Defensive Investing in an Uncertain World

Published on
January 11th, 2019
Topic
Monetary policy, Recession, Financial System
Duration
71 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit

Defensive Investing in an Uncertain World

The Interview ·
Featuring Victor Sperandeo

Published on: January 11th, 2019 • Duration: 71 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Monetary policy, Recession, Financial System

Victor Sperandeo, President & CEO of EAM Partners, sits down with Adam Rodman, founder and portfolio manager at Segra Capital Management, to break down the relationship between shifting political tides and macroeconomic trends. Sperandeo provides his view on the history of recessions in the United States and on the current inflationary environment. Filmed on January 3, 2019 in Dallas.

Comments

  • Kv
    Kristian v.
    28 January 2019 @ 04:49
    Overall a good video but I would like to quickly correct something Victor said, where I believe he misspoke. At the start of the video Victor references a book by William Gordon. He claims that in his book William Gordon demonstrated via regression analysis that buying and selling market indicies on some simple rules around penetration of the 200 day moving average resulted in an 18.5% compounded return for the 60 or so years leading up to the book’s publication. When I heard this number I was astounded (as was the interviewer, by his reaction). It sounded too good to be true. 
Turns out it is. What William Gordon actually demonstrated was an 18.5% simple return over the years that one would have been invested should one have followed those rules. The regression period was base on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 70 years from 1897 to 1967 and one would have been invested for 42.7 years of those 70 years. If one were to look at the entire 70 year span the return would have dropped to only 11.3% simple return. The return would only have amounted to 6.42% compounded return over those 70 years. Not the 18.5% suggested by Vic. Just for comparisons sake, had one been fully invested for the entire 70 years, instead of trying to time the market using the 200 day moving average, your compounded return would have been 11.3%. Almost double.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    27 January 2019 @ 09:31
    A must watch. I have great respect for Victor’s perspective given he has seen cycles since 1968. Also quite enjoy how he compared every market/economic indicator for the last 50-150 years.
  • DF
    Darren F.
    24 January 2019 @ 15:55
    does anyone have any links or sources to the comment of the center left loosing 94% of elections in 2017?
  • RL
    Rui L.
    21 January 2019 @ 16:34
    Tried to filter me some bullets... just sharing. Tks Vic, tks Adam, tks RV. - We're in a bear market. It's 100%. ... as far as I'm concerned, unless something changes. - ... Now, when you have the Fed raising rates, as Jerome Powell did ... that is a fundamental event. Everybody knows, that's why everybody follows the Fed, that if they're raising rates, markets don't like this, and you're taking away the punchbowl, was the old expression. And basically, you go into recession every time the Fed does this. - ... if you change the fundamentals, you change the outcomes. So if they back off from right now selling QT, and the rise -- the two more increases in interest rates-- you have to consider that. - ... So what the markets are saying now, all things being equal, in July you're going to be in a recession in the United States. - ... inflation will decline because oil has declined. - ... The European Union cannot survive. Now predicting when a sort of a nation ends is a very bad thing for traders to do, because you look at the Soviet Union, they lasted 72 years. So you can't-- they always have tricks that they put forth. So I don't know when the European Union will break up, but it will. ... - (on equities) ... The short side is a difficult thing to play at this level, because there's an incentive for Trump and Xi Jinping to do a deal. They do a deal on trade, the markets are going to rally. I mean, there's going to be a psychological big move up. That would be the time to short. But, you know, not the first day or the first week or even maybe after three weeks. But the key is that's coming. ... - ... The Fed is never going to be able to complete what it said it was going to do. That's not going to help. The key is, what does it do with its balance sheet? Because that is where the rubber meets the road. If they continue to sell, then we're going to see something in the order of a 37, or a 29, 30. - ... So I'm an investor in gold. I'm an investor in silver, in the physical. - ... So mining stocks are actually better than the physical, unless the world has real problems. And then the physical is better than the mining stocks. - ... It's a real Rothschild arbitrage. The banks have put themselves in a position to purely arbitrage the interest. Nothing can happen to them. - ... you buy extreme weakness, because you know the Fed's going to come in. At this point they have. They don't want, really, the markets to continue to go down. They've stabilized them. - You have to be a manipulator. You have to do it when it's quiet. Then you buy it up, and that's the way that the game works.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    18 January 2019 @ 20:54
    I became a fan of Trader Vic when he was interviewed year(s) back regarding Lehman & the Option Houses. If I have this right, $198 billion to save Lehman, which represented like 8% equity money for the CDS, CDO's, with the rest leveraged, which could have been ordered cancelled, i.e., no financial crisis or at least a LOT less. Goldman S, J. Paulson, Bernake and the Clinton's played us for fools in 2008. We've all become pawns in a continual dysfunctional government who can't manage themselves, god-forbid run our great nation. I believe raising interest rates saves the financials and especially PENSION funds modeled on 6-8% compounded year over year return. Thanks Victor & Adam for a fine interview.
