Michael Nicoletos – Think Piece

Featuring Michael Nicoletos

Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of AppleTree Capital explores the political, behavioral, societal, macro and fiscal situation in Greece, giving objective analysis on debt burden and possible outcomes. Nicoletos shares his take on the importance of timing and liquidity, and looks at Russia and Turkey in terms of their macro and geopolitical positioning.

Published on
26 June, 2016
Topic
Risk Management, Europe, Politics
Duration
35 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
29

Comments

  • JF

    John F.

    18 10 2016 03:13

    0       0

    1.) Greece has a problem enforcing tax collection.
    2.) On the other hand, Greece had not been invited sufficiently, into the fabric of trade which is necessary to develop the required cash flow.
    3.) When you do business in the middle east you discover A.) a contract is impossible to enforce, B.) labor productivity is extremely low because labor is not qualified by training and competency and is over ridden by the culture of inclusion and friendship. C.) The skill to misuse the trust someone has handed you is tolerated.
    The problem is that in contrast to the middle east, the better developed countries in the West, have a culture where people have a respect for contract law. And, where professional competency is the judge for inclusion.
    Unless you get close enough to these environments to see the inefficiencies, you run the risk of placing the wrong bet.

  • KB

    Kreso B.

    5 7 2016 22:02

    0       3

    J. Christ... why is everyone so excited in their comments.Absolutely nothing new.
    And, the interviewee learned on liquidity problems in thin markets... losing investors money.
    And what's the itchy nose all about?

  • GB

    Grant B.

    30 6 2016 09:59

    3       1

    Very insightful. Great interview. Please keep stuff like this coming. It really adds to the big picture.

  • DE

    Dionisia E.

    28 6 2016 21:22

    3       1

    great insights! I agree 100% with his description of what's the mentality of greeks right now. I honestly can't find a solution for the Greek drama. Drahma is not a viable solution. The patient will be dead before the and of the operation. On the other head, laws passed right know ask for 70-75% of an entrepreneur's annual income. It simply can't be done. Unfortunately, damage done in Greece might not be reversible.

  • DE

    Dionisia E.

    28 6 2016 21:22

    2       1

    great insights! I agree 100% with his description of what's the mentality of greeks right now. I honestly can't find a solution for the Greek drama. Drahma is not a viable solution. The patient will be dead before the and of the operation. On the other head, laws passed right know ask for 70-75% of an entrepreneur's annual income. It simply can't be done. Unfortunately, damage done in Greece might not be reversible.

  • DS

    David S.

    28 6 2016 06:05

    7       0

    What a wealth of wisdom from a young man. (I am 70, so he is young to me.) Wisdom from trying to run a hedge fund in the crucible that is Greece. Real insights on long-short liquidity to money being buried in pressure cookers. From the global macro to the existential. Regardless of "in the Euro" or "out of the Euro", Greece must restructure; easier within the Euro. I wish Michael and Greece all the luck in the world.

  • GH

    Gregory H.

    28 6 2016 03:24

    2       0

    Great Foresight with the last comment about "bumps" in June...

  • RM

    Richard M.

    27 6 2016 18:29

    12       0

    Refreshing and realistic viewpoint from someone on the ground in Greece. I fear his view of the fatalistic attitude of the Greek population (really the whole of the developed nations) is spot on and things will come to a boil soon (especially now with the Brexit decision being chosen). It would be good to have him back on after the next Greek blow-up to get more on the ground perspectives. Thanks!

  • MT

    MICHAEL T.

    27 6 2016 16:40

    5       0

    Really good interview Thank you. Have been waiting a long time to hear about Greece. Thanks for sharing lessons learned about L/S liquidity & timing /scaling.
    Good to hear about how sentiment develops under austerity.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    27 6 2016 15:27

    4       0

    The EU can not afford to set the precedent of letting the Greeks off the hook for fear of others wanting the same treatment. So Greece is stuck in limbo until Greek society collapses and rebels? EU must then keep the pressure on but not push Greece past it's boiling point? All the while the EU is fighting other fires... Complex system that seems to currently be near a minor failure point, but any point of failure puts more stress on the system as a whole.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    27 6 2016 14:38

    4       0

    very interesting, I'll probably revisit this once Greece becomes a focus point again, which I think will happen very soon!