Content is King

Published on
February 18th, 2019
Duration
18 minutes

Content is King

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring David Trainer

Published on: February 18th, 2019 • Duration: 18 minutes

David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, returns to Real Vision to lay out his bullish thesis on Disney. He highlights the issues facing Netflix and explains why he thinks Disney’s stock is poised for solid gains in the years to come, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on February 14, 2019.

Comments

  • HA
    Heikki A.
    20 February 2019 @ 12:19
    Look at: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2018&p=.htm Positions 1,2,3,5,6,9,10,11 are Disney IPs It is scary how well they are doing. The risk is in trends shifting and of course new generations might consume less mega productions and IPs. Basically on the movie front they are already doing "so well" that room for growth is almost non existent. The streaming is the natural place to look for growth but netflix has good footing there (even if the business is not sustainable).
  • OC
    OTTO C.
    20 February 2019 @ 05:33
    I do agree with bubble on NFLX
  • OC
    OTTO C.
    20 February 2019 @ 05:30
    Stars Wars, really? That's been history for a long time. Disney target audience is the youth but the comments from the youth are very negative about watching so many remakes of the same old super hero themes.
    • HA
      Heikki A.
      20 February 2019 @ 12:14
      super heros feel like they are over done. But that has been the feeling since early 2000s. Market says they are still doing fine. Look at: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2018&p=.htm Positions 1,2,3,5,6,9,10,11 are Disney IPs It is scary how well they are doing. The risk is in trends shifting and of course new generations might consume less mega productions and IPs.
  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    19 February 2019 @ 23:10
    I agree with pretty much everything, but was disappointed that the low valuation wasn't examined in greater depth. What will be the catalyst that propels the shares to $170 in a few years? Disney has unfortunately been trading sideways for a long time and I'm not sure the strong 2019 film slate is going to be enough for a $50+ gain anytime within the next couple years.
  • dd
    david d.
    19 February 2019 @ 10:09
    Disney made ESPN SJW. Made marvel comics SJW. Made Starwars SJW. Great job Disney, I am so bullish.
  • JW
    Jonathan W.
    19 February 2019 @ 01:53
    I have a couple things to add that weren’t covered. First, on the parks side, I’d highlight the new Star Wars lands under construction. Everyone expects significant attendance increases when they open, beginning with Disneyland this summer and Disney World towards the end of the year. They’ve also got new hotels on the way and brand new attractions in the works. Disney World’s 50th anniversary will be in 2021 and they expect increased attendance from that as well. Overall, there are a lot reasons to be positive about this side of the business. On the risk side, any recession could significantly challenge the parks business. I remember the deep discounts they had to give to get people into the parks during the last recession. That’s something to be mindful of if things turn south in the economy.
  • CH
    Colin H.
    18 February 2019 @ 20:38
    I'm bullish too but I dunno if you need 20 mins for this trade idea. Just my 2c, not trying to offend.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      19 February 2019 @ 05:30
      the details help
  • TE
    Tito E.
    18 February 2019 @ 18:29
    Agree about Netflix. But perhaps even this is flogging a dying horse. Tired superhero and animated features (all of which are variations on exactly the same formula). Tacky theme parks and cheaply made (but expensive to buy) merchandise? Is all of this really 'high quality content'? Historically this has been a superb stock to town. I just wonder now that people have more choices...
    • TE
      Tito E.
      18 February 2019 @ 18:31
      Netflix bad != Disney good
  • LI
    Lorrie I.
    18 February 2019 @ 13:26
    How will the recent acquisition of FOX going to affect Disney’s B/S, esp the debt aspect? Thx
    • RK
      Roger K.
      18 February 2019 @ 23:03
      @Justin, should have asked about the Debt levels of the company, given the fact the corporate debt is a time bomb at the moment.
  • PV
    P V.
    18 February 2019 @ 09:57
    Excellent investment case for the mouse house. I am surprised he did not mentioned the possibility of DIS becoming at some point an M&A target. As AAPL is floundering and needs a second act asap, DIS could be a consideration to to give AAPL's content play a leg up. Furthermore the relationship w/DIS is traditionally reasonably "warm" with the JOBS estate owning a meaningful chunk of of shares from the PIXAR acquisition.
    • BB
      Benjamin B.
      19 February 2019 @ 23:06
      The companies market caps are similar. Seems like a big stretch.