Bucking the Consensus

Featuring Joeseph Trevisani

Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, says dollar bears will soon be disappointed. He explains the catalysts and lays out his trade in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on May 7, 2018.

Published on
9 May, 2018
Topic
Trading, US Dollar
Duration
10 minutes
Asset class
Currencies
Rating
22

Comments

  • IF

    Ian F.

    11 5 2018 17:54

    8       0

    Justine is hot.

  • BC

    Bryan C.

    9 5 2018 19:39

    1       0

    So the DXY index is not a tradable vehicle, right? You can trade the UUP ETF or the /DX futures contract, or even the DX/EUR currency pair. But I didn’t think it was actually possible to buy the dollar index directly, right?

    • WG

      Wade G.

      9 5 2018 22:16

      0       1

      Yeah, as far as I can tell, you're right. If RV is committed to chasing retail clients, like me, it would help if they'd comment on such matters. Basically, if the "trade idea" requires a futures account, or is otherwise off the beaten path, perhaps acknowledge it and ask the guest if there are other ways to express the trade. I looked over UUP briefly, but the recent price action doesn't translate well to the proposed trade. Closed at 24.40 something, and the DXY target he suggested appears to correspond to about 25ish on UUP (last observed late June 2017). I like the dollar here and modestly reduced precious metal positions because I respect it that much.

    • DM

      Dan M.

      9 5 2018 23:11

      0       0

      correct. Not well communicated by the video as it would lead one to believe they can trade the index. In fact, you cannot trade any index. You can trade only a vehicle (ETF, futures contract, etc.) that attempts to mirror the respective index.

  • DT

    Dmitry T.

    9 5 2018 13:06

    0       0

    DXY is EUR/USD trade for the most past of it. Talking of EUR though, I wonder if a better trade is to short EUR versus EM currencies, which have been very weak against it (on top of it's relative recovery versus USD)...

  • VC

    Vince C.

    9 5 2018 12:31

    0       0

    There's a reason for the in-video comments calling it a contrarian trade. Fundamentals aside there's a clear upside breakout of the DXY from a couple of key patterns. Not saying I necessarily agree with the trade or trade reasons but there's merit to the idea. Despite this the current trade was one to be made a couple weeks ago.

  • RI

    R I.

    9 5 2018 12:13

    2       3

    Kinda of hilarious with these dollar bulls (not to name names) with their completely divergent reasons for being a bull. The US economy is firing on all cylinders; go long the dollar. The economy is collapsing; go long the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar remains in a bear market.

  • gg

    gskozlov@gmail.com g.

    9 5 2018 11:53

    6       2

    Right Idea, wrong reason. The main reason for dollar rally is short squeese, organised by Fed. They are sucking liquidity from the system and rising rates. Look at the EM debt and currencies. Check how much they had borowed in US dollars, when the rates were around negative. When and how much they need to rollover. Look at the US Treasuary new debt issuance and rollover of the old. You have the perfect conditions for a short squeese. And it doesn`t matter what kind of statistics will be published in US later. I have first 6 month objective in euro-usd of 1.07-1.08 (gap), 1.00-1.03 by December 2018 if the liqudity will be short by that time.