The Point of No Return?

Published on
August 15th, 2019
Duration
16 minutes


The Point of No Return?

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: August 15th, 2019 • Duration: 16 minutes

Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, provides an update to "Recession Watch." He offers a candid snapshot of all the major macro movements unfolding right now, and reveals the major inflection points in currencies, European banks, bond spreads, and more. He also provides a poignant reminder of what’s at stake. Filmed on August 12, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JB
    John B.
    9 December 2019 @ 10:45
    crickets....Cramer has been more correct
  • WB
    William B.
    6 November 2019 @ 03:44
    As I understand it: Raoul Pal predicts US Treasury 10 year yield will be 0% Jeffrey Gundlach predicts higher, perhaps 6% Should we look in 1 year or 2?
  • JK
    John K.
    30 October 2019 @ 05:22
    Well, I missed all the rallies. Where's the doom? Market has done the exact opposite of what he and every guest has said. I thought there would be a recession even before I saw any of this. I'll be dead before it happens.
  • LS
    Luca S.
    29 October 2019 @ 15:54
    Fantastic reasoning, the only problem is that it's NORMAL for things to look absolutely grim in the month of AUGUST, it happened in 2011 and 2015 and it'll keep happening... an august storm has absolutely no meaning in the big picture because it's normal; it creates the support levels to measure any year-end move... 10 weeks later we're breaking out on equities all over the place... and no one remembers nothing about august... it's always the same movie... nothing is different this time
  • JB
    John B.
    28 October 2019 @ 10:22
    Still waiting for armageddon, I think this is a 2016 repeat
  • GS
    George S.
    11 September 2019 @ 01:33
    I'm a newbie and find this useful...but...what is causing US bond yields to go up ? is someone selling off the bond market ?
    • KR
      Kartik R.
      16 September 2019 @ 00:57
      There's a temporary pause among bond bulls as the US economic indicators are suggesting that an immediate recession is not upon us. So a lot of profit taking in bonds - not sure if those investors are getting into the equity/gold/commodity markets yet. Maybe they are holding cash. Only time will tell.
  • CG
    Chris G.
    1 September 2019 @ 20:19
    VERITAS This is why signed up to this channel today. Thank you Raoul.
  • BP
    Bill P.
    21 August 2019 @ 19:30
    Raoul, Great video and it is great to see such conviction. Completely agree with virtually everything you discussed in the video and numerous videos in recent months except your view on the USD. While you have been right that the DXY has been higher in 2019 it is up less than 3% this year and has still not re-captured its highs from either 2015 or 2017. It does not seem to be telling the same story as bonds or gold at this moment which have had far bigger moves. It seems that despite the currency weakness in the GBP, AUD and the RMB among other the USD does not want to breakout. After seeing the USD go down in in the flight to safety in the stock market carnage at the end of last year and rebound with global equities in early 2019 it appears the USD is now considered more of a "risk on" asset. The only explanation I could think of for the USD and equities falling in unison was that it was an unwind of positions of those who borrowed in yen or other low yielding currencies to buy USD assets. Any thoughts on the possibility of a repeat of December's behavior in the USD? Thanks Bill
  • aa
    allan a.
    21 August 2019 @ 01:48
    Nice video. What's been holding us out of recession is the collapsed in interest rates in the U.S. If money from outside our country is pushing interest rates down then it has to be pushing interest rates up in other countries. In the long run only delays our recession. Can't miss it in the year over year change in M1 for the U.S.. Interest rates usually start falling just before a recession { 11 months or less}. The non-farm payroll, year over year change, peaked in January or 2019. A late cycle stimulus usually lasts no more than a year due to the lack of a positive feed back loop. As you know we are close to a recession and things appear to have stablized or at least look less bad. It's when the year over year change in M1 goes down, again, or flat you know we are going into a recession. Maybe August of 2020 the recession will start since the only growth the economy has left is increasing dept. and that isn't real growth. What concerns me is we could actually be starting a recession this time with most of the interest rate curve already down and little the FED can do.
  • VN
    Viktor N.
    20 August 2019 @ 21:33
    Great piece! Thx!! What happens to the Eurodollar trade in case of a liquidity event? I mean if Deutsche Bank goes bust and the EU interbanking market freeze. Wouldn‘t that crush the trade??
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    20 August 2019 @ 11:15
    Concerning Joe Weisenthal: guy was a boring unopinionated journalist, one of the many media boys that go for a nickel for relaying other people's opinions. That was until a few weeks ago when something 'happened' to the guy. A hormone spike or a 40s crisis maybe. At that point, he decided to propagate controversial opinions. Nothing wrong with that, as long as you do it with the intention of spreading something you believe is valuable. Instead, he went full Monty attacking people -Taleb style but without the intellect- just for the sake of gaining popularity. Sad.
  • HC
    Hugh C.
    20 August 2019 @ 03:25
    Thanks for sticking your neck out Raoul, I admire your courage.
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    19 August 2019 @ 19:31
    I heard Raoul on The Investors Podcast and he said he likes the short end of the yield curve. I’ve seen a lot of comments about TLT for the bond trade, which has long dated bonds. Is it too late for TLT entry right now? If so what would be the best way to do the bond trade moving forward?
  • LT
    LYALL T.
    19 August 2019 @ 08:55
    Pal - I doubt it will take 5 years for you to have egg on your face. I wouldn't be surprised if you're come fairly close to calling the bottom. The European economy is slowing & some economies will have/are in recession, but a recession is not a crisis. Italy is in recession and the banks barely reported any new NPL formation in 1Q19 because they have already been to hell and back and spent 10yrs resolving bad loans, and new vintage lending has been hyper conservative. With a few exceptions (e.g. DB), the European banks are in good health. They have a tonne of capital; are very liquid; are profitable and paying dividends. Profits have actually been rising. Bad debts have been falling for years and are mostly dealt with. Europe as a whole also has a 3% current account surplus. Hard to see a liquidity squeeze in a content with massive excess savings! I agree we could have recessions in Europe & parts of Nth Asia, but this is investment-related (trade war uncertainty). If the trade war uncertainty is resolved, pent up investment will happen and the global economy will quickly recover. But sure, we could have recessions. But recessions are not crises! US will probably be the exception - a recession seems unlikely with the consumer & labour market in such good health, consumer debt to GDP down from 100% to 80% over the past decade, and debt servicing costs near long term lows also. You're talking utter nonsense.
    • dm
      david m.
      22 August 2019 @ 15:11
      >the European banks are in good health >MSCI Europe Banks Index trading at all time low's after trillions of stimulus Pick one.
    • LT
      LYALL T.
