Art Hogan’s 2019 Target

Published on
January 18th, 2019
Topic
US Economy, Sentiment, Fiscal Policy
Duration
17 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Art Hogan’s 2019 Target

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Art Hogan

Published on: January 18th, 2019 • Duration: 17 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: US Economy, Sentiment, Fiscal Policy

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, joins Real Vision for the first time to spell out the headwinds and tailwinds for the S&P 500 in 2019. He reviews his outlook, considers risks to the thesis and provides a year-end target, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on January 17, 2018.

Comments

  • SB
    Sean B.
    25 January 2019 @ 13:24
    While I think Art and Brian did a great job. I think Brian could have asked more in depth questions, like “how does Central Bank liquidity play into your thesis?”. Not in a “gotcha way” to disorient Art, but to pose questions that are typically not asked by mainstream media.
  • SS
    Simeon S.
    22 January 2019 @ 06:28
    Sell side guy, what can he say..
    • CM
      C M.
      22 January 2019 @ 15:48
      Agree. Not much insight here. Has to be hard to find great interviews on a weekly basis. But on this video, you can save your time from watching unless you don't read the news and need to learn that headwinds are China, interest rates, Brexit, and the governement shutdown but that they are short turn and if one changes, market goes higher.
  • JN
    Jack N.
    21 January 2019 @ 14:43
    China and Fed and Shutdown. Wow. More vanilla ice cream from a cliche smith.
  • AG
    Adam G.
    21 January 2019 @ 09:19
    Ill make a bold call : The Real Vision that has been so amazing is on its way out. Sold out
  • AG
    Adam G.
    21 January 2019 @ 09:15
    This is now-casting nonsense. Any forward looking trader will get exactly Zero from these softball pre scripted CNN v 2.
  • DR
    David R.
    20 January 2019 @ 12:29
    His S&P 2600 is a decent technical inflection point and it's above it. Will soon drop but that's a buy because stocks will indeed be supported above the lows and rise for 2019. Another major factor is the weak USD especially against EM which will support equities for both. The better trade is to long select emerging markets, or be long the spread between EM & SPY, like the smart money has been doing for 3-4 months and outperforming with double-digit positive returns. Stay that course.
  • DB
    David B.
    20 January 2019 @ 05:16
    not a single mention of credit markets or liquidity conditions
  • JS
    Jon S.
    19 January 2019 @ 21:38
    Headwinds smeadwinds. This market is not driven by PE ratios, tax loss/ gain selling, or fundamentals. It has been and continues to be a Fed driven market pure and simple. No disrespect to the interviewer/ interviewee.
  • EF
    Eric F.
    19 January 2019 @ 15:09
    Great video, gave it a thumbs up even though I totally disagree with it. Very classy touch from both gentlemen re Jack Bogle. Lots of good points but Brexit etc. is not just going to go away. There is a lot of discontent that caused Trump, Brexit, Yellow Vests and until sane monetary policy is restored - with the initial disruption / reset that is very likely to cause - this just keeps building beneath the surface until it explodes. I think it has already started and what we’re seeing is a bear market rally.
  • JM
    Jude M.
    19 January 2019 @ 06:30
    Well covered by Brian!
  • JB
    Jake B.
    19 January 2019 @ 03:47
    He literally named all the distractions to the market that every single person is looking at. Trading based on those narratives is extremely dangerous as all the real macro data rolls over.
    • AZ
      Arthur Z.
      20 January 2019 @ 17:13
      Absolutely. Headline trading is a great way to blow up your accounts! Germany, China, Canada, USA.. all economic data is slowing. That’s what’s fundamentally driving this market IMO.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      21 January 2019 @ 15:47
      Yes ! I really like Mr. Price hand waiving. He keep waiving them around and I almost forgot how bad the info content is... :)
  • DS
    David S.
    18 January 2019 @ 23:06
    Good practical discussion of the economic landscape and market. Sovereign, corporate and personal debt problems are major economic headwinds to me for a long time. Mr. Hogan addressed Italy, but RVTV has addressed the worldwide debt crisis and liquidity concerns in many videos. If other headwinds go well, keep some powder dry for approaching debt crisis. It will not go well. DLS
  • JD
    Jeff D.
    18 January 2019 @ 16:47
    FYI. This is a awesome website for visualizing the underlying weakness in the stock market: http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-200d-sma-params-5y-x-x-x/
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      21 January 2019 @ 02:17
      Jeff... Thanks for sharing!!
  • gg
    georgy g.
    18 January 2019 @ 15:37
    Glad to see a rare practical and bullish view.
  • SM
    Stuart M.
    18 January 2019 @ 13:49
    Appreciate this video - whilst I enjoy the shorter term, more tactical trade ideas it's also nice to mix it up and get some perspective on the longer duration.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    18 January 2019 @ 12:55
    Mentioning John Bogle was a nice touch. RIP John Bogle
    • EF
      Eric F.
      19 January 2019 @ 15:10
      Agreed.
  • NJ
    Namit J.
    18 January 2019 @ 12:30
    The trade idea need to me more tactical.
    • gg
      georgy g.
      18 January 2019 @ 15:37
      Go long buddy!!!
  • AR
    Andreas R.
    18 January 2019 @ 12:25
    Another great video with Brian P.. good to see the other side of the spectrum after so many bearish views. I believe Q418 and Q119 should be mixed especially in cyclicals such as industrials, materials & energy as tighter fed and trade war must have weighted on business. Major market lows tend to be re-tested at least once, which will set the base for a multi month bottoming phase, before we rally back towards Q3/Q4, if indeed as Art H pointed trade war turns into tailwind, and Fed pauses. Then in 2020, may be complete new story as end cycle will come knocking at the door again..
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      18 January 2019 @ 17:08
      Thank you, Andreas!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      19 January 2019 @ 15:11
      Can’t see it being that quick or that easy Andreas.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    18 January 2019 @ 11:30
    All credit to Art and Brian for praising John Bogle. RIP. Regardless of your view on indexation and I personally think it has gone much too far and is now a real potential market black swan, you have to credit Bogle's vision and genuine regard and consideration for the small average investor, a vocation I am pleased to see RV is trying to emulate. I also like Art's arguments for the bull case on equities in 2019.
  • NO
    Neil O.
    18 January 2019 @ 11:04
    Not sure Italy dissipates as easily as Brexit or China trade. Eurozone crisis looks a higher risk from a European perspective than an American one.
  • ns
    niall s.
    18 January 2019 @ 10:02
    One point not discussed , in the event that the China trade situation normalizes , the Fed can get back to their previous more hawkish stance.

More Episodes