Understand Warnings to Stop Catastrophes

Featuring R.P. Eddy

R.P. Eddy is a former senior US diplomat and intelligence and security expert and he wants to know why every major global catastrophe has not only been predictable and proven by data, but the person sounding the warning has been ignored. As the global risk barometer brings potential flashpoints at every turn, with huge risks from Trump’s presidency and North Korea, R.P. brings the experiences from the book, he co-wrote with Richard Clarke, to stop catastrophes with Cassandras. Filmed on June 29, 2017, in New York.

Published on
11 July, 2017
Topic
Technology, Geopolitics, Global Outlook
Duration
40 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
199

Comments

  • MA

    Mark A.

    26 11 2017 18:51

    0       0

    What an interesting talk. One of the reasons that folks "have had enough of experts" as a Brexit politician recently said is that they are expected to get everything right. Miss one thing and every expert is useless. Sure sucking up and analysing Cassandra theories would be resource intensive for sure, but a superintelligence set up that could identify significant problems perhaps makes that reality. Restoring faith in data and science I think is a crucial lever to pull. That's how substantial new funds got going too. Could be extremely powerful.

    Also interesting to see the gentlemen's opinion on Trump has shifted from his talk just6 after the election-Much more cautious.

  • TS

    Timothy S.

    14 9 2017 02:09

    0       0

    There is order in the universe. We get sloppy and disaster strikes. Only those who look for it will see it.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    10 8 2017 19:43

    1       0

    Arrogant. "No one knows anything but us, and we are trying to get the government to know what might happen with nuclear war!" Wow, arrogance, we have been in a nuclear world since 1946. Everyone knows what the potential disaster is.

    • MA

      Mark A.

      26 11 2017 18:42

      0       0

      Sid - He is a former NSA. That sort of his job.

  • BF

    Brooks F.

    30 7 2017 19:11

    2       2

    Part of what's wrong with America, this guy
    is sooo deep state, while middle class gets screwed and lied too we have a supporter of those policies. Good Grief

  • B

    Bojo .

    25 7 2017 15:23

    0       1

    The biggest threat to the world is the US, because of globalists like this... saving the world with their love bombs.

  • MS

    Mark S.

    19 7 2017 18:53

    3       0

    When I saw 100 comments I knew immediately that he would be talking about either climate change or Trump.

  • JM

    Justin M.

    19 7 2017 17:57

    3       0

    Wow. I'm surprised this isn't a more popular video. I think this thesis is very interesting. Sure, there are potential selection issues and executing on a flood of incoming Cassandra theories would be resource intensive for sure, but a framework that could pro-actively indentify major problems by tapping into a network of highly specialized experts who simply lack the voice to spread their findings to a wider audience; could be extremely powerful.

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:48

      0       0

      THANKS! I LIKE THE WAY YOU LOOK AT IT.

  • RK

    Ralph K.

    18 7 2017 13:05

    0       4

    During the last interglacial, sea level rose to a level 22 ft. higher than today, marked by a stranded beach at Ingleside, TX with charcoal dated at 104,000 years bp. So far the model predictions have been wrong, but clearly a significant sea level rise is possible even without human intervention.

  • JT

    Jayne T.

    17 7 2017 17:35

    2       1

    Interesting and thought provoking. Nnothing actionable, but certainly not deserving of the many derisive comments set forth.

  • JD

    Jakk D.

    17 7 2017 15:02

    0       0

    So go short island property, and solar panels. Get long, air masks, and backpacks. Or AI will solve all of that first, then kill us. Got it.

  • AF

    Alex F.

    17 7 2017 07:11

    0       0

    Whenever you listen to a conspiracy theorist or doomsday sayer, you never really know - is he the one in a thousand true Cassandra or is he part of the 999 just selling stuff? It's a bit like knowing was it a good time to buy property - you'll only know years later, looking back in hindsight..

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:49

      0       0

      THATS THE CONVENTIONAL VIEW. OUR BOOK OFFERS A NEW MODEL. CHECK IT OUT.

  • HK

    H K.

    17 7 2017 00:53

    0       6

    Sorry, watched for 2 minutes then laughed...next video.

  • jd

    john d.

    16 7 2017 20:14

    16       1

    Wow ... reading through the many posts to this interview, the community is exhibiting many of the behaviours talked about by the Presenter. Regardless of anyone's view as to whether the Presenter is a 'snake-oil salesman' or not, the posts certainly lend credibility to his position that people with a warning are shouted down. As per RP, the world works in probabilities and possibilities. You should at least listen.

    Cheers
    John

  • DP

    David P.

    16 7 2017 14:43

    1       7

    This man is a salesman. He sells wars for the glory of "Pax" Americana.

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:51

      2       0

      Hi, R.P. Eddy here. I've actually negotiated multiple peace treaties and never agitated for any war except V. AQ / ISIS
      I am sorry you weren't able to absorb this.

  • mb

    michael b.

    16 7 2017 04:16

    1       1

    With over 500 atmospheric nuclear bombs exploded how come we haven't had a "nuclear winter"?

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 07:48

      1       0

      Just wait. It depends on the amount of particulate matter dispersed in the atmosphere. It has happened before with volcanic eruptions. The next one will probably be man made. DLS

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:52

      0       0

      David is right. It's not the BOMB it's the massive resultant fire and super heated column bringing particulate matter to the upper atmospheres.

  • GH

    Gloria H.

