US recession ahead in about a year or so?

Thumbs up, as deserved.

Congratulations! If the euro breaks Will support hold at 113.05 or will 1.11 happen next. IF the latter breaks, then there's not much but air until 103-105.

Nailed it.

The starting or prior probability (a term from Bayesian probability updating which all traders should be using, see book Superforecasting inter alia) for a 5% up move within 6mths in DX is 29% (this is just counting all the 1-6mth rates of change instances in dly data since 1971 which are >5%). Sure, US growth will outperform EZ but how much? - the US ISM has very probably topped months ago. Also he needs to mention relative inflation (US will be higher). And the expected FFR hike path can easily slow/ top out if the current global and US PMI slowdown continues. My assessment doesn't see any compelling evidence getting this probability of a 5% rally in DX higher than its start point, instead I have reduced it further. Sideways is much more likely.
As far as his comment "you need to be in a position in the markets if you want to make money" - shocking. The wise will tell you to manage risk first and last.

... agree with the short EUR thesis in general. The theme is close to me - I must be the biggest EUR bear (was shorting EUR when it was hitting 1.5 and it was a very contrarian idea at that time).
Dollar has a strong fundamental macro tailwind indeed. The horizon is about right for this trade (3 months) since after that we have the mid-term elections in the US. There we could see a dramatic political shift towards the mobilizing populist left wing which could initiate an unwind of this trend.

Wow. The dollar is clearly completing a 5-wave impulse since Feb in a BEAR market rally against its primary downtrend since topping in Dec 2016. The 95.5 handled hasn't been breached and establishes that clearly the primary trend in the dollar remains bearish.

Another beating yet again today for the recently beleaguered dollar. A bearish key reversal no less. Get used to them. Lots more ahead. Dollar going down, down, down.

Agree with the general thesis, but would personally amend Joseph's risk bracket (s1.15x's, t1.10, stop 1.1725) as it's a strong candidate to get shook out before a 1.15 failure. Why not just wait for a significant hard volume (6E) break of 1.15, sell-stop layer 1 on initial waterfall, add layer 2 on any retrace that gets within 50 pip of break(ttop 1.690, target 1.115). Trade 2, single layer short of anything above 1.145 on a retrace from 1.11-1.12 zone.

I've been hearing this for years how the euro is going to blow up. Maybe someday, but with the US debt ballon floating away into the sky, like Elon's Tesla, I've been doing well buying euro dips. Currencies use to be the best trending markets but no the seem to be stuck. Something got to give, maybe Trump gets his way again and it's the dollar.

Good trade idea. Euro seems to be blowing through the Demark indicators and the H&S pattern seems to be pretty well baked. Sentiment so high for the USD though right now..but sentiment doesn't do much on its own. EUO a good bet as we head into the Fall and we continue to see more EM problems

I know nothing about technical analysis. But doesn't the chart of USD/EUR show a head-and-shoulders suggestive of an imminent strengthening of the euro?