Policy Target for Future Finance Shocks

Published on
4 October, 2016
Topic
Brexit, Monetary policy, Japan
Duration
30 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit

Policy Target for Future Finance Shocks

Featuring Russell Jones

Russell Jones, Partner at Llewellyn Consulting, draws from his deep well of macroeconomic experience to answer the question: what do central banks do if we get hit with another shock to the economy.

Published on
4 October, 2016
Topic
Brexit, Monetary policy, Japan
Duration
30 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
127
Sharing

Comments

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    20 2 2017 15:22

    0       0

    Isn't the end result of all this that: you can constantly spend beyond your means as money is unlimited and growth has to happen at all costs?

  • DS

    David S.

    23 10 2016 06:46

    0       0

    Since time does not exit, we cannot go back and try another approach. In my opinion the government/Wall Street generated 2008 financial crisis had and still has no solutions but pain - long-term pain. We should, however, try our best to stop these excesses from happening again.

  • DS

    David S.

    23 10 2016 06:43

    1       0

    Since time does not exit, we cannot go back and try another approach. In my opinion the government/Wall Street generated 2008 financial crisis had and still has no solutions but pain - long-term pain. It seems that t

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    17 10 2016 00:17

    2       0

    So the 116 down votes is because.....you don't like the interview, the interviewee or the message (s)? It seems to me that a lot of down votes for the message. Good job getting him on - when he said the gold standard was a failure, then I woke up and expected that to be the reason for all the down votes. This crowd is too intellectual for me but that is why I am here , to learn.

  • ml

    michael l.

    17 10 2016 00:00

    0       0

    I appreciate the views and Russell is clearly quite bright, but I am of the view that the monetary playbook is exhausted and that more of the same will get us nowhere in terms of reigniting growth. And as for fiscal policy, yes, I see the benefit of an infrastructure build, but I wish macroeconomists wouldn't stop there - that's easy and without risk to propose, and yet it is a temporary solution and far from sufficient on its own. What about tax reform, regulatory reform, entitlement reform, and in Europe, labor reform? Monetary policy has allowed politicians to avoid these tough questions. In the US presidential election, there isn't any discussion of these matters, and there really hasn't been for years because, hey, the stock market is up, so why is one complaining?! Central bankers need to say that they have done enough and politicians need to pick up the baton. Yeah, I know, wishful thinking.

  • IG

    Ivens G.

    15 10 2016 15:02

    1       0

    Great presentation. Always good to here different arguments.

  • B

    Bojo .

    14 10 2016 11:27

    1       0

    A good, articulate presentation and I agree with a lot of it. I still don't get how this is going to add up in the end, without huge pain.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    13 10 2016 21:50

    0       0

    Where is G Orwell?

  • SL

    Steven L.

    13 10 2016 18:42

    4       0

    I too appreciate Russell's well articulated views and, unless populism derails the apparent path, I suspect the future holds more of the same for us. I would appreciate hearing an effects of brexit debate between Russell & Pippa Malmbren..

  • RJ

    Russell J.

    13 10 2016 13:24

    3       0

    Thanks for all the comments on my interview. Very interesting for the most part, although I could have done without some of the personal insults, which were unecessary and a bit sad in truth. I must confess that in advance I was not aware that I was putting my head into quite such a lion's mouth of von Misesian sentiment. One question for you Austrians: How do you create a parallel universe where policy rates can be suspended above what is an historically low natural rate? Surely such efforts must be self-defeating? RJ

  • WM

    Will M.

    9 10 2016 13:19

    2       0

    I think his comments about infrastructure spending are becoming the new mantra and the most likely approach we are heading for (whether Clinton or Trump wins the US election). I also think his admission that "we are making it up as we go along" should not surprised any of us and is totally reflective of central bankers and economic policy making. His comments on Greece are probably more driven by his personally connections. The policy makers let the political people who "caused" Greece's problems completely off the hook and so the Greek people are suffering. I agree with many here that its good to hear what the establishment is likely thinking. Good job RV for bringing this perspective to our view.

  • S

    Sigurður .

    8 10 2016 17:02

    1       0

    Re: Greece - default and subsequent devaluation by leaving the Euro is the only option for the country (just by looking realistically at the situation). Very painful process but necessary. After this, a flush of money will stream into the country to build it up as it holds huge potential if the scrubbing of the economy has happened.

  • dj

    daniel j.

    8 10 2016 08:46

    1       0

    Buuuuuu

  • GS

    Greg S.

    8 10 2016 01:39

    3       0

    I disagree with a lot of what he had to say . I think it's great that you make available presenters that may have opposing views. It makes me think more about my own position on the matter at hand.

  • DT

    Douglas T.

    7 10 2016 17:16

    5       0

    Clearly and intelligent and articulate guy, but he is 100% invested in Keynesianism and the obvious Excellence of Government Economic Management. Breathtaking denial! He gets close when he says debt borrows from the future. But he deosn't add that mal-investment of that borrowed money is what prevents the future from being able to pay for it. Of course, we are now living in that 'future'.

  • JL

    Jacob L.

    5 10 2016 13:20

    16       0

    Greatly appreciated that you have someone on with views that more closely reflect those of the central banks than most on RV. In that sense Russell is a contrarian if you will ;) Right or wrong is not the issue (noone knows with absolute certainty anyway). Diverging opinions is what is important for a site such as RV. I wonder why a diverging view intelligently expressed by Russell is so under appreciated among viewers?

  • JW

    J W.

