Rates and Lottery Tickets

Featuring Alex Rosenberg, Justine Underhill, Roger Hirst

Why will a higher fed funds rates lead to a decline in the number of Americans who play the lottery? Alex, Justine and Roger discuss. Plus, an interesting story about Volkswagen sheds some light on a Tesla mystery. Filmed on June 18, 2018.

Published on
20 June, 2018
Duration
24 minutes
Rating
33

Comments

  • BT

    Brian T.

    26 6 2018 12:57

    0       0

    Interesting connect..... thanks guys!

  • DG

    David G.

    24 6 2018 18:08

    2       0

    Ironically, people making critical comments about 'Knock-on' get thumbs up when people agree with how bad it is, skewing the rating score to appear more positive than it actually is.

    I'm an enthusiastic RV subscriber and have received immense value from this platform, and Adventures in Finance was my go-to podcast ... however since morphing into this new format and after listening in complete anguish I had to quit and dump the podcast.

    My 02/cents: The depth of knowledge and skill-set required to conduct an interview is very different than what is required to be the subject of an interview. I've heard Alex and Justine conduct interviews with highly-experienced investors and the shows where quite good, but when talking/interviewing each other and working through complex concepts out loud it's painfully obvious they are woefully ill-equipped to hold a serious investors attention and are simply way out of their depth. There may be a small cadre of folks who actually enjoy their schtick and gets some value from it but antidotal evidence (reviewer comments) would suggest the vast majority of your subscribers consider this show a total bomb.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    22 6 2018 10:35

    0       1

    I only watched the part of the Volkswagen / Tesla analogy but I reckon that Alex and Roger are mistaken there in their take, and by quite a bit. To start with, I find it adventurous to differentiate between creating economic value by going long and only be a speculator by going short. Long only investors often simply speculate as well as they reckon that the odds are in their favor by going with the crowd (and the newbies since the GFC don't know different since CBs have been propping up the markets in only one direction => eg. David Rosenberg estimates that CBs account for roughly 1000 points of the S&P rally since 3/09). A short seller not only has the crowd against him/her but also needs to fight against the corporate obstacles (case in point: MDXG) and other headwinds. I do not deny that some short seller at times simply jump on the train to speculate along others on a further leg down in prices. But the original short seller enters such a position only after careful consideration (eg David Einhorn on his Lehman short). The comparison to Volkswagen is comparing pears to apples. Why do I say so: I was present at the time when it happened and I had a long/short book and was involved in situation (I luckily only shorted the spike at around 850/900) as we had a fantastic analyst intimately familiar with the German car makers and many well paying HedgeFund clients which were very involved in this, so VOW/VOW3 PAH/PAH3 was a daily topic. The value proposition in the Volkswagen short was totally different from today's Tesla and Alex' suggestion is superficial at best, but rather very naive. There was a time before GFC when price discovery counted for something and that will occur once more, just don't know when exactly.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    21 6 2018 23:46

    0       0

    Reminiscent of a financial version of James Burke’s ‘Connections”

  • PD

    Philip D.

    21 6 2018 22:32

    2       0

    Ok...so here is how I watch this show & it's a wonderful way to stretch my grey matter & not complain! I play along with the hosts...so they give their clues, I do my thinking (pause the video if necessary) & see if I can figure out their rationale.
    For example: in this case my rationale (which was wrong...or who knows) was; increasing interest rates would result in higher repayments for people with all sort of loans resulting in lesser savings...so they would have lesser spare cash to spend on lotteries.
    Play along people!!

  • HH

    Hugh H.

    21 6 2018 21:30

    4       0

    The show is getting better and funny. Good job guys!

  • lb

    larry b.

    21 6 2018 17:57

    1       6

    stupid.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    21 6 2018 12:43

    6       2

    If this was 5-10minutes it would be much better. No need for Justine to 'guess' what the Knock On Effect is and for Roger to Grade her answer.

    Please, just go straight to the point.

    On another note, Alex was a lot better this week. Really appreciate cutting out most of the 'goofyness'