      16 September 2019 @ 02:47
      David - many European banks are +15-20% since this video was published. Pal did in fact call the bottom, as I predicted. I actually bought more after watching this video, as I thought that if this B/S is what the bears actually believe, then we are fairly obviously at the bottom. The MSCI Europe Banks Index is/was at all time lows because (1) in the past, there was in fact a crisis and a lot of money was lost, and the banks had to recapitalise themselves and massively dilute shareholders, resulting in permanent losses of capital; and (2) despite the significant progress made, valuations were plumbing new lows of 5x P/E despite many of these banks now being healthy and back to paying robust dividends (dividend yields are 6-8% on European banks). You're looking in the rear vision mirror, like most investors, when you're supposed to be looking out the windshield.
  • YB
    Yair B.
    19 August 2019 @ 01:00
    If you want to check of RV achieved its goal of putting real financial and economic knowledge out there, look no further. The fact that I, a middle school teacher and a beginner retail investor, was ready for the end of 2018 and the second hal
    • YB
      Yair B.
      19 August 2019 @ 01:03
      ...half of 2019, just shows you how important this platform is! While all my friends are freaking out and trying to understand what is happening in the markets, I am well positioned in gold and other instruments to work with this kind of volatility. Thank you, RV for making this education so accessible! Also, you need an edit button here... :)
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    19 August 2019 @ 00:42
    Hi Raoul, Could you explain how China can have a dollar funding shortage and at the same time hold $1.1 trillion in US treasuries? Thanks!
    • LG
      Lewis G.
      19 August 2019 @ 10:16
      The below from Jeffrey Snyder explains this well. Note where he talks about how the PBOC is using currency swaps to fight currency devaluation rather than using up their reserves. https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-content/list-guest-publications/3075-cny-7-the-gears-behind-the-clockface/file https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-content/list-guest-publications/3076-the-aid-of-tic-in-sorting-shorts-and-shortages/file
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      21 August 2019 @ 20:02
      Lewis G: Thanks for the links! I'd heard Jeff explain this as well, but since I could not fully understand it, I wanted to see if Raoul or someone else here could explain it in another way.
  • RH
    Robert H.
    18 August 2019 @ 21:35
    Wow! Some schmuck from Bloomberg made a call that there was no alarm? The alarms are still ringing FFF sakes. I'm just a simple no-body who watched the European shell kinking back then with nothing but a $15 a month subscription. I can deduce Bloomberg news is over-priced? Gentlemanly rant Raoul, well done.
  • JM
    John M.
    18 August 2019 @ 17:49
    Raoul, I liked the 15-16 minute format. Even if you've studied economics some of this stuff can be hard to grasp. On the original "Recession Watch" was 1 hour and 5 minutes. I'm not saying that longer discussion, wasn't worth while, but when you folks produce so much material then it can be overwhelming to say the least. Thanks for your Twitter rants too. They were stellar and rammed home all the points you've been making along the way.. I'll be renewing my subscription when it comes up again.. JM
  • RG
    Richard G.
    18 August 2019 @ 07:50
    Excellent stuff Raoul I’m positioned for the events you have described playing out but one thing I don’t understand what you’ve described is how a further issuance of Treasury Bills equals a further drain on liquidity? Lee up the great work anyway.
    • JS
      John S.
      18 August 2019 @ 14:27
      In the absence of QE, issuing additional treasuries will significantly reduce the supply of dollars. QE would neutralize the effect but it's unlikely the Fed will implement it in the time frame Raoul discussed.
  • JS
    John S.
    17 August 2019 @ 21:42
    It takes incredible courage to put one's reputation on the line like this. 30+ years of studying data tells me he's killed it and I pray we're both 100% wrong.
  • FD
    Francois-Guy D.
    17 August 2019 @ 18:18
    Could anyone explain the risk in buying Eurodollars with Canadian dollars
    • JL
      Julian L.
      18 August 2019 @ 09:31
      Eurodollars has nothing to do with Euro or Dollar. It's Fed Fund rate play. You are betting that, with current price, Fed Fund would be 1.26% or lower by Dec 2020. Whatever currency you are at is separate issue; as Fed cut rate, dollar may get weaker, then again Canada is already in recession so your currency should be even weaker.
    • TB
      Timothy B.
      18 August 2019 @ 23:41
      The Fed lowered the rate, the rest of the world did too, it's a race to negative, I don't see how currency is the place to go unless you get out before the rate cut is matched. Looks like to me he is still saying bonds will outperform equities. I think the markets are in euphoria, all the news is bad, but the prediction is 100% for a rate cut in September, so they got excited about the dollar possibly weakening but I doubt the Feds will cut enough fast enough, so the dollar will continue it's rally past 25% because we still have positive rates while everywhere else has negative. Obviously their currency will weaken against ours.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    17 August 2019 @ 15:40
    Had (have) house in Cyprus! Please listen to Raoul! Just might save you a few £/$. This time it matters!
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    17 August 2019 @ 14:14
    Thank you Raul for being forthright in your opinions. I would rather listen to someone like you Raul with strong conviction on their bet who puts a stake in the ground, even if wrong. Versus someone who is wishy washy and vague.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    17 August 2019 @ 10:02
    I don't see a 2008 collapse of the US economy in 2020 simply because minimum wages will be going up 8% in Blue States in 2020 for more than 50% of the US population and Trump is trying to prevent a wholesale transfer of jobs from US to China which was what happened last time the minimum wage was raised in 2009. In 2008-2010 about 5 million US jobs went to China and that broke the US housing market and the economy. Politicians aren't going to allow this to happen again if they want to keep their jobs. One way Trump is doing that is through Mnuchin who keeps giving out very juicy tax breaks and exemptions stemming from the new tax law. The guy has tax gift every quarter. Without a mass scale drain of jobs you can't have a massive recession and deflation particularly if price levels are going higher because minimum wages are increasing. Also if price levels are increasing that makes it easier for corporations to keep paying their debt holders. Raoul keeps trying to scare people off HYG and LQD and I don't get it. If risk free rates go down, credit spreads automatically widen making junk and investment grade more attractive automatically. Corp bonds also have a much lower credit risk than stocks. I would be worried about buybacks and dividends in case of a recession, not so much about corporate bonds. I share his concerns for stocks but not for bonds. Bondholders have first claim on earnings over stockholders. You look at any corp bond default statistics and even from 2008, they are not that bad. Maybe European corp bonds are bad, but HYG and LQD are all American companies and not that bad. If anything, one risk free yields go to zero, credit spreads will be wider and at some point the money from the TLT trade will look for a new home. Well, guess what has better than S&P 500 credit risk (which is AAA) and significantly higher yield? LQD I am not worried in the least bit about the ability of Pepsi, Anheuser Busch, Coke, Johnson & Johnson or whichever other US company to service their debt - even under a Democratic administration. I am worried about them being able to do buybacks and dividends but not service their debt.
    • SA
      Stephen A.
