Raoul Pal in Conversation with Grant Williams

Published on
December 28th, 2018
Duration
69 minutes

Raoul Pal in Conversation with Grant Williams

The Interview ·
Featuring Grant Williams

Published on: December 28th, 2018 • Duration: 69 minutes

Raoul Pal talks to fellow Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams about his journey of knowledge and learning throughout the first series of ‘Conversations with,’ in which Grant uncovered some of the biggest underlying issues in financial markets, from frauds to broken business models and from hubris to speculative excess. They look ahead to 2019 and outline some of the challenges they see on the horizon. Filmed on December 20, 2018 in Grand Cayman.

Comments

  • KL
    Kathlyn L.
    31 January 2019 @ 00:11
    Grant loses credibility when he starts ranting about gold. Raoul is a sober voice against the madness of Grant and his gold obsession. Gold is there, it works and you can have you're own gold standard, there's not really much else to say. Grant gives great speeches about gold and I love seeing and listening to those talks but it's becoming ranting. Why this obsession with what the future monetary system is? It's unknowable and madness to obsess about this. The future will be like nothing you and I can imagine.
  • JM
    Jon M.
    11 January 2019 @ 21:25
    I actually think 'algos' will be banned. I think something will happen that is either caused by 'algos' or will be blamed on 'algos' and then there will be a move to ban them, in the attempt to stabilise the markets.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      16 February 2019 @ 18:47
      I kindly disagree. What is an “algo”? Is a limit order an algo? I think it is. Is a vwap an algo? Absolutely. Is telling your junior trader to execute slowly over 15 minutes into the close a human algo? Obviously yes.
  • KD
    Karl D.
    8 January 2019 @ 09:37
    "We must respect the other fellow's religion, but only in the sense and to the extent that we respect his theory that his wife is beautiful and his children smart." H. L. Mencken In Australia you can add "...and his property fairly valued",
  • bs
    bob s.
    7 January 2019 @ 21:58
    gold stocks....?? great talk
  • BP
    Byron P.
    6 January 2019 @ 05:27
    Grant really is a true gold bug talking through a mask to his friend Raoul. "It doesn't matter what price gold is"...... are you serious? Everything is relative Grant.
  • GN
    Gary N.
    6 January 2019 @ 03:58
    Totally awesome interview. I subscribed to RV a few months ago after Adventures in Finance finished, then I watched virtually all the catch up on a 16hr flight to SFO from Singapore on the 7th October, I sold everything I had before the plane stopped moving on the tarmac, that’s not a lie! Have been sat in cash ever since, so I guess it was worth the 180 dollars. As a total amateur I have no idea what do do now of course! Keep watching probably.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    5 January 2019 @ 16:48
    The part of the conversation that stood out to me starts on page 10 of the transcript. As I understand Grant and Raoul, algorithms, and machines capable of running them, have taken away any short-term advantage fund managers have. What does this mean? Should a retired person even be in the stock market? With all the other troublesome things out there, this fact seems to be the last straw to make a new investing world that requires a different perspective.
  • RT
    Ryan T.
    5 January 2019 @ 15:46
    Superb - thank you.
  • AV
    Adrianus V.
    5 January 2019 @ 04:34
    The 60 odd negative reviews must have been fat fingers...
  • TB
    Tad B.
    4 January 2019 @ 20:18
    Who thumbs-down these guys ?! Thanks Grant & Raoul. Great start to '19. Tin hats at the ready...
  • MC
    Michael C.
    4 January 2019 @ 20:13
    Great interview and interesting commentary about the industry and ‘the machines’. Grant, you need to interview Keith or Darius @Hedgeye and get their POV on this subject!
  • JM
    John M.
    4 January 2019 @ 07:08
    Guys you were both brilliant! Around the 30 minute mark on the screen, you were talking about the "Gold standard" May I suggest the following.. 1) Bring on Liaquat Ahamed who wrote and researched "Lords of Finance" and published that book in 2009. It was the last time of sovereign debt collapse.. 2) Bring on Luke Gromen with Dan Oliver & Simon Mikhailovich, to discuss the coming debt collapse. The gold standard isn't easy to follow. Yet its the former 'effing crooks ( & the new soon to be crooks) like Ocasio-Cortez who says "Vote for me for free stuff" + The other crooks who have the "Pork Barrel spending of Bridges to no-where" and all the other "freebie" stuff that all the folks in Westminster, Capitol Hill and, the Elysee Palace plus all points west and east etc., like. Like the 3.4% budget deficit in France while castigating the Italian government with their 2.4% budget deficit. & All of this is important! Everyone everywhere is gaming these systems. Yet having said all of the above the 800lb gorilla in the room is Deutsche Bank their derivatives book & thus, when does the whole edifice go wallop?
  • EB
    Emmanuel B.
    2 January 2019 @ 23:55
    Great start to 2019 with this quality debate. As for RV future success you should consider adding European and Asian talented money managers to broaden world views..
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    2 January 2019 @ 18:14
    Thanks guys. Very much enjoyed my first RV video of the year. Will be the first of many!
  • HS
    Hendrik S.
    2 January 2019 @ 13:52
    Two business partners and obviously friends, chatting about random econ stuff, having fun....No wonder they are smiling. But its still interesting as f#%k, very much worth my precious time. Thank you very much Raoul and Grant!!
  • CM
    Christian M.
    2 January 2019 @ 06:07
    I’m Australian... every time Aussie housing comes up on RV I can’t help smiling
  • JW
    Jason W.
    2 January 2019 @ 02:16
    Fantastic way to start the year listening to you both! 👍🏻
  • TM
    Timothy M.
    1 January 2019 @ 21:51
    Smart guys that add serious value. Raoul's call for us bond yields to move lower is so against the wall street consensus. Realvision has made me a lot of money. I'm looking forward to another great year.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    1 January 2019 @ 20:59
    Great convo, 2019 is going to be a barn burner indeed!
  • BE
    Bruce E.
    1 January 2019 @ 20:31
    Outstanding intellect, I thoroughly enjoyed this.
  • PU
    Paul U.
    1 January 2019 @ 16:51
    Early but right
    • PU
      Paul U.
      1 January 2019 @ 16:58
      Supposed to be a bookmark comment...
  • jW
    james W.
    1 January 2019 @ 12:41
    Fantastic stuff - thanks guys .
  • sm
    sam m.
    1 January 2019 @ 07:08
    Big fan of Raoul and Grant but I don't think the call on Bitcoin is bankable - my recollection was Raoul was out around usd3.3k which is still below current levels. I bought a small position at $300 on the back of Raoul's initial thesis so have nothing to complain about but we shouldn't give credit unless it is earned.
  • JK
    John K.
