Macro Chartist Illuminates Recovery Stress Points

Featuring Eric Pomboy

Eric Pomboy is one of the most highly-respected chartists in the market, helping institutional investors, hedge funds and market commentators make key investment decisions on a daily basis.

Eric’s deep-dives into all aspects of key economic data throw up a series of charts which at a single glance simplify remarkably complex stories. Getting access to Eric’s work will help investors understand how unfolding data identifies key stress points in what is clearly an anemic recovery.

Published on
28 November, 2016
Topic
US Economy, Macro, Energy Commodities
Duration
35 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Equities, Real Estate
Rating
20

Comments

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    21 6 2017 17:38

    0       0

    Fantastic tying in of all the charted data and what it means for the future outlooks of the markets. Also like the thinking as he drill down and compares the data. Want more of this. Great explanation.

  • SE

    Seif E.

    29 1 2017 18:17

    0       0

    Where do you obtain this data? Can't find it it on the BLS website

  • CM

    Corey M.

    17 1 2017 01:32

    0       0

    Now I'm off to calculate what CPI and CPE would be if you net out the effects of those categories that have > 3-5% YOY growth... i.e. what would true demand driven inflation be when correcting for the effects of non-discretionary spending (RE) and taxes (healthcare/ACA).

  • JC

    Joe C.

    23 12 2016 20:33

    0       0

    Interesting that earnings have been declining all year when the Citibank Economic Surprise Index has been rising. Perhaps estimates are getting cut drastically to hide the bad news. Would love to see some kind of chart of mean earnings estimates vs actual earnings through 2016

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    19 12 2016 03:38

    0       0

    Some how I missed this interview. It is very cool, I look at the same metrics through the eyes of a hobbyist and knew there was a pony in the poop. Awesome data narratives.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    12 12 2016 19:52

    3       0

    excellent. Please have him on quarterly!!

  • MM

    Michael M.

    11 12 2016 01:12

    2       0

    Nothing like a lot of data to present your work. Great job

  • CV

    Cesar V.

    9 12 2016 19:12

    5       0

    Great video. It would be nice to see him with new info. every 3-6 months. This video has a lot of wonderful and value added info. Thank you Real Vision.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    8 12 2016 16:44

    0       0

    Thank you!!!!! Brings some sanity in to my thinking. Please see if Eric would grace us with his presence again

  • SL

    Steven L.

    8 12 2016 15:17

    1       0

    Excellent! I hope Eric can do at least a quarterly update. His work is SO important.

  • AP

    Alfonso P.

    8 12 2016 12:50

    0       0

    just imagine for a second a joint Stephanie and Eric presentation, would be as we have had Raoul and Grant together in the past! Excelent presentation Eric

  • EM

    Enrico M.

    7 12 2016 13:09

    1       0

    fantastic interview and very interesting charts. it is hard, if not impossible, to argue that financial assets are priced according to fundamentals. but still, they keep on getting higher, purely on the believe of most participants that they will keep on rising. a dangerous reflexive process which will not end well, but that can keep going for a long time.

  • JF

    John F.

    3 12 2016 21:53

    1       0

    Great research. I like when you created information by massaging the data. Good job!

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    3 12 2016 13:33

    2       1

    Highly informative and presented in a very humble & detailed way. Great quality. Thanks a lot!

  • MP

    Mark P.

    2 12 2016 04:45

    15       0

    Great charts and fresh, clear presentation. II would humbly add that overlaying demographics, namely the aging baby boomers, could account for some of the rise in health costs and lowering of consumer spending independent of any other variables. I am no fan of ACA, but the power of demographics ought be considered in light of correlation vs causation, at least in regards to the root causes of the divergent trends in health care and general consumption. That said, yet another outstanding RVTV piece. Keep up,the invaluable work!

    Mark

  • SP

    Steve P.

    1 12 2016 06:22

    3       0

    Thank you Coxey C for bringing to our attention the fact that money velocity is greatly influenced by the denominator (or Money Supply)). Wonder what the "true" MV figure would be (say based on 2000 M2). MV is a great indicator of general economic health and CB 'printing' obviously distorts the true economic picture (intended ???????????).

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    1 12 2016 05:46

    12       0

    Been a viewer since forever and have watched at least 90% of the shows. This ranks right up there in the top 5 or 10 percent for sure. Bravo Mr. Pomboy! And Bravo RV as well!

  • fc

    frank c.

    30 11 2016 16:04

    2       0

    makes me feel sane again....

  • BG

    Brad G.

    30 11 2016 15:06

    5       0

    It is tough to go through that much data but it pays off when you can see the reality of what many people might be noticing about healthcare in particular. Many people when they get any kind of serious illness are forced to go bankrupt because of the costs even with insurance. Permanently cripple the consumer.

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    30 11 2016 14:56

    10       0

    He is confirming exactly what Michael Hudson said in his interview - the FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) sector is taking up such a large part of consumer household income that it is impacting their ability to spend on consumer goods. US economy is 70% based on consumer goods - doesn't take a genius to figure out which way the economy is going.

  • CB

    Cliff B.

    30 11 2016 12:17

    5       0

    Excellent, excellent, excellent. A subperb view of what is really happening in the US economy

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    30 11 2016 10:29

    3       0

    Excellent presentation. I don't know about recovery though, nearly every chart presented had Recession written all over it.