      17 August 2019 @ 10:04
      Forgot to say that HYG is up 10% in 2019 and LQD is up 15%. LQD is the only bond ETF that has managed to somewhat kept pace with TLT. And LQD duration is half that of TLT!
    • PJ
      Paul J.
      17 August 2019 @ 15:44
      Dear Stephen... Suspect you're wrong! Please post again in 18 months time! Peace x
    • CU
      Can U.
      18 August 2019 @ 14:37
      A lot of the US-based large corporations receive their income in other currencies than the USD, which has to be converted back to the dollar and repatriated to pay dividends or do buybacks.
    • TB
      Timothy B.
      18 August 2019 @ 23:46
      Why LQD or even TLT for that matter when there is TMF?
  • NA
    N A.
    17 August 2019 @ 09:36
    Well done, Raoul you don't need to worry about your call on the markets. Its not a case "IF" your scenario will play out,but "WHEN" . IMHO the dam wall has sprung a leak and will completely collapse. Then the RESET. Great work enjoy your Holiday. Thanking you for helping humanity, for >90% are clueless what a sh*%t storm is about to hit.
  • JD
    Jeff D.
    17 August 2019 @ 04:23
    You the man! I'm up 200% in 3 weeks on my eurodollar CALLs. It's literally going to be a 10X trade when rates hit 0. Thanks dude.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      17 August 2019 @ 09:18
      may I ask if you might step through your calculation illustrating how you're up 200% in three weeks? No need to disclose your position size, just base it on one lot only. Thanks.
    • JD
      Jeff D.
      17 August 2019 @ 22:56
      Simple: I bought CALLs (using a tastyworks trading account) on /GEZ19 in with around 300 DTE, at strike 98.75 When the eurodollar future goes up $0.10 the CALL option goes up around 100% Close the trade when the fed funds rate = 0
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      22 August 2019 @ 09:47
      Thanks Jeff for spelling it out. Certainly bold to be buying OTM calls, but I guess the way it works is that altough the delta is lower (than with ITM), it's a bigger percentage of the smaller premium and can therefore move by a bigger percentage of what you paid. But you have to buy quite a few. Minor point: /GEZ19 is Dec 2019. For 300 DTE, it would be June 2020 and /GEM20. Dec calls with (today) 116 DTE would be a bit too near if all this may take a good few months to play out. The part I still don't understand is why Eurodollars? Every time I see the interest rate universe move, I see a bigger move in ZROZ, TLT and /ZB than in /GE. Is it because you can buy calls for 18 cents (or maybe 6 cents when you did), or is there some expectation that Eurodollars will explode up more than the other instruments because of the offshore dollar shortage or something? Cheers.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    17 August 2019 @ 01:55
    Thank you Sir!
  • WW
    Wayne W.
    17 August 2019 @ 01:08
    Relax Raoul. The business cycle and recessions have secretly been repealed by the deep state and their vested interests. People haven't got the memo that the the world central bankers are Gods even if they are intelligent idiots with their insane Frankenstein monetary experiments. The ponzi casino markets and banks must be propped up at all costs, wall street and the elites must be backstopped by the ignorant masses in main street via what's left of their bank deposits. The Fed is not independent and lost what was left of its credibility even before the GFC. The Fed are market dependent whores and a full audit of the Fed would undoubtedly uncover them as being almost as deplorable as the CIA in their activities. The evil banksters particularly Goldman 'Sucks' and the financial terrorists that are the US Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes, legal or illegal for their masters.
  • CH
    Charles H.
    16 August 2019 @ 23:27
    Raoul here doing the gutsy, responsible thing and calling it the way he sees it. It’s trivially easy to criticise; it’s tough to tell the hard truth in such a public way. Well done, and thank you.
  • KB
    Kenneth B.
    16 August 2019 @ 20:07
    Raoul talked about concerns of corporate bonds. I certainly can understand the risk in high-yield corporate bonds. Is there the same concern or risk associated with what is considered high-quality corporate bonds?
    • DS
      David S.
      18 August 2019 @ 18:04
      GE was at one time a high quality bond. I would not trust the rating agencies to do you work for you either. Good luck. DLS
  • SS
    Sam S.
    16 August 2019 @ 18:05
    Heartfelt struggle to lead us to water, but some don't want to drink. Raoul---you don't need to qualify all the jerks out there, as you've always presented and shared in a humble well spoken manner. The fake news is really good at not reporting what's really going on in Europe. RV is one of our blessed resources for which no apology is ever needed. How many critics stand up and say they were wrong to criticize you after they mess it up? NONE. Hypocrites. No downside in your presentation if we prepare and it's not right. If it is right, we may win big. Maybe a few trade ideas to go along with this. Kindest of appreciation!
  • AG
    Angus G.
    16 August 2019 @ 10:45
    Absoute legend
  • BS
    Bernd S.
    16 August 2019 @ 07:59
    Awesome, as always. Raoul, wrt to the EZ-banks, if you're interested in a bottom up perspective that arrives at the same conclusion as you, try consider contacting Dr. Markus Krall. He knows most European banks from the inside since 2 decades, designed their risk systems, has forecasted their last 2 year earnings developments correctly and predicts the collaps of the banking system by the end of 2020, when according to his calculations (he's done it for every bank) more than half of the banks will be in the red. Would love to see him interviewed and challenged by RV.
    • BS
      Bernd S.
      16 August 2019 @ 08:04
      He's given numerous talks about the topic in German. Unfortunately can't find anything in English. If anybody's interested anyway, here's one of them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dku7LfketuQ
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      17 August 2019 @ 15:43
      Not so sure about Mr Krall, he seems to be on the populist side of things, "buy gold and hold tight", not a very good strategy for the last 8 years. One might even say he was dead wrong.
    • BS
      Bernd S.
      17 August 2019 @ 19:33
      yeah, agreed. he's not in the investing business though, so I wouldn't judge him on that. he just knows the euro zone banks better than anyone, so his perspective on that could help understanding what's really going on and what it could mean for the economy
  • CS
    Christos S.
    16 August 2019 @ 07:09
    Raoul, Cyprus in 2013 was no joke, We were in the dark for two weeks with the banks closed and no way of knowing if they would reopen or what was left in them - or which past transactions had actually cleared. We then had capital controls (with the central bank checking each transfer request individually and only allowing through what was 'absolutely essential'), cash point controls on daily withdrawals, and private business frozen as nobody was paying invoices. Even the government stopped paying invoices and cut the rent it was paying to private landlords by 30% (f**k the contracts), everybody else followed suit while landlords still owed to the bank, importers couldn't get LCs to import the cans you were buying - no one would take an LC from a Cy bank - not funny But Cy came back and I'm not getting caught up in the next shitstorm Let me ask you this: Inflation - It seems tariffs are inflationary which could help erode the US debt mountain somewhat, but what then? Can't raise rates in this mess! It seems to me that we have a ketchup bottle situation in inflation. We have been banging on the ketchup bottle for a decade and now that we are convinced that nothing can come out, it will splatter all over us...