    31 December 2018 @ 21:08
    Grant/Raoul, This conversation between the two of you is a prime example of why I am willing to pay for RV content. More humans need to see this kind of excellent dialogue where two folks can maintain different perspectives of a given topic and still uphold human dignity and respect for each other. To see y'all congratulate each other on accurate market calls without it coming across as bullshitting each other is also commendable... and so very rare. Instead of once a year, where each of you meet up and discuss the upcoming twelve months, maybe y'all can consider doing it once a quarter? This kind of quarterly conversation would empower RV subscribers to have a forward-looking "rolling" view of what y'all are seeing and how y'all are adapting to market changes. Even if budget and travel constraints don't permit the once-a-quarter conversation between the two of you, please keep doing what you are doing, as it is working! My wife and I have had so many great and insightful conversations where we discuss RV content, interviewee's perspectives, what we agree with and disagree with and why, and how it affects our own perspectives of where markets may be heading. We look forward to when our five children (soon to be six children) are old enough to participate in these kinds of conversations with us, as we consider RV content to contain insights that can be passed down to the next generation. Thank you! Regards, John K.
  • EG
    Eduardo G.
    31 December 2018 @ 14:50
    There couldn't be a better end of year video. Superb! The only thing missing was a couple of pints. Happy New Year to you all and bring it on 2019!!
  • SW
    Scott W.
    31 December 2018 @ 14:22
    "Powell caught a hospital pass..." Spent some time on the rugby pitch Grant?
  • RX
    Robert X.
    31 December 2018 @ 12:55
    So glad you guys acknowledged the Luke Gromen / Brent Johnson ongoing debate about the dollar. The investing community has been the lucky recipient of their ongoing dialogue. Luke is one of my favorite thinkers and Brent is politically maddening (for me at least) but enlightening. This conversation was fantastic and is a great way to wrap up an awesome year for Real Vision.
  • P
    Phil .
    31 December 2018 @ 12:35
    Brilliant video Raoul & Grant, one of the best, more like these please. Total Novice Marco investor this side- so do excuse the simple questions. Any help is greatly appreciated. RE long AUS Bonds. Will the following ETF Capture this- The iShares Core Composite Bond ETF. https://www.blackrock.com/au/individual/products/251977/ishares-core-composite-bond-etf?locale=en_AU&switchLocale=y&siteEntryPassthrough=true My plan is to be Long this ETF whilst Shorting AUD to the equivalent sum (I’m UK based) P.S. I have never invested in Bonds- when looking at the data- Price action looks very stable. (E.G- Lower Price Volatility/Risk than many other assets classes). I would normally use 2-3X Leverage for other asset classes. (VIA CFD or Spread-Bets). Question- Do Bonds require greater levels of leverage? Told you I was a novice :-) Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      31 December 2018 @ 19:20
      Yes. You would normally adjust your investment size vs their volatility,
    • P
      Phil .
      1 January 2019 @ 01:56
      Thank You.
  • ST
    Steven T.
    31 December 2018 @ 10:09
    From the video I gathered that usd up. Us stocks down. I can understand Brent santiago's call of usd up stocks up.. But I can't wrap my head around a usd up stocks down.... If usd is up and stocks down... What goes up?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      31 December 2018 @ 19:21
      Bonds.
  • CD
    Christine D.
    31 December 2018 @ 06:52
    Re the Aussie housing market: I agree house prices are off the charts and have started coming down already and probably this trend will continue as Chinese demand decreases and supply grows every year significantly. Now, this may sound as a stupid question at first sight but read it through it may make more sense then: Why is that such a huge problem if house prices fall in Australia? I live here and almost everyone I know have a mortgage and have investment properties. However, all those properties are rented out to people who finance them mostly from their salaries. If housing asset prices will fall the salaries will still be there to maintain the cash flow and not default on the debts. The banks will NOT ask you to put more equity in to offset the paper losses as long as you maintain cash flow on the debt. Again these are maintained through salaries. Also there is net immigration into Australia which maintains a continuous demand and the government can ease immigration law (which have been the strictest EVER) to attract more people to the country if needed. I agree, probably the RBA will decrease rates eventually (after an increase period) and that will play into bonds. BUT based on my points (and probably could list a few more, e.g. net wealth being one of the highest in the world, I think 3rd after Switzerland and Luxembourg and people can easily afford to touch into their savings..) can someone explain to me where is the armageddon coming from?
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      31 December 2018 @ 13:01
      I can see your point, and concur. Australians cannot walk away from a house & mortgage (unlike the US). They keep the mortgage debt even if the bank takes the house, so they won’t walk away and the banks won’t eject them. I am reminded by Daniel Want’s comment (paraphrased) most times (80-90%) the issue approaches the cliff but small changes to policy and behavior means we don’t go over the cliff and crash. I wonder what happens to high-rise condo prices with the fiasco in Sydney these past few weeks?
    • KD
      Karl D.
      8 January 2019 @ 10:24
      You're assuming that all these people funding these mortgages via rent are going to have jobs when the banks stop pumping debt into the economy. Look at the proportion of people in sectors who are employed either directly or indirectly by the housing market - finance, real estate, construction, transport etc. These are huge employers within the Australian economy and now that the gravy train has ended there's not going to be jobs for these people. This won't be like the mining and resources downturn which employs only a small proportion of the Australia population. This is a major downturn within the sectors that employ the most people in the economy. We've been living on borrowed time for too long by pumping up the housing market and pumping up our population. The politicians and the RBA have been pretending like everything is great while we're printing flat real GDP per capita growth - we're all getting poorer, and somehow we're supposed to believe the property market should be going up? It's insanity. The wealth isn't real, and our 'lucky country' is soon to feel very unlucky.
    • yd
      yon d.
      9 January 2019 @ 02:35
      Banks can, and will, increase your interest rate if they believe the situation warrants it. That's out of your control. And, you won't be able to increase your rent collections proportionally. At which point, you lose on your investment. How deep are your pockets? Simple.
  • DH
    Dean H.
    31 December 2018 @ 02:11
    As an Aussie and investor, the home prices here are falling despite credit continuing to expand at a rate of approx. ~5% p.a. This is because the rate of credit growth has slowed, causing the home price slump in certain major capital cities. However credit growth is still outpacing wage growth and inflation. The point is the household debt bomb is still growing. It's all about availability of credit. If credit ceases to continually grow, or even declines, then the effect on home prices and the Aussie economy will be far far more severe. Right now, the Council of Financial Regulators (APRA, ASIC, RBA and Treasury) realise the impact of tight lending standards, which is constraining the Australian economy, but slowing the growth of household indebtedness. They think it has already gone too far and they are reversing course by relaxing some of the lending standards (e.g. remove 30% Interest Only lending cap), encourage more borrowing, more debt, which will only facilitate a bigger crash down the road. They're effectively saying that despite all the findings of the Royal Commission with regard to bank sector fraud, pursuit of profit to all else, that we need to go back to loose lending standards to give the economy another shot of life. My take is the Council and Government will sleepwalk right into this mess without ever addressing it head on. They'll blame "external factors" such as global deleveraging/deflation.
    • KD
      Karl D.
