Restaurant Sales Slowdown Signals US Recession

Published on
6 December, 2016
Recession, Micro, US Economy
33 minutes
Asset class

Restaurant Sales Slowdown Signals US Recession

Featuring Paul Westra

Restaurant analyst Paul Westra has been covering the sector for 20 years and has opened two New York City eateries in that time. With underlying restaurant sales seen as a lead indicator for an overall recession, Paul thinks the 2016 data is more scary than in 2000 or 2007. Elucidating current trends in the restaurant business, Paul outlines the pitfalls associated with investing $1 million plus in a new venture, as well as the chains best placed to shine in the current environment.

Published on
6 December, 2016
Recession, Micro, US Economy
33 minutes
Asset class


  • AM

    Alexander M.

    13 2 2017 08:50

    0       0

    Great insight. Would love to see an update of this end of Q1/Q2.

  • HY

    Hiroyuki Y.

    23 1 2017 05:07

    0       0

    Great commentary from Paul Westra! It would be great to have him back to follow up later this year or early in 2018.

  • TM

    Todd M.

    6 1 2017 05:13

    0       0

    Flat out Excellent!

  • AW

    Anak W.

    2 1 2017 21:58

    0       0

    where can i get this data from? what is the name of the data? it's very interesting.

  • CB

    Chris B.

    21 12 2016 04:01

    2       0

    One question I would have loved to ask is, "what does he attribute this restaurant recession to ?" Is there anything structurally changing or from consumer behavior that is driving this vs prior restaurant recession periods? I don't follow the space so maybe a dumb question, but are supermarkets or food delivery services (Amazon Fresh etc), or anyone else taking share? I'm just looking for anything that could cause a divergence between the view that a restaurant recession will happen without a broader recession.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    15 12 2016 17:44

    1       0

    really professional analysis! Excellent

  • WM

    Will M.

    11 12 2016 19:50

    1       0

    Absolutely superb. A hugely believable and knowledgable niche player. Per the multiple comments below; more of this style of discussion would be great. Superb.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    11 12 2016 18:32

    1       0

    When was this interview filmed?

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    10 12 2016 16:20

    1       1

    Great video. Is any of his research available in the internet?

  • JF

    John F.

    10 12 2016 00:42

    6       0

    Having family in restaurant business, I always said: The lady's room must look like the Taj Mahal because women determine where the family dines. And, that feature plays significantly in their decision. I wish architects would wake up and realize that.

  • PS

    Paul S.

    9 12 2016 09:12

    2       0

    So refreshing to hear a sell side guy who has been through cycles and understands the drivers behind the numbers he puts in his model. Top shelf

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    9 12 2016 02:04

    3       0

    You have to love Paul Westra, he covers 21 stocks and has just 2 rated 'buy' and 5 rated 'sell', that's really unusual. I wholeheartedly agree that this was a surprisingly enjoyable, informative and actionable piece.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    9 12 2016 02:00

    3       0

    Excellent esoteric one RV. I'll watch every "precursor" one of these you can find Milton. Thanks for giving us a 5 yard head start in the upcoming 100 yd dash.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    8 12 2016 23:41

    3       0

    Fantastic. Please can we have more like this.

  • BG

    Balraj G.

    8 12 2016 15:49

    5       0

    This is what RV is about! A lot more of this style videos please. So many trade ideas and other ways to make money from this video.

  • jd

    john d.

    8 12 2016 07:20

    3       0

    Outstanding. Being from NZ I have never heard of "Dave and Busters". I look up the ticker 'PLAY' and it's up c. 19% TODAY !!!! Holy shit. He knows his stuff. Once again; great stuff guys. Cheers John.

  • SP

    Steve P.

    8 12 2016 07:17

    7       0

    One of RV's best 'up there' interviews. By far the most surprising aspect of the presentation was the fact that restaurant data analysis seems to bes such an accurate Lead Indicator. Stands to reason when it's drawn to our attention but who would have thought.... And Lead Indicators are investor gems. This indicator along with a couple of other favourites are now alerting us to the narrowing of the ' window of escape' from equity markets before the next potential big draw down.
    RV you have done it again. Superb!!

  • CG

    Chuck G.

    7 12 2016 21:02

    6       0

    Westra is a great analyst. I remember reading his research about restaurants improving in early '03.... He was spot-on then, too

  • RB

    Rob B.

    7 12 2016 20:03

    6       0

    Love to hear an expert go deep in an industry. For my relevant use, the restaurant indicator to overall economy is really interesting. Seems to correlate with some other macro indicators, but a lot of conflicting info. We will know by Q2 2017

  • HW

    Harold W.

    7 12 2016 15:15

    4       0

    Did not think I would have any interest. But that was a wow! Fascinating and very informative.