    15 7 2017 20:14

    1       0

    Thought-provoking, but I could do without the gratuitous diss-ing of liberal arts majors. And I do think Mr. Eddy himself manifests some of the Cassandra personality characteristics. :-) A glorified book pitch that nonetheless had some good information.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    15 7 2017 16:57

    2       0

    Picking Casandras in hindsight is still hindsight. It is classic data mining, do report the wrong Casandras and you will see that 99% (???) of them are wrong with their predictions. Only a snake oil seller sells complex (complexity sells) and pessimist (pessimism sells) hindsight science. Read Taleb and you know this is snake oil selling at its best!

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 07:50

      2       0

      Mr. Taleb may also be correct, but why not try to see if we can rationally uncover some others. DLS

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    15 7 2017 16:41

    0       7

    We are underestimating Trump big time all the way... and it is going on and going on and going on. Pessimist views on everything everywhere while the sp500 just made an all time high. Tech revolution is a good thing not a bad thing! Guys, we are living through a high on pessimism in a 20 Year Cycle, the ones who see this will make a ton of money!

    • AC

      Andy C.

      21 8 2017 05:21

      0       0

      Interesting... what do you mean by we are underestimating Trump?

    • AC

      Andy C.

      21 8 2017 05:21

      0       0

      Interesting... what do you mean by we are underestimating Trump?

  • RO

    Robert O.

    15 7 2017 04:20

    3       2

    Cassandra recommendation: Ron Paul. Check out all the youtube videos of him talking to an empty congress about something that was about to happen or just read his little book: Gold, peace and prosperity.
    Second observation: Nicola Tesla was the greatest inventor - scientist of all time. Maybe a little crazy too.
    Third observation: Central planning by the US government may not work out any better than it has in the many failed states that have tried it before.

  • WK

    William K.

    14 7 2017 21:48

    0       2

    Last 5 mins of vid - Merideth Whitney was a self-promoter who used hyperbole to build a brand. She 'gathered facts first before distorting them'. Sucker

  • WK

    William K.

    14 7 2017 21:31

    7       0

    There is value in this interview if one can focus on the message and not the messenger's style. Would be more credible w/o shameless plug for the book. I am surprised by the number of thumbs down - ma

  • WM

    William M.

    14 7 2017 20:23

    4       6

    One of the very few RVT videos for me to have given a thumbs down. R P Eddy may be a highly confident speaker and I did agree with some of his arguments. However, he just comes across as a bit of an over confident Zealot. Now as regards Climate Change. I am not a "deny-er", why Earths climate has always "changed" and it has in the past changed quite quickly according to the many many charts you can find easily on the net. I do feel any chart that looks at the last few hundred years cannot be viewed objectively without consider the past few million years and the planet has been around for much longer than that of course. Global "Warming" is almost a meaningless term to me. The earth has clearly been warmer in recent human past (e.g. the Roman Warm period). The Earth has clearly been colder, and became colder quite quickly (e.g. the Little Ice Age). To those spouting on about rising sea levelers engulfing our cities sooner rather than later, I have one thing to say ....Greenland". Why the hell do you think it was called "Green"-Land. Why were the Vikings able to live there for generations and tend flocks of sheep? Because it was a temperate climate!!!!! I don't recall evidence of European coastal cities (e.g. London) being flooded during that period? Yet it is not even remotely green today. Greenland folks....evidence that Global warming and rapidly sea level concerns are overcooked.

    • AH

      Andreas H.

      15 7 2017 16:23

      0       0

      Thank you for your post, I do think in the same direction!

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 08:01

      1       3

      Argument does not address the science of global warming. However, even if you disagree with global warming, do you think that dumping thousands of tons of carbon dioxide and other noxious gases in the atmosphere is beneficial? This is real regardless of the number of people who do not believe. As Trump rejoins the world on climate change will all his followers follow him? DLS

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:55

      0       0

      William M, I appreciate you taking the time to watch and respond. We need more thoughtful feedback in this complex world!

  • IF

    Ian F.

    14 7 2017 19:54

    5       8

    This guy is textbook establishment. I love his contempt for Trump. It means they are frightened.

  • VP

    Victor P.

    14 7 2017 11:30

    4       3

    If this is the quality of the national security advisors we are in a grave danger.

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    14 7 2017 03:40

    2       2

    A wasted presentation!
    R.P. Eddy has not correctly identified the problem and, as such, that makes his solution equally useless. The problem isn't that we aren't able to correctly identify plausible predictions of disasters...the problem that, even when the truth is staring them in the face, most people BELIEVE EXACTLY (AND ONLY) WHAT THEY WANT TO BELIEVE. It is only when reality becomes inescapable that people (in general) are willing to face what they don't want to see. It's easy (after the fact) to blame the "incompetent dumbies" in charge when, in reality, this is a characteristic the goes to the very heart of an entitled and self indulgent American society.

    • GG

      Gerald G.

      14 7 2017 03:50

      5       0

      Ps. People like Jim Cramer and the rest of the CNBC cadre eat people like Merideth Whitney for lunch and... what for that matter, ask yourself what happened to patriots who went public and questioned the premise of "weapons of mass destruction" as justification for the invasion of Iraq? R.P. should write a book about how to recognize the difference between truth and what you WANT to believe is truth. THEN maybe he would have something worth talking about.

    • GG

      Gerald G.