    5 10 2016 10:08

    2       0

    Mainstream position without much real vision style thinking. Smart guy and great accent, but...

  • JM

    John M.

    5 10 2016 03:15

    2       0

    Does Japan need to change its policies on immigration? How well is immigration working for Europe? Lots of talk about various monetary policy options /solutions. I prefer to spend much much more time understanding the root problem!

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    5 10 2016 02:56

    5       0

    I loved the sentence "We're making this up as we go along". Priceless...

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    5 10 2016 02:34

    25       0

    I worked with Russell at Lehman, he's a very smart guy and works with John Llewellyn who is one of the cleverest men out there. But John worked for the OECD for 20 years and so they do represent a world view of the insiders within the Central Banks, IMF and 'power elite' of PhD Economists.
    It seems to me that 8 years after the fall of Lehman these people are sttill trying to stabilise the system not improve it. The essential problem whether it be Greece, Japan or the Westt generally is that central bankers cannot generate prospersity via monetray policy. Only private business can do that, and they are generally quite low in animal spirits now, as evidenced by their cash pile.

  • JM

    James M.

    5 10 2016 02:25

    5       0

    I enjoyed the views presented, however, I think the format fails. There is plenty of material to digger deeper into and/or argue with, thus an interviewer should be present. The value of this site is the ability to not simply be an Opt-Ed piece, but to be able to press a theory or topic. Raul/Grant or someone else should have been there to help direct the discussion; otherwise it looks like a school lecture.

  • JG

    Joe G.

    5 10 2016 02:09

    1       1

    Wow, A long way from reality

  • LH

    Leigh H.

    5 10 2016 01:54

    4       1

    "Some people are stupid in the way that only smart people can be stupid."

  • PL

    Peter L.

    4 10 2016 23:36

    17       0

    While I respect all opinions, I think there is a level of unhealthy intellectual hubris in thinking that, for example, interest rates will stay low forever simply by mandate of central banks or that people will allow tax on cash. The hubris in believing that the economic levers can be completely controlled by a small group of individuals, including central bankers, beyond belief.

  • RS

    Roger S.

    4 10 2016 21:30

    6       0

    "If things get worse the central banks just can't do nothing." Yes it is always better to do something to make it even more worse just to be doing something using the continued argument that it would have been worse if we hadn't done something.

  • M

    Mark .

    4 10 2016 21:28

    7       0

    Have him back to explain his confidence in politicians completing projects for positive ROI. I just don’t see it.

  • PR

    Peter R.

    4 10 2016 21:03

    13       1

    I think if you look back on this conversation in 5 years you will be shocked how close it is to the actual events. There is a difference between what you want to happen and what will happen..........

  • PR

    Peter R.

    4 10 2016 21:03

    8       1

    I think if you look back on this conversation in 5 years you will be shocked how close it is to the actual events. There is a difference between what you want to happen and what will happen..........

  • AV

    Alex V.

    4 10 2016 20:20

    3       3

    This is the type of status quo defender I would expect to see on Charlie Rose Bloomberg establishment TV.

  • AV

    Alex V.

    4 10 2016 20:18

    10       1

    They had to do something to end the depression? Like start a war? "We are all Keynesians in the foxhole" is ironically true since the Keynesian policies helped start the war that led to the foxhole.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    4 10 2016 19:54

    15       2

    Just finished the entire piece. This guy is the third amigo of the Krugman, Bernanke Keynsian/Moneterrorist posse!

  • PU

    Peter U.

    4 10 2016 19:33

    15       0

    When has the government really demonstrated the skills to allocate capital via fiscal spending? His assumption assumes government spending achieves private capital like returns. I'll have none of that sir!

  • JH

    Jacqueline H.

    4 10 2016 19:22

    16       3

    Whatever any government does, it does badly and at a higher cost. Looking to governments and central bankers to solve our economic woes will push us all into the abyss. Rather we should dramatically reduce regulation, subsidies, and taxes, and severely reign in or eliminate central banks, thereby removing roadblocks to business expansion, employment, and free market action. The world needs the exact opposite of what he is proposing.

  • BG

    Bruno G.

    4 10 2016 19:18

    12       0

    With all that is going on with European banks, esp DB, I think some timely insight would very valuable. Either Raul or Grant or an outside voice would be more prescient at this time. What you all think?

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    4 10 2016 18:50

    6       0

    "there is not a more compelling reason for a devaluation (Greece) but I am not suggesting that it leaves the Euro.." this sums up a bit the content of his elaborations, simply hedging his bets too much without providing clear views/opinions. why so shy?

  • JV

    JACK V.

    4 10 2016 16:16

    47       5

    This gentleman provides a valuable reminder/representation of the central banker mindset. I disagree with nearly every element of his economic philosophy and related policy prescriptions. However, it is important to "know your enemy." Central bankers will indeed respond to the ongoing/next crisis by continuing their currently flawed responses (and by potentially implementing "new" ideas which will prove even more destructive over the long term). It is constructive to be reminded of this (in the context of what WILL HAPPEN instead of what we believe SHOULD happen) and to prepare accordingly. Let's not shoot the messenger (save your figurative bullets for the central bankers themselves).

  • GG

    Guillermo G.

    4 10 2016 14:21

    10       4

    Really establishment-like commentaries, nothing new under the sun. His solutions are pathetic.

  • JL

    John L.

    4 10 2016 12:49

    1       0

    Glad she is not my leader.
    John L
    Siri is fired

  • JL

    John L.

    4 10 2016 12:47

    0       0

    Play he's not my leader. John L