      8 January 2019 @ 10:34
      Yes the very last of the fools are going out for a swim because mum and dad told them property never goes down! The credit growth won't last.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    31 December 2018 @ 01:28
    OK, a call that was early and wrong for a long time is also counted as 'knocked out of the park'. Sloppy nonsense fit only for newbies. We need timeframes and risk levels with all calls ie: falsifiable propositions. Scientific method. Have we learned nothing?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      31 December 2018 @ 02:06
      Rambling on about Australian housing short and general disaster in the markets in 2019 without any mention of timeframes or risk levels or targets or track record of indicators he mentions is more of this low information, persistent catastrophising we see so much of from Mr Williams.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    31 December 2018 @ 00:50
    The US completely recapitalised its banks after 2008 and the USD stabilised. Now however you think the recap of EZ banks by the ECB will absolutely crash the euro?
  • MS
    Mitchell S.
    30 December 2018 @ 19:53
    What a fascinating conversation recapping a ton of relevant macro events. Question on the Australian housing short.. What are instruments that can be used in a traditional brokerage account (Fidelity, Schwab) to potentially get in on this idea?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 December 2018 @ 23:59
      Short AUD, the banks (CBA etc), pure play listed lenders mortgage insurers like Genworth. What isn't easy is handicapping this trade. You are up against the resource rich, low population, high functioning lucky country at a time of exponentially driven massive population and wealth growth in its own corner of the world (SE Asia). No worries mate, too easy!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:01
      As an Aussie with RE interests in Sydney I am quaking in my boots about this stale thesis, what a widow maker. Have mercy on yourself.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    30 December 2018 @ 18:17
    Together with everything mentioned there is a Black Swan event awaiting us...... Regards, Mike
  • ls
    lucas s.
    30 December 2018 @ 17:07
    Grant, Raoul, you mention that you would have done tarp and QE. Yet, this goes against most of what you profess to believe in. The US could have nationalized the banking sector, split deposit taking from investment banking. Let the investment banks fail, and yes, big deep recessions to let prices clear. The world would not have ended, but perhaps the financialization of earth could have stopped, and by now we would be growing again, in real terms not in debased fiat terms.
    • RB
      Richard B.
      30 December 2018 @ 21:58
      Precisely correct. One cannot 'run' an economy with interest rates at 0%. It is removed from a common understanding of marketplace; valuations are distorted; not certain in the historical sense how much of an economy remains. Thus, quite difficult to predict (herein not a very valuable undertaking) what follows. Many historical processes struggle as traditional valuations rest on crumbling foundations. Certainly, a 'recovery' will occur but its nature appears extraordinarily removed from prediction.
    • CT
      Craig T.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:08
      Since the voters couldn't tell the difference among various "saves", why would pols not minimize their own political pain? Not to mention, they also had money in the markets! Longer term? Pols have rarely cared about anything after the next election.
    • TM
      Timothy M.
      1 January 2019 @ 22:05
      Lucas, QE was a correct remedy for US banks. Prices did clear an there was a reset between 2010 to 2014. The reset depends where you live. QE 2 and 3 we're not needed and the Fed and Wall Street has enabled capital burning companies like Blue Apron and Snap to raise billions. Jay Powell will end the Fed put.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    30 December 2018 @ 13:45
    For those who want to play Long USD v AUD via an ETF, CROC (up 20% YTD) might be a good option or DAUD (up 30% YTD). They are levered though.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    30 December 2018 @ 13:40
    Post comes with warning. it may piss someone off Brilliance in many people. But the sad and devastating thing is.. They could change the world. Could maybe make inequality a subject of lesser meaning…………. Yet listening to many interviews. It is still about figuring out. How to be super wealthy, in “Flaws and economic breakdown” and profit. (401ks will mean nothing in a world of zero growth) While the governments and central banks spiral 99% of humanity into soylent Green. Trump is to extreme.Young people want socialism. That will bring ALL down, Not even a Island to hide on. It’s no wonder the United states theft and murder, school shootings is at historical highs. Sounds extreme, but most can’t be wrong for 100% move’s up. Then short there 401ks or IRAs… lots of mixed messages Hats off to Pippa Malmgren
  • JC
    Justin C.
    30 December 2018 @ 08:27
    Great stuff. More of it please.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    30 December 2018 @ 06:21
    Brilliant! Guys please please do these conversations more often. How about quarterly through 19? Tracking all the talking points as things are actually playing out. Cheers, Happy New Year. Many Thanks for a great product in RV!!
  • DL
    Darryn L.
    30 December 2018 @ 04:51
    Also finished Howard Marks book on cycles yesterday which made this conversation even more interesting.
  • DL
    Darryn L.
    30 December 2018 @ 04:49
    Don't forget the Aussie election - biggest policy changes promised (by almost certain new government in May) since Whitlam.
  • BJ
    Brendan J.
    30 December 2018 @ 04:05
    Can someone explain exactly what the trade is with Australian currency and bonds? @ around the 4:30 remaining mark... Sorry for the novice question...
    • DL
      Darryn L.
      30 December 2018 @ 04:50
      They mean sell AUD and buy Aussie bonds.
    • an
      adrian n.
      30 December 2018 @ 13:00
      Buy Government bonds not Corporate bonds.
  • SP
    Sat P.
    30 December 2018 @ 01:07
    Great insights. I live in Australia and am looking forward to telling people "I told you so" regarding the property price declines that are happening right now. 2019 will be brutal. It has been a huge advantage being British and living in Australia. Once you have seen parents and friends being laid off in recessions (1990s for my Dad) and then realising at a young age that western economies are built on hot air, it is much easier to make smarter financial decisions. I steered clear of properties since moving here years ago because I learnt very quickly that the Australian economy doesn't really produce goods and services that can be sold to pay for all of this debt.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:35
      You are effectively saying you have missed out on +70% gains since 2012, and more of the same if you have been here from an earlier date. But OK you made smart financial decisions. For heavens sake.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    30 December 2018 @ 00:55
    Summary of Bitfinex (the exchange) and Tether (the pegged, centrally distributed token) are as follows. 1) The crypto currency space had a problem exchanging fiat from and to crypto. 2) Their solution lets make our own digital USD, which we distribute centrally 3) A bunch of top exchanges use USD Tether (USDT) instead of USD, so when you sell you get USDT not USD. Even worse there are exchanges that say they are using USD but actually using USDT. 4) The organization that runs Bitifinex and Tether have been audited but have no shown they have the same amount of USD for USDT. Even when they had no linked bank, they were still issuing 100s of millions of USDT frequently. Obviously, if everyone were to sell their crypto simultaneously and request a withdrawal of USD then almost no one would get their money out. Crypto apocalypse scenario. And largest fraud maybe in history.
  • RE
    Renato E.
    29 December 2018 @ 23:49
    I'm following the TSLA & TSLAQ "gang fight" on Twitter since April or May and it is indeed fascinating and hilarious to watch. To this date I'm amazed how many smart people fell and still fall for this guy. Looking forward to the movie about Tesla's demise, because I would almost feel like an insider.
    • SP
      Sat P.