      14 7 2017 04:35

      2       0

      I should note that I DO realize that the Iraq war wouldn't properly be considered a bonafide (and predicted) "catastrophe" by most Americans... since, lets face it, it was "only" a few hundred thousand innocent foreign civilians that lost their lives.

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:57

      1       0

      Gerald, THAT IS THE BOOK! It is about our biases and why we are blind to truth. Read it and let me know if we aren't in violent agreement!

  • GF

    Guillaume F.

    14 7 2017 01:30

    1       3

    This guy should google "survival bias" and "argument from authority"...

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:57

      1       0

      Biases are big part of what we discuss in the book

  • SS

    Sam S.

    13 7 2017 19:56

    4       1

    My reply to David S. on July 11th. ------Marty Armstrong might have something to say about your reply. According to sources, not proven to me, 31,000 scientists signed. I did watch a documentary years ago with NASA scientists watching asteroids and the fluctuation of the suns energy and they clearly made the same comments. Pollution and the destruction of nature is a serious major problem. Obama tried to pass an executive order or law making it a crime to challenge global warming-----it's a huge taxation scheme. Those benefiting fly around in their jets but that's different----or is it? Antarctica is said to be at it's largest solid ice size ever recorded as the magnetic fields have been shifting direction and cycle. One volcano eruption can impact the global warming recordings----can't be denied. I don't smoke and your analogy is way off to this conversation and your video. However, I will be following your Cassandra and you have a lot of great info and ideas to offer.

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 08:07

      0       0

      Many natural events have and will cause major climate differences. The only thing we can control now is what we are doing to the atmosphere. DLS

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    13 7 2017 17:51

    3       0

    A “Cassandra” predicting these huge astronomical events in history is an extremely interesting idea, but isn’t there two sides to this coin? With one with some seriously dangerous implications and room for drastically different interpretations.

    Think of his mentioning of his Hitler and Nazism example. Sure some “Casandra’s” could have predicted this monstrous uprise/movement as he mentions, but can’t you make the argument that the followers of this movement bought into Hitler’s message and even saw Hitler himself as a “Cassandra” in a way? In hindsight, it’s easy to see Hitler as crazy, but if you were to rewind time, I think you could argue some of Hitler’s crazy predictions fall under some “Cassandra”- like characteristics if you didn’t have the hindsight going for you.

    Consider Jim Jones and Jonestown or even David Koresh and Waco. If you were to interview the followers of these guys, I can assure you they would describe “Cassandra” like predictions of events they bought into. Maybe Jones and Koresh were “Cassandras” that were just better at pitching their ideas/credibility and collecting followers/believers in their predictions than other “Cassandras”.

    Psychology is a powerful thing – and unfortunately the followers of these crazy “Cassandra’s” didn’t know the predictions were a sham until they never happen…or worse…

    Not that there aren’t legitimate "Cassandras" out there, but this other side of the coin can be interesting worth chewing on..

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 08:12

      0       0

      Psychology is powerful, but in each of your instances the means justified the ends. It is a long and slippery slope. DLS

  • MH

    Martin H.

    13 7 2017 16:53

    5       4

    This is at least the second time (Fed Up) RV allows someone to come in and promote their work without shame. I don't think RV should allow this without asking them critical questions about the content. I know the regular interviews rarely feature any push back either, but I think it's less of a problem when you are selling an idea instead of a book.

    • FB

      Federico B.

      17 7 2017 09:29

      0       3

      Exactly

  • GF

    George F.

    13 7 2017 15:36

    4       2

    "Largest iceberg in the history of civilization." @1:25 I really doubt there is any way to demonstrate that. According to Wikipedia B-15, year 2000, is still the record holder. I doubt that earlier than mid-1900s was aerial photography good enough to seriously measure icebergs. It is also not clear to me why global warming would increase the size of icebergs, I could see warming shrinking them. No expert, but it seems that example needs more explanation. BTW, was population theorist Paul Ehrlich a Cassandra or a fraud?

    • RE

      R.P. E.

      25 7 2017 14:58

      2       0

      Ehrlich was a fraud. He didn't meet the Cassandra Coefficent

  • JC

    Jan C.

    13 7 2017 14:41

    9       0

    N N Taleb would not only be a great interview but if he could be turned into an interviewer. What a great addition to an already impressive group.

  • GB

    Gerrit B.

    13 7 2017 12:39

    19       0

    I'd be very interested to watch an interview with Nassim Taleb about dealing with randomness, facing an unknown future and the fragility of the financial system. Could he be invited to RV?

  • JM

    James M.

    13 7 2017 11:56

    7       0

    I can understand the disdain but I thought it was an interesting piece. Worthwhile.

  • RS

    Rohinee S.

    13 7 2017 05:42

    5       2

    a little disappointed with this video - I cant see all sides of the story here....just "his view" no counter view or even questioning of the broad thesis ... sadly this one is just adding to the noise.

  • RC

    Ryan C.

    13 7 2017 04:29

    3       0

    R.P. is extremely intelligent and thoughtful, and I enjoy hearing his thoughts and perspectives. However, I feel like it is common knowledge that people who are inquisitive, data driven, unemotional and ask better questions are always a step ahead of everyone else in spotting a crisis. Realizing this does not allow one to create a "proprietary technology".

