Portfolio Composition For Trumponomics – David Hay

Featuring David Hay

With the start of a New Year being an opportune time for market predictions, David Hay, CIO of Evergreen GaveKal, delivers a Think Piece for 2017, with his outlook for financial markets, amidst the arrival of Trumponomics. David breaks down the recent market activity from a portfolio composition standpoint, assessing valuations, hot spots and potential surprises for the year to come.

Published on
23 January, 2017
Topic
Credit Market, Energy Commodities, Sentiment
Duration
26 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Cash, Commodities
Rating
30

Comments

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    15 4 2017 00:49

    0       0

    Very good smart guy.
    I'd give him money to manage.....

  • JC

    John C.

    30 1 2017 11:51

    0       0

    very nice summary by David with a lot of food for thought. Long gold & bonds sounds about right now but we might have a bit of a 'blow off top' in equities in the interim that could hinder that trade for a month or so

  • DL

    Derek L.

    29 1 2017 00:51

    1       0

    People who don't like Trump like to compare his personality to Berlusconi. Totally different people and economies IMO.

  • CB

    Cliff B.

    26 1 2017 15:49

    1       0

    I always appreciate the videos with David Hay and agree with his investment style

  • DW

    Doug W.

    24 1 2017 22:44

    2       0

    I like the macro themes realvision guests provide. Also, It is nice to see David Hay discuss his thoughts more specifically. For example, discussing individual sectors and why he is either bullish or bearish.
    Please this info flowing

  • SB

    Sam B.

    24 1 2017 17:49

    2       2

    @ JOE C... not only that, but the man had the gall not to bail out the retail investors who bought MLPs in 2014! You'd figure Obama was the most laissez faire president since Grover Cleveland...

  • JC

    Joe C.

    24 1 2017 17:06

    2       0

    Love the gems in the comments. Obama caused the housing bubble to burst? Who knew?!

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    24 1 2017 12:22

    1       0

    Good interview, enjoyed very much.

  • MM

    Mark M.

    24 1 2017 06:41

    2       9

    "Throw in the head dress" ? Cheap shot. Guess he couldn't resist. I also like E. Warren but I guess that's just me. Not my cup of tea.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    24 1 2017 01:24

    4       2

    It is amazing how much consensus there is around strong dollar. I think Trump is already talking dollar down and he will talk it down more as time goes on. If that does not bring dollar down, he will install some dove at the Fed in Jan 2018. IMHO, strong dollar is not the dominant trade anymore.

  • js

    jacob s.

    24 1 2017 01:01

    7       1

    lmao throw in the head dress

  • an

    adam n.

    24 1 2017 00:12

    6       0

    I love hearing him talk. He's level headed... thank you

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    23 1 2017 23:44

    1       0

    Excellent interview. I'm not looking so much for trade ideas but rather getting a peak at their world view by borrowing their telescope. Interesting to see the parallels as one who lived through trickle down economics setting aside the minor things like interest rates and debt. ;-)

  • JS

    Jonathan S.

    23 1 2017 22:22

    1       10

    He's meandering from one macro factor to another without giving weight to what's important. I didn't get anything out of it helpful.

  • db

    don b.

    23 1 2017 22:05

    5       5

    He lost me at Elizabeth Warren. Barry has provided these guys risk free speculation for 8 years no surprise they hate Donald Trump. #FrontRunningTheFed

  • SS

    Sam S.

    23 1 2017 19:02

    10       24

    Started out sounding like Trump caused or will cause all the problems. The markets tanked in Sept/Oct 2008 when the powers to be knew Obummer would be elected. It's been one huge mess after another and that's confirmed with Trump being elected against all odds, same with Brexit. I've listened to dozens of RV experts and I think we have a pretty good idea how and why all the crap unfolded and carried the day. Way too many "I think" and "maybe's" Mr. Hay. Trump won't be perfect but his legacy is ALL this man need to complete for the future. He has pretty much put together just about everything else in his life and his family. Speculating Yellen will do something devious before leaving office, really? She worked as did Bernanke, for a very devious administration, in my humble opinion. Wait---same opinion that got Trump elected. I've never understood why anyone in power would leave a crap legacy for their family and the world, unless they profit from it. Myself, like you, lost money in the MLP's and the previous administration did nothing to help or protect investors, but they could have. It was pay to play all the way and the hell with everyone else. Hope and confidence is the now the name of the game.
    I'm just say. I still like listening to your thoughts and ideas. Thx.

  • BH

    Brent H.

    23 1 2017 17:26

    5       0

    I really enjoyed his presentation.lots of valuable insight. Nicely done….

  • NH

    Neil H.

    23 1 2017 17:25

    14       1

    David's comments are always well thought out. Thanks for bringing him back.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    23 1 2017 17:13

    8       0

    Invaluable insights from David as always. Good to hear his optimistic outlook for small businesses under Trumponomics, but just as importantly his more sobering comparisons with some people's expectations on this being Reaganomics II, but likely more akin to Berlussconi II . I think his take on the likely behaviour of Yellen and the (wimpy) Fed with interest rates is an interesting one and I suspect the new Trump administration would welcome any recession and market setback (which they must know is inevitable at current valuations) that such actions would likely trigger, coming sooner rather than later into its four year term so they can blame Obama's policymakers, and then try and kick on from the new lower market base. Exciting but risky times for investors and good to hear how David suggests playing it, including by watching closely the commitment of speculative investors.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    23 1 2017 17:05

    12       1

    Would find a quarterly market Think Piece by David Hay quite valuable. Can follow David Hay and his partners on twitter at Evergreen Gavekal and at Gavekal Capital
    Thank you David.

  • SB

    Sam B.

    23 1 2017 16:53

    12       0

    In total agreement with his Trump assessment and that the bearishness on Treasuries, at least near-term, is way overblown. With regard to oil output in the Permian, the fact that it's economically viable in the $40s is another reason why US supply will stay higher than most people think and therefore why prices probably can't go much above $50 on a sustained basis (at least until inventories are worked down to normal levels). While I think he gives a tad too much credence to OPEC actually cutting, I love "throwing in the head dress." Hope that meme gains traction...