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      16 August 2019 @ 11:59
      Christos, as per my note below - I went through a similar situation in Argentina, in 2000. There were, however, a handful of people who saw it coming and survived (if not prospered) by having some cash and otherwise banking in the the US or Uruguay (not US banks in Argentina - they were wiped out). Knowing what you know from the Cyprus experience, how would you prepare yourself for what might be an even bigger, multi country event, this time around?
    • CS
      Christos S.
      16 August 2019 @ 13:19
      Thanks, Stephen B. Admittedly I wasn't too hurt by the experience though my ability to profit was limited. At the time I was running a wealth management operation as EAM fro the usual Swiss private banks. I had a terrible time persuading people here to move their cash out of Cy banks and into swiss banks since they were earning 4% on deposits here and nothing in CH. I even had people shutting down their swiss accounts and repatriating funds only to get chopped up in the haircut a few weeks later... What we have here is global so can't really hide in too many places. As I see it now, I am looking at precious metals gold and platinum that has taken a beating to ridiculous levels and dollars (I am Euro-based). So, hide behind the dollar and hopefully will bottom fish once bloodletting starts
  • bb
    brian b.
    16 August 2019 @ 06:33
    i opened a futures account to try the eurodollar trade but its very confusing these futures contracts. 2 contracts give me over 1 million notional value but if LIBOR goes to 0 it seems I hardly make anything, like 17k. when you make futures recommendations for futures would it be possible to give an example of what a 1 contract trade costs and could make so neophytes like me can gauge better how many contracts they actually would like to buy?
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      16 August 2019 @ 07:22
      The market has been pretty rough these days and it isn't finished, stay away from futures contract if you never traded them before as you might be right in your analysis but still incur margin calls and go bankrupt. Look at being long 1 month call/put options to express your view. Trust me that is a way safer decision.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    16 August 2019 @ 05:54
    Raoul, it seems like you have moderated your view on gold somewhat (?) I.e. that your are not any longer certain that it is bound (initially) to get depressed by the rising dollar... Am I correct in this observation? --- Secondly, thanks for making such a bold call. Don't mind the people who say - he cried wolf earlier. The implication of this scenario would be so immense that it would be nuts to take precautions now.
  • KB
    Kunal B.
    16 August 2019 @ 05:29
    Raoul - what would you recommend as asset allocation for a medium level net worth investor?
  • WC
    William C.
    16 August 2019 @ 05:07
    that was fucking nuts
    • WC
      William C.
      16 August 2019 @ 11:33
      Like incredible
  • PN
    Philip N.
    16 August 2019 @ 05:03
    So, I guess my question is this. What would have to happen for Raoul P's call to be wrong? This has gone on way longer than I would have thought was possible, but the rabbits keep coming out of hats.
    • JS
      Jason S.
      16 August 2019 @ 16:48
      You get that feeling that there’s another rabbit in the hat looming in the shadows. Hard to know whether this is the real deal or not. Hmmmm. Makes you seriously think about things. But I’m on the fence thinking we get another rabbit in the hat. QE could perhaps keep this going for another 18 months or so...and maybe the bonds are negative because we are in a new negative IR world where this is the new normal?
  • bm
    brian m.
    16 August 2019 @ 04:02
    Is it possible for Eurodollar futures to go over 100 with negative Libor rates?
    • MD
      Murph D.
      16 August 2019 @ 11:59
      Yes. See the Euribor contracts as precedent.
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:59
    Thanks for the update Raoul! I had no idea that happened in Spain. Should people get real assets instead of sitting on cash? I’m thinking of doing the ED trade. Just worried I’ll screw it up since I’ve never place a futures trade before.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:46
    Eagles don’t hunt flies. Joe Weisenthal is a fly, stay with the eagles Raoul.
  • DR
    David R.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:41
    Regarding the capital funding/insolvency problem that Eurozone banks face, expect that the ECB will massively purchase bank debt and equities with "printed" Euros. Basically, copy the Fed's playbook a decade ago to prop up banks to the financial detriment of John Q Public who hasn't a clue what's going on. In turn, this fall the Fed will buy US Treasuries this fall to fund the insolvent United States government. Numerous smaller countries in the world to invest in which are in much better financial and fundamental economic condition than the bloody Eurozone and US. Not to mention the gold and some other real assets as you know.
    • DS
      David S.
      16 August 2019 @ 02:24
      I am old. I like gold. Not brave enough to invest in EM for now. Thanks for advice. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      16 August 2019 @ 02:43
      David S.... I like gold too, and silver coins too, except they tarnish. I think some physical USD cash too is supposed to be a good idea. And don't let the bastards force y'all to turn in your cash when they go negative rates. There's the reason the constitution permits guns. I am likely older. Like Ray Dalio (age 70)... Point is, Ray wrote a piece last week saying that it's very risky to *not* invest in China (but I wasn't referring to china when I said a "smaller" country). As you probably know, months ago Ray told everyone to load up on gold too. Now china - but with the caveat that clearer heads must prevail to preclude a war and get back to business, otherwise he is bearish on both China and US. Cheers. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/raydalio_bridgewaters-ray-dalio-discusses-the-impact-activity-6564588090894143488-Pax6/
    • DR
      David R.
      16 August 2019 @ 02:49
      ^ It's mostly in Ray's video embedded in his page for which I specified the url above.
  • DM
    Dustyn M.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:38
    When you say dollar strength, are comparing it to the yuan and euro? What about the Yen or Swiss Franc?
    • DR
      David R.
      16 August 2019 @ 01:53
      And Thai Baht etc .... against the Weak Dollar, it's up about 9% in a year and up almost 50% in a decade. DXY is down ~700 pips from its last bull run in December 2016 (a much lower peak than its previous peaks as USD is in a massively bearish trend down overall since 1985 with lower lows and lower highs), and likewise EURUSD is up 700 pips since Dec 2016, has been in a range for months. And from an Elliotwave & technical perspective, the dollar looks ripe to collapse in a big 5-wave impulse lower similar to the Dec 2016 - Feb 2018 period. All the small traders and specs are long the dollar, while the commericals are short USD. The commercials almost always win. Way too much dollar bullishness, especially in US, not surprisingly. Big surprise coming for them as DXY collapses toward 80 or so (technically, A=C). Finally, Trump is screaming for a lower dollar like he has been screaming for lower interest rates. Guess what happens. He gets both! But he better be careful what he wishes for - he might get more of both than he bargained for!