      30 December 2018 @ 01:17
      This interview has finally convinced me 100% as to why Tesla is a very bad investment. I do agree that it didn't start out that way. I for one fully supported the mission that Musk has for a zero pollution vehicle. The "Pedo Guy" comment from Musk showed me just how much pressure he has put himself under. He has nobody to blame but himself. Nobody forced him to compete with Toyota/GM/Ford and NASA and London Underground at the same time! Great discussion especially the Twitter threads among RV and the guests that regularly discuss it there.
    • MC
      Minum C.
      30 December 2018 @ 14:35
      One of the challenges in talking to TSLA bulls is in trying to explain that being bearish on TSLA doesn't necessarily have all that much to do with being bearish on Tesla automobiles.
    • sm
      sylvain m.
      30 December 2018 @ 21:16
      I will offer one thought on Tsla: if you are (a millennial) tired of nobody doing much about global warming, and believe that electric cars at a small step in the right direction, owning few shares of Tesla is not a bad call. The proof is every car makers got scared of them and invested in electric (the proof is in the amount of electric cars coming in 2019-2020). The longer Tesla goes, the faster the shift will happen. Is it a good investment? Probably not. Is it voting with your wallet for some change? Probably
    • GS
      Gordon S.
      30 December 2018 @ 23:55
      @sylvain m.: I thought so in the beginning too, but the fraud has just gone too far for me (used to be a Musk fan, now a $TSLAQ member). A good compromise could be to buy the bond, e.g. 2025 bond trading at 85c/ yield of 8.14%. But that is really if you *must* invest in Tesla... Hopefully, all the other car manufacturers are now being serious. If 100% electric is really the way to go (I think so, but have yet to be fully convinced on the total cost of ownership economics), then you could also through in VW & co? https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/12/50-new-100-electric-car-models-2025-volkswagen-group/ (My speculation is that the German government struck a deal with VW with respect to going big on electric in exchange for less severe sanctions about DieselGate?)
  • JN
    Jill N.
    29 December 2018 @ 22:21
    Brilliant, insightful, a real treat to hear the two of you together, 1+1 =100 ! Agree re Australia How about talking to Cathie Woods of ARK about Tesla or Elon himself ?
  • TM
    Timothy M.
    29 December 2018 @ 21:24
    I enjoyed hearing the views of Grant and Raoul as we enter a new year. These long form interviews provide so much more value than listening to sound bites from sell side analysts all day on Bloomberg or CNBC.
  • AW
    Austin W.
    29 December 2018 @ 20:41
    That. Was. Amazing. Thank You.
  • WM
    Will M.
    29 December 2018 @ 20:20
    The problem almost everyone forgets about the gold price is the capital gin component and the taxes that will be lived on that gain. In the next crisis which will drive gold higher (I am certain) the risk of windfall taxes being placed on gold profits are huge. Its such an easy way for governments to try to keep a lid on the price. I firmly believe we are heading for paper currency destruction and debt deflation and I see gold and gold stocks as potential back stop. However if gold climbs in a similar relationship to the 70s, $1200 gold is going to go to $12000 or more. That world will almost certainly see governments react to try to curb the price. I expect a first step will be a 50% minimum tax of gold capital gains. If a high rate of inflation returns due to a loss of confidence in paper money the total tax take against real gold prices could easily exceed 80 - 90%. I guess using gold to preserve wealth rather than "make money" is actually the real benefit.
    • GS
      Gordon S.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:28
      Though almost nobody owns gold in the west. They are a lot lower hanging fruits than taxing gold gains... (inflating the debt away or raiding pension funds being two examples.)
    • TF
      Terry F.
      14 January 2019 @ 05:34
      " I guess using gold to preserve wealth rather than "make money" is actually the real benefit." Which is why Grant doesn't care about the gold price. He carries gold as an insurance policy, not a speculation. This is why you shouldn't go "all in" on gold like some gold bugs. You need to determine what damage a financial disaster could do to your net worth and how the price of gold would be affected (as in increasing price). Then calculate how much gold you would need to offset the losses to your wealth and you have arrived at how much gold you need to own as an insurance policy. Another way to benefit from an extreme price rise in gold with out capital gains taxes is to use it as collateral for loans.
  • AZ
    Angelo Z.
    29 December 2018 @ 18:13
    Great conversation, though one thing sticks in my side. Raoul states that short term trading doesn't work anymore, that is just plain wrong. Use the macro to determine the trend and trade the trend. With volatility being what it is now the swings provide great profits. With the overall bearish market I have been trading short (mostly) in ranges, selling into the pops and grabbing those declines, over and over. Semiconducters and cannabis have been great shorts. In 45 days of my short bias my entire portfolio is up 25.5%, this with trade durations from hours to a few days. If you can determine the correct trend, short term trading works well.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    29 December 2018 @ 18:04
    A tactical actionable piece on Australia would be very interesting. I hate bank equities in general and if there is a good shorting opportunity lining up I will be in it. Would approach it through puts on some ETF though. Seems like there is an Australian banking ETF (MVB:AU), it yields 3% currently.(https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MVB:AU). When one looks at AUDUSD one has to admit Mr. Market is pretty smart (the pair is already sensing something coming).
    • an
      adrian n.
      30 December 2018 @ 13:04
      BBOZ is pretty good. ETF that is short ASX200 which is mostly financials
    • SS
      Steve S.
      30 December 2018 @ 13:36
      @Adrian. The problem with the BBOZ ETF is it is priced in AUD. If AUD falls against your chosen currency i.e. USD then when you sell, your profits might be wiped out.
    • GS
      Gordon S.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:13
      WBK (Westpac Banking Corporation), trading on the NYSE was advertised as a short here on RV on previous interviews. Priced in USD you potentially get both the downside of the stock and the currency. Though the carry could get pricey, the borrow-rate is currently 5.21% on Interactive Brokers and if the dividend is not cut, you have to add about 8% in dividends to that. (disclosure: I'm short.)
  • JA
    James A.
    29 December 2018 @ 15:31
    Best of Britain
  • LW
    Lukasz W.
    29 December 2018 @ 13:45
    The level of honesty in this conversation is amazing. It was pleasure to spend this hour with you.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    29 December 2018 @ 13:44
    Brilliant! Thought provoking, coming from a place of absolute integrity. Grant is so right about Australia. Happy New Year 🎉🍾🤦‍♂️😁
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    29 December 2018 @ 13:02
    Great piece lots to think about. It would be amazing, if Hugh would agree, to have a revisit after his 12 months out of running money. To see if his perspective etc has changed looking after his only his own money. :own bias: One year into my financial learning journey and I haven't even decided what courses I should take. Speaking of "Algos" "computers" perhaps you need to have a bit of both? You need to be a fundamental and macro thinker but with an understanding of how the algos work. In the past your thesis was right or wrong plus you needed to be right then for everyone else to catch up. Now even in day trading you need to understand the levels that the machines are working with/to to make a probability question on if "I can be more right than wrong".