    The financial crisis was littered with people who saw a disaster coming, and quite a few who had access to capital made fortunes from it. It was just that many who were benefited from the existing system continuing ignored all the warnings. History will always be full of people who forewarn major issues and will be ignored, but it's nice to know that some of the top thinkers in Washington are (finally) catching on to this. But this is certainly not a new invention, and most RV subscribers already know this.

    • JM

      James M.

      13 7 2017 11:57

      0       0

      Wait for the ICO - easy silly money ;-)

  • ZH

    Zack H.

    13 7 2017 00:35

    2       0

    Add Jim Rickards to the Cassandra list

  • PD

    Peter D.

    12 7 2017 22:22

    21       3

    North Korea is a threat?

    America has launched military strikes against seven countries since the start of the year (Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Libya) and he cannot figure out why North Korea wants nuclear weapons?

    As if that weren't enough (until recently) America has been the only country that has not renounced first use of nuclear strikes.

    Mr. Eddy's business is fostering fear, and then charging exorbitant fees for solving non-existant problems.

    A great Beltway Guy.

    • RM

      Robert M.

      13 7 2017 02:48

      5       3

      Equating those countries with NK isn't valid given NK's military prowess and society wide willingness to 'dance' (from 50 years of society wide paranoid and vengeful brain washing).
      One thing I do admire about the US is their willingness to call BS and step into a fight. It is part of the truth too. As are some fears. Some of them are real. I also agree that this has turned into a nasty imperialism many times which needs stopping.
      Still, I look forward to you explaining just why the fear of NK isn't real (beyond false analogies). Why the fear of what further capacities this isolated and twisted society will develop in a few short years isn't real.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    12 7 2017 21:57

    8       0

    I would nominate the great Mr. Chris Powell of GATA. http://www.gata.org/node/17081
    Follow the FIAT trading.......find massive global manipulation -but no MSM reporting or hard question asking only crickets.....

  • MS

    Matthew S.

    12 7 2017 21:39

    23       17

    I am VERY disappointed in RV for airing this!!! I don't subscribe to RV for deep state/globalist propaganda. I can watch Fox News or MSNBC for that. Please, no more content like this.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 03:13

      6       11

      agreed -such an odd choice of guest - must be one of their mates getting free book promotion air time at our expense. Bad choice RV.

    • DS

      David S.

      13 7 2017 16:19

      0       0

      Watch his earlier interview after the Trump election and you may get a different point of view. DLS

  • AB

    AJ B.

    12 7 2017 21:16

    16       8

    Swamp thing showing his scales. Indicative of why we need to drain the swamp.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    12 7 2017 20:56

    3       8

    A cassandra on top of being a nihilist, this alarmist would have us believe that the end of the world is upon us and that politicians can save us! Why doesn't he get the cassandra for the Acrtic ice sheet melting to join the thermo nuclear cassandra. The dust in the atmosphere from the nuclear bombs will cool the planet enough so that the ice caps won't melt. Enough already.

    • DS

      David S.

      12 7 2017 21:09

      4       0

      He cannot be a nihilist if he believes that we can fix something. DLS

  • TE

    Tito E.

    12 7 2017 20:41

    18       7

    This odious overconfident yank sums up so much of what is wrong right now

    • TE

      Tito E.

      12 7 2017 20:41

      9       7

      and epitomises it!

    • DS

      David S.

      12 7 2017 21:05

      5       1

      We need valid research and sources to counteract all the people that live in echo chambers. In the 30s it was self evident to my Aunts and Uncles that smoking caused lung cancer. We, however, had to go through years of proving it before many people decided that the information was overwhelming and they should stop smoking. DLS

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 03:12

      1       3

      are you supporting the climate change hoax, DLS? ;)

  • dj

    daniel j.

    12 7 2017 20:14

    12       4

    Sounds like a huge commercial, all of it, for hus book

  • NB

    Norbert B.

    12 7 2017 19:16

    17       7

    I have to agree with some of the comments here. Probably one of the worst interviews here on RV. Climate Change? Climate is not a constant, it always has been changing. We actually life in one of the cooler periods now. Do your own research. Satellite Data and Climate Models don't correspond.
    Refugee Crisis created by ISIS? Who created ISIS in the first place?
    This interview is just an ill-placed book promotion.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 03:11

      2       2

      hear, hear...

    • DP

      David P.

      16 7 2017 14:49

      0       0

      Good to have a PHD on climate models on RV to balance the propaganda of the physicists the IPCC. BEWARE OF DEEP SCIENCE! Not willing to defend the war salesman in the video thought.

  • JG

    James G.

    12 7 2017 18:50

    4       2

    Spoken like a true globalist...it is my personal belief that we are a bit to in debited to play world police man any longer.

  • SW

    Scott W.

    12 7 2017 18:47

    2       0

    So in one hundred years, the US wouldn't be able to wall-off NYC, Miami and Boston Dutch-style? Couldn't the dazzling super AI tell us how to do that?

  • TL

    Tianyun L.

    12 7 2017 18:34

    4       6

    Absolutely bullshit about the accelerating technological revolution. Read some Peter Thiel.

  • GM

    Greg M.

    12 7 2017 18:30

    11       3

    I would love to see him debate Scott Horton or Eric Margolis on foreign policy. He is a typical DC Neocon bureaucrat.

    Hey R.P. - since North Korea is so dangerous. (N.B. They can barely feed their own people) How about you send your son or daughter over there? Are you will to risk life and limb yourself to secure America hegemony? My generation continues to bleed in Iraq and Afghanistan. What have you done? Grab a rifle and get your hands dirty. Its easy to pontificate with two oceans protecting you.