    • SS
      Sam S.
      18 January 2019 @ 21:59
      Sorry, Hank Paulson.
  • GB
    Grant B.
    17 January 2019 @ 12:07
    Excellent.
  • KD
    Karl D.
    16 January 2019 @ 06:24
    Only an American could push through their own cognitive dissonance to argue that tax cuts for the rich are going to help the "serfs". Ironically, Victor seems to think that it's others have have the ideological problem, but it was his own commentary that was saturated with ideology. I couldn't sit through any more.
    • CA
      Craig A.
      16 January 2019 @ 09:06
      Tax cuts aren't just for the rich. Its for anyone who makes more than $75k. Unless you think $75k is rich. Stop watching the propganda and use that logically part of the brain to analyse things properly. Look I don't agree with all of the thing hes said and the first quarter of the interview was just bad. From there onwards it was really quite good.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    16 January 2019 @ 04:10
    I appreciate Victor's comments about rate hikes and the business cycle, but interest rates are already at extreme historical lows. That should be plenty of stimulus. Insurance companies, pensions, et al need to be considered. Rates can't stay this low for decade after decade or these entities will be bankrupt. Low rates are also crushing retirees trying to live on meager savings (earning nothing) and social security. Powell is doing the right thing in my mind regardless of whether or not stocks and real estate take a hit. We simply must check out of monetary Hotel California. The longer we wait, the worse it gets.
  • OC
    OTTO C.
    16 January 2019 @ 00:06
    Great interview! I am a bit puzzled by Victor's criticism of the FED rate increases because I don't think that the FED has any options at this late cycle stage. Am I missing something here?
    • LB
      Lerey B.
      21 January 2019 @ 05:58
      It is not that interest rates should not go up. They should go up. The fed simply raised them too much too fast. And at a time when the economy is sensitive. They could have raised them 2010-2015, slowly, and had us up around 3 or 4% by now and everything would have still been fine. The problem is that they didn't start soon enough so the whole world got addicted to the interest rates being this low.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    15 January 2019 @ 17:40
    Totally enjoyed this video -- Victor Sperandeo is a great source of information and thumbs up to Adam as an interviewer. The take away I have from this video is the "New Rules" that started back in 2014 in regard to US treasury auctions -- this yet again demonstrates the insanity and the complete fraudulent banking system that underlies our world economy. Fake auctions, fake money, fake economy. The fact that the FED purposely makes it so difficult to find out, just shows how criminal this organization really is and how much this country and the world desperately needs a transparent honest monetary system. You can literally trace the majority of the world's major problems and unrest back to the Central Banks and their fiat money Recently, I discovered that it was in 1983 when the FED broke from its targeting quantity of credit (M1) to targeting the price of credit (Fed Funds Rate). This bit of information was never formally announced by Chairman Volcker, but could be found in a reading of the Fed minutes. I love how Volcker today, has the nerve to preach about the hell of a mess we are in - when it was him and his cronies at the FED which by simply changing their targets from credit supply to credit cost that allowed our debt fueled Ponzi scheme economy to come into existence in the first place. The hypocrisy of the Central Bankers and their banking accomplices on Wall Street and in the City of London is deplorable and has no bounds. I just bought a magnetic sticker for the back of my car that reads: End the FED.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      15 January 2019 @ 22:18
      I’m with you Kathleen, maybe we should get Danielle DiMartino Booth’s permission to get some “Fed Up” bumper stickers as well.
