Silver and Gold in the Modern Portfolio

Published on
October 22nd, 2018
Duration
29 minutes

Silver and Gold in the Modern Portfolio

The Expert View ·
Featuring Ned Naylor-Leyland

Published on: October 22nd, 2018 • Duration: 29 minutes

The question of whether precious metals have a place in one's portfolio is a never-ending debate, but an equally important yet often-overlooked question is "how much"? Ned Naylor-Leyland of Merian Global Investors discusses the role that gold and silver can play, and the important differences between sizing bullion versus sizing mining stocks. He also provides his theory for why central banks continue to accumulate bullion in their own portfolios. Filmed on October 11, 2018, in London.

Comments

  • HJ
    Harry J.
    28 October 2018 @ 20:07
    Ok now is the time for Grant to address the issue. His thoughts on trade ideas and thesis on how to use this data / information. Good work guys! Thank you RVTV
  • WM
    Will M.
    27 October 2018 @ 14:09
    I thought this was an excellent and very balanced view of gold (and silver) investment and why there should be some exposure to the sector. I think the high number of down votes is a bit surprising and may be primarily a result of Ned not providing more tangible tips plus the RVT spilt between those who have a high affinity for precious metals and those who don't. My personal view is having some exposure to silver and gold physical passion is a must, but probably is a lower percentage than more traditional "gold bugs". I am thinking a minimum of 5% now moving to probably 10% minimum if financial criss begins to really pick up. Elsewhere on RVT we have had commentators note that a rising dollar AND a rising gold price may be a harbinger of dramatic change ahead (per Martin Armstrong and others). For me, Ned did a great job of highlighting the leverage of miners to the physical and anyone who reviews history can see that unless it is different next time, a modest investment in mining equities could balance a big fall in traditional stocks and bonds. This is a change in my personal outlook where my own mindset has shifted over the past 15 years from metal holding to now 50/50 with a potential to buy more equities or more metal depending on "how bad it might be getting out there".
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    26 October 2018 @ 04:18
    Throwing this out here; Talking about physical versus paper markets, isn't there an arbitrage here somewhere for someone with deep pockets to buy up the paper-gold futures and demand delivery?
  • GR
    George R.
    25 October 2018 @ 18:27
    I really enjoy listening to Ned. I'd be interested to know whether silver, which I believe is used in solar panels, may see increased usage. Any ideas how much of the annual supply goes into photovoltaic infrastructure?
    • JM
      John M.
      25 October 2018 @ 19:11
      George per Ross Beaty I recall that he said 10% of world production of silver is used in Solar panels. I recommend watching Anthony Deden vid first then the Ross Beaty & this video as a final vignette to conclude the trilogy..
  • AB
    AJ B.
    24 October 2018 @ 18:08
    Surprised to see all of the thumbs down. Why? Because he speaks the truth about the global monetary system?
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    23 October 2018 @ 22:47
    Great interview, but could you PLEASE voice over the questions? I prefer to listen to these rather than watch them, and hearing the questions to which the expert is responding would really help.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      25 October 2018 @ 09:35
      I'll take the other side of that trade. The interviews work fine without the questions. In fact I worry that voicing over the questions would interrupt the speaker's rhythm.
  • RR
    Rogers R.
    23 October 2018 @ 18:46
    Just listened to this on my morning walk. One of the most inciteful and logical explanations of the perplexing current state of pricing of PM's and PM equities, with several incites that I have not heard before but the minute I heard them had to totally agree they made total sense. Well done, Real Vision!
  • CC
    Chad C.
    23 October 2018 @ 17:53
    I know he said not to pick individual miners, but I am curious if there are any names you are especially bullish on?
    • PS
      Patrick S.
      24 October 2018 @ 13:40
      Barrick for being the go to name, first majestic silver for insane silver leverage - love options on this one because of volatility, Endeavour silver for insane silver leverage, Tahoe resouces IF they can figure out their mine situation in Guatemala this will be a 20x easy insane leverage to silver aswell.... Centerra gold for huge undervaluation... All of the above in moderation and trading around existing positions.