    • RM

      Robert M.

      12 7 2017 22:59

      1       1

      You think NK is fine?
      Three generations of clearly unstable and dangerous despots have been allowed to grow an isolated, twisted society and an effective nuclear arsenal which will soon be able to reach the US, across one of those oceans.
      Perhaps the thinking is that the US will always be able to remain one step ahead in missile defense at least for long enough until the regime collapses. It's risky either way - attack or wait, has been for decades.

    • GM

      Greg M.

      13 7 2017 16:04

      1       0

      That is not my argument - The USA needs to say to China, Japan and South Korea - Your problem Goodbye. End the Korean War and come home. Stop meddling in other people's business. War is not an option, the you cannot attack North Korea and not expect massive damage.

      Kim Jong Eun is or wants to acquire nuclear weapons because of what the USA has done to Libya or Iraq. I believe that the regime is nearing the end (hopefully) but I would argue that the Kim family is rational and stable. You do not hold on to 3 generations of power by being irrational and uneven. North Korea is the most evil country in the world (next to Saudi Arabia).

      Missile Defense is nothing more than a massive subsidy to the military industrial complex. This program has been around since the 1980s and we have very little in relation to the amount of money spent. Besides only one thermonuclear weapon needs to get through rendering the program useless.

    • RM

      Robert M.

      14 7 2017 00:31

      0       0

      Psychopaths and sociopaths are very rational and stable. The messes they create are unstable. Apologies for my poor expression earlier.
      The evidence they are psychopathic is in their ruthless, totaliltarian suppression of dissent and in the starvation of their own people.

  • EH

    Eric H.

    12 7 2017 18:07

    8       7

    I think this guy is legit...would have been great with a interviewer to expand and give pushback

  • NH

    Neil H.

    12 7 2017 18:00

    4       5

    Enjoyed the presentation very much. Sounds like we are going to need a bigger boat

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    12 7 2017 17:01

    19       7

    This guy seems like a fast talking snake oil salesman.
    RealVision this was painful to watch.

    • js

      jacob s.

      12 7 2017 18:12

      0       0

      lol

    • GM

      Greg M.

      12 7 2017 19:02

      4       1

      I agree. Notice how he hides behind data but you can't use ideology - how come you can't question anything? Nope, climate change is a hard fact....Citibank is going down called by a single analyst at an asset manager. I worked there she was one of many.

  • MC

    Minum C.

    12 7 2017 16:55

    14       0

    A disappointing format for someone whose one-sided views need to be questioned and challenged by a good mediator.

    Also not sure why he feels compelled to criticize Taleb, and actually I feel he has not presented Taleb's view very accurately. Any chance Eddy is being fooled by randomness by the success of a handful of Cassandras? Eddy would say no mainly because of the similarities in the way the Cassandras approach their work and present their results. I'm not sure I agree with that.

    • pl

      pg l.

      12 7 2017 20:39

      4       0

      Seems he skipped the end of the book on grey swans (and Taleb would probably fit his description of a Cassandra). Also, pretty sure that for every major events described, you would find thousands of "experts" meeting the Cassandra characteristics who missed them (isn't the Fed filled with data driven expert PHDs who missed every big events?).

    • GH

      Gloria H.

      15 7 2017 19:22

      0       0

      @Kash -- upvoted, not because I agree with you but because you present a cogent, clearly stated argument for another point of view.

  • bm

    brian m.

    12 7 2017 16:48

    13       0

    The problem with his "Cassandra" idea is that there are so many technical experts predicting disaster that when a disaster happens there will always be someone who made an accurate prediction.
    I think the world is far more complex but our minds tend to reduce the complexity for the security of a simple model.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 03:05

      0       0

      exactly - people have been predicting the end of the world since day one - one day, in the future, one of them will turn out to be correct :)

    • pb

      phillip b.

      6 8 2017 17:35

      0       0

      It's not about whether or not there are always predictions about the end of the world. Think about it as someone who is looking at data, and articulating a cogent case. Someone acting in the interest of all of us. Think about it as trying to stop one instance of catastrophic loss of life or property in our lifetimes.

      We need new approaches to help those responsible for decisions to take action sooner. Let's hope the Cassandra Award ends up being effective even just one time.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    12 7 2017 14:04

    24       11

    Quite disappointing that RV allowed this person to preach 40 minutes of neocon imperialism unchallenged.

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      12 7 2017 14:32

      10       3

      Which we could have gotten for free by just turning on the TV "news" LOL.

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      12 7 2017 14:32

      2       4

      Which we could have gotten for free by just turning on the TV "news" LOL.

    • DS

      David S.

      12 7 2017 21:14

      2       4

      Your are correct about a lot of people predicting disasters. Eddy is trying to find a rational way to see which ones are most creditable. DLS

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    12 7 2017 13:22

    8       4

    How do I short some houses in Florida to all the climate deniers in here? Big ones, one the beach

  • PB

    Pier B.

    12 7 2017 13:17

    14       9

    Martin Armstrong has written on this subject and how clinate change is all due to natural occurring cycles. It is just another way that Government justifies to slap another tax on us. Top Scientists have come out to say it is just a hoax.

    • DS

      David S.

      12 7 2017 21:16

      3       2

      Which top scientist?

    • GH

      Gloria H.