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      16 January 2019 @ 15:21
      Sorry Robert -- I AM NO FAN of DiMartino Booth --- she actually advocates for Central Banking, she just thinks the FED needs to be restructured. Booth is classic "controlled opposition" - she is leading the movement by saying the central bankers are a bunch of academics, rather than what they really are: frauds and charlatans who know exactly what they are doing and that their policies are making our economic situation worse and making the rich richer. To understand the FED's ruse all one has to do is watch the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's Uncle Leo gets caught shop lifting and then cries, he is old and gets easily confused - DiMartino Booth is here to back up this ploy. I mean even the title of her book is misleading "Fed UP" - if you didn't know anything about her, it makes you think she wants to end the FED -- and this is not the case. Look at her bio, which is full of holes that make no sense, she gets noticed and subsequently hired by Richard Fisher because she harshly criticizes Allan Greenspan in the Dallas Morning Star?? If the guys at the FED, according to Booth herself, think they are doing a great job, why would they hire a reporter whose prior financial experience is selling junk bonds and who actually thinks that are doing an awful job??? Does this make any sense to you? I don't buy a word of what this woman says.
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      16 January 2019 @ 16:43
      I am not sure how my reply to Robert ended up looking like a reponse to the recent video, but Robert I wrote that I am no Fan of DiMartino Booths.
  • JB
    Jason B.
    15 January 2019 @ 07:59
    I have interviewed Victor Sperandeo once before. Great insights. I am in really impressed that he has read over 3,000 books.
  • GM
    George M.
    15 January 2019 @ 07:25
    Best interview I’ve seen on RV
  • WB
    William B.
    15 January 2019 @ 05:32
    I’ve known about Victor for 20-30 years, but learned tons in this interview. Possibly the best so far on RV or RVT if you have been an original subscriber like me.
  • bc
    bo c.
    15 January 2019 @ 01:13
    The interviewer did a great job at clarifying and guiding the discussion!
  • DR
    David R.
    14 January 2019 @ 23:18
    Appreciated his candor about missing out on the zirp-inflated fake bull run in US stocks because he couldn't believe policymakers would be as irresponsible & reckless as they've been. No doubt there have been many years of US policy-driven markets in which passive "investing", BTFD and the so-called dumb money has thrived, but 2018 might have been a watershed moment (if not, then perhaps before long). As eventually one day the wizard's wand won't work anymore and everyone will see it was all just a sham.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    14 January 2019 @ 19:31
    The talk is sincere and honest from a great trader. I like the his thought process: data based bold guess.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    14 January 2019 @ 18:59
    Victor, after ten plus years don't you think the screwing given to the pensioners, retirees, producers/makers with ZIRP is enough? Greatest transfer of wealth in history, all of the presidents bankers have put us on Pluto and now have no way to get back without being exposed.
    • DR
      David R.
      14 January 2019 @ 23:02
      No. Worse, it's been too much zirp. Symptomatic of a corrupt, failing society.
  • SH
    Simon H.
    14 January 2019 @ 07:34
    Victor, please make your books available via audiobook, I would love to listen to them.
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    14 January 2019 @ 02:26
    It's always awesome to listen to Trader Vic.
  • DP
    David P.
    14 January 2019 @ 02:09
    The ratings are enlight
    • DP
      David P.
      14 January 2019 @ 02:12
      enlightening. I now understand why most french companies in the CAC 40 are priced close to their 2008 low compared to their moving average. After Steve Bannon and this fine gentleman, is RV going to invite Robert Mercer?
  • PE
    Per E.
    14 January 2019 @ 01:03
    You lost me when arguing that there is unlimited demand for treasuries when we have been seeing some treasury auctions recently with the lowest bid-to-cover in a decade... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/treasury-bond-auction-draws-weakest-demand-in-nearly-a-decade-1541629316
    • EM
      Elean M.
      14 January 2019 @ 01:55
      Hey didn't say treasury demand would go unchanged. His argument is that due to deregulation within th financial industry, there will always be an incentive for major financial institutions to hold treasuries. He never stated they had to hold any specific amount.
    • PE
      Per E.
