Car Stocks to Reverse?

Published on
May 22nd, 2018
Topic
US Economy, Trading
Duration
9 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Car Stocks to Reverse?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Max Wolff

Published on: May 22nd, 2018 • Duration: 9 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: US Economy, Trading

Max Wolff, chief economist at The Phoenix Group, revisits his short trade on GM. He explains why he still likes betting against the auto giant in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on May 17, 2018.

Comments

  • JC
    Joseph C.
    23 May 2018 @ 19:30
    I think it is important to remember that the majority of the car-buying American public are hearing about how great the economy is as they see unemployment at an all-time low. The average car buyer doesn't understand exactly what rising rates do/how credit cycles end, and is more focused on whether they can afford a new, slightly higher, car payment after turning in their most recent lease (a huge wave of leases begin rolling off in 2018-2020). I believe GM and all automakers will see a year of earnings surprises due to the exuberance seen in the economy, and then all the factors mentioned in this conversation will come to light.
  • FH
    Frank H.
    22 May 2018 @ 23:57
    Second video I have seen from this guy. Don’t trust investments advice based on political bias.
  • F
    Floyd .
    22 May 2018 @ 22:31
    Certainly would not buy the stock,old adage only buy auto stocks when they don't have a P/E(no earnings) but discretionary stocks looking pretty strong for now. Short on a weaker chart/market /economy.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    22 May 2018 @ 20:16
    Like Max's narrative, but the chart looks like a better entry is building a short position between 40-42. Thoughts?
  • AK
    Alvin K.
    22 May 2018 @ 19:59
    As this was taped on May 17, the Chinese government has just lowered its import tariffs on cars from 25 to 15%. Would it still be wise to short GM given this new exogenous factor?
  • TQ
    Tom Q.
    22 May 2018 @ 19:25
    Max Wolff, I fade your idea in the short term. The ISM is showing me a strong uptrend in transportation production and new orders. Also, prices increase for raw materials in this sector is low, (if anyone knows why please let me know). In the long term I do certainly agree with your view. Tom
  • JH
    Jon H.
    22 May 2018 @ 19:18
    I think RV's reporters should challenge the trader's trade ideas more. If they had confronted this trader with some of the relevant comments below, this had become even more useful.
  • JH
    Jon H.
    22 May 2018 @ 19:11
    I'll give both the trader and Real Vision credit for revisiting the trade idea. I learnt a lot from that.
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    22 May 2018 @ 18:54
    He doesn't acknowledge GM's push into Autonomous ride share set to be rolled out in 2019. That is not being modeled into the stock at all. He also doesn't factor in, it seems to me, that the price and FCF yield factor in a great deal of the headwinds he lays out.
    • RE
      Richard E. | Contributor
      31 May 2018 @ 13:05
      it seems Softbank has just validated their push into Autonomous giving it an $11.5bb value vs. 0 previously. Just sayin'
  • SS
    Sophocles S.
    22 May 2018 @ 14:14
    Why not jut put the stop at $40 (just above last swing high)?
  • CA
    Craig A.
    22 May 2018 @ 11:45
    How can he be advocating to short GM when its trading at around 5pe & its estimated growth YoY is 15%. Even with the peak auto sales, it seems way too risky to short this. This is way more likely a long than a short.
  • SJ
    Stefan J.
    22 May 2018 @ 10:09
    I like the fact that RV is revisiting ideas. I would like to see some sort of an accountable track record going back some time and also into the future to gauge the performance of these ideas.
    • CM
      Carlos M.
      22 May 2018 @ 10:21
      Agreed it would be interesting to have some sort of performance metric.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      22 May 2018 @ 17:40
      Agree
    • DM
      Dan M.
      27 May 2018 @ 18:18
      Agree, but truly gauging performance will be difficult with only a very small number of data points.
    • CJ
      Craig J.
      15 June 2018 @ 10:32
      Keep a spreadsheet

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