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    29 December 2018 @ 12:48
    Great conversation
  • SC
    Sajad C.
    29 December 2018 @ 12:46
    Brilliant.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    29 December 2018 @ 12:36
    Really good convo.... should definitely do this once per year, end of year, but maybe at the 6 month mark too? See how the predictions are turning out, that sort of thing.... :)
  • MS
    Matt S.
    29 December 2018 @ 11:57
    Pray to God, the UN goes.. and the CFR, and the EU, and the BIS, IMF, WB... all these transnational entities are the root cause of all the world's problems.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      29 December 2018 @ 20:19
      Retarded comment.
  • jS
    jurgen S.
    29 December 2018 @ 10:50
    As always enjoyed the discussion but didn't totally agree with Grant that the royal commission has slowed loan approvals and here is why. The banks have shut up shop and don't want to lend, thats the main reason loan approvals are down. They have made it far tougher than it needs to be and I think they have an ulterior motive. They are pissed about having to participate in a royal commission and air their dirty laundry and the only way to fight back is to slow the economy by not lending. They know that the pain is coming but they also know that if they hold the govt to ransom they'll get some say in how this plays out. By the time the commission hands down it's findings the economy will have really slowed due to lending conditions being so tight and the govt will have no option but to go begging to the big four to get the economy moving again. It's going to be really interesting how this all plays out. Dividends being cut is odds on in my book. Bring on 2019!
    • DL
      Darryn L.
      30 December 2018 @ 04:56
      No that's not right. The interpretation of the irresponsible lending laws is doing it. If you work in the credit department of a bank it is in your personal interest to say no unless you are 100% sure you can't get in any trouble - anything borderline is a no. The top bank guys still want to make money and get their bonuses.
  • JS
    John S.
    29 December 2018 @ 10:35
    very enjoyable and relevant discussion. Well done GW and RP.
  • WD
    William D.
    29 December 2018 @ 10:26
    There still seems to be plenty of opportunity for fundamental traders to think 3-6 months ahead... the algos don’t synthesise the materially different influences on each company. Also - an interview with James Anderson of Baillie Gifford would be an absolute treat for viewers. He seems truly exceptional and has no qualms about filling his book with outrageously valued names. He’s also articulate on the Tesla long!! (disclaimer: no related interest)
    • EF
      Eric F.
      29 December 2018 @ 20:22
      I’ve heard the Tesla long argument and it’s narrow & shallow. The short argument seems far more thought out with lots of supporting evidence bar the share price (for now).
    • WD
      William D.
      30 December 2018 @ 16:01
      Yes, it’s shallow, but so is the stock market and business in general. Being too smart with stocks is dangerous
    • WD
      William D.
      30 December 2018 @ 16:01
      Yes, it’s shallow, but so is the stock market and business in general. Being too smart with stocks is dangerous
  • FV
    Fredrik V.
    29 December 2018 @ 09:50
    I got a deep insight from listening to these brilliant minds; algos dominate the short term pricing of assets AND investors need to have a “Gromen”-horizon to base the theses on, to have edge. As long as algos don’t create the future, distorting the gravity humans will have a edge.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    29 December 2018 @ 09:44
    There must be a bug in your system; the interface shows 17 'thumbs down'? Nobody would vote this down. Great discussion, thanks muchly. Please, more of it. Happy and prosperous 2019. I can't wait for the unfolding stories, especially (hopefully) being able to buy an Australian house at fire sale prices during 2019-20.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      30 December 2018 @ 18:34
      Those who vote this discussion down are most likely long "Elon Musk"
  • RP
    Ron P.
    29 December 2018 @ 09:27
    It was a privelege to listen to this discussion. There's so much to take in that once I clear out my Imbox, I'm going to listen to it again as there is so much to take in. Thanks and keep up the great work in 2019.
  • R
    Ron .
    29 December 2018 @ 07:33
    Brilliant. Loved this conversation as it focuses one's mind and attention on the possibilities and probabilities of market moving events in 2019. A "must watch" for everyone with investments in the market, in real estate, in bonds, in Australia, etc. Great job, guys!
  • MP
    Mark P.
    29 December 2018 @ 07:06
    God Bless. The Cause.
  • PH
    Peter H.
    29 December 2018 @ 06:55
    Did Raoul say buy Australian bonds or short Australian bonds (anyone)? Great content guys...much needed as a new investor... Cheers
    • AT
      Andrew T.
      29 December 2018 @ 09:04
      Not sure exactly what he said, but I think it's a buy. Reason being that the RBA will have to lower rates to address increased mortgage defaults and falling housing prices. As such the price of current bonds will rise as their coupon payments will be much higher than the newly issued stuff. Thats also the reason for the currency tanking. Thoughts??
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      29 December 2018 @ 14:17
      buy bonds -> expecting lower yields
    • PH
      Peter H.
      29 December 2018 @ 17:44
      Thanks Andrew and JACK....appreciate your responses...cheers
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      30 December 2018 @ 05:59
      Be careful of AUD moves. Australia is setup to take any market pain in the currency. It actually works v well to support the economy but look back at 2000 and 2008 and see the size and speed of moves. If u want play bonds on the long side from offshore I strongly suggest currency hedging, the other side of Raoul’s trade for a weak AUD
  • JB
    Jason B.
    29 December 2018 @ 06:24
    This was really good! Too bad you 2 only do this 1-2 times per year!
  • JM
    John M.
    29 December 2018 @ 06:07
    All I want to know is who could possibly give that video a thumbs down? Seriously! Great video guys, keep up the great work in 2019 and beyond.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      29 December 2018 @ 20:25
      Same here. I expect a few retards to crop up but double digits is more than what I thought would be around.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    29 December 2018 @ 04:55
    I would like to know from Raoul how dependent he is on the rising price of the dollar to further cause a capitulation of oil down to $20/barrel. Does he still expect it to go there even if the dollar moves sideways or even weakens? Some of us live in oil country and greatly appreciate his input on this. thanks
  • PC
    Peter C.
    29 December 2018 @ 04:19
    Love this follow up on Tesla. Please continue this Tesla coverage in the future along with Grants other none-fraud short Netflix. btw these are my 2 current shorts in play:)
  • JG
    John G.
    29 December 2018 @ 03:26
    How much fun. As a Founding Investor in Real Vision I have missed your two interaction with each other because you both bring a unique perspective to the process. Thank you so much for this wonderful conversation.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    29 December 2018 @ 02:55
    Guys totally sick job- big congrats on growing real vision, I'm an OG viewer from 2014! I hope 2019 brings you much luck and growth. Keep up the fantastic work and keep evolving! ps- please bring one of my ultimate fave guests David Iben back, his savant style call on mining sector a few years back was spot on, like to know what he thinks about things at the moment. Also Fred Hickey, Fleckenstein are pure entertainment everytime. Cheers!
    • BD
      Bruce D.