      14 January 2019 @ 14:34
      His exact words were “The government can sell all the debt it wants. There is no (pause), deficits and debts does not matter.” Good luck believing that one. If this was true and banks can hold all the government debt it wants to maturity without any negative implications. There would be no treasuries held by banks for sale (which there are), they would just be reclassified as held to maturity. Banks would never have a trading loss in the treasury market, move all negative positions over to “held to maturity”. I would also argue if this is really free money without negative implications, the 10-year rate would not be 2.7%. One of the banks would simply buy up all the supply and push rates close to zero.
    • MB
      M B.
      18 January 2019 @ 22:00
      You read the transcript and it makes even less sense - yet everyone here backslapping - it's embarrassing.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    13 January 2019 @ 22:30
    Thank you RV very very helpful been a long holder of Physical for a long time!!!! This is why I'm a founding member of RV !!!! WELL DONE!!!
  • BP
    Bob P.
    13 January 2019 @ 14:03
    Great discussion. Very helpful
  • MS
    Mark S.
    13 January 2019 @ 12:39
    Like watching Lou Dobbs for a full hour
    • MB
      Mo B.
      16 January 2019 @ 00:58
      I am Not sure if you’re saying it was good or bad.
  • BM
    Beat M.
    13 January 2019 @ 09:50
    Very good interview, what a knowledge of data! As for why there’s no inflation and what happens with printed money by the cb’s (both were a little bit „wobbly” on that point), in my view Jeffrey Snider has it right, it doesn’t matter what cb’s print, it’s all a “man behind the curtain” show, psychology, mass illusion/delusion phenomena. The Eurodollar system cracked in 2008, it’s broken ever since, the addict is on cold turkey, going into the terminal state of convulsions, at that level an injection will not give you a new high, you’ll be lucky not to flatline.
    • BM
      Beat M.
      13 January 2019 @ 10:54
      I just realized, that I contradicted myself, it doesn’t matter what cb’s do, the economy will flatline, because the Eurodollar systems are broken. The narrative of “the fed is to blame” is so easy to swallow, it is maybe the blind side of most contrarians, everybody needs a bogeyman.
    • DR
      David R.
      14 January 2019 @ 22:51
      Maybe so but I really Snider doesn't "get" the market. His extreme bullishness about the dollar since 2017 inclusive has been dead wrong. The dollar chart is very bearish at present, in the late stages (if not over) an ABC recovery, and USD failed to come anywhere close to recapturing 104 nor spike like he has long predicted. The dollar is bearish below 104 and is headed toward 80. A doillar free-fall is next, not a spike. Remember when USD was 168 in 1985? Now just 95. Sad!
  • KM
    Kevin M.
    13 January 2019 @ 08:33
    Terrific interview. And where did Adam get those boots?
  • CW
    C W.
    13 January 2019 @ 07:46
    It's a most interesting and educational interview. There's one bit I do not get though. I understand that banks do not have to set aside capital reserves when they purchase sovereign bonds. But they would still have to pay upfront for the bonds upfront, don't they? In the US this would take the form of debiting a banks' balance at the federal reserve account and crediting the Treasury's account. If it does not have sufficient reserves at its Fed account, it will not be able to pay for the bond, so its capacity to buy are limited. Of course it can repo the bond out to pay but someone else's bank balance (or the Fed reserve account balance if it's another bank lending out the money) will still have to be debited. As I missing something important here?
    • DS
      David S.
      14 January 2019 @ 00:56
      I am not a banker, but I assume that these are bank deposits from individual, corporations etc. Instead of loaning the money to a business that needs a default reserve, the bank loans to a CB where a reserve is not needed. When the Euro CB promulgated this rule, it distorted the risk curve as you have Germany and Greece sovereign debt at the same risk. This is my guess. Hopefully someone will do a better job if I am wrong. DLS
    • CW
      C W.
      14 January 2019 @ 15:26
      Really appreciate your response. Unfortunately it's too late where I am and I am too drunk to fashion a proper response. I hope to get back to you on this subject soon. But swirling in my mind are stuff like capital reserve & capital adequacy ratio vs reserve money in the Fed account, money creation when a loan is made but not when a bond is purchased(?), ... etc
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    12 January 2019 @ 22:29
    Good interview. However, Vic is a trader - it would have been great to focus this discussion on his trading rather than macro fundamentals!