  • MI
    Madhu I.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:12
    Raoul great call looks like you will be right. I wish you are wrong on the doom loop. Too many folks will suffer if true.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:01
    Raoul - thanks for staying the course. Real Vision and it’s fantastic team is the best thing that has happened to modern economic-financial global media. Thank you for your years of study and dedication, not staying retired on some island getting all tanned and pudgy, and getting back in the game to truly reach out & educate the average hardworking citizen. Drop Snippy Joe; he’s a dullard and mannerless and not worth the bandwidth. As for calling it like you see it, that’s crystalized from all your years of experience and hard-knocks. It doesn’t matter if it doesn’t play out within your narrative because NOBODY KNOWS how it’s gonna go. It depends on Xi, Trump, Legarde, Powell, Abe, the EU and some black swan circling in the wings. We folks choose our leaders based on their experience, foresight and integrity and we’re listening because we can see it unfolding plainly through your eyes. It makes sense. That’s your gift - intelligible narration.. And that’s why we are here - to hear what you have say. Thank you for that. Have a great holiday; we’ve watched you put in a “shit-ton” of work over the last month with the amazing Recession Watch series. Sleep in, eat paella, and go for a sail. Hannah
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 August 2019 @ 11:07
      Thank you Hanna!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 August 2019 @ 11:07
      Sorry, Hannah!
  • DR
    David R.
    16 August 2019 @ 01:00
    According to subscriber-only sources, the Fed is likely to resume QE in Sept-Oct, which we're not hearing much about yet on RealVision or the MSM, as the Fed must monetize those massive Treasury requirements and the US gov't over-spending & debt, an essentially bankrupt nation, in the style of Weimar Germany a century ago. Call it QE or MMT or whatever, but it's Zimbabwe-like as the US has by far the worst twin deficits - financial and trade - in human history, living far far far beyond its means for far too long. A reckoning awaits soon and it'll be ugly-ugly-ugly for US people and some others. Gold shall indeed be the last man standing. The country which in fact possesses 83% of the world's physical gold (including both its massive sovereign gold reserves and large PM holdings by its people), as was accidentally leaked briefly in a classified internal document in Mandarin in Singapore last month before being quickly covered up, will emerge as the masters and rule-makers of the brave new world post crisis... Guess who? (Hint: it's not the Bankrupt States of America nor any of its so-called "allies"). Remember the golden rule, "He who owns the gold makes the rules". Little wonder Ray Dalio was so bullish on China in his latest personal public release a couple days ago. A very bright man and the most successful money manager on the planet, who hits the mark repeatedly. A must-read.
  • AA
    Aaron A.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:57
    NUGT if you really want to go all in on this thesis. I’m not all in yet but toes are dipped. Should be fun.
    • DR
      David R.
      16 August 2019 @ 02:55
      Aaron, in general putting money into a leveraged ETF is not advisable. They have big tracking errors and the downside is always much worse than the upside. For example, if that basket of stocks starts at $10, then rises to $11, your 3X eft might go to 12.20. Then if the basket goes back down to $10, you could expect to be down to $8. Fact. Too hard to explain the mechanics here, but that' s how they work. They are intended for only a very short-term hold. You're way better off to buy an unleveraged ETF or stocks on margin, if you really must leverage, because you don't suffer the tracking error. Or by call options maybe. Just sayin.
  • WM
    Will M.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:52
    Great stuff Raoul and I don't think it matters whether you are 100% right, 50% right will be bad enough. Other folks I subscribe to like Martin Armstrong and MSA plus other authors I respect like Diego Parrilla, Michael Lewitt and many others. All seem certain we are at a place in the financial world where the risks are legion and the ability to fight the fallout in a united manner never weaker. Predictions vary a bit in terms of what will be the best investments of course. But being very close to retirement and with half my wealth in pensions and IRAs I am very worried indeed. I read geopolitical and economic history prodigiously and sense, with all that is going on everywhere, that a few low risk bets might just mitigate horrendous losses.
  • JF
    Joseph F.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:44
    Excellent. Thanks.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:39
    This Recession series was excellent and this update is the Cherry on Top. Thank you Raoul
  • MH
    Michael H.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:22
    I love love love love this! Appreciate you Raol!!
  • JO
    John O.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:20
    Way to go Raoul “coach” !
  • TS
    Todd S.
    15 August 2019 @ 23:34
    Thank you for having the courage to speak up in times like this. I’d rather be on alert and have nothing happen.... than to have something happen and get blind sided.
  • TW
    Thorne W.
    15 August 2019 @ 23:07
    Oh and Joe Weisenthal is indeed a registered idiot, MSM bought and paid for. I wouldn't think about him again for a nanosecond.
  • TW
    Thorne W.
    15 August 2019 @ 23:05
    Raoul - Bravo. I'm constantly on the guard against confirmation bias; it is probably our single worst enemy. But I agree with you completely. I sincerely hope we're both wrong (bring on the eggs), and that everyone lives happily ever after. Between Lagarde (you can't make these names up, Madoff etc) and the smug mugshot I saw today of Bullard ... well, I too am ready for holiday. Time for the rum drinker to take over ... segue ... I had had the pleasure recently of spending a day with my wife on a desolate beach called La Playa de Los Destiloderos ... across the waves was a tower on the Count of Lichtenstein's compound. I imagined the rum runners of days past; they at least had skin in the game. But I realized the Count of Lichtenstein and his ilk will be fine. There is reason we still go to see Victor Hugo in the theater, too bad few attendees realize why. At least those in Hong Kong went to class. Enjoy your holiday.
  • NS
    Nathan S.
    15 August 2019 @ 23:05
    Joe Wiesenthal is a fucking idiot
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    15 August 2019 @ 22:31
    Bravo Raoul thanks for the update. I never comment on twitter but it gets under my skin when people attack others for their views or play the I told you so game on wrong calls. Let’s not be so damn stupid and realize we’re in a profession that forces us to project in to the future to make our living. I just hope these assholes on the internet don’t ever get you to a point where you walk away. Please continue to share your thoughts because whether your right or wrong about this current call I could really care less. I come here because you push me to think fluidly and I admire the balls you have to stick your neck out there and make these big market calls. Thanks again for all that you do. Sincerely, The small trader that admires those that are trying to make this profession a more level playing field.
  • SP
    Scott P.
    15 August 2019 @ 21:20
    How can an Australian retail investor get access to eurodollar futures or options?
    • MB
      Michael B.
      15 August 2019 @ 21:41
      If you’re on Interactive Brokers you can search for the futures symbol GE. Not to be confused with the stock GE (General Electric). You might need to activate permissions to trade futures though.
    • WY
      Will Y.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:37
      depends on your broker. try Interactive, IBKR. and make sure you deposit more than $25k, enable margin trading, options and futures.
    • NS
      Nathan S.
      15 August 2019 @ 23:05
      IB
    • bm
      brian m.