      31 December 2018 @ 01:46
      Agreed! Dave Iben personifies not only deep global value, but he sees the world in a very simplistic mindset. I listen to him quarterly during his fund presentations that are on his website, and I am always amazed at his process. Get him back Milton!
  • MC
    Minum C.
    29 December 2018 @ 02:12
    This was really awesome. It would be great to see Raoul and Grant chit chat like this at least once more during the year.
  • CR
    Cristian R.
    29 December 2018 @ 01:36
    Fantastic chat. As an Australian I found it both hilarious and terrifying how the two of you straightened up at the mention of our housing bubble.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    29 December 2018 @ 00:19
    Grant and Raoul were great as usual. They should try to coordinate their schedules to do this every quarter. Neither has yet realized the degree to which their personal brands as interviewers/thinkers, are RV's biggest asset. Time to leverage that value boys.
    • GS
      Gordon S.
      30 December 2018 @ 23:27
      How about going "into the future"? Organize two camera crews, film separately an exchange over a video conference call. I've seen Raoul and Julian do this already, this should be doable with current tech, shouldn't it? Then no more excuse to do this on a quarterly basis? :P
  • RC
    Robert C.
    29 December 2018 @ 00:18
    Grant, could you provide us with some further details about Michael Synder's fund to play the Australian housing market? On the flip side, how would someone who lives in Australia/New Zealand protect themselves against this?
    • BJ
      Brendan J.
      30 December 2018 @ 04:31
      this ↑
  • GF
    George F.
    29 December 2018 @ 00:07
    Very interesting. But I’m not sure I’m happy about listening to smart people talking about the same scary things that have been bugging me recently.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    28 December 2018 @ 23:12
    Good talk gents -you should do more of this? Perhaps a net of what you both se for the major markets US equity ,gold,bonds, EU , China, Japan,and commodities etc. thanks for your service.
  • JC
    Joe C.
    28 December 2018 @ 22:53
    Could’ve listened to 6 hours of this. Hope you guys can get together more than once in 2019, especially if things start to unravel as you suspect.
  • CY
    CHIHLUN Y.
    28 December 2018 @ 22:50
    Raoul and Grant, thank you for the chat. What a nice way to end off 2018, listening to you two talk all the topics that interest me - economy, markets, dollars, the madness that is Tesla and Wework, Australian housing, honest human observations of the people you met and interviewed. Thank you and your team for what you’re building, giving a rational look at a world, politically and financially, that might be losing their rationality again. See you in 2019 guys.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    28 December 2018 @ 21:44
    Fantastic - thanks guys.
  • LB
    Louis B.
    28 December 2018 @ 21:05
    Great video/chat. I live in New Zealand part of the year; if you think Australians are in denial about their housing bubble, you should see the Kiwis in Auckland! They have no idea what's coming... As for the central bankers in the Antipodes, the RBA and RBNZ: they used to have some of the best governors in the world. Now, they are a very pale shadow of their predecessors. The 'Official Cash Rate' in both countries is now lower than the equivalent Fed funds rate in the US for the 1st time in the more than 30 years I've been there AND the Australian OCR is lower than the NZ OCR, also for the first time (I think) ever! Strange times indeed. I agree that in 2019 'something' is going to give and things will hopefully finally start to unravel as they inevitably should.
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      29 December 2018 @ 08:42
      I live in Auckland year round, Louis, and I heartily agree. The Kiwi "she'll be right" mentality extends into any discussions with locals about the economy, especially as far as real estate is concerned. The scary thing is that not only do Kiwis also have most of their assets in real estate, but our economy is much smaller and arguably even more vulnerable to a downturn. Not to mention that with the exception of KiwiBank and a few regional banks, our banking system is owned lock stock and barrel by the big three Australian banks.
    • DC
      Dave C.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:21
      Another JAFA here - totally agree with this - recommend the Martin North channel mentioned earlier - he is now covering both New Zealand and Auckland in particular - ugly stuff being revealed.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    28 December 2018 @ 21:01
    The YouTube video 'Grey Wolf by Grant Williams' is one of the best presentation I've ever watched, highly reccomended.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    28 December 2018 @ 20:58
    It would be great if the Raoul Pal Grant Williams conversation was more regular, every month or quarter
  • DS
    David S.
    28 December 2018 @ 19:40
    It is always a pleasure to listen to both of you! Much of my perspective, right or wrong, comes from two RVTV videos – Hyper-Connectivity and Tri-Polar World. In addition, businesses with a positive cash flows. Although I like the stability of Grant’s world, I believe Raoul’s world of many, many more complications will be the future. You will be required to learn new skills and keep them up to date, or you will never be able to keep pace. You will also need to keep Grant’s fundamentals in mind in all your trades. False prophets will be in all the bushes. Many of them will not even know that they are on the wrong track. This advice is nothing new just more so. I wish everyone a Happy New Year and good investing from the middle of the Pacific. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      3 January 2019 @ 10:27
      By this advice, I meant my advice not Grant and Raoul's advice. Maybe that is where the thumbs down came from. DLS
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    28 December 2018 @ 19:28
    One of the best videos all year. This is what made RV great, it’s the open conversation, the back and forth, and quite frankly Raoul and Grants personalities while doing it all.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    28 December 2018 @ 19:14
    I remember grant's interview in the spring on the Australian banks and I made a mental note to keep up with it at the time. I'm glad he updated this. I've got to take another look
  • JV
    James V.
    28 December 2018 @ 19:04
    Bravo gentlemen! Thank you for a fascinating and stimulating conversation. Best wishes for your continued success with Real Vision in the year ahead.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    28 December 2018 @ 18:29
    Great video and year end/start cap. Just a thought in regards to Tesla and Porsche being the Tesla killer.... From the article... "The range-topping Taycan Turbo will start "over $130,000 before options."" Yeah.. you read that correctly... the topline Taycan "Tesla Killer" (i.e. best range and performance) will be OVER $130,000.00 USD ..... Before options. There is plenty of reason to doubt Tesla may not make it.. But I don't see this is being the silver bullet that puts them away. https://www.autoblog.com/2018/12/27/porsche-taycan-pricing-report/?ncid=edlinkusauto00000021&yptr=yahoo
  • SS
    Steven S.
    28 December 2018 @ 18:16
    Remember Tesla doesn't now just make cars: "Emilie Blum @ebeesworld Follow Follow @ebeesworld More If I could rip the @Tesla solar panels off my roof and return them for a refund of our $24,000 investment, I absolutely would. I’ve never experienced such incompetence and negligence in my entire life than from Tesla employees. Worst solar experience ever. 9:09 AM - 28 Dec 2018" just tweeted: https://twitter.com/ebeesworld/status/1078699548552380416
  • SW
    Scott W.
    28 December 2018 @ 17:40
    great interview, once again. ty both.
  • JS
    Jason S.
    28 December 2018 @ 16:40
    Awesome interview - would love to see more insights into the Tesla fraud/ short idea. Fresh news pops up every day. Would love to hear more about story and potential turning point that would suggest lights off!
    • RE
      Renato E.