  • RK
    Roger K.
    12 January 2019 @ 21:54
    Very good interview. Both are Superb!
  • BS
    Bernd S.
    12 January 2019 @ 21:50
    Sorry if I missed this, but has Victor "revealed" what the reserve requirements are for banks buying treasury securities as hope to maturity? Or in balance sheet terms: when a bank records the treasury on the asset side, what is it recording on the liability side?
  • JF
    Joanne F.
    12 January 2019 @ 20:47
    This interview is enough to convince me to renew my subscription! Just wow!
  • MP
    Mark P.
    12 January 2019 @ 19:48
    Wow awesome interview! Just made my top 10 on RV
  • RA
    Robert A.
    12 January 2019 @ 19:03
    Great to see Trader Vic sit for an in depth interview! I love to read his comments and thank him for staying so engaged with we fellow RV’ers.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    12 January 2019 @ 17:31
    The best Tvm!
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    12 January 2019 @ 17:11
    Wow! The praise from my fellow subscribers for this man is totally merited. He is one smart fellow whose trading record speaks for itself. What impressed me just as much was his equally impressive understanding of economics, politics, human psychology and the danger the greedy global elites are running with their smug serf strategy. Right up there with the Stan Druckenmiller video. I could have listened to him for hours!
  • MK
    Mike K.
    12 January 2019 @ 14:45
    Victor (AKA Trader Vic) is an absolute legend. His books were the first bought, when I stepped into the world of trading - highly recommended. What an absolute pleasure to listen to him once more.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    12 January 2019 @ 14:23
    Victor says buy Government Bonds and buy Gold Miners and Silver. He's right.
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    12 January 2019 @ 10:54
    I have watched this interview with great enthusiasm; 1. Victor has been right to the point in his investment ideas along with brief details! 2. He explained politics in a way that this has been strict game changer anytime in history 3. Where we are and what we should do So what else to expect from such an impressive investor! Thanks Victor & Adam!
  • FV
    Fredrik V.
    12 January 2019 @ 09:35
    Brilliant interview and narrative... young vs old, politics vs market, open questions vs bold statements.
  • LL
    Louis L. | Contributor
    12 January 2019 @ 05:43
    Good to hear Vic again. There is a lot that can be learned by listening to him. Listen to the process of his thinking. That’s the real gem, not necessarily his conclusions.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    12 January 2019 @ 03:51
    Such a gift to listen to Trader Vic, speaking his mind! I love how RV has created a forum to discuss our thoughts on these interviews, and I find the dispersion in mind sets between the older baby boomers, and the new millennials in the audience......absolutely enjoyable! No matter what your opinion is....if you can’t find something tangible to learn from his discussion, you are missing the whole point!!! Yes, he may be quirky in his delivery, and yes he may make political comments ( which are TRUE), he understands how the big con job is run, and who controls the power in the game, which is critical to “staying solvent”, as Jimmy Rogers said. Please learn to leave your ego at the door, and open your mind to the intellectual challenge of understanding the monetary world we live in, and try to create a framework for what is coming next, which isn’t pretty....time to get focused, and stay solvent. Very long Gold, silver and mining equities....Bring it on, I’m ready.
    • MJ
      Mark J.
      12 January 2019 @ 04:04
      This comment really disturbs me. The assumptions of other's ideologies playing a central role in their investment thesis is dangerous.
  • MJ
    Mark J.
    12 January 2019 @ 03:25
    This has to be one of the worst Real Vision interviews that I have seen in the past 3 years. To sum up this video: everything is political, and the answer to everything is politics.
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      12 January 2019 @ 04:47
      Understanding that politicians, and more specifically those bankers the politicians serve, run the show is indeed troubling. It is also the sad truth. Under the new regime of post 2008 banking rules, handed down to us from the Holy temple of BIS in Basel, commercial banks have been given free reign to print profit from the nations debt, without reserve requirement, without the need to mark the debt to market value, and without even the need of funds with which to buy the debt. This domain of magic money creation was once reserved solely for central banks dating back to 1913, so how nice is that of the centrals to share the wealth with their friendly commercial banks and their executives. Oh, and that debt that they bought for free, that debt is the burden placed upon the people of the nation, who are forced to pay through taxation and inflation. What is the debt bondage, or what we modern people call 'money' being used for? Blowing bubbles and making the ultra wealthy ultra wealthier.
