China”, “EU is for nothing”, “EM is dead”, “China is screwed”). Taking into account a changing world and how to financially position for it using a Tri-polar world/3Ts framework is an interesting way of structuring many different but questions remain: (1) How likely are we to see such a world emerge? (2) How long would it last? (3) How will those 3 regions really integrate themselves? While the financial global convergence seems baked in for late 2019/early 2020, I think the 3-region world might be too bullish. On the 3rd issue posed above (1) EU currently has negative sentiment but still has had a long history of regional integration, which originally stemmed from a common desire to “unite” (2) Is the rest of Asia really pumped about the idea of being more and more integrated with China? By the way, has China declared it wanted to exclusively integrate more with Asia (to me, China just wants to keep going with OBOR, full force in Africa, and maybe do more trade with the European now). It is true however that the last few weeks have seen historical state visits like China/Japan (3) Is the U.S really going regional full on (although it could if it wanted -https://twitter.com/timdartnell/status/1030681607747715074)? Certain current issues (South China see involvement, potential help to re-militarize Central Europe, etc) show that it is unclear that the U.S. really wants to let go entirely out of every region. Finally, I am struggling to see the edge of the EU as a regulator in the Internet/A.I. race.
  • DP
    David P.
    6 November 2018 @ 01:16
    From a geostrategic stand point, European countries have long become a dependancy of the US, from a military, informational and cultural standpoint. Comparing them with China, or even the US does not make sense. Would they have their own internet platforms, self sufficient defense industry, and not 50 % of their music/movies coming from the US, it would be different. But they don't.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 November 2018 @ 01:53
      You are correct on above, but trade and economic ties will be radically increased with China and Middle East. Europe as a group, or as individual countries, will have to look out much more for themselves if the US continues its isolationism. A good example is buying Iranian oil when the president says they cannot. Building the natural gas pipeline from Russia when the president says they cannot. Wanting the nuclear treaty with Iran when the president says they cannot. DLS
    • ML
      M L.
      11 November 2018 @ 13:03
      The EU is the largest economy in the world, and the EZ within it is running a current account surplus (Germany mainly). Who is dependent on who, exactly?
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    5 November 2018 @ 23:51
    who are the ppl that thumbed down? comments from them would be good to see
    • DS
      David S.
      6 November 2018 @ 01:55
      Since these are mostly knee-jerk reactions, I think it would be better not to have a thumbs down indicator. It really does not tell us anything. If they want to say something it should be in the comment section. DLS
    • RR
      Rex R.
      6 November 2018 @ 18:54
      For instance-- he states that China is THE tech leader in Asia. That "data comment" ignores the proven technical capabilities of Japan and Korea. Japan is the world leader in robot tech- -and Korea is a leader in many tech fields including blockchain...
    • DS
      David S.
      8 November 2018 @ 18:39
      Rex R. - Thanks. I agree with you that the statement was too general. Your response is much better than just a thumbs down. Thanks again. DLS
  • TK
    Tyler K.
    5 November 2018 @ 22:57
    IMO Asian countries are too worried about China to integrate with China. And European countries are growing increasingly antagonistic towards each so disintegration seems likely rather than integration.
    • SA
      Scott A.
      5 November 2018 @ 23:57
      Agreed. I would see Japan and South Korea going towards the US rather than an aggressive China. At some point Australia and New Zealand as well. What about Africa and at least parts of South America? And the dependence on China buying our debt is not something I think is as important as it was once thought. Countries seem to be buying their own debt without much difficulty these days.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 November 2018 @ 01:59
      We are not talking about play cards. When it comes to trade, everyone will figure out how to trade with China even the US. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    5 November 2018 @ 18:45
    Since you use ETFs as your investment vehicle, it would be interesting to hear your comments on the liquidity of ETFs in major downturn. DLS
    • KS
      Karen S.
      5 November 2018 @ 21:25
      There won't be liquidity.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 November 2018 @ 02:02
      Karen S. - I agree with you that liquidity is a major problem, but Mr. Pelosky may have a strategy to deal with only the most liquid. It would be interesting to hear his comments on liquidity. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    5 November 2018 @ 15:34
    Excellent follow-up. Your Tri-Polar World perspective helped me add context to the many changes in the world since your first interview. With the disruptive effects of American isolationism, America is pushing Europe and the rest of the world toward China. European exporters, especially Germany, could be caught in a US/China trade war. New international banking systems are being set up. Many countries are seeing that their interests are no longer identical with American interests. A secondary perspective using a bi-polar world - everyone except North America - and its effect may show an additional level of investment insight at the ETF level. DLS
  • AJ
    Average J.
    5 November 2018 @ 14:13
    Splinternet concept is interesting. Wonder if will be just 2, or perhaps more....

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