      30 December 2018 @ 18:43
      Not sure if you already do it or if you are looking for different insights, but following the TSLAQ discussions on twitter is very informative. The account "@TeslaCharts" is an excellent starting point imho (for non twitter users, just google for the mentioned account name and enjoy the show).
    • GS
      Gordon S.
      31 December 2018 @ 00:23
      I do not recommend. I've fallen into the trap and gone down the rabbit hole. You could spend your whole day reading $TSLAQ and various news on Tesla and still not be able to grasp the full extent of the fraud. It keeps on surprising every day! (Though it is often very entertaining!) Here is a small video that I made and has gone viral on $TSLAQ two weeks ago: Tesla Wolf of Wall Street https://vimeo.com/282649415 The tent is what tipped me over!
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    28 December 2018 @ 14:48
    The proof that markets have not changed and will not change is the fact that we have Peter Brandt trading for 40 plus years with the same methods he has been trading ever since and doing exceptionally well!
  • IH
    Ian H.
    28 December 2018 @ 13:38
    Great stuff! Couldn’t agree anymore regarding time horizons. Your only edge is long term. Happy holidays and best to Real Vision in 2019!
  • GF
    George F.
    28 December 2018 @ 13:06
    I hate to defend The Boring Co. but I sort of see where it might be going. The Boring Co drills tunnels at 1/2 the diameter (1/4 of the area) of the standard tunnels and therefore possibly costing 1/4 the cost of a standard tunnel. Those tunnels would be unnavigable by humans in an ordinary car but could be navigated by a Tesla autopilot with proper sensors along the side. The 'training wheels' are just a proof of concept. But but but how do they make money when going through a tunnel costs $12? Answer: Charge $200. Sounds unreasonable? What would you pay to get off Manhattan Island in 15 min when traffic radio says 2 hr delays on East River crossings? The privately owned Tesla Tunnel would have surge pricing, so they would charge $1000 to avoid a 2 hr delay. If BMW wanted their cars to go through such tunnels they would either have to use Tesla compliant equipment, or they would have to build their own tunnels. What I describe isn't the vacuum tube system Musk speculated about, but did not as you say promise, but I can see something coming from it eventually. I don't claim it will work, but it is not absurd nor does it obviously defy physics or economics. You keep saying 'Elon will figure it out'. One of Musk's tricks is he operates like a silicon valley startup and collects the best, youngest engineers in the world and inspires them. They are the ones that will figure things out. Is GM or even BMW known for that? As far as competition for Tesla, I don't know. GM Volt is now dead along with autopiloted Cruze. I-Pace and whatever it is from BMW sounded good but based on reviews they both leave me flat, although I am positive the door panels fit properly. Maybe Porsche will pick up the gauntlet. I hate to say it but Germany is looking a lot like Detroit in the 1970s. A strong legacy and loyal customers but new products are really updated retro products and a huge third world migration are making living in Germany less attractive and more expensive. Just like Detroit in the 70s Germans will probably pay premium prices for new housing in safe areas, but that will destroy Germany and the German automobile industry, witness Detroit.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      28 December 2018 @ 13:54
      Is it just me or are Tesla vehicles damn ugly?? I really can't get over their exterior look, even when they a clearly leading in the electric driving space. As long as thwir cars look like old Audis, I will have to stick to Mercedes, Landrover etc.
    • CC
      Christopher C.
      28 December 2018 @ 18:35
      Tesla vehicles (S and X) are designed with range at highway speed in mind. That translates to reduction in aerodynamic drag. There is only 1 perfect aerodynamic shape and ANY deviation from this to account for style, or homage to brand "shape" will come at a cost to this. If form following function is beautiful to your eye then you love it. If your aesthetic fire burns on a different fuel, that too is well and fine. Just remember leaning into/against the laws of physics always comes at a cost.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      29 December 2018 @ 20:32
      Drivel.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      29 December 2018 @ 23:27
      I'm following the TSLA & TSLAQ "gang fight" on Twitter since April or May and it is indeed fascinating and hilarious to watch. To this date I'm amazed how many smart people fell and still fall for this guy. I'm already looking forward to the movie about Tesla's demise, because I would almost feel like an insider. To your point: "One of Musk's tricks is he operates like a silicon valley startup and collects the best, youngest engineers in the world and inspires them" That might have been true in the past, but the amount of senior employees jumping ship is staggering. I would highly recommend to follow TSLAQ on Twitter.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      30 December 2018 @ 02:47
      Pay $200 to wait in the queue for the elevator to the death trap tunnel filled with poorly manufactured cars liable to catch on fire with no escape.... DISRUPTION!
    • GF
      George F.
      30 December 2018 @ 17:46
      I find it interesting that there is a claim that there is no representative of the long side that can be presented. It may have escaped the TSLA vs TSLAQ debaters but RealVison commentator Russell Clark had something to say about being strongly neutral: Russell Clark: I don't think you need to be that selective. Almost all the auto stocks look troubled. It's one of those things, right? If you walk down a street in London, everyone's parked on the street in London and you sort of look at the cars and you go-- I know that everyone loves showing Tesla. I don't do anything with Tesla because I don't know. I don't know where the end. I don't know what the stock could be in the future. But when I walk down a street in London, it's very easy for me to imagine in 10 years that the Teslas are still there but the Ford Focus isn't. Or the Opel or the-- it's very easy for me to look at the car companies that everyone's cheap and value investors are buying and go, they won't exist, but the Tesla could. the Tesla, for me, when I think about Tesla, I worry it could be like the BlackBerry of EVs. Like it shows us the way away from the Nokia, but it's not Apple, it's the BlackBerry. So it sort of does well, but then it doesn't. In summary: My interpretation is TSLA vs TSLAQ debaters go where Mr Clark fears to tread. Maybe Mr Clark could further elaborate his aggressively neutral position on Tesla. He might be able to explain why he is not swayed by either side.
    • TF
      Terry F.
      14 January 2019 @ 06:28
      Another headwind for Tesla is that sedan sales overall are falling and will fall further. https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-has-fallen-out-of-love-with-the-sedan-1535169698
  • JB
    Jack B.
    28 December 2018 @ 12:49
    Awesome!
  • JV
    Jonas V.
    28 December 2018 @ 12:34
    Can someone explain the Austrialia story?
    • JS
      Jason S.
      28 December 2018 @ 16:43
      They just did - housing bubble and crash looming. Prices down by ~8% this year! Sydney and Melbourne are getting hammered and action clearances are 30-40% these days. What a joke. Wait until Shorten gets into govt and axes negative gearing, franking credits & cuts capital gain discount. Property will meltdown, especially with crackdown on borrowing / Chinese investors.
    • PG
      Philip G.
      28 December 2018 @ 19:01
      So the easiest way to play this would be to buy Australian bonds, short the banks, or short the AUD? Are there any ETF's setup to do this with ease?
    • DR
      David R.