  • TB
    Tim B.
    23 October 2018 @ 14:25
    Not flashy, just good, sound reasoning. Well done, sir.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    23 October 2018 @ 11:59
    Very thoughtful and helpful. Thank you.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    23 October 2018 @ 11:56
    One of the best gold interviews I have seen in a long time. Thank you :-)
  • GG
    Gary G.
    23 October 2018 @ 08:27
    Wondering the name and means of access to Ned’s fund......?
    • CD
      Colin D.
      23 October 2018 @ 13:03
      Its the Merian Gold & Silver fund and is a UK OEIC. .
  • SF
    Simon F.
    23 October 2018 @ 07:44
    Loving the thumbs down debate. I guess traders, or more precisely, speculators, think of anyone taking an interest in gold as the real speculators, whereas Ned calmly and eloquently proves they are in fact the real investors.
  • ss
    sid s.
    23 October 2018 @ 02:44
    my kind of a guy..
  • JM
    John M.
    23 October 2018 @ 01:51
    My recommendation is to watch the Anthony Deden video and the Ross Beaty video before this video. Deden & Beaty bring an investor (as in Deden) and an entrepreneur (as in Beaty) who's built many resource companies over the years. There are many reasons to own gold & silver and their respective various mining companies, Deden & Beaty tell you why and how cycles move. Ned Naylor-Leyland helps one position on the optimal portfolio balance. I hope this quick synopsis helps.. JM
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      24 October 2018 @ 05:56
      👆👆 Follow his path as he knows what he's saying! Grant Williams in Conversation with Ross Beaty: https://www.realvision.com/rv/television/videos/8cbbf11893d44bc6aadbfc847badf09d Grant Williams in Conversation Anthony Deden Part I: https://www.realvision.com/rv/television/videos/6bd50a3baea74f2dab22a7ae608bddd9
  • SS
    Steven S.
    23 October 2018 @ 01:26
    Ned's John Williams 'Shadowstats.com' reference earn him a thumb's up from me................
  • PC
    Peter C.
    22 October 2018 @ 23:53
    I thought this rather good. very thoughtful and touched multiple layers in previous metal investing. Can someone recommend a couple good actively managed mutual funds specialized in this area? thanks.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      23 October 2018 @ 03:26
      TGLDX in the U.S.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      23 October 2018 @ 03:26
      TGLDX in the U.S.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      23 October 2018 @ 16:29
      Thank you Michael.
  • DW
    Dave W.
    22 October 2018 @ 23:21
    Re: the thumbs down... As another poster said, as it seems no one left their argument for the thumbs down, it must be a Pavlovian response. Nice contrarian indicator. Might be getting close. But as Ned said, miners are a call option without an expiration, so timing doesn't matter if thinking in terms of insuring for years.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      25 October 2018 @ 20:36
      I am generally with you except calling miners a call option. If the gold price goes low enough for long enough some will go out of business and they will also not pay a dividend on the way down. Miners are far from being a call option. At least in EUROPE there are silver and gold coins around with a nominal value, e.g. 1 oz silver coins with 20 EUR nominal value are sold for 20 EUR. THIS is an unlimited call option.
  • my
    markettaker y.
    22 October 2018 @ 20:54
    loving the gold stuff on RV recently. I just love that it's such a legit finance outlet, yet it has this goldbug edge. Love it.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      23 October 2018 @ 03:58
      Agree, I can’t help but think the gold stuff on RV right now is priming us for what comes down the road when the current cycle plays out. Yields are indecisive at the moment because people think Fed can’t/won’t raise.... They’ll raise until they go too far - then start cutting to catch the market. By then 7/10s start looking like a roller coaster, with gold (short term) going to 800 (with help from King Dollar) then back into $2,000 territory when yields collapse. That’s Act 1, Act 2 is the reset when something other than goodwill needs to start underlining fiat money/credit that’s floating around the system. That’s when gold starts really working to protect purchasing power....
  • NI
    Nate I.
    22 October 2018 @ 20:19