      16 August 2019 @ 03:58
      I am with Bell Potter in Australia, Im almost sure you can buy Eurodollar futures. Seems a bit scary as you have to buy multiple contracts (each valued at 1 million) to be effective..I have a feeling Powell may want to be another Volker.
  • JV
    Jens V.
    15 August 2019 @ 21:03
    Amazing. Thanks for sharing your thoughts Raoul. I completely second what you said about the European debt crisis in 2012. Here in Scandinavia it wasn’t a big deal, but we felt the effects by the sheer number of Spanish people that came here to find work - same as Greek, Portuguese, etc. A Spanish friend I have came from a wealthy family and lived off the family estate. In 2014 most of the family’s property was seized by the government with close to no compensation. He was forced to move to Sweden to find work and now works night shifts in a warehouse. His education in Spanish history wasn’t of much help in the Swedish job market... Amazing how that whole crisis was swept under the rug by ECB magic (and thus launching the huge interest rate convergence trade). Problem is that it was only possible because the bailed out nations were relatively small compared to the eurozone as a whole. Like the US bailing out Puerto Rico. It’s gonna be an entirely different matter to bail out the Italian and French banks. And next time it will have to be done in an even more contentious political climate. Lagarde has her work cut out for her if this plays out in any way close to what Raoul is saying. I am knee deep in gold and silver mining stocks and options on eurodollar futures. The Dec 19 and Mar 20 expiries have gone up seven fold in the past few weeks.. also holding some Jun 20 and will add Sep 20. These things have great convexity and this could be just the beginning. Short CNHJPY still looks good - the JPY will rise violently if things really get ugly. Short EURUSD is currently a must have. The ECB will have to be extremely dovish in their Sep meeting and will have to invent some really strange stuff to keep things together. There will be new acronyms to learn! And what about the knock-on effects of all this? Just mind blowing.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:53
      Thanks for sharing especially your specific trades
    • DR
      David R.
      15 August 2019 @ 23:53
      Mostly nicb, but long EURUSD from 1.103 with initial target 1.18-1.20, secondary target toward 1.30 ..... if u learn eilliottwave theory (the same the foresaw the gold surge for this year and its collapse in 2013). the reasoning would be clear. Dollar is very bearish and only a rise about 1.04 on DXY (where it traded near the start of 2017) would invalidate. Bearish ever since, and the dollar bear market rally, pathetic weak & overlapping on the charts, turned at perfect 618 fibonacci ratio and has likely ended, or nearly ended subject to one potential last gasp slightly higher before the dollar violent dollar collapse begins. Who knows why, but US QE looks 99% certain this autumn given how bankrupt the US is and its out-of-control spending and massive twin deficits, by far the worst in human history. At least Europe is almost solvent in comparison to the hopelessly bankrupt USA, which per Princeton Economics this week has $420-trillion in unfunded pensions & healthcare costs against only $20-trillion total economy. LOL. Hopeless!
  • WW
    William W.
    15 August 2019 @ 20:50
    Passion...I love it..."truth in finance"...more love...there IS a war on truth in North America for sure. I'll be heading for the Mediterranean for 3 weeks in about a month...and I'm kinda nervous I'll miss any action and also nervous just to be there...guess I'll load up on Euros before the trip. Thanks for your great work...
    • SM
      Sarit M.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:28
      Did you mean Euros or Euro dollars?
    • WW
      William W.
      16 August 2019 @ 00:07
      LOL...Euros for spending...
  • SS
    Steven S.
    15 August 2019 @ 20:08
    Simply exceptional analysis! Raoul, you're always ...errr ...ahead of the curve. Thank you again.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    15 August 2019 @ 19:50
    Good stuff...............getting my tin-foil hat ready!
  • TS
    Trevor S.
    15 August 2019 @ 19:47
    Thank you for your candor, Raoul. Whether all of this plays out on the tape is left to be seen but no one can argue you're not here trying to help small offices and retail investors alike.
  • SL
    Simon L.
    15 August 2019 @ 19:39
    thx for the update, I really like the content !
  • BW
    Benjamin W.
    15 August 2019 @ 19:35
    "Things are now in motion that cannot be undone" - Gandalf
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    15 August 2019 @ 18:38
    Thanks so much 😀
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    15 August 2019 @ 18:29
    Thank you.
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:58
    Thank you for the update. So dollar is getting stronger due to global dollar shortage. It looks that Fed can provide dollar swap for Euro to ECB, It been done at least one time before, during 2008 crisis. It looks that everyone needs weaker dollar, and they will do "whatever it takes " That would make dollar trade, loosing trade.
  • SH
    Sean H.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:44
    Raoul Takes big balls to lay it all out there. Right or wrong it is much appreciated and duly noted. Thank you.
  • AD
    A D.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:41
    Hi Raoul, thank you for the series and “sticking your neck out” I followed the tweetspat with JW and even though I like Joe’s work I now get why you are so passionate and may be a little hurt. Made me think though- what would make you decide that as in 2012 the regional problems (dire as they were/are) did not pierce US economy and send it into death spiral? Strong opinions loosely held, right? What are the mitigants in your view? Weakening US dollar? CPI? Inside of the stock market? What can break the thesis? That’s what I am thinking about, you enjoy your well earned vacation though. Cheers, Anton.
  • F
    Floyd .
    15 August 2019 @ 17:41
    Raoul,I sincerely appreciate the candor and straight forward commentary. This is extremely uncharacteristic of the financial news services(the reason I watch very little). Please resist the temptation to popularize the information sacrificing the honesty and integrity of the extraordinary work you all do at Real Vision.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:32
    Aren't we at the point where EVERYONE understands negative rates don't work? Why are we so convinced that we keep going down the same path? Hell, I actually believe raising rates in Europe would probably be more stimulative than lowering them. It seems to me that some version of MMT will likely take the place of the next QE. I guess the issue is how long it takes to get to that point...
  • FD
    Francis D.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:24
    Looking forward for liquidations in $TLT and gold! :)
  • DS
    David S.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:15
    Although the discussion is about recession probabilities, the real paradyme shift is from a world were CBs could make a difference to a world where they can just try to provide liquidity. This is a new investment environment. Gold, bonds, safe havens are still the correct bets, but the ground under our feet will never be the same. This is not a disaster, but a different world. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      15 August 2019 @ 19:55
      See Mr. Ollari's Recession Video. He explains it much better. DLS
  • PM
    Patrick M.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:13
    Love ya bud
  • JM
    John M.
    15 August 2019 @ 16:55
    Raul, Thank you for the update and for the great investment advice. Needed a little patience but it's starting to payoff. I have been following some of your investment recommendations - gold, US treasuries, & USDs. I am doing extremely well! Joe Weisenthal?....who the hell is he....oh don't bother!
  • EP
    Eddy P.