      15 7 2017 19:14

      0       1

      Martin Armstrong is a crackpot and a convicted felon with no background in science or economics. If you're going to disagree with the vast majority of climate scientists, please find a better source.

  • PN

    Paul N.

    12 7 2017 12:25

    9       6

    Is it just me or is Climate Change the one area of science where everybody is an expert?

    • PN

      Philip N.

      12 7 2017 12:58

      8       9

      Climate change is a religion. As long as you draw the right conclusion the converted don't care how you get there. There is no idea so stupid that the climate cultists wouldn't accept it if the final conclusion was western countries are to blame and they owe everybody money.

    • LA

      Linda A.

      12 7 2017 15:35

      3       1

      Just my opinion - if u pollute the earth, it will have an effect. The pollution made in China is man made. Garbage in- garbage out.

    • PN

      Philip N.

      12 7 2017 23:27

      3       2

      I agree, lets spend the money that is wasted on climate change on cleaning up pollution. We can start with the "island" of plastic in the pacific and maybe create a special fund to clean up the places that had the misfortune of having socialist governments.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 03:03

      5       0

      LINDA A - pollution and "the climate change" hoax are two very distinct things. I don't think there is anyone who doubts we are polluting and destroying the oceans etc.

    • LA

      Linda A.

      6 9 2017 15:36

      0       0

      Matt S- pollution causes climate change.

  • JM

    James M.

    12 7 2017 11:30

    8       7

    Excellent piece! Thank you. Brooksley Born another fantastic Casandra ignored by the morons running the show!!!!

  • EF

    E F.

    12 7 2017 11:23

    6       0

    As far as I know NK has had the capability to hit Seoul and Tokyo for a long time

    • DS

      David S.

      13 7 2017 02:46

      0       0

      Even worse, they do have submarines albeit diesel models. DLS

  • CH

    Craig H.

    12 7 2017 11:16

    14       8

    Had me up until Climate Change, obviously hasn't done real research. Real climate scientists dispute climate change as a political agenda.

    Watch: Climate Hustle, are they trying to control the climate or you.

    When the world listens to Al Gore, who's investments make hundreds of millions from the climate change lie, we should all worry.

    If Jim Hansen is so called ignored why is Climate Change the headline news across the globe?

    Do your own independent research.

    • DS

      David S.

      13 7 2017 02:52

      0       2

      How would a non-scientist do his/her research. It is impossible for many scientist to understand. It is easier to listen to an echo chamber that agrees with you. Maybe climate change is a religion as mentioned earlier. Those that believe go to Heaven and those that do not believe remain on earth? DLS

  • SC

    Shane C.

    12 7 2017 11:12

    7       2

    everyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but this persistent obsession with the idea that we will never manufacture things anymore is ludacris.

  • SC

    Shane C.

    12 7 2017 11:12

    1       0

    everyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but this persistent obsession with the idea that we will never manufacture things anymore is ludacris.

  • AR

    Andrew R.

    12 7 2017 09:59

    4       1

    Even a broken clock...

  • JV

    Justin V.

    12 7 2017 09:29

    8       1

    This guy needs to look at CO2 charts prior to 1800.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/nasa-finally-admit-its-going-to-get-colder/

    "ERROR ERROR. DOES NOT COMPUTE WITH MY BIAS."

    • GH

      Gloria H.

      15 7 2017 19:07

      0       2

      Martin Armstrong is a crackpot and a convicted felon, with no background in economics or science. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

    • JV

      Justin V.

      20 7 2017 00:39

      0       0

      Regardless of what you think of Armstrong. Look at charts prior to 1800.
      http://cdiac.ornl.gov/images/air_bubbles_historical.jpg

      I encourage you to watch The Forecaster movie, might provide a bit of balance to your visceral disgust, Gloria H.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    12 7 2017 06:46

    9       13

    This guy is brilliant - love the new format of monologue / lecture by an engaging speaker. Normally, I prefer conversational style, but this speaker is an exception.

    • JH

      Jesse H.

      12 7 2017 06:58

      7       6

      There's somewhat of a lack of evidence here on the part of R.P. Eddy, but I find it interesting and thought-provoking to listen to him. Do not let his confidence and salesmanship distract you from the important content of this talk. It is definitely worth a listen, and has more substance than many other RVTV talks I have seen.

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      12 7 2017 16:31

      4       3

      Sounded more like an MK Ultra mind programming dump than brilliant monologue. But maybe that's just me...LOL.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    12 7 2017 06:08

    17       1

    It's a bit ironic, that this video has earned so many down votes. Maybe he's on to something, but we refuse to see it :-)

    I have quite a few suggestions for Cassandras. Basically anybody, who demonstrates with simple logic and supporting easy-to-understand numbers, that our current monetary system is a ponzi scheme designed for few (by those few) to benefit, qualifies. It's a pity, but not exactly a surprise, that those few, who have the power, refuse to hear the warnings and do nothing to fix the system. If you can't kill the ponzi, stay out of it.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    12 7 2017 04:10

    4       6

    Great interview, great book. Highly recommend for our own thinking.

  • CW

    Chad W.

    12 7 2017 04:01

    8       2

    Kim Jong-Un motives are to hold onto power, plain and simple.

  • CW

    Chad W.

