Breaking Down the Crude Market

Featuring Nikhil Dhir

Oil trader Nikhil Dhir, provides an insider’s guide to the crude market, breaking down supply and demand factors from physical purchasers to speculators, as well as the more recent phenomenon of ETF money. In this Think Piece, Nikhil goes on to cover matching conviction to position sizing and gives a useful insight into trading psychology for rollercoaster markets.

Published on
9 January, 2017
Risk Management, Energy Commodities, Psychology
25 minutes
Asset class


  • SS

    Steven S.

    16 1 2017 08:48

    1       0

    Bought a book Financial Founding Fathers by
    Robert E. Wright 10 years ago. In it says that the U.S. became financially strong back in 1800 from having Cheap Labor & some Resources. Nikhil sounds to me like the multitude of people who have graduated school, but has yet to learn Business Leadership, Customer Service & Human Resources. Rich are getting richer & poor are getting poorer. Loved hearing about all the different angles within the work place thou. Thanks!

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    15 1 2017 18:02

    0       0

    Interview date is nov 15, 2016

  • gp

    gs p.

    15 1 2017 15:33

    2       0

    I urge you to consider the following two things.
    1. The interview date should appear, ideally continuously, on the video, and
    2. a summary of highlights should be available for videos, for the interest of time.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    13 1 2017 01:58

    3       0

    A date of interview would be very helpful. Unfortunately RV told me they will no longer disclose interview dates.

  • TE

    Tim E.

    13 1 2017 00:49

    1       0

    Brings out the crucial point that CAPITAL ALLOCATION being super important, and it not easy to build a system that tells you how to allocate capital.

  • CB

    Cliff B.

    12 1 2017 12:53

    2       2

    This young man seems to have many extraneous thoughts and is still trying to define himself

  • MC

    Matthew C.

    11 1 2017 15:53

    5       0

    Anyone starting out as a trader should watch this video every 2 to 3 months, it will be a reassuring experience. Great video from someone who is clearly very in tune with the continual self assessment processes necessary to become a good trader.

  • DK

    Damian K.

    10 1 2017 15:35

    3       1

    Solid and valuable content. No fluff or bs

  • RM

    Robert M.

    10 1 2017 08:59

    1       0

    Top traders must understand markets. This guy has his own perspective .

  • CK

    Chris K.

    10 1 2017 05:23

    2       0

    Interesting insights - thanks RV! Terminology-wise, what does he mean by a "drawdown system"? And also, how does a fund maintain a volatility of 20-25%?

  • JK

    Jeff K.

    10 1 2017 04:39

    3       0

    Can you try and get Pierre Andurand or Andy Hall next time on oil?

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    10 1 2017 04:29

    0       15

    Found this interview this really boring

  • RA

    Robert A.

    10 1 2017 00:05

    3       0

    Excellent. Started watching for "trading oil" and got a bonanza of trading behavioral nuggets---vintage RV. Great takeaways for me that will improve my investment decisions even though I'm not a "trader", which is what our RV curators continually serve up for us. Great job on this one Milton!

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    9 1 2017 21:19

    11       0

    Simply brilliant! Talks like a trader, not like a confident egomaniac. Would love to know, not the exact system, but the general pronciple of "risk management" using "drawdown" as the main input.

  • RN

    Rodgers N.

    9 1 2017 21:06

    1       0

    Good INTERVIEW. I am new to the trading Industry, but love it with all my heart. The point of " WORKING as GROUP" not really working for him has encouraged me since i am on my own.

  • JP

    James P.

    9 1 2017 20:39

    32       0

    Bring this guy back! This is a trader that sounds as if he actually knows how to trade and really understands trader's weaknesses, but also how to improve.

  • WE

    William E.

    9 1 2017 19:28

    1       0

    Certainly understand "now" that its a good thing I am not a trader. Solid interview.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    9 1 2017 17:49

    3       0

    Nicely done! It was enjoyable listening to a relatively young trader describe his growth and evolving decision making processes as he learns more about his particular niche in the markets. Really fascinating discussion!

  • KR


    9 1 2017 17:47

    9       0

    A bit improvised yet very insightful video. Of all, I appreciate the genuine modesty most expressed in the self evaluated success-rate.

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    9 1 2017 16:35

    3       0

    Was this filmed before OPEC and NOPEC decision to cut?

  • RR

    Raghu R.

    9 1 2017 16:34

    3       0

    For a concentrated fund, the risk / performance measures are pretty well managed. I particularly liked the part where he mentions his fund can survive with only 30% win rate.
    Kelly criterion is a fun concept to prove on paper. It is good for building some intuition. Beyond that, the trouble with real life application is in estimating the probability of success in each trial. Does anyone have an example of this with actual market data? Thanks in advance for any pointers.

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    9 1 2017 16:32

    3       0

    lots of pearls of wisdom, specifically in regard to psychology, risk mgmt/position sizing. key tenet is not how often you are right or wrong, but how much you win or lose when you are right or wrong.

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    9 1 2017 16:17

    11       0

    nobody really knows ! Good point and honest commentary. Really liked this Interview.

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    9 1 2017 16:16

    6       0

    I wish they would get more technical into the risk management processes. His breakeven point is a 30% win rate? I would love to see the details of how that works.

  • SB

    Sam B.

    9 1 2017 15:27

    11       0

    Very solid interview. Love that he points out the huge impact that financial buyers have on oil prices (ETF flows in particular). Listening to the mainstream narrative, one comes away with the impression that demand will always grow, there's only a "supply glut" and OPEC cutting 1 MMB/d will fix everything. I tend to share his view on weaker US demand, but I'd be more curious to get his take on what he thinks of EM demand going forward, China most importantly. Massive EM growth was the biggest tailwind to crude demand in the up-cycle from from 2000-2014... what happens in those economies should have the biggest impact on physical market balance for crude.