    15 August 2019 @ 16:48
    Thanks Raoul, I and the wife are at the cusp of retirement and the information you are sharing has given me tools I would have never of found before Real Vision. The information available is invaluable. Preservation of capital and purchasing power at our age is crucial. Again, Thank You.
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    15 August 2019 @ 16:08
    Woah, Ed Harrison works at Real Vision now? Nice!
  • PV
    Paul V.
    15 August 2019 @ 15:26
    Great work. Thanks. I'm a simple guy and your team's work and efforts have made me money this year and I thank you. Paul
  • DJ
    D J.
    15 August 2019 @ 15:14
    Very well done Raoul, very well done indeed.
  • AY
    Alice Y.
    15 August 2019 @ 14:57
    This was incredible. Thanks Raoul for your work you have literally changed my life. I've learned how to think from you and it's a gift that keeps giving. Enjoy a well earned holiday.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    15 August 2019 @ 14:31
    Very well said. I was pondering the meaning of negative interest rates the other day and rested on the idea that a negative interest rate is an example fiscal policy dressed up as monetary policy. I wonder if others might share the same view. I guess it's reasonable to expect escalation of social disorder in a region of the world where fiscal policy is being dressed up as monetary policy and being implemented across the entire region where each nation within the region has its own fiscal policy presumably based on a democratic vote. Lagarde scares the crap out of me.
  • BM
    Beth M.
    15 August 2019 @ 14:08
    Thank you Raoul. I find these updates incredibly helpful...as they provide me with clarity on my investment path.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    15 August 2019 @ 13:51
    I was running a business in Argentina through the 2000 crisis and saw unbelievable things. Massive lay off's; line up's outside banks that never opened for weeks; regular middle class people selling their possessions in the street in the hope of raising enough money to feed their kids; savings wiped out; property sold for cents on the dollar. It was awful. Since that time, I have always been super concerned about where the QE experiment would lead to and stunned by how complacent people are in the U.S., that thought such a thing can never happen here. Well done Raoul for waking up at least some of us.
  • lD
    lance D.
    15 August 2019 @ 13:44
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA i nearly wet my self when Raoul admits that he had to buy canned food & rice - id of moved country too, i also draw the line at canned food - i now know your a marks & sparks man - thats comment has tickled me ...but in all seriousness thanks for the heads up with this video, its not a nice feeling that folks maybe out there unaware what could happen to them in their personal lives . keep up the good work RV - what s it going to be campbells soup or canned caviar ? LOL
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      15 August 2019 @ 13:57
      Yeah, wasn't so humorous at the time. Shops were being emptied.
    • DC
      Dan C.
      15 August 2019 @ 15:55
      What a moronic comment...
  • DV
    Donald V.
    15 August 2019 @ 13:25
    Long US bonds has been doing really well this year but I feel that those going in there now missed most of the upside already. Bond liquidity has me worried as I imagine many are buying the bond ETFs as opposed to buying an actual bond until maturity. Demand > Supply makes the price go up. But if the recession hits and it hits hard buying into these corporate bond ETF's might be a false positive strategy, you think your money is safe while it's not.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      15 August 2019 @ 13:37
      10 yr bond yields are going to zero. Lots and lots left in the trade.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    15 August 2019 @ 13:21
    good stuff to know.... Re Chrisiting Lagard/ECB I vote for -8% rates or maybe -20%... if "we" are going to be stupid and try stuff that only works in academia why not go balls to the wall... after all is -2% is "good" surely -20% is 10X better right?
    • PC
      Peter C.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:39
      Haha
  • JH
    James H.
    15 August 2019 @ 12:41
    It takes balls to stick your neck out and say this. Well done mate.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    15 August 2019 @ 12:25
    I would add this this risk: as the probability of recession goes up, the probability of President Trump losing goes up as well. I think this dramatically increases the probability of a military confrontation with Iran, because: A- If he loses the next president is likely to go back to Obama deal and there are many powerful forces who wouldn't want to risk that B- The American people tend to rally behind presidents in war time improving chances of him winning C- In recession oil prices drop and Saudi Arabia needs high oil prices for Aramco to go public... just a thought
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      16 August 2019 @ 12:24
      I agree with you. I don't think the Iran thing is over; just on ice over the summer months. Potentially Syria too. And i don't exclude China or Russia being involved on the other side. Either flash point could provide a useful distraction in an election year but would bring even further uncertainty for the markets. Long gold is the only answer.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      19 August 2019 @ 04:12
      Interesting counter point. Pres Bush the first had a very "popular" war, which he won. But then lost his re-election ballot on the economy. I hope this means we don't need a war to get out of this mess.
  • AW
    Agus W.
    15 August 2019 @ 12:13
    Just wanted to say thanks to Raoul and Real Vision team for all the education and sharing through the platform. Have lived through the Asian Financial Crisis as a adolescent and though I do not know how it compares to whats happening in Europe now, it was day after day of suicide articles at some point in South East Asia. Total respect for Raoul and team for sticking their necks out just to inform us based on facts and non-sensationalist manner.
  • RI
    R I.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:52
    Who the heck cares about Europe? Just stop talking about it. All that matters is the USA!
    • HH
      HODL H.
      15 August 2019 @ 12:07
      Hopefully u r trolling
    • MT
      Mike T.
      15 August 2019 @ 13:12
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      15 August 2019 @ 20:13
      Congrats, you win the most ignorant comment of the day award.
    • TW
      Thorne W.
      15 August 2019 @ 23:13
      People, I think he was being sarcastic.
    • WM
      Will M.
      16 August 2019 @ 00:15
      Fell a bit flat RI eh? If Europe goes down we in the US are going with it, just a bit later on........ The financial interconnections are too complex to unravel without major damage.
    • AJ
      Aaron J.
      16 August 2019 @ 05:36
      He probably *hopefully* was being sarcastic, but sarcasm doesn’t work very well in a text forum.
  • DR
    David R.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:50
    Total respect Raoul - no b******* , saying it how it is and with massive passion for the average person in the street .
  • MB
    Matt B.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:49
    Simply tremendous.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:09
    Things are starting to get ugly at General Electric following Madoff Whistleblower Harry Markopolos' accounting report.
    • DV
      Donald V.
      15 August 2019 @ 13:27
      GE is so 20th century
  • DH
    Dean H.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:00
    Raw, intelligent, timely, based on facts to derive well-considered potential outcomes. Raoul, I fucking love your videos and analysis. When these massive junctures occur, as they are right now on so many charts, like you said on Twitter one has to sit up and pay attention. Wankers like Joe don't seem to have empathy for the plight of people in Europe (especially the poor bastards in Cyprus). One day he may find his U.S. bank accounts frozen taking a 20% clip off his life's savings so he can bail-in the insolvent banks. That seems to be the new IMF playbook.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:43
    Looks like Raoul has a bit of red eye. He needs a well deserved rest. Enjoy your holidays! Thank you for the ED trade idea. Made quite a bit of the Dec2020 Call options with 99 Strike.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      15 August 2019 @ 11:17
      Can confirm I need a holiday...