    • MJ
      Mark J.
      12 January 2019 @ 04:52
      Angelo Z. I do not disagree. I am just stating that this video sounded more like a political piece than a financial piece. No doubt there is an issue in the foundation and soundness of money.
    • MJ
      Mark J.
      12 January 2019 @ 04:56
      For instance, whenever answering a question, Victor always references leaders of nations, and not any of the elements of their economies. Sure, there is a need to attribute some responsibility to leaders in some cases, but the leaders themselves are never the only factor.
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      12 January 2019 @ 05:06
      I didn't see what you did, to me he was merely discussing items in the context of how todays markets function, however distorted by politics they now are. Who can deny that a tweet doesn't impact the markets right now? How fragile is a market if a mere tweet can move it? How weak is sentiment when one wrong word from the mouth of a central banker can collapse confidence? The system is at peak fragility because of a central command and control monetary ideology, where the winners are never allowed to lose. This is post capitalism capitalism, where markets price everything incorrectly, and risk is hidden in the dark recesses of 'Non-GAAP Financial Measures'.
    • GM
      Gavin M.
      12 January 2019 @ 16:03
      Get help. Seriously.
    • CM
      C M.
      12 January 2019 @ 16:27
      Unfortunately politics is playing a big part in the movement of the market. Every up and down day over the last month has been a reaction to either Fed comments or trade (China) comments. Even Trump is tweeting to support the markets as insiders say he follows the market hourly, which as many of us know, is not a good way to manage policy longer term. And then the rumors of the plunge protection team stepping in to support the market after Xmas illustrates the role governments are playing worldwide in asset pricing.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 January 2019 @ 19:53
      Turn on cable TV and politics dominates almost every minute... that's all you need to know about it's influence.
    • MJ
      Mark J.
      12 January 2019 @ 21:30
      So I comment something negative, and it gets mass down-voted. Then get comments like "get help". This unfortunately shows how much worse the Real Vision community has gotten in the past year. Angelo Z. Thank you for putting up a real argument, even if in a roundabout way.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 January 2019 @ 22:00
      Mark J. - Thank you for your comments. I like the interview very much maybe because I think much of the market is driven by politics - or maybe I am driven by politics. They say the news runs the short trades and every day we get a bucket full of political news. If you watch it again, try to isolate on the non-political, especially trade tactics, I think you may see it from a different point of view. In my opinion thumbs up or down are often quick reactions to key words in the comment. I would like to see a more replies to comments. Keep commenting and replying to other’s comments. Thumbs up or down are not grades. DLS
    • MJ
      Mark J.
      12 January 2019 @ 22:21
      Thank you for the kind words David S. I stand by what I said, that the video feels more like a scattered political discussion, rather than a financial one. This does not mean that his ideologies do not align with mine. I am simply voicing that his viewpoint seems to be that everything happens for a political reason, and are never due to market forces. That said, I also am not saying that politics do not matter - as other commenters have mentioned - they clearly do matter to markets on a daily basis. Nevertheless, thank you for the words David S. and helping keep it civil! Big thumps up to you
    • ER
      Eric R.
      13 January 2019 @ 19:03
      Mark, I think Vic prefaced his political comments by saying that politics were one of many fundamental factors that influenced investing. I took away that he believed that the prevailing fundamental factor at this moment in time is political.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      14 January 2019 @ 15:59
      I cannot understand how you watched this and saw/heard only politics.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    12 January 2019 @ 03:14
    This guy has no understanding of how detrimental the overall and continued debt load on the economy is. Thats why we raised interest rates, as a futile attempt to slow it down and soften the inevitable global debt induced recession.
    • CM
      C M.
      12 January 2019 @ 16:30
      I don't believe Powell is raising rates to get the government to reduce fiscal spending and thus debt, though it would be a nice side effect. Believe Powell recognizes the markets are unbalanced and normal pricing needs to return to our capitaliist roots. But more importantly, the need for ammunition for the next downturn is in the forefront of his decisions.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    12 January 2019 @ 01:53
    off putting comments??? Really??? perhaps one man's cogent is another's off putting?