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    30 11 2016 04:16

    10       0

    Loved this, bring him back !!!!

  • JS

    Jon S.

    30 11 2016 03:10

    8       1

    Thanks Nancy Pelosi! Next time read the darn bill before calling a vote on it! Perhaps it was read, but the staggered future costs associated with the ACA do not get associated with the guilty legislators!

  • Bc

    Beth c.

    30 11 2016 03:01

    7       0

    Just shows we are going through a very fragile recovery since the great recession or mini depression...whatever you want to call it and have a long way to go to a decent recovery. Like Fed said in a white paper in 2011 on their website this recovery is shallow and slow and more similar to great depression recovery.

  • OL

    Otto L.

    30 11 2016 02:41

    1       1

    Wow, looks like PEOTUS Trump is priced for perfection!. Thanks Eric and RealVision.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    30 11 2016 01:42

    10       0

    Oh those Pomboys. Oh those charts. Just a great video and even though those charts were "easy" for we viewers I can't imagine the work and creative thinking that went into them. Grant likes charts. Raoul likes charts. Thanks to RV I'm starting to develop a greater appreciation for them as well.

  • LV

    Lynn V.

    30 11 2016 00:32

    5       0

    More and more $ going to healthcare for people working in the trenches has been happening for several years. I see it all around me.

  • PV

    Peter V.

    29 11 2016 23:40

    2       0

    Not flawless but great content. It paints a worrying picture and counters the current investment narrative.
    Thanks!

  • VS

    Victor S.

    29 11 2016 20:54

    1       0

    Very helpful analysis

  • TS

    Tyler S.

    29 11 2016 20:31

    0       0

    I hear its user friendly...

  • DG

    Dana G.

    29 11 2016 20:27

    5       0

    One of the most telling and insightful pieces on the US Economy from Real Vision. A plus work.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    29 11 2016 20:25

    2       0

    Very worthwhile. It would be good to see updates periodically.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    29 11 2016 09:41

    4       0

    would appreciate some empirical evidence on the "less expensive" internet merchandise vs brick and mortar

  • HE

    Henry E.

    29 11 2016 08:38

    13       1

    Doom porn at its best. Going to need a bigger safe for my gold.

  • JS

    John S.

    29 11 2016 06:40

    9       0

    What a valuable session scary

  • CR

    Charlie R.

    29 11 2016 05:46

    4       0

    Great decomposition of the oft discussed "weak consumer" and sagging retail sales #'s! Record buybacks no doubt driving SPX divergence relative to $ velocity. Solid data to support your observed reality! Thanks RV!

  • JH

    Joel H.

    29 11 2016 05:45

    1       0

    Great segment.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    29 11 2016 04:42

    10       0

    The velocity of money is the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another and how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money.

    We know the FED has been printing money, so the sharp rise in the denominator must drive M2 to record lows. But this money isn't appearing in "the economy" because it was being used as bank reserves.
    http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2016/08/qe-and-amazing-demand-for-money.html
    Eric,
    How can you adjust your charts for this effect?

    PS. Grant/Raoul, I would love to see you interview Scott Grannis as a counter to all the bear arguments

  • sb

    sandeep b.

    29 11 2016 04:09

    6       8

    you lost me at 'internet sales may be sign of a stressed consumer'

  • AK

    Andy K.

    29 11 2016 00:31

    4       27

    The ACA is not itself a "tax." The penalty for remaining uninsured is a tax, but not the coverage. Stick to the charts.

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    29 11 2016 00:09

    0       0

    If retailers begin to lay off their temp workforce what impact it could have on currently booming internet sales.

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    29 11 2016 00:08

    2       1

    It certainly is intresting and nicely presented. But don't we know already that consumer has been weak - retail sales have been sluggish for several years now. And sales continue to weak we are likel

  • SV

    Steven V.

    28 11 2016 22:37

    15       0

    I really enjoyed his analysis and charts. I hope you have him back soon!

  • ps

    phil s.

    28 11 2016 21:29

    18       0

    Another example of looking at data for what it is, rather than what we hope it is. Well Done

  • SS

    Sam S.

    28 11 2016 20:10

    16       0

    As I've learned from Pal & Williams----doesn't matter to anyone until it matters to everyone. It will matter and does matter. Thanks Eric & RV TV!

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    28 11 2016 19:47

    15       0

    Exceptional analysis. These Pomboys are smart.

  • CG

    Chuck G.

    28 11 2016 19:33

    9       4

    All this velocity of $ talk is justa reflection of the waste of QE - therefore, I discount the velocity comparison charts... If Treasury monetized its holdings, velocity would rise, no? The charts are all interesting but does any A cause any B? Lastly, the comment about looking for a chart that would say what he was looking for was pretty disturbing... That's confirmation bias, right?

  • GC

    Gary C.

    28 11 2016 18:14

    26       0

    Wow, he is as amazing as his sister. I suspect RV viewers will want him recalled.

  • PH

    Philip H.

    28 11 2016 17:46

    21       1

    Very very instructive and reinforces the feeling that without more QE this equity market is looking more and more like Wile E Coyote!

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    28 11 2016 17:43

    15       5

    If anyone wonders if we could take another Democratic administration just watch this.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    28 11 2016 17:42

    50       0

    Very understandable.
    Great presentation for all I think.
    Sure beats Bloomberg.
    I'd like to see this and updates regularly.
    Good job for RV clients.
    Thank you