Betting on a Bullion Breakout

Featuring Mark Newton

Technical analyst Mark Newton of Newton Advisors is bullish on the precious metal. In this interview with Brian Price, Mark explains that the charts are setting up nicely for a substantial gold rally. Filmed on June 25, 2018.

Published on
29 June, 2018
Topic
Commodities, Trading, Gold
Duration
12 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
0

Comments

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    14 7 2018 18:48

    0       0

    Brian,
    What would it take to push phy gold above 1550?
    Thx
    Harry

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    7 7 2018 05:36

    0       0

    Thanks Brian; Keep up the great work.
    Might you also ask your interviewee(s) whether they have the position on (in their personal portfolio and their clients portfolio) and if appropriate "how have they applied this trade?" (in this instance, futures/EFT/miners/physical/..)
    (For controlling risk, I am generally using these trade ideas as suggestions for options positions, if the probabilities look reasonable)

  • GG

    Glenn G.

    3 7 2018 03:07

    1       0

    Here we are a week later ( July 2nd ) at Mr Newton's lower end of the range $1,240 USD price. I do not believe a stop loss price was mentioned but I would be curious to know if he has one in mind. Looking at $GLD there does seem to be violent short term moves so a return to $1,370 doesn't seem out of the question. $GLD does seem to have support if you draw a trend line from the 03/15/17 low of $114.07 to 07/10/17 low of $114.85 and extend it out to current time frame. Watching this with interest as this will be quite the inflection point in my opinion.

    • CL

      Chris L.

      6 7 2018 06:39

      0       0

      Real Vision's commodity picks have been frigging atrocious.

  • JJ

    Justin J.

    1 7 2018 06:13

    2       0

    I liked the contextualization of the "death cross". Context is everything in technical analysis

  • AS

    A S.

    1 7 2018 03:43

    0       0

    1240 is the weekly chart stop run... they may just run those stops. I would be a buyer look below and fail or at 1215/16 major long term support.

  • PT

    Paul T.

    1 7 2018 02:25

    2       0

    The gold reserves at the fed can’t used to drive down the futures contracts on a sustainable manner into the future. The money supply M1 is about $14trillion. Its about time when the markets realise that the Russians and the Chinese are dumping dollars for gold, which would sky rocket the prises.
    Bullish definitely long term.

    • PT

      Paul T.

      1 7 2018 19:47

      1       0

      And one more thing the Chinese are buying up oil from US to appease trump to increase imports into china. The chinese are killing two birds in one stone
      1- dumping dollars for real asset like oil
      2- playing the geopolitic card to help trump look good for the US voter, buying him time until the dollar implodes.

  • SH

    Stu H.

    30 6 2018 12:46

    5       0

    Rising support from the 2015 low has also just been successfully tested at $1245 and RSI is oversold to add to the technical picture. GLD Dec options vertical spread at 125 - 128 gives a reward risk of 4 : 1.

  • CL

    Chris L.

    30 6 2018 11:37

    3       0

    MacroView Research forecasting $1160 from breakdown of $1357

    • LN

      Lucy N.

      30 6 2018 13:52

      2       0

      Yeah, oil was going to 35 , the 10 year yield would go to 1

  • ns

    niall s.

    30 6 2018 08:34

    2       0

    Congratulations to RV for putting the "Disclaimer " in written format . it was getting repetitive having it narrated every time .

  • MK

    Mike K.

    30 6 2018 02:10

    1       0

    Interesting... got a demark daily buy on wednesday (video was published friday). Technically, he is spot-on for a good risk reward right here and now. #tightStops

  • rr

    rlw r.

    29 6 2018 19:28

    4       0

    Brian thanks for owning your slips, RV culture ... rock on

    • BP

      Brian P.

      29 6 2018 20:32

      1       0

      Yessir. Thank you for being a part of the community.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    29 6 2018 17:40

    0       0

    4th derivative is EXK. Only my broker is laughing all the way to his yacht

  • GT

    Graham T.

    29 6 2018 17:38

    0       0

    Tom McClellan points out divergence between Yen and Gold but Hulbert says that short term advisors still not bearish enough.mmmm

  • MC

    Minum C.

    29 6 2018 16:23

    0       2

    He looked up and to the right with about 1:42 remaining. Tut tut. Having said that, this guy has been on a few times and his trades normally work out decently.

  • DC

    Darren C.

    29 6 2018 14:59

    0       0

    When you see a headline like this, that surely elicits a belly laugh from many, counter-intuitively you suspect the presenter just might be right.

  • WM

    William M.

