Forces Building Behind Le Pen

Featuring Dr. Pippa Malmgren

Dr. Pippa Malmgren predicted both Brexit and Trump and the former presidential policy advisor offers a personal view on the crucial French elections in this Think Piece. With the forces building behind Marine Le Pen, Dr. Malmgren thinks she will be the big winner of the election, regardless of the result, as the focus moves to the parliamentary elections in June and the next Presidential elections in 2022. Filmed on April 27, 2017, in Paris.

Published on
4 May, 2017
Topic
Europe, Politics
Duration
8 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies
Rating
18

Comments

  • IA

    Izzy A.

    28 4 2018 13:02

    0       0

    She got that wrong. And would like to see proof of where she got Trump and Brexit ‘right’. Does ‘but we cannot rule out a Trump victory’ qualify?

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    8 5 2017 04:39

    5       0

    Oops, she got this call very wrong.

  • SB

    Sandeep B.

    7 5 2017 07:11

    2       1

    Dear Real Vision, many thanks for getting Dr Pippa Malmgren on your site. Her analysis on the Brexit, Trump, the Italian and now the French elections have been a pleasure to study. A real asset to the team!

    As for this video I agree. I see the same thing in the last elections when investors get complacent ahead of a vote. Macron likely will win per polls and odds but Le Pen already has the forces which will allow her to mount a better challenge in 5 years. A Le Pen win however will catch everyone offside..!

  • NK

    Nikos K.

    7 5 2017 02:49

    0       2

    Spot on! I guess you need a non European to tell the truth about Europe

  • AA

    Alan A.

    6 5 2017 23:59

    0       0
  • JC

    John C.

    6 5 2017 12:05

    1       1

    re trading isn't a Macron win sort of already priced in? French equity ETF was up a lot on Friday. Buy the rumor / sell the news? What is so good about a Macron win? Nothing will change, he's a socialist in drag etc etc. And Le Pen is a socialist economically as well so why would we expect France's economy to 'turn around' with either candidate? Charles Gave's interview really drove home the point re how much trouble France is in economically. It's really hard to think any of their politicians will be able to make the hard choices and start cutting benefits/welfare/immigration etc. Just look at what's going on with Trump.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    5 5 2017 18:53

    2       1

    Wonderful and truly under the surface factual analysis Pippa. Just wake me when we have more than a few hours to get involved in market trends. All the best! Vinnie

  • MA

    Mark A.

    5 5 2017 16:16

    0       5

    I'm going to go on long on Macron. If Marine Le Pen survives the Russian loan scandal fallout which is sure to come back, she cannot effectively execute her policies.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      5 5 2017 17:14

      2       0

      Russian loan scandal? I believe she just borrowed some money from the Russians because they were the only ones willing to lend her money and she paid it back, so... ? Where is the scandal?

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    5 5 2017 16:00

    3       0

    Terrific. Though I believe a big driver of Brexit, Trump, and LePen support is distrust of the entrenched establishment in govt has reached a tipping point. Public is aware that all the promised benefits are hoaxes because they cannot be paid for. That debt has become the big constraint. Leadership has failed and lied about it. hence the against vote is the emotional driver. First seen in Arab Spring.

    • AA

      Alan A.

      7 5 2017 00:01

      1       1

      Ditto the US. No one under 50 expects a dime of Social Security. Only a matter of time before a big blow up!

  • dd

    darrell d.

    4 5 2017 21:28

    2       0

    Sooner or later that brick wall of debt and mountains of regulation will have to be faced.

  • CY

    C Y.

    4 5 2017 21:11

    3       0

    This was a mind blowing analysis. I love that she zeroed in not necessarily on the election results (as it could go either way), but on the momentum on Le Pen's side. Really insightful analysis.

  • JA

    Jason A.

    4 5 2017 19:30

    0       1

    Short the euro

  • DS

    David S.

