Steve Ricchiuto – Think Piece

Featuring Steve Ricchiuto

Steve Ricchiuto, US Economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., leads us on a Think Piece on the implications of a global shift to excess supply, and the imbalances created when the global economy fights deflation with models based on secular inflation.

Published on
1 March, 2016
Topic
Macro, US Economy, Monetary policy
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
30

Comments

  • AG

    Alex G.

    9 5 2016 01:20

    2       0

    watched this video four or five times now . Very thought provoking

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    18 3 2016 00:37

    0       0

    His thesis primarily rested on dollar weakness , and essentially that is playing out. And interestingly that's what the rest of the world wanted.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    17 3 2016 21:57

    0       0

    Interesting point I have never heard before; once a Country realizes they are in a full fledged deflation the currency quits going down and there is no need for flight to another currency.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    14 3 2016 11:29

    0       0

    Disagree on why Fed raised rates. They want / need inflation, so wouldn't make sense to say eco = too strong. They raised in order to have room to lower if need be.

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    13 3 2016 19:14

    0       0

    Re-watched this video after the EUR/USD reaction to the ECB, which he theorized. So if the FED is Hawkish or raises rates and the $ goes down, what he theorized occurs. So do you act on his suggestio?

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    13 3 2016 06:44

    1       1

    Educational. Would like a transcript of all interviews. I am tired of taking notes on every presentation.

  • YO

    Yousef O.

    11 3 2016 05:02

    0       0

    Rewatching this today as the action in EUR/USD had me thinking of this piece. Very prescient and interesting analysis

  • IF

    Ian F.

    10 3 2016 14:48

    2       0

    Look at the Euro move after the ECB announcement today! Hello deflation. Steve you madman, you were spot on!

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    9 3 2016 20:20

    0       0

    Econ 404. I need a cheat sheet to follow these guys sometimes. Up is Down and weak is strong.?? And at the very end there, transition to ...what is completed? Yes, he mentioned it earlier, but 'que'?

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    7 3 2016 05:54

    2       1

    Now let's see who does Steve work for? My mouth dropped wide open several times. Examples: No contagion from European banks. Aha. Strong corporate, bank and household balance sheets, aha. Ha, ha, ha

  • CD

    Charles D.

    6 3 2016 15:00

    3       0

    Excellent piece...but troubling...a bit too smug...institutions have vetted all of their risk contingencies ?
    Nobody should have any real opinion on what could happen next..Keep your antennas up.

  • ca

    cyavash a.

    6 3 2016 14:55

    3       0

    The annual price of RV is alone worth it to watch this interview once. That you get to watch it again is priceless.

  • SP

    Steve P.

    6 3 2016 00:18

    4       0

    One of RV's best interviews. Money flows drive currencies therefore indicate global investment mindsets. He explained this very clearly. An investment goldmine!!

  • AE

    Alex E.

    6 3 2016 00:15

    1       0

    So commodities in credit hell, now fixed income being shoe-horned into credit hell, what about over-regulation? The unseen Black Swan going to squeeze all banks into none existence...look out below!!

  • IZ

    Ileana Z.

    5 3 2016 19:19

    3       0

    Excellent. A little bit over my head on the currency trade points. Can RV do some type of Currency 101 video? PLEASE? In the current environment we need to understand FOREX!!!!!

  • DS

    Dan S.

    4 3 2016 14:47

    0       0

    Love the racing analogy. Senna!

  • mg

    mark g.

    3 3 2016 18:58

    7       0

    absolutely loved this. a very original line of thinking. it challenged me to envision an alternative path, regardless of how right or wrong he is. this is precisely what RV is all about. thank you

  • JG

    Jonathan G.

    3 3 2016 17:38

    7       0

    Heavy in depth stuff... I might have understood a 40%....!i will need to watch it again 4 or 5 times!!

  • VK

    Vinay K.

    3 3 2016 04:02

    5       0

    energy isn't in credit hell?

  • CH

    Colin H.

    2 3 2016 19:44

    3       0

    I thoroughly enjoyed that

  • DS

    DAVID S.

    2 3 2016 13:55

    6       0

    Great Macro intermarket analysis I love Steve's game plan based on FX. Raoul views are not too different , they are just at 1 step below conditions . What a joy to get idea-generationally inspired:)

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    2 3 2016 06:11

    2       0

    Smart guy, snappy delivery. But isn't he trapped in a box of Equities or Bonds?
    What if the answer is 'neither'? Maybe the US 10 yr is a trading buy, but 1.7% is not an attractive coupon!

  • SD

    Sebastien D.

    2 3 2016 06:03

    11       0

    RV, it would be interesting to have regular confrontations (like Raoul/Ken) in addition to think pieces. We get divergent views with convincing thesis and would be nice & unique to see how it resolves

  • ss

    sid s.

    2 3 2016 02:35

    3       0

    Very timely..

  • MR

    Marko R.

    2 3 2016 00:31

    9       0

    Got me thinking a bit different so loved it!!

  • db

    don b.

    2 3 2016 00:01

    2       0

    Stunning to listen to 35 minutes with no mention of Au or Ag. May you live in interesting times.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    1 3 2016 23:42

    17       0

    This guy makes an awful lot of "definitive" statements about things whose answers can't possibly be determined now (eg, US banks "know" all their risks from European bank problems, really???)..

  • SS

    Scuba S.

    1 3 2016 23:14

    2       0

    Fantastic. Concise if/then w/r to currencies and USD. For those looking here is one of his early truth bombs on CNBC from last year. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/man-will-never-be-invited-

  • RM

    Robert M.

    1 3 2016 22:48

    0       0

    Was it war or the bretton woods system that got us out of the war?

  • IF

    Ian F.

    1 3 2016 21:51

    11       1

    This guy straight up blew the heads off everyone on RV's strong dollar thesis. Bravo good sir.

  • AN

    Adam N.

    1 3 2016 20:32

    5       0

    Great Think Piece as it challenges my view about the global economy and particularly FX. Next few weeks should set the tone for the rest of Year given 3 CB meetings. Raoul vs Steve :)

  • CE

    Christopher E.

    1 3 2016 19:08

    7       0

    Well done RVTV in persuading Mr Ricchiuto to give us half-an-hour's worth of crystal clear analysis. Great if he could feature as a regular commentator too.

  • SO

    Steve O.

    1 3 2016 18:11

    2       0

    I was excited to see this interview on the schedule and was not disappointed. It's always fun to see Steve disrupt CNBC for a few minutes but a half hour of clear thought is appreciated.

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    1 3 2016 16:56

    36       0

    Thank you for getting some diversity of opinion. Better way to frame viewpoints and avoid confirmation bias.

  • FS

    Fred S.

    1 3 2016 15:06

    3       0

    Great piece, but we actually do know how to deal with deflation. See Jim Grant's "The Recession that Cured Itself".. Excess Demand? Look at Say's Law - demand is driven by production..

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    1 3 2016 14:42

    11       0

    As always Steve is clear, concise, and compelling.

  • RF

    Richard F.

    1 3 2016 14:20

    7       0

    WOW What a refreshing and clear spoken perspective. This is probably THE interview that merges a lot of conflicting views in the market and the currency/$ positions. Raoul does view of $ change w PPP

  • NF

    Nico F.

    1 3 2016 14:18

    10       0

    Really interesting. This one got me thinking.