    12 7 2017 04:01

    1       0

    Kim Jong-Un motives are to hold onto power, plain and simple.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    12 7 2017 03:43

    20       3

    I fully doubt climate change is totally man made. Yes, Mr. Hanson is a smart man, but this is the guy who helped Micheal Mann create the "Hockey Stick", a completely debunked picture of Earth temperatures for the past 2000 years. Mr. Eddy also quotes the IPCC, another discredited institution spewing incorrect information about anthropomorphic (read man-made) climate change. Once more and with gusto, The Earth's climate is powered by the Sun! What the Sun does affects the Earth's climate. To change the Earth's climate would require Carbon Dioxide levels to attain lethal levels! I don't see us Earthlings dying off in massive amounts...not with 5.35 Tera-Tonnes of foliage sucking up trillions of tons of CO2 every single day. What BS...

  • CM

    Carl M.

    12 7 2017 03:20

    4       0

    The loose blending of "plausible" and "possible" assertions ultimately weaken his larger argument in total.
    However, even if a large grain of salt is necessary, I really enjoy R.P. Eddy's confident delivery.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    12 7 2017 02:50

    0       0

    The "only reason" (he's embroiled...) according to whom?

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    12 7 2017 02:21

    6       11

    Bravo Matt S. could not have said it better myself - fear mongering at its best --

  • MS

    Matt S.

    12 7 2017 01:54

    54       37

    Can I give this total D-bag 10 thumbs down? On my God, where to begin?

    This guy is the definition of a paranoid Neo-Con American.

    Trump embroiled in this "Russian scandal"? The only reason he's involved in this Russian nonsense is because the deepstate on behalf of Hillary the loser, using CNN as their weapon, are trying to undermine the democratic process and seize back power so they fabricated a total load of BS about Russians "hacking the elections", meanwhile, hoping we will all ignore the content of those emails implicating her and numerous others in massive breaches of US law. These treasonous idiots are what's holding Trump back.

    Trump not moving the ball forward? What ball? In what direction? For that purpose? Total US domination of the planet I think you mean? No thanks, Neo-Con.

    "Strong American leadership is what's needed for a strong world" - you arrogant prick! American foreign policy is THE reason the world is so f**ked right now. We need LESS of you! And Trump knew that too.

    North Korea - maybe if the US weren't still base in South Korea, North Korea wouldn't be such an enemy of yours? Why the f**k are you still there? Why were you there in the first place? It's thousands of miles from the US. I've talked to many South Koreans - they too hate the Americans! They hate having them there in their country. So the North invades the South... so what? What's it got to do with America? Let the cards fall where they may, just GTFO. The South Koreans have the money and intelligence, they can defend themselves.

    Paranoia about ever increasing revolutions... yes or maybe all those revolutions are just labels? The advances could all just be placed under "Technological Revolution", then you wouldn't have to stay awake at night worrying about it like some little baby. If a computer can be made more powerful than any human, here's the solution to keep it safe. Don't give it any arms or legs. Problem solved.

    On 9/11, Al Qaeda, ISIS predictions - of course they were easily predicted, they were all 3 creations of the CIA, most probably in collusion with the Israelis - next.

    "The Cassandra Coefficient" lol please.... get off your high horse.

    Giving awards to people who predict problems for the US to "solve"....... Oh Lord - "if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

    The main problem identified about North Korea.... is US military plans to attack North Korea with nuclear weapons; but it's the North Koreans fault...? Quickly! Defcon 1! Engage the "Cassandra Coefficient Mega-AI machine!" lololol.

    Climate change - "It's created by humans. It's a settled question." Wow.

    In other words, if any scientist has an opinion differing from the agenda, he will be shunned, humiliated and discredited, his career ruined by smear campaigns and threats. Yep.... really scientific there dimwit. Oh btw, most every climate change model (wait, I thought it was global warming?) has utterly failed to come good on its wild predictions so far. And Antarctica is expanding, not melting. You're welcome.

    Refugee crisis in Europe caused by ISIS? Firstly, ISIS and the massive destruction of the ME region... is all down to the US, thanks for that. As for the "refugees" - look at some video footage pal - they aren't even from Syria, they are chancers coming from Africa and other sordid areas because the globalist Merkel, has invited them to invade and destroy European society. Merkel your globalist agenda friend.

    In short.... this American, the way he thinks and processes the information coming to him, IS the greatest threat to the stable future of the world. Everything is a threat. Everything needs a strong US solution. This idiot should stop writing books on high level paranoia, read Walden and go and sit alone in a forest for a year, contemplating why he and his Neo-Con moron friends are so f**king paranoid about everything.

    Thanks for ruining my morning RV!

    : )

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 02:39

      7       7

      It is easy to use terms such as "D-bag" and "loser" in place of verifiable descriptions of behaviour.

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 02:44

      3       7

      And neocon and dim wit.

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 02:52

      1       6

      The "only reason" (he's embroiled..) according to whom? Data?

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 02:57

      3       6

      Who are "they" and "they" hate "all Americans" Really.... "All Americans".

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 03:08

      19       6

      You ruined your own morning 😀

    • JL

      Jacob L.

      12 7 2017 11:57

      18       14

      Matt,

      On climate change - 97% of scientists agree with your assertions. Do they all fall into the idiot category that you so freely hand out? Also, a NASA study points out that the ice gains in Antarctica doesn't make up for the ice loss the arctic.

      On "The Russian Scandal" - clearly you are not following the facts. Trump junior has admitted the russian connection and that hacked info on Clinton was offered.

      On the US being responsible for middle east mess: Not separating religion from the state is by far the bigger issue here as well as the commodity curse not incentivicing development and reform.

