Will Denyer – Think Piece

Featuring Will Denyer

Will Denyer, US Economist to Gavekal Dragonomics, features on this week’s Think Piece, leading us through his recent shift in framework – being bullish on the US economy while turning bearish on US equities.

Published on
7 April, 2015
Topic
Energy Commodities, US Economy
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
96

Comments

  • FO

    Federico O.

    21 4 2015 06:17

    0       0

    ISM Manufacturing down for 5 months in a row, and almost at 50. Housing permits down more than 5% this month. Yield Curve flattening. Unemployment claims rising.
    I think the cycle is at its peak.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    15 4 2015 19:10

    0       0

    The "healthy consumer"/ low oil "tax cut" thesis? Blown out of the water since this was recorded by multiple disappointing retail sales numbers. The expansion exists only in Wonderland.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    14 4 2015 08:11

    0       0

    Misses on two points. Lower oil price to be countered by money hungry, debt ridden gov'ts and Employment numbers reflect part time increases only! Not conducive to expanding economy.

  • RO

    Robert O.

    13 4 2015 06:09

    0       0

    The real economy is not just the S&P 500, in fact most US jobs are not due to companies in this index. Betting that the US market won't continue to rise from its overvalued level is a safe bet.

  • DL

    David L.

    11 4 2015 05:43

    7       0

    I tend to disagree but you must always listen to the counter argument to your beliefs.

  • RB

    Roy B.

    8 4 2015 19:41

    0       0

    Talking in circles. Can't have it both ways. See Butler on commodity prices. US rails, all 100% businesses, not seeing robust volume deltas. Dow Theory: rails as eecon indicator.

  • RP

    Richard P.

    8 4 2015 01:49

    3       0

    Don’t buy his happy persecutive on growth trends- the US economy is stuck in low gear due to poor monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy and cost of most things are up, except wages. Not good!

  • WM

    Will M.

    8 4 2015 01:08

    15       1

    Cant buy it. Unemployment #s are understated. Debt excessive. Job quality worst in nations history. Stocks overvalued & confidence extreme. High % pop. on welfare. Record low interest. wake up!

  • JS

    John S.

    7 4 2015 21:55

    3       0

    Don't buy into the bull case at all

  • PW

    Phil W.

    7 4 2015 21:47

    3       0

    I just don't see a bull econ, with 140mil US peeps collecting some kind of Gov handout

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    7 4 2015 21:00

    2       0

    Health care $ = funny money. Lots of folks benefit & pay. Oil $ = real $ that goes to fewer folks. Not convinced re US bull equity market. Yet Simon Ogus: possible in 1st stage of currency collapse.

  • FS

    Fred S.

    7 4 2015 16:18

    6       0

    Interesting perspective on both US econ and markets. I do think his perfunctory mention of health care costs misses the mark. By all measures I'v seen, those costs increase significantly soon.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    7 4 2015 15:27

    2       0

    Oil prices are lower. I believe it is going to be more than offset by higher health insurance cost (for marginal earners) and lower earnings due to dollar strength for US multinationals.

  • ja

    josh a.

    7 4 2015 13:41

    2       1

    a thoughtful perspective.