  • AH

    Aaron H.

    7 12 2016 14:16

    5       0

    Good interview, great insights. Loved the deep dive into the sector. Captivating speaker. I felt his passion for the subject matter.

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    7 12 2016 13:11

    4       0

    Loved the industry specific interview section. And this aligns well with RVTV core philosophy of democratization of finance, wherein a retail investor who pays attention can begin to dig into deeper fundamentals. How he dissected unit economics , a key driver , was amazing, and extremely valuable.

    Next on the interviewing list should be luxury brands analyst -

  • sm

    stephen m.

    7 12 2016 11:48

    6       0

    great....... please bring more sector analysts very informative

  • GT

    Graham T.

    7 12 2016 09:17

    3       0

    Now that is what I call timing. Great call.

  • SR

    Sean R.

    7 12 2016 08:59

    3       0

    That was superb. The only I knew about the restaurant industry was how to stuff my face. This interview was chock full of golden nuggets. And I like how he spoke quickly and with passion. It really grabs your attention and keeps it.

  • SJ

    Steven J.

    7 12 2016 05:55

    4       0

    Brilliant - loved the industry specific analysis. Great presentation skills - well spoken, informative, sufficient detail to support his analysis; conclusions were well thought out. Lets have more industry specific presentations. Bravo RTV!

  • RR

    Raghu R.

    7 12 2016 05:44

    3       0

    This is an excellent video. I liked it both for the content and for Paul's tone and presentation style. I hope there will be more industry specific interviews like this video.

  • NN

    Nicholas N.

    7 12 2016 05:32

    6       0

    Really insightful on the specific characteristics of the restaurant industry. Is it possibly to get other Equity Research Analysts from all Industries/Sectors to share aswell?

  • RR

    Raghu R.

    7 12 2016 04:50

    0       4

    Profitable restaurants cater to more women than men? Weird. I always thought that women are bad tippers and they are overly price and value conscious of what they order.

  • DS

    David S.

    7 12 2016 04:15

    9       0

    Highest ratio of insights per minute of any Real Vision video I've watched, which is saying a lot since all have been insightful and I've watched nearly all that have been released thus far. Well done

  • AD

    Anthony D.

    7 12 2016 04:08

    3       0

    Extraordinary. I never would have thought a summary of the workings of the restaurant industry would be so enlightening.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    7 12 2016 02:45

    3       0

    Excellent interview, bright light shinning on my ignorance which is always a good thing.

  • AG

    Alex G.

    7 12 2016 00:46

    3       1

    I was once told ... resultants are money pints . This confirmed that

  • JC

    John C.

    6 12 2016 22:23

    8       0

    Excellent video. I learned a lot about the restaurant space I never knew even though I've been eating out for 20+ years and worked in them :) In particular I liked how he put it all together with Chipotle/Panera and the equity valuation

  • SS

    Sam S.

    6 12 2016 21:51

    21       0

    More talks like this one but about other industries. Hold the mayo.

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    6 12 2016 21:05

    7       0

    I thought to myself… why do I want to watch a presentation on restaurants. It turns out that I loved this presentation it was really interesting.

  • CL

    Charles L.

    6 12 2016 20:12

    9       0

    Great! And I concur with Graham T. and Kevin G.: Let's have some more of this kind of industry by industry analysis WITH concrete advice as to where they are headed.

  • DH

    Donald H.

    6 12 2016 19:55

    16       0

    I cover consumer (and restaurant) stocks for a living and that was fantastic. Great insight into how he thinks about restaurants conceptually and over their life cycle as well as some good short picks. Also enjoyed the bit about the 3 characteristics he looks for in a winning restaurant stock.

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    6 12 2016 19:17

    10       0

    One of the best to date. I learnt a lot and importantly how to think about the sector from a true veteran. Well done

  • BK

    Brian K.

    6 12 2016 18:30

    35       0

    Outstanding. Particularly liked Paul's frameworks for analyzing the restaurant space - that's the kind of stuff that takes years to learn, all communicated in a concise 30 minutes. Hope to see more of this type of interview on RVTV.

  • KG

    Kevin G.

    6 12 2016 18:00

    13       0

    Really great video! It would be interesting to see similar analysis of other industries as well

  • CC

    Charnes C.

    6 12 2016 16:38

    8       0

    Wow...great data, correlation and historical contexts.

  • DK

    Damian K.

    6 12 2016 15:32

    5       0

    Great insights

  • GT

    Graham T.

    6 12 2016 15:09

    24       0

    Now that is worth watching again just to get your head around the 2 dozen calls he is making in a 30 minute spot. I just wish I had seen some data to put it into context. Excellent.