    4 5 2017 17:06

    2       0

    To understand the effects of tribalism and globalization on disparate economies vis-a-vis immigration, I suggest Dee Smith's October, 2016 interview. To understand the possible outcomes and some trading ideas on the French election, I suggest Pipa's interview with Charles Gave.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    4 5 2017 15:46

    3       1

    Pippa if le Pen wins the markets will be in utter chaos -and im sure! The challenge to anyone Grant/Raoul is to attempt to figure out this rubriks cube outcome ? ECB ends -all EU members get their own central bank and currency etc. If she loses its Italy at bat next year but the EU will end and the major winner is Gold.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    4 5 2017 15:37

    6       3

    Thank u Pippa! I enjoy your interviews! U are smart, a realist & down-to-earth. I think LePen wins & it is just my opinion. Macron is Hollande in another form. Shame on Macron's wife- she met him when he was a young boy (15). France was such a beautiful country when I visited over a decade ago. If I were a French citizen, I would want out of this Euro debacle further spiraling into no growth & more chaos. At some point, u have to take your country back.

  • bf

    bart f.

    4 5 2017 13:52

    0       0

    I am very confused by EM: is he the candidate of change he claims to be or just a by-product of the political establishment merging into an extreme center. Reform or status quo is what matters in the mid-term. The difference between France and US/UK is that the extreme are coming from both sides with same intensity but the institutions allow the center to fight just on one front. So we might see a political landscape equally divided between 3 extremes: left, center and right and France carries on rolling until the mistrust reaches over 50%.

    • MD

      Mathieu D.

      4 5 2017 14:57

      4       0

      Bart, EM is not center, he is socialist but had no chance to win as a socialist, given Hollande had the lowest popularity ever for a French president, 5% at some point. So he rebranded him self by creating its own party. The socialist party with Hamon got 6.4% of the votes at the first round. A center may appear, Fillon who is right said he would vote for Macron, but I doubt his followers will listen to him because many people will prefer voting Le Pen than left. That's why I think Pipa is spot on (and Charles Gave) saying it s likely that Le Pen will get much more than 40%. There is lots of uncertainty on 50% of the voters. I think it is not a trump scenario on Sunday and Macron will wind, but as Pipa says, Le Pen has already won, she is going to increase her power a lot in the legislative elections, and can get 40-100 MPs instead of 2 now. Same for Melanchon. Even if she gets 40% of the votes in the second round, its 22% more than her father in 2002 who got 18% vs Chirac. That's increasing her score 1% more every year. So if Macron brings the status quo, you see a situation where she will have much more power in the parliament in June and is in a good position to win in 2022.

  • DS

    DAVID S.

    4 5 2017 13:03

    9       1

    I agree 100% Pipa, Macron seems to have the odds on his side but if he wins I cannot see him getting above 60%, probably around 55%. That means, He doesn't a strrong majority in seats. In addition, the 'legislative elections will sure be dominated by the FN and in than sense, Lepen could well be in a cohabitation gov. If Lepen wins this election, she will win with a tight. score difference.. however her majority should be re-enforced by the legislative election and she will have a consolidated gov. , either way she wins!!... I think from a makrket point of view the most likely affected short term will be the EUR/GPD and the fench/EU banks like BNP paribas, credit agricole etc... I agree tha medium term, teh market might be seeing this as positive for Europe and the Gernman election in Sept then the Italian election next year will be under scrutiny. One more point. If T. May gets a strong result in teh general election, chances are she might harden the negotiation with Europe in a way that she could be empowered enough to refuse some payments claimed. Which in a sense would test Europe as a power and might weaken it. ... :0)

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    4 5 2017 11:54

    0       0

    Loved the Charles Gave interview. Markets are definitely not priced for what they would view as a disappointment and Le Pen is by no means a business person (ie unlikely to be Trump-like positive). Why would she be positive for the markets? I get the Cac40 argument but why positive for other markets? Gave suggested the bond market could be shut if she wins