      On 9/11 created by the CIA - You clearly don't live in a world inhabited by humans.

      Lastly Matt, no need for the youtube/social media-type strong language and labelling when presenting a view. It is hard to take seriously.

    • LA

      Linda A.

      12 7 2017 15:42

      2       0

      Would love to hear Mr. Harald Malgrem's commentary.

    • JL

      Jonathan L.

      12 7 2017 17:12

      7       5

      Jacob L.

      Thank you for commenting on this, someone needs to call him on this statement. Come back to reality Matt.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      13 7 2017 02:55

      4       3

      I'm in reality - those who doubt my assertions are living within the matrix, so to speak ; )

      Fair point about my foul language - it's not appropriate for RV, agreed.

    • RT

      Rune T.

      15 7 2017 17:24

      0       0

      The only U.S. subjects outside the U.S. should be tourists. U.S. subjects think the world revolves around them and their military and "solving" all problems. Go back to your own country and stay there - come visit everywhere else as tourists like the rest of the world.

    • JL

      Jacob L.

      16 7 2017 22:35

      1       0

      Great on you for owning that, Matt. A rare occurance these days where everybody is so busy defending themselves.

  • DS

    David S.

    11 7 2017 23:27

    1       1

    There was a early science fiction TV program where a scientist was looking for radio waves from another planet. He said a civilization had to be advanced enough to send out a radio signal but had not yet destroyed itself - a narrow time frame. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    11 7 2017 23:08

    2       8

    Really good to see Mr. Eddy on RVTV again. Giving the Cassandra Award once a year is a good idea, but the real benefit of your work should be to identify, validate and back the predictions that you feel deserve additional help - writing, networking, presenting followup, etc. At least you can promote some of the predictions that fit your criteria. Best of Luck. DLS

  • FC

    Flavian C.

    11 7 2017 22:55

    20       13

    Laughable. Maybe the weakest interview on RV. He should read Incerto by Nassim Taleb.

    • DH

      Dale H.

      12 7 2017 02:36

      8       7

      To be taken seriously, it would be good if you gave evidence as to why this is laughable. And according to whom is it laughable?

    • PW

      Phil W.

      12 7 2017 23:33

      0       0

      WOW! what a great rant Kudos to you

  • JS

    Jesse S.

    11 7 2017 22:25

    3       1

    Perhaps the "plan" is to detonate enough nucs in N Korea to take out their military and solve the climate change problem at the same time. just sayin'...

    • DS

      David S.

      11 7 2017 23:30

      1       0

      Cute, but hopefully not. DLS

  • JC

    Jonathan C.

    11 7 2017 21:45

    27       1

    This presentation surprised me by its omission of important context.

    1) The question of who can make accurate predictions came to wide prominence in 2015 with the publication of "Superforecasting" by Tetlock and Gardner. There is now a robust social project to explore it. See http://www.goodjudgment.com/.

    2) It does no good to show how many disasters were predicted without mentioning how many predictions of disasters were accurate (and how many weren't). This is the question of sensitivity versus specificity. Predictions outnumber disasters by a very wide margin.

    3) The nuclear winter theory came under tough criticism shortly after it became well-known, and the issue is now pretty open. See for example http://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/23/science/nuclear-winter-theorists-pull-back.html.

  • MA

    Mikael A.

    11 7 2017 21:38

    8       0

    It's easy to forget all those people who made intelligent and bold predictions that played out and highlight the few that did when we are looking backwards in time.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    11 7 2017 21:31

    13       16

    Excellent analysis RP Eddy!. Eddy is right about Trump. Trump is not articulate in his message. Pres. Trump has the opportunity to be a great president if he could stop using his energy to attack, bully & brood on his twitter machine. His ego & bullying is such a down-fall. Harry Markopolous made another warning recently regarding pension funds & insurance companies. He should press those agencies & companies before another 08' part 2 occurs.

    • DS

      David S.

      12 7 2017 21:26

      2       2

      Trumps "ego & bullying is such a down-fall", but that is who he is. DLS

  • SS

    Sam S.

    11 7 2017 21:30

    14       0

    Is it possible North Korea wants to be a player on the world scene like South Korea and is using weapons as a way to negotiate to bring the country into the new world as China has done? Heard thousands of scientists have signed petitions against global warming not caused by humans, stating climate change has more to do with the Sun and magnetic fields. CO2 from ice core samples greater thousands of years ago, so maybe earthly planetary actions far greater than mankind's actions? Oil flowed in many places on the surface around the globe for thousands of years, caught fire and burned for decades or more----I'm just saying. Controlling Pollution and Chemical destruction is critical for sure. Great think piece---thx!

    • DS

      David S.

      11 7 2017 22:44

      4       16

      "Heard thousands of scientist" ??? This is the same type of comments made by the heads of tobacco companies that no one has proven 100% that smoking causes cancer. DLS

    • DS

      David S.

      16 7 2017 21:57

      0       1

      I wonder how many of the thumbs down smoke. DLS

  • MM

    Michael M.

    11 7 2017 20:31

    9       9

    Great until climate change bit. If these 6C scenarios are real, to the extent there are solutions they pretty much involve forcibly sterilising the third world.

  • RM

    Roberto M.

    11 7 2017 19:13

    10       0

    Next level editing, graphics.. just starting it but you guys love what you're doing and its obvious/appreciated.