    29 6 2018 14:49

    1       0

    Good discussion, however, since Mark favors technicals it would have been useful for him to give the technical limit at which point a drop below would signal even further falls. Feels like a further washout to test the 1240 level is mandatory to see if we are heading below 1200. As almost everyone and their dog agrees, a move above 1360-1380 will likely set up for 1500 dollar gold and higher. I am a big fan, but skeptical we are there yet.

    • BP

      Brian P.

      29 6 2018 17:02

      17       0

      You’re right, William. I should have done a better job helping to frame all aspects of the trade. That said, I spoke with Mark this morning for additional color and he offered this addendum: “[I would use] $1,235 as the stop. That gives a small cushion and given that gold is trading at $1,250. Risking $15 to make at least $50, potentially $120-130 into October is fine.”

      For reference, at the time of the trade, Mark would have been comfortable buying dips down to $1,240, hence the loss of $14 from then-current levels in the original segment. Below $1,240, he’d be a seller. This note represents an adjustment with the action since.

      On a related note, I will do better for you and the entire Real Vision community. Thank you for watching!

    • DS

      David S.

      29 6 2018 23:21

      1       0

      Brian P.: We are a tough audience. I would give you some advice, but you are already a hundred times better than I would be. Gold is a difficult asset to value and people have very strong opinions about it pro and con. Good Luck. DLS

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    29 6 2018 14:39

    1       0

    Risk-on remains pervasive after this 10% equity trading range (approximately SPX 2800 - 2530) was established this year. Of course, with those conditions still intact, albeit to a lesser degree than straight up in the past, I think PM weakness and the further flattering of TSY yield curve with US the only rate hiker (perceived USD strength) is cause for "some big players in the bond market" to believe a recession is somewhat closer than thought. IMHAO, there's an impending "convergence" between mighty forces (bullish and bearish) that will likely get fiercely triggered as we watch the most indicative component for a short lived inflation freak out moment known as crude oil, aggressively reach for memorable triple digit prices! Over and out. Happy Holiday US!

    • VP

      Vincent P.

      29 6 2018 16:44

      1       1

      ....sorry forgot to add that gold is going lower with the flattening curve as a sign of economic downturn and possible disinflation or even deflation. Al that said, having about a 5% allocation in physical PM's is a small price for long term protection from debt calamity.

  • SC

    Sajad C.

    29 6 2018 13:55

    3       2

    Gold is struggling, even with real issues in the market, political fall outs everywhere it struggled to move up. It may struggle to stay above 1250 for now. Of course eventually it will pop up as the gold bugs expect. But the downward momentum may keep going. 1220 may bring new entrants.

  • BM

    Beth M.

    29 6 2018 13:36

    2       0

    This is why I subscribe to Real Vision...excellent information! Thank you

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    29 6 2018 11:53

    2       0

    Er, did i miss it, or did he not actually cite a specific stop loss?
    (Trading and investment recommendations without hard risk management are what the general financial media spews out. Not something we expect from RealVision).

    i did notice the final summary touting a $14 risk. Are y'all going to bail if it drops to 1239?

    • BP

      Brian P.

      29 6 2018 17:03

      0       0

      You’re right, Tay. Please see my response the William above. Thank you for watching!

  • SS

    Sam S.

    29 6 2018 11:43

    3       1

    Long term look on the dollar is higher, could get some pull back of that, but to me points to a higher USD. GLD is looking way oversold and may provide a nice wave count up into the season for a trade. Good presentation of on both technical and fundamentals.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    29 6 2018 10:29

    12       2

    Appreciate the thoughts, but I disagree. Hold Gold, don't trade it. ETF/Futures, a big no-no.

  • WE

    William E.

    29 6 2018 10:25

    4       0

    If you have no gold (physical or miners) in your portfolio, I encourage you to take a position. Put your toe into the water. Even a small position will have you focus bit more on this historic currency & store of value. Meaning... opportunity to learn and maybe even make some money...if not today then overtime. Good luck!

    • MK

      Mike K.

      30 6 2018 02:18

      1       0

      Physical + miners. Yup! When I speak to fellow colleagues, they laugh at the fact I own physical.
      ,,,and that my friends is one strong signal for a long term buy. Right here is not a bad place to start. If it doesn't hold next low risk entry would be 1205 to 1190.
      But then again, the market has proved me wrong many a'time.

    • TM

      The-First-James M.

      1 7 2018 17:40

      0       0

      I've been laughed at too for owning Gold, ironically back in 2016 at the beginning of the breakout from the Bear trend. It can be a great contrarian indicator...

  • CM

    Christopher M.

    29 6 2018 10:21

    2       0

    Great video. Nice to have this confirm of a position I opened in $GDX yesterday based on seasonality.