    • SS
      Steve S.
      15 August 2019 @ 11:24
      Yes you do. Reminds me of what The Dalai Lama said, when asked what surprised him most about humanity, he said: “Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”
    • IO
      Igor O.
      15 August 2019 @ 13:47
      ED 98 Dec19 worked, just like you said Raoul.
  • AP
    A P.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:17
    You can also add Argentina to your assessment Raoul...
  • NH
    Nils H.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:16
    Thank you very much for these scary insights. If rates really go into seriously negative territory, what asset class is there left for European retirees to shift their assets into? This is something that worries me.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:07
    Japanese and European banks are breaking long time lows, signalling orthodox ahead. will this have any influence on Eurodollars, as these deposits are held at banks outside the US?
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      15 August 2019 @ 12:14
      I mean "problems" not "ortodox"...:)
  • SB
    Simon B.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:05
    I just want thank Raoul and the RV team for all the awesome work you do. It’s not just about making money. By protecting people’s wealth and saving them from financial hardship you guys are actually saving lives!!!!! You guys are truely lifesavers 🙏
  • ns
    niall s.
    15 August 2019 @ 09:34
    Canned food and Generators in Javea now that’s a stretch for the bounds of credibility. Bankia now that I believe.
  • MF
    Maryam F.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:56
    I completely agree with Raul on Europe and what happened around 2012. Completely hammered the Spanish, businesses, people and banks. Only last year managed to sell up property after 5 years on the market, miraculously. Have taken all funds out of any Spanish banks. I am a Brit but half Spanish, have spent a lot of time there and you do see the side that is not widely reported. Whenever a woman is positioned in a leading political or economic role, rather than being cheered by that (which I know I should, being a woman), I hear alarm bells that shit is going down...
    • KV
      Konstantin V.
      15 August 2019 @ 10:35
      Hi Maryam, thank you for sharing your experience! Could you please give more details on what has happened with the housing market in Spain? Or if you know a good article that explains the dynamics?
    • MF
      Maryam F.
      15 August 2019 @ 16:31
      Hi Konstantin It is a murky and messy scandal involving selling massive mortgages/ loans in the years leading up to the crisis then repossessions by banks after the crisis when many lost their jobs and could not afford repayments and the housing market stagnated. Mortgage floor clauses that didn’t allow variable rates to drop to the low Euribor rates meant that people couldn’t benefit from the lower rates. The banks that went down had their repossessed unsold properties and debt bought on the cheap by big well known international investment firms’ so called ‘vulture’ funds (mainly US ones). Housing institutes and local governments also sold up housing and commercial stock to these big players who would then rent them out at much higher rates. E.U. law got behind the mortgage floor clause scandal and a PPI type repayment scheme is underway but the current socialist Spanish government is now going fully red and sanctioning private and corporate owners of empty homes and bringing in forced rentals. They are also now trying to enforce laws to curb tourist letting by property owners to prevent tourism ‘spoiling’ certain areas. An absolute mess.
    • TW
      Thorne W.
      15 August 2019 @ 23:16
      That's right, The Women Are Smarter.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:50
    Great stuff, Raoul - thank you.
  • NC
    Nathanael C.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:40
    I respect bravery. Thanks Raol
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:24
    Raoul is spot on about Greece, spent 6 weeks with family there in 2017. The last European banking crisis destroyed an already fragile economy. They still have great people, food and scenery, but any hope of prosperity has disappeared, and the country is still dealing with it today.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 August 2019 @ 09:40
      I think what Brussels, the IMF and others did to Greece by piling on all the debt was worse than war economically and psychologically. Only the death count was lower. The IMF and the rest saved the banks and the wealthy who made stupid loans. After a war you start at zero, not forever in debt. DLS
    • DV
      Donald V.
      15 August 2019 @ 13:32
      in 2015 most merchants in Mykonos had bank accounts outside Greece. I assume that money is still being kept outside Greek banks.
  • bm
    brian m.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:19
    Does this mean that the Eurodolar futures can go over 100 with negative interest rates on the Libor?
    • TE
      Tim E.
      25 August 2019 @ 23:03
      There are contracts with strikes above 100 already
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    15 August 2019 @ 08:14
    Thanks Raoul. DLS said it superbly well! You and the whole team at Real Vision have been a breath of fresh air since you first launched and have helped so many of us get a better understanding of the probabilities (as you correctly quote) of how markets might play out. By comparison the sound bite offerings and establishment biased opinions of the presenters and most studio experts of the two mainstream financial channels are a waste of valuable time! Real Vision is the future for independent serious market and economic analysis. Have a great holiday!
  • DS
    David S.
    15 August 2019 @ 07:38
    Thank you for communicating this ASAP. All indications I can see confirm your urgency. I am on holiday in the Swiss Alps for a month. I will sleep well since RVTV prepared me. I know it will be difficult for you to be on holiday, but it is also necessary for your health. Thanks for all your help. DLS
  • BH
    Bin H.
    15 August 2019 @ 06:53
    I would like to know is there any concrete evidence that China is short of dollars in addition to gold story?
    • JS
      John S.
      15 August 2019 @ 09:11
      Read the works of Jeff Snider
  • EP
    Eli P.
    15 August 2019 @ 06:17
    Short Joe Weisenthal.-the best trade for 2019 thanks raoul - you are no .1
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      16 August 2019 @ 00:03
      And Grant is up there too. i was long gold even before Real Vision was founded but it was Grant (and his respect for gold) that helped me understand that i had not lost my mind. Thanks to his and Raoul's guidance, I am now ~ 50% in physical and gold miners (the balance in bonds and currency hedges) and sleep soundly at night, knowing that RV could not have prepared this retiree better for such a moment.
  • JS
    John S.
    15 August 2019 @ 06:05
    Good Man! Thank you Raoul
  • HA
    Harrison A.
    15 August 2019 @ 05:31
    Sobering. I believe your assessment of the probabilities is spot on, though I hope you are wrong. I fear the world is primed for social unrest. Can anyone imagine how bail outs, or bail ins would be received in today’s social climate? Long dollars, gold, and bonds. Short Joe Weisenthal.
    • JL
      John L.
      16 August 2019 @ 02:42
      Raoul Thank you for the great work you do. My account is too small to play the big Euro dollar trade you suggest. I am playing it my buying XLF December 20 puts. I started July 30th and have made several more purchases to a winning trade. If rates are going down U.S. banks will also suffer. The feds excess reserves on deposit https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS are falling. Yes we are dealing with probability. My $$$ is on real vision and Michael Oliver Thank you again