Will Denyer – Think Piece

Published on
April 7th, 2015
Topic
US Economy, Energy Commodities
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Will Denyer – Think Piece

Featuring Will Denyer

Published on: April 7th, 2015 • Duration: 15 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: US Economy, Energy Commodities

Will Denyer, US Economist to Gavekal Dragonomics, features on this week's Think Piece, leading us through his recent shift in framework - being bullish on the US economy while turning bearish on US equities.

Comments

  • FO
    Federico O.
    21 April 2015 @ 06:17
    ISM Manufacturing down for 5 months in a row, and almost at 50. Housing permits down more than 5% this month. Yield Curve flattening. Unemployment claims rising. I think the cycle is at its peak.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    15 April 2015 @ 19:10
    The "healthy consumer"/ low oil "tax cut" thesis? Blown out of the water since this was recorded by multiple disappointing retail sales numbers. The expansion exists only in Wonderland.
  • AE
    Alex E.
    14 April 2015 @ 08:11
    Misses on two points. Lower oil price to be countered by money hungry, debt ridden gov'ts and Employment numbers reflect part time increases only! Not conducive to expanding economy.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    13 April 2015 @ 06:09
    The real economy is not just the S&P 500, in fact most US jobs are not due to companies in this index. Betting that the US market won't continue to rise from its overvalued level is a safe bet.
  • DL
    David L.
    11 April 2015 @ 05:43
    I tend to disagree but you must always listen to the counter argument to your beliefs.
  • RB
    Roy B.
    8 April 2015 @ 19:41
    Talking in circles. Can't have it both ways. See Butler on commodity prices. US rails, all 100% businesses, not seeing robust volume deltas. Dow Theory: rails as eecon indicator.
  • RP
    Richard P.
    8 April 2015 @ 01:49
    Don’t buy his happy persecutive on growth trends- the US economy is stuck in low gear due to poor monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy and cost of most things are up, except wages. Not good!
  • WM
    Will M.
    8 April 2015 @ 01:08
    Cant buy it. Unemployment #s are understated. Debt excessive. Job quality worst in nations history. Stocks overvalued & confidence extreme. High % pop. on welfare. Record low interest. wake up!
  • JS
    John S.
    7 April 2015 @ 21:55
    Don't buy into the bull case at all
  • PW
    Phil W.
    7 April 2015 @ 21:47
    I just don't see a bull econ, with 140mil US peeps collecting some kind of Gov handout
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    7 April 2015 @ 21:00
    Health care $ = funny money. Lots of folks benefit & pay. Oil $ = real $ that goes to fewer folks. Not convinced re US bull equity market. Yet Simon Ogus: possible in 1st stage of currency collapse.
  • FS
    Fred S.
    7 April 2015 @ 16:18
    Interesting perspective on both US econ and markets. I do think his perfunctory mention of health care costs misses the mark. By all measures I'v seen, those costs increase significantly soon.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    7 April 2015 @ 15:27
    Oil prices are lower. I believe it is going to be more than offset by higher health insurance cost (for marginal earners) and lower earnings due to dollar strength for US multinationals.
  • ja
    josh a.
    7 April 2015 @ 13:41
    a thoughtful perspective.