David R. Kotok – Think Piece

Featuring David R. Kotok

David Kotok, Chairman & CEO of Cumberland Advisors, gives us a historical perspective on the concept of NIRP, explains his expectation that Japan will become a technological innovation superpower, and outlines the opportunities in the energy sector arising from new exporting capabilities.

Published on
22 March, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Global Outlook, Geopolitics
Duration
31 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
36

Comments

  • SI

    Sundar I.

    9 6 2018 01:12

    0       0

    More than 2 yrs after the video came out and he was spot on about the election result.

  • SS

    Sean S.

    21 9 2016 19:49

    0       0

    I thought this was brilliant, such clear thought.

  • dw

    david w.

    2 4 2016 01:09

    2       0

    I agree William - some comments have lately become either cheap and nasty or quite simply stupid. Just because you can't understand another point of view doesn't necessarily make it invalid. Cheers

  • WM

    Will M.

    1 4 2016 18:55

    4       0

    I wish this forum would be careful with personal insults. What he said was definitely not BS and his delivery was clear and measured. We can't all be entertaining and captivating.

  • WM

    Will M.

    1 4 2016 18:54

    0       0

    Excellent piece from a man with EXPERIENCE. He makes some very good points & probably ties in well with Martin Armstrong's views re political disgruntlement & the switch from "public to private".

  • KE

    Kenan E.

    31 3 2016 13:32

    1       1

    But HEY -- SOMEONE has to be on the other side of the trade... Mr. Kotok will be one of those guys ;-)

    So you are welcome to go on and "buy the dip". Good luck!

  • KE

    Kenan E.

    31 3 2016 13:31

    4       0

    Oh come on. ZIRP will result in all kinds of stuff going higher -- REALLY?? I think this will only work unti it stops working. And then we will dicover where the real prices are...

  • HS

    Hubert S.

    30 3 2016 19:30

    0       1

    suffered through it until: "defense expenditures in the US have to increase - they have been too tight too long".
    Do these guys really believe that ?
    Elefant in the anglo-saxon room: MIC

  • AR

    Andrew R.

    29 3 2016 18:54

    0       6

    Really need a 2X speed on this guy. Who has time to suffer through this monotone BS.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    28 3 2016 00:39

    0       0

    hyperinflation as well as other countries that started wars to reinvent their economies. What happened to their bonds? went up in price and thus up in value!

  • AE

    Alex E.

    28 3 2016 00:38

    1       0

    infinity, no? So, 0 interest rates should produce infinitely high equity prices...See Amazon, Google, et. al. for some proof. As for defense spending, see Weimar Germany and how it got out of .....

  • AE

    Alex E.

    28 3 2016 00:35

    1       0

    Alexander, If you think bonds are low risk, ask the bondholders of Cypress, Argentina and Detroit how low risk their bonds are! Did you not take Grade 4 Arithmetic? Dividing anything by 0 yields .....

  • MH

    Marco H.

    27 3 2016 15:52

    0       0

    So when you can borrow at 1% or less for 30 to 40 years your average stock return should be slightly higher to pay back the principal. Sounds OK but feels to good to be true.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    27 3 2016 15:08

    1       1

    Finally, defense spending, financed at zero rates (hence 'free') as driver of economy? Really? War as the answer to stagnation? How did bonds and stocks fare of countries involved in wars?

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    27 3 2016 15:06

    2       1

    If inverse bond yield = stock market P/E, and zero = infinity, then negative yields would imply negative stock prices? Doesn't that show the complete nonsense of this 'equation'?

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    27 3 2016 15:05

    2       1

    First 15mins he reads off international rates. Then states there is no inflation, but doesn't explain why. Compares inverse P/E of a real, risky asset with yield of a nominal, low-risk asset.

  • JS

    Jon S.

    24 3 2016 19:01

    5       0

    I love this guy. He is so captivating.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    24 3 2016 04:26

    7       0

    Contemplating the law of unintended consequences from NIRP is heavy lifting. RealVision is stretching my mind. Interested in Japanese companies that will benefit from a grown in robotic & AI spend.

  • DG

    Dendy G.

    23 3 2016 15:07

    6       0

    So awesome. Real thumbs-up for RV

  • NF

    Nico F.

    23 3 2016 11:57

    1       1

    Mr Kotok, *why* are interest rates going to remain at 0? How does an economy look where interest rates remain at zero for another decade? Sure,there can be more multiple expansion but UST looks better

  • RP

    Ron P.

    23 3 2016 10:54

    7       0

    A very wise man indeed. He has just explained why the stock market is not the economy and that you could see the dollar , stocks and gold all go up at the same time

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    23 3 2016 05:32

    10       0

    More old guys please. They've been around the block a few times unlike most of us, even if we read history, it doesn't compare.

  • AS

    ANDREW S.

    23 3 2016 04:04

    2       0

    Awesome !!!!!

  • ss

    sid s.

    23 3 2016 00:00

    8       0

    captivating..

  • CD

    Charles D.

    22 3 2016 21:37

    6       0

    Good thesis...ZIRP...NIRP...earnings yields for equities off the charts...hmmm...but no mention of the exponential increase in the debt bubble that these policies cause....until something ruptures.

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    22 3 2016 18:38

    7       0

    Star wars shout out #DarthAbe

  • db

    don b.

    22 3 2016 18:36

    2       0

    "Zero interest rate policy will be at zero or below for the rest of the decade."
    Unless people see fiat for what it really is and run to Gresham's Law. #Keynesian

  • rs

    richard s.

    22 3 2016 18:13

    4       0

    The prospect of a robotic war, is beyond terrifying. Wait till these machines have AI and start protesting like 1968.

  • rs

    richard s.

    22 3 2016 17:58

    7       0

    David just told us everything he learned in the last 50 years was wrong. What he does not get is that includes valuation models. It misses capturing something, likely the business cycle

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    22 3 2016 16:08

    3       0

    Here in lies the problem with an overpriced bond market. How do you price equities? A lot of people on this site including Raoul himself believe bond yields are going lower and will have to stay low.

  • BB

    Brian B.

    22 3 2016 15:57

    5       0

    Brilliant!

  • DT

    DAN T.

    22 3 2016 15:10

    3       3

    Makes my ears bleed.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    22 3 2016 15:06

    8       0

    Now here is a man that thinks. I must think about what he said.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    22 3 2016 14:57

    3       0

    The fact of storytelling hints at a fundamental human unease, hints at human imperfection. Where there is perfection there is no story to tell.

  • LV

    Lex V.

    22 3 2016 14:48

    22       0

    Fantastic. Great presentation and clarity of thought from an experienced head.