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    11 January 2019 @ 23:47
    Really
  • DS
    David S.
    11 January 2019 @ 23:17
    Great interview by both Victor and Adam. I liked Victor's trading strategies and tactics very much and will try to employ them, I think the Fed is just trying to have some ammunition by raising rates - not just being political. The Fed does try to be sensitive to the stock market, but the stock market is not the economy. Mr. Druckenmiller is looking to the Fed to continue to raise rates, but slide them in when no one is looking. There should not be a forever Fed put to keep the market from normal business and credit cycles. Essentially the Fed has an impossible job. DLS
    • BC
      Burton C.
      12 January 2019 @ 03:51
      No, actually in a financial bubble the stock market IS the economy. When the market rolls over the economy follows closely behind. That's the history of post bubble economies
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 January 2019 @ 20:05
      Actually .. remember one thing... the Fed is in business for two reasons. One to protect the banks at all cost and two to allow the government to deficit spend. They are all in bed together and this mumbo jumbo fed speak is designed to confuse the serfs. It's just that simple.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 January 2019 @ 14:54
      Burton C. – We disagree on this point. The market is still not the economy in a financial bubble. This thinking led to QE2 ad nauseam that rapidly expanded the deficit and denied the natural market cycles. Bubbles are attenuated by the business and credit cycles. When you keep interest rates too low, you invite bubbles and prevent their deflation. DLS
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    11 January 2019 @ 23:16
    Adam did an amazing job. He should do more of these.
    • JM
      John M.
      12 January 2019 @ 08:04
      At several points Adam did a very good job of summarizing the Victor's comments and drawing out the key points. However at the end he didn't - that would have been helpful. The interview meandered I thought. Nevertheless Victor made some very important points for example: - we are in a bear market, - we will be in recession by July - Gov't bonds, gold/gold miners are a good defensive move and gold may offer upside longer term. Its always a pleasure listening to Victor Sperandeo. That guy's got a ton of experience and he's a straight shooter! I would have preferred Raoul doing the interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:59
    I agree with the corporate tax reduction to have a level playing field worldwide. The problem is the huge increase in the government deficits which generations will have to repay. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:41
    Someone else can fact check, but I think Milton Friedman’s monetary model variables were the money supply and the velocity of money - not just the money supply. The velocity of money fell to almost nothing during QE ad nauseam. Dr. Friedman may have also said the inflation that did exist was in fixed assets and the stock market with markedly increased P/Es. With QT one would expect reductions in P/Es and fixed assets. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      20 January 2019 @ 09:30
      At least six thumbs down did not fact check. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:27
    As others, I think we are heading for a recession in earnings - maybe not an GDP recession as prices keep coming down with increased competition. Buyers are using the internet to compare and buy at the lowest price along with rising wages will keep margins under pressure. The main reason, however, for the decline in worldwide earnings is the dislocations and constantly changing tactics in the trade war. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:18
    Didn't the Fed respond to several temper tantrums when they tried to raise rates earlier. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      14 January 2019 @ 14:56
      I guess history can always be rewritten. DLS
  • dw
    douglas w.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:17
    Thanks Adam and Vic, two guys I always enjoy listening to.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    11 January 2019 @ 20:44
    ...thoughts on the current market environment. (Noticing there is no way to edit comments once max character limit is reached, when typing on phone). Thanks guys.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    11 January 2019 @ 20:41
    ...before he does another long-form interview. On that note, please have Mike Green back as an interviewer (and interviewee) - he is great on all counts and scary smart. Would be great to get his thoi
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    11 January 2019 @ 20:39
    Found this interesting and good to get Victor’s perspective. Disappointed in interviewer’s style amd several off-putting comments. Grant or someone more seasoned needs to train him before he does anlr
    • JM
      Jim M.
      14 January 2019 @ 15:48
      Disagree. Adam did very well and is a welcome fresh face.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    11 January 2019 @ 20:14
    Excellent interview. One of the best to date imho.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    11 January 2019 @ 19:16
    Brilliant man. Even if he belongs to the 1% club who couldn't love him for his honesty & down- to-earthness.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      13 January 2019 @ 06:35
      What do you mean by “even if...”? Why did you sub to RV if you have disdain for the 1%?
