Bull Run to Carry On

Published on
August 28th, 2018
Topic
Macro, US Economy, Trading
Duration
14 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Bull Run to Carry On

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Michael Purves

Published on: August 28th, 2018 • Duration: 14 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: Macro, US Economy, Trading

Michael Purves, chief global strategist and head of derivatives strategy at Weeden & Co., remains positive on U.S. equities. Amid the longest bull run in history, Michael explains to Brian Price that a constructive macro backdrop will help push stocks even higher and therefore recommends buying SPY calls. Filmed on August 27, 2018 in New York.

Comments

  • PD
    Peter D.
    29 August 2018 @ 22:15
    Taking a bull position in a market where all the upside in the last 10 years has been due to government actions (low rates, asset purchases, tax cuts) seems a tad aggressive. (David Stockman notes today on ZH that corporate profits, ex-the benefits they got from reduced interest payments (due to Fed actions), haven't increased in a decade).
  • DR
    David R.
    29 August 2018 @ 17:48
    The weak US dollar helps lift US stocks in nominal terms. Dollar weakness won't be linear but it's gathering pace again after a slight reprieve for part of this year, just an insignificant partial retracement of the the dollar's primary downtrend. So US-focused investors should continue to stay invested in the US stock bull. Stocks don't crash when so many are calling for a crash and with the dollar in a secular downtrend (since its last major top at 103.85, below the prior DXY top; lower highs and lower lows continue in the long run).
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      29 August 2018 @ 17:50
      +1 to everything David said
  • DS
    David S.
    29 August 2018 @ 10:21
    No trade is made in isolation. Mr. Price, it would be a benefit to me to know from your interviewee 1) is he/she recommending this trade to clients, 2) does he/she have skin in the game, 3) how would he/she scale in, 4) what percent of a client's portfolio is he/she recommending, 5) what percentage of his/her personal portfolio is currently at risk, 5) what is the maximum percentage of his/her portfolio he/she would risk. As a measure of confidence in the trade initial sizing and future scaling in and out are important. I am sure that Mr. Purves is “not all” in in his account nor recommending “all in” in his client's accounts. These should be should questions in future trade ideas to give us an expectation of his/her confidence. I am sure others could add to this list better than I can. Giving me entry, stop losses, etc. does not tell me enough about his/her conviction on this trade. DLS
  • NI
    Nate I.
    29 August 2018 @ 04:32
    The everything bubble may indeed continue to inflate, but I believe now is a time for caution. In a late stage bull market, you want to know exactly what you own and to steer clear of story stocks and debt junkies. Holding calls in lieu of the underlying SPX isn't a bad idea to capture the upside and limit downside, but that's as far as I would go.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    29 August 2018 @ 00:42
    He's probably right. US & Global PMIs have topped around Mar18, but Trump's tax cuts and the continued benefit from regulation cuts have boosted SPX EPS YoY to 30% into year end (EPS YoY would normally have topped with PMIs). That should see NFPs YoY continue to hold up > 1%. It sharply reduces the risk of a major SPX top here.
  • DS
    David S.
    28 August 2018 @ 19:06
    Mr. Purves may be correct on the trade, but it is too risky for me. Except in personal self-interest, I think that the administration negotiates poorly. Negotiations are built on trust not on win/lose bullying. Is there anyone who can afford to trust this administration? Was the summit with North Korea a victory? Was Helsinki a triumph? With massive stock buybacks, massive deficit spending, massive corporate tax cuts, baby boomers topping off their retirement savings with ETF investing, and the US being the cleanest shirt in a filthy hamper, the stock indexes will rise until the problems become too big to sweep under the rug. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      29 August 2018 @ 17:09
      3Q2018 Treasury plans to borrow $329 billion, 74% higher than $189 billion borrowed in 3Q2017. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      5 September 2018 @ 08:39
      It is interesting that someone would give a thumbs down to a fact that the 3Q2018 borrowings is estimated at $329 billion. I guess that he/she just does not like the fact. DLS
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    28 August 2018 @ 18:45
    smart money is bullish during a bull market
    • LJ
      Lucille J.
      28 August 2018 @ 22:25
      Why is everyone worried that the Fed will raise rates to quickly-if the fundamental are strong. No buyback = stock market crash.
  • my
    markettaker y.
    28 August 2018 @ 17:33
    How could his views be differentiated from post-facto justification storytelling? I.e. where is the science here? It just seems like the finance version of 'I can has opinionz?'
  • JW
    Joel W.
    28 August 2018 @ 16:27
    RV, thank you for tightening up the time between filming and publishing!
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    28 August 2018 @ 16:24
    The thumbs down and cries from the usual bears is interesting to see. Great case study on why bearish headlines and articles get so many more hits and views. Human ego likes the idea of sounding "smart and contrarian" more than making money
    • AG
      Asim G.
      28 August 2018 @ 19:17
      Great point, Chris; totally agree with you.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    28 August 2018 @ 16:10
    Just another borker/asset gatherer. No skepticism, not even a whiff. LOL
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    28 August 2018 @ 14:55
    I do not mind if Mr Purves is bullish on the S&P, but I missed the lack of substance in his arguments. I perceived it very superficial (for example his valuation argument ao.). I would expect more from trade ideas, ie a unique idea and 2-3 strong and maybe less considered arguments why to buy/short asset xyz.
  • AC
    Avi C.
    28 August 2018 @ 11:54
    Really??? buy buy buy ? Is this what we waited to hear from this chief Uber extra super strategist. Are we that dumb that we need another excuse, from well...another market cheerleader to buy the market yet again because the sky looks bright and because the future is what the future was. This guys and other in the end are a group of PR strategist for the markets. If this guy has a really good recommendation in his sleeve, he is surely not sharing it with us so really what is the point of bringing him around?
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      28 August 2018 @ 14:37
      I Learn to learn larger picture than just a stock specific recommendation 😂😂
    • LJ
      Lucille J.
      28 August 2018 @ 22:14
      I agree, Well said