    A great primer on gold/silver. Probably should have touched on the issue of mining stocks held in street name in the context of someone else's liability. Many brokers (for example, E-Trade in 2007 - although they denied it) have wobbled with minor stress compared to a significant credit catastrophe.
  • JB
    Johan B.
    22 October 2018 @ 20:04
    Excellent. Thoughtful and interesting. Thank you, Ned.
  • TB
    Tad B.
    22 October 2018 @ 19:39
    Please have Ned on again! This was one of the most eloquently explained arguments on the constructive case for holding PMs in one's portfolio I have seen. Straight in to the top 10 of all the vids I've watched on RV. Clearly not one for the momentum traders though, as evidenced by the 'thumbs down' 😆 As a previous poster says, it would be good to dive into the paper-market gold price fix vs physical.....and how it is continually used (abused) to hold prices down by the very same banks who use it to buy cheap physical through the back door. All that re-hypothication and double counting would be good to have a look at too 👍🏻
  • PT
    Phil T.
    22 October 2018 @ 19:10
    Amazing that Ned's insights are not better received. Whether pro or con on gold/silver, his overall analysis of our current market environment is impressive and likely prescient of upcoming market events. His comments on how much individual investors should have in this sector to balance risks seems reasonable from an overall portfolio perspective. Very enlightening.
  • DL
    Dan L.
    22 October 2018 @ 18:18
    Interesting that there are so many thumbs down but no explanation/correlation within the comments to why or what their logical reasons are. Reminds me of talking about miners in my Equity class at school, the whole room treats the topic like I brought up religion or politics. For the reason that people are so divided (and I would add heavily skewed "against" gold/silver in a portfolio), it seems like an obvious value investment going forward.
    • BG
      Bruno G.
      22 October 2018 @ 20:28
      Must be a sign we are at a big bottom
  • NG
    Nick G.
    22 October 2018 @ 18:03
    I guess that whenever people hear "Gold", they immediately hit the thumbs down button. Pavlovian response to a decade of "nowhere" prices. Well, I hope you are all limit long $BRK.A instead, because the logic is the same: if you don't want to be long the insurance, you want to be long the insurance writer.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    22 October 2018 @ 16:57
    Very good, nuanced and thoughtful commentary. Thanks, RV!
  • PW
    Phil W.
    22 October 2018 @ 16:37
    Well said Ned! Hoping you would have said a little more on the paper market...……………………….Thanks
  • CD
    Colin D.
    22 October 2018 @ 16:34
    Good to hear someone speaking so coherently that is investing in gold and silver physically (and via miners). I am no gold bug but on any reasonable valuation comparative there is value in bullion and even deeper value in mining stocks. I will therefore hold exposure to the sector until that value has been released by which time I should then have increased equity/bond buying power. As Ned says it is just sensible housekeeping to have at least a small exposure against risk elsewhere as a minimum. I guess the weight of thumbs down so far can be taken as a further contrarian buying signal, as there was not a lot to object to in the presentation. Gold has, after all, held its buying power for around 5,000 years and counting!
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      26 October 2018 @ 04:13
      Why maintain your buying power with gold when you could have invested in SP500 and returned many times your money (depending on exact timeframe)? I am not an indexer, but I think this is an argument worth having. If the dollar collapses, do US companies go to zero? Many are pretty much hard assets, I would suggest. And would stay profitable in the longer (5-10 years).
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    22 October 2018 @ 15:53
    audio around 2 min mark is strange
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    22 October 2018 @ 15:51
    why so many thumbs down??
    • AC
      Allen C.
      22 October 2018 @ 21:51
      Wondering the same thing?!
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 October 2018 @ 01:31
      precious metal haters.......
  • JS
    John S.
    22 October 2018 @ 09:56
    Well articulated pragmatic thesis. Good advice I think.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      24 October 2018 @ 01:33
      This isn't "Hotly Debated" ... it's group-think....