  • TE
    Tito E.
    11 January 2019 @ 17:39
    Trader Vic. Yes!
  • RK
    Roger K.
    11 January 2019 @ 15:27
    Hi Real visionaries, ( Victor has correctly mentioned that on the day FED started raising rates in 2015 , 10Y yield at 3.00 and it was 2.95 last night). Can someone care to explain why has the 10 year yield hasn't increased while FED FUNDS has been raised for 9 times from 0.25 to 2.25 ?
    • CB
      C B.
      11 January 2019 @ 15:48
      Because bond investors are expecting cuts over a ten year time frame, not raises
    • BC
      Burton C.
      12 January 2019 @ 03:54
      I think more accurately it's a reflection of the economy becoming weaker
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      12 January 2019 @ 04:55
      Because the debt is being bought up by non-economic buyers, buyers who don't care if future yields are higher. The Rules of the Bond Game - https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-rules-of-the-bond-game_2600435.html
    • JM
      Jim M.
      14 January 2019 @ 15:45
      Two reasons: 1 - The fundamental point that while the FED can control directly short term rates it can only influence long rates. 2 - With the world awash in government debt with negative yields the U.S. 10 year will be bid as it remains a strong relative alternative.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    11 January 2019 @ 14:47
    Another legend returns to RV. You guys are on a roll.
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    11 January 2019 @ 14:03
    Great trader, and market historian, he should stick to moving averages. His anti-globalist political views remind one of the 1930s.
    • CB
      C B.
      11 January 2019 @ 15:06
      Maybe stick to YouTube commentating :)
  • BC
    Burton C.
    11 January 2019 @ 11:58
    Trader Vic is a powerhouse, so glad he was brought to us. However, I was disappointed that they put a light weight up to interview him. This is almost a Druckenmiller type player, a more seasoned interviewer could have brought more to us. Someone who actually knew something about TA
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      11 January 2019 @ 13:28
      Lol how is Adam a lightweight?
    • HC
      Howard C.
      11 January 2019 @ 14:26
      Adam is a global macro tour de force. Wish he'd had time to talk about his U vehicle and some picks in that sector. Seems without exception that these guys with 40-50 years of success in the markets are all well-versed in economic history to the point that he can recall the bounce in 1934, depressions in 1870s, etc. More and more of the old hands gently suggesting the miners ....
    • RL
      Radu L.
      11 January 2019 @ 15:00
      way better than Michael Green who hijacks any interview and speaks as much(if not more than) as his guests...
    • SS
      Steve S.
      11 January 2019 @ 16:27
      Adam was great. Seems like you're the only one who thought otherwise.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      12 January 2019 @ 05:27
      Mike Green and Kyle Bass need to comment on the subject matter!!!!!! Then we can hear words of wisdom that help us find direction That will see us thru what ever the future holds. Thanks RV
    • RA
      Robert A.
      12 January 2019 @ 18:53
      Harry, you stole my comment—I was going to propose that a couple of heavyweights “attempt” to take apart Trader Vic’s thesis knowing full well that they indeed, might not be successful—however the discussion/debate of Trader Vic’s ideas might well be further illuminating! And Harry, what better team to “work the problem” than Mike and Kyle!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      12 January 2019 @ 18:58
      Burton, I have to chime in—I think Adam did a GREAT job with the interview. I also have really enjoyed his work and prior RV interface. Adam is the real deal, IMHO.
  • JP
    Jason P.
    11 January 2019 @ 11:49
    Victor has been my inspiration as a trader for years. Even as I was a BMX rider buying gold. Read his books! I was just sitting here wondering what this man thinks about the current markets. Thanks Real Vision.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    11 January 2019 @ 10:25
    A nice macro view of financial history in simple language. And how things will eventually play out from here. Like his view on Trump that I did not hear anywhere else, but is in fact true.
  • DS
    Dragos S.
    11 January 2019 @ 10:00
    Victor's back! I like that he often shares his views with us in the comment section so this video is a must see.

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