At Your Own Discretion

Published on
January 16th, 2019
Topic
Trading, Recession, Technical Analysis
Duration
16 minutes
Asset class
Equities

At Your Own Discretion

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Tony Greer

Published on: January 16th, 2019 • Duration: 16 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: Trading, Recession, Technical Analysis

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, reveals his first tactical short of 2019. While he’s bearish on the overall market, one sector in particular has his attention. He reviews his thesis and lays out the trade in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on January 15, 2019. “The Workshop” will be hosted on February 4th, 2019 at the Bowery Ballroom in New York. Register for tickets here: https://www.realvision.com/theworkshop

Comments

  • F
    Floyd .
    22 January 2019 @ 23:56
    well done,I appreciate the detail and the thought process and after today your idea seems to be working out. I play a bit with leveraged ETFs as rentals and saw the SCC have a nice day
  • MF
    M F.
    20 January 2019 @ 07:16
    Thank you RV/Brian for bringing "The Trade" section back to a disciplined process, whereas before it was slipping. Firstly, Tony's view and rational are reasonably argued and nicely contrarian with a healthy dose of humility. Secondly, and more importantly, you have reinserted the discipline of what "The Trade" used to have...namely, specific entry, target, stop loss, catalyst, and time frame, in a presentation that is brief and to the point. Anything other than non-specific entries/exits/stops/catalysts is just conversation/not a trade--which is fine, but just belong in the other RV sections--so thank you for making this (and hopefully future "The Trade" episodes) actionable and specific. Great work Tony and RV
  • RA
    Robert A.
    19 January 2019 @ 00:54
    Thanks again for another great one Tony. Your presentations are one of the reasons I remain a long time early RV subscriber. Giving the XLY top holdings was a nice touch and presenting your Macro and individual stock reasoning is just flat “excellent communicating”. If only I hadn’t made the Canopy trade maybe I could have afforded the Plane ride and admission to the NY extravaganza (hopefully you know that last bit was tongue in cheek). No one can ever say you do “small beer”—now I’ve got to take on Jeff Bezos...with Elon’s claw marks still requiring salve.....on well, once more into the breach!
  • DL
    Dan L.
    18 January 2019 @ 16:27
    Trade is currently eating me alive on the XLY puts I bought.
    • F
      Floyd .
      22 January 2019 @ 23:49
      not after today
  • FC
    Frank C. | Contributor
    18 January 2019 @ 03:14
    Nailed it. Great job, TG.
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    17 January 2019 @ 11:33
    I love Tony G. Top content, every time!
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    17 January 2019 @ 03:56
    Thanks Tony. This is really realistic and reasonable. If you go one step further, I think the following sub-sectors will probably have more problems on the course of this year: - Motels and Hotels - Toys and Games and Hobbies
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      17 January 2019 @ 14:54
      That's an excellent call Ibrahim, I'm going to do some research there... Motels Hotels make sense...
  • JC
    James C.
    17 January 2019 @ 00:21
    That was cool
  • PC
    Peter C.
    16 January 2019 @ 23:40
    love this idea. thank you Tony.
  • DS
    David S.
    16 January 2019 @ 20:24
    I believe your trade is also reasonable because the earning slowdown due to worldwide debt levels. In Mr. Druckenmiller’s interview on RVTV he wants rates higher, but to slip them in as opposed to forecasting them. From the interview (Well worth watching again.): "We have this massive debt problem. If we don't normalize, it's going to accelerate and cause a bigger problem down the road. If we do normalize, we're going to have a problem. And unfortunately, we're going to have a much bigger problem than we would have if we had normalized four or five years ago". In addition, “, free money has destroyed price signals”. He did say that the Fed would go one too far, and then it could back up, but I do not believe he meant at today's Fed rates. The tug-of-war between lower rates for the stock market and the higher rates for bonds is the long-term dynamic that will drive the market for years. I feel the lower current long-term US interest rates are in part due to US bonds being a safe haven. Time will tell. DLS
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    16 January 2019 @ 19:29
    Tony, you imprint a smile on my tactical face every time you rant, I mean educate us folk. -many thanks.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 January 2019 @ 20:27
      HA. That's great. Thank you.
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    16 January 2019 @ 19:04
    Tony - not sure why you remind me of Tony Stark but you do. Really appreciate all your updates, always well explained and concise. Look forward to hearing more of your ideas in 2019. Thank you.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 January 2019 @ 20:18
      ha if I had a nickel for every time I got that I'd be done tradin'. Thanks Firoze K. Good Luck Sir.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    16 January 2019 @ 13:15
    Surely, being a more tactical trader would mean you would short individual stocks rather than an ETF?
  • HK
    Himali K.
    16 January 2019 @ 11:44
    Tony, Appreciate you putting yourself out there and your consistent cogent thesis on both long and short ideas. Good luck in 2019!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 January 2019 @ 13:06
      Good luck to you Himali. I'm trying my best, Sir.
    • HK
      Himali K.
      16 January 2019 @ 13:48
      Thank you and it's Ms. Himali. No worries.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 January 2019 @ 20:19
      Please forgive me! Thank you.