The Inflation Inflection Point

Published on
October 10th, 2019
Duration
29 minutes

The Inflation Inflection Point

The Expert View ·
Featuring Kit Juckes

Published on: October 10th, 2019 • Duration: 29 minutes

What happens to the economy if inflation expectations dramatically change? Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, reveals the implication of an aging economic cycle and a global trade recession that are pushing inflationary forces toward an inflection point. He says that those central banks with room to cut interest rates further will do so, and those that cannot will struggle significantly. Juckes argues that a change in the market’s acceptance of tight fiscal policy alongside extremely accommodative monetary policy could be the trigger for a new inflation regime. Filmed on September 19, 2019 in London.

Comments

Transcript

  • DF
    Dominic F.
    12 October 2019 @ 09:10
    Great Interview. I love straight talkers :-)
  • RS
    Rob S.
    11 October 2019 @ 00:53
    Would someone be able to explain his comment about the Japanese having to recycle the worlds biggest net international financial position every day? Thanks.
    • RK
      Roger K.
      11 October 2019 @ 20:53
      Not 100% sure, but I think the Japanese are the net biggest creditor in the world. So they keep on eye on the risk-off situation to bring back their cash into the country. Hence in a major risk-off situation, JPY tend to go up as a safe heaven trade. In another discussion , sure fire trade in a coming months is an appreciation of JPY as JCB has run out of ammunition , While FED cuts the rates.
  • MT
    Michael T.
    10 October 2019 @ 21:35
    Great Interview, Thanks!
  • MS
    Malcolm S.
    10 October 2019 @ 15:40
    I would think the probability of a Plaza Accord equivalent deal is low due to the trade wars America is waging against the rest of the world. Why would countries who are negatively affected by the US trade wars be willing to work with the US to make the US more globally competitive by helping devalue the USD?
  • DH
    Dale H.
    10 October 2019 @ 15:35
    I'm very doubtful that gold will be able to continue to be bottled up once inflation really hits hard in the ROW. India has jacked up import taxes on gold AGAIN to 12.5%, which Indians will pay anyway once they realize how the rupee will be bushwhacked.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    10 October 2019 @ 13:01
    This guy is a hoot. Love his down to earth, easy manner. Great overview and forecast info also.
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    10 October 2019 @ 11:23
    Shouldn’t easy fiscal policy weaken domestic currency?
    • RK
      Roger K.
      10 October 2019 @ 19:42
      I think that's the first step, but with fiscal policy ( increasing Monetary base vs Money supply ) it creates more actions , transactions and thus increasing velocity of money creates much needed inflation hence CB has to increase the IR hence the value of money ( FX rates). So the market will position 2 steps ahead to reap the benefit.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 October 2019 @ 07:06
    Great overview; odds are in Mr.Juckes' predictions favor. DLS