      28 December 2018 @ 21:20
      @Jason S. They won't "crackdown" anymore on Chinese buyers in Oz or Canaduh because both those countries are hurting badly and won't throw gas on the fire by discouraging Asian money. Maybe too late as the damage is done because Asians of all stripes are starting to pull out their money and if it snowballs it'll crash housing in Oz and Canaduh. In addition, Oz is in for a huge world of hurt as they foolishly banned Huawei 5G (the ONLY operational 5G in the world today) and China is now considering retaliation by banning all Australian copper & iron ore and possibly more. It's said that 80% of Australia's economy depends directly or indirectly on exports to China. Oz will become the next Venezuala if China wills it. Talk about the proverbial "shooting yourself in the foot" on the part of the Ozzies! Short Australia!
    • DR
      David R.
      28 December 2018 @ 21:23
      Maybe do a speculative spread Chile against Australia? In case the Chinese indeed shift all their iron & copper imports from Australia to Chile.
    • JS
      Jason S.
      29 December 2018 @ 06:03
      @David R - Australia (my country and presumably yours?) is going down the drain, thanks to the politicians. They have zero real world experience and are simply out of touch with their draconian ways, especially in creating a surveillance and heavily read-taped economy. Anyway, regarding Chinese investment into property, Chinese regulators are clamping down on capital controls which is making it more difficult to get money out of China & invest in Aussie real estate. Transactions are down ~40% this year. Stamp-duty surcharges + falling housing prices + tighter lending conditions also make it less attractive for foreign ownership these days. Chinese domestic economic conditions also worsening + commodity prices weakening at the moment, signalling the game is over for Aussie property. All that's left is the crash and burn, IMO. If, as you say, China bans imports of Aussie iron ore + copper that's going to lead to a massive recession in Australia and that's most likely going to see the housing market, which is significantly over leveraged, capitulate into 2020/21. BTW, where did you read that China is thinking about 'retaliation by banning all Australian copper & iron ore and possibly more'? cheers
    • JS
      Jason S.
      29 December 2018 @ 06:10
      @Phillip G. Your thesis makes sense to me. Shorting the currency + banks seems like a smart idea. There are no inverse ETFs that I know on the top of my head. At the very least, you should avoid owning the banks + currency. You could possibly buy 2020 puts on the banks as a trade.
    • BL
      Bart L.
      30 December 2018 @ 05:03
      @Jason S., BetaShares has a ETF in Australia “BEAR” if looking to short Aussie market, when/if Labor wins next election in May and passes the proposed cgt and franking credit legislation look out below, especially the Aussie banks that may investors but because of the yield and franking credits attached.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      31 December 2018 @ 01:56
      China cancelling any copper or iron ore imports etc would sharply increase the price for them. Such action would not be to scale relative to Huawei. It would not be just considering the extensive hacking by China of Australian companies and politics. Suggesting this is a real possibility is as useful as suggesting an asteroid or nuclear war or other catastrophe is a real possibility. You are grasping at bear argument straws. It is confirmation bias and a 'catastrophising' cognitive distortion.
  • JV
    Jonas V.
    28 December 2018 @ 11:56
    Why was Raoul his call on bitcoin RIGHT? He sold at 2K and bitcoin never ever went lower than this, till this day?! His call on bitcoin was WRONG. it collapsed BUT the magnitude of going up was way more powerful than everybody thought and you missed out a lifetime opportunity if you followed his call.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 December 2018 @ 12:05
      I made `10x what was wrong in that?
    • JC
      Justin C.
      28 December 2018 @ 20:16
      He called the collapse from $6,300 to these current levels. Check his Twitter feed for these calls and give him due credit! Also, selling early and booking gains is what smart investors do. Sell when you have a healthy gain and there is plentiful liquidity. This is what RV is trying to teach the average retail investor.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 December 2018 @ 21:10
      A number of good technicians sold part or all of their BTC in that 2k-3k range. For example, private FX trader Jamie Saetelle, former lead trader of FXCM DailyFX sold at $2300, but he'd accumulated at an avg cost of 200. As for "missing out a lifetime opportunity", I'm gifted at that haha, missing many even better opportunities than BTC - as there's a number of rags-to-riches stock stories, but for every shooting star there's hundreds of losers. But my nomination goes to those savvy buyers of hutong lots in Beijing in the early 1980's which sold for $300 each and today are each worth about $300-million each. As nobody dreamed back then that China's economy would rapidly rise from the size of Jamaica's to the largest real economy in the world today (per the 2018 US CIA Factbook and Wikipedia).
    • PN
      Paul N.
      28 December 2018 @ 23:00
      It wasn't the call for me it was the reasoning. I've always thought that forks did not take away from the Bitcoin bull case and they would all end up being worth zero. As of right now most of them have lost >80% against Bitcoin, which is down >80% itself!
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      29 December 2018 @ 17:59
      It's okay Jonas, BTC is going alot lower. Revisit your comment in a year.
    • TH
      Tomi H.
      29 December 2018 @ 19:31
      Jonas, your comment doesn't make any sense from trading perspective. Trading is all about definable edge and expected value. Profitable trader buys/sells short when he sees positive expected value and closes the position when everything is priced in and the expected value is zero or negative. Don't judge anyones trades or calls unless you know exactly where he/she thinks there was expected value when making a trade/closing position. Prices go up and down, who cares, it's all about +EV and either you have an edge or you don't.
    • JB
      James B.
      29 December 2018 @ 22:39
      Like Raoul, I loaded up on bitcoin in early 2015 at prices as low as $200. I grimaced when he threw in the towel at $2,000. He’d done the hard work, risks were diminishing rapidly and I felt it was a terrible call. I felt really bad for him at the time! Glad I held tight to add another zero. For me, the key decision point was in January 2016, when core dev Mike Hearn published his suicide note and I vomited out 30% of my position at $375 as a result. Another opportunity may arise ahead of the mining reward halving that will take place in May 2020. https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7
  • eh
    edward h.
    28 December 2018 @ 11:35
    Thank you gentlemen loved it! I live and work in Sydney and because of your podcast and then world on the brink series have started University studying business. Love the channel and check out Martin north of DFA he runs a YouTube channel called walk the world. All the info on the Aus property bubble but I’m sure you already know and have your finger on the pulse. Thanks again and happy new year.
    • MS
      Max S.
      28 December 2018 @ 13:45
      Thanks for the recommendation Edward
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      30 December 2018 @ 11:03
      Martin North is great!
  • JS
    John S.
    28 December 2018 @ 11:28
    Bloody marvelous
  • DS
    Doug S.
    28 December 2018 @ 11:03
    it's so good to see you two blokes together in the same room. Great discussion and somehow reminiscent of the early days of RVTV. We need more of this.
    • AB
      Austin B.
      28 December 2018 @ 17:31
      Agreed!
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    28 December 2018 @ 09:55
    Get more felix zulauf!!! Thx for the great content you guys are legends
    • wb
      willem b.
      28 December 2018 @ 14:27
      Thanks for the interview/conversation. An interesting resource for the Australian Housing market is following website http://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com