Fertile for Profits?

Featuring Peter Boockvar

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of the Boock Report, lays out a bullish trade on agriculture. He explains why potash and phosphate fertilizer company Mosaic is well-positioned, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on May 21, 2018.

Published on
24 May, 2018
Topic
Trading, Micro
Duration
11 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
9

Comments

  • TK

    Tadej K.

    27 5 2018 18:29

    0       0

    Well, the missed point is the state of fertilizers supply. The boom that`s happend more than a decade ago (when MOS has reached bubblish 160 mark, which can not be seriously used to discuss how cheap now MOS stock is) has caused a massive overinvestment by fertilizer companies (old and new) and that has resulted in increased supply (the most in potash where a disintegration of Uralkali`s cartel has also played large rolle, but also for nitrogen and phosphate) which brought prices of fertilizers down in recent years and crushed Mosaic and many other fertilizer producer`s stock prices. And in this video mr Boockvar didnt realy address this crucial topic. I dont think that being long MOS is a bad investment, but mr Boockvar`s argument sounds quite superficial.

  • CR

    Cristian R.

    25 5 2018 10:07

    1       0

    Great idea and solid reasoning. The best Trade Idea video I've seen.

    • SS

      Sophocles S.

      25 5 2018 19:23

      0       0

      Indeed. This and TSLA which everyone knew though ;)

  • TP

    Tom P.

    24 5 2018 21:22

    0       0

    This isn't my market. But I recognise Mosiac as an old favorite for HF punters back in the day. I would have thought that branded food companies would have more to gain from this thesis than the raw producers. More juice in the lemon.

    • TP

      Tom P.

      24 5 2018 21:22

      0       0

      sorry, for example Nestle.

  • BD

    Bruce D.

    24 5 2018 12:04

    1       0

    Great idea! Correlates very well with the action in DBA.

    • JM

      John M.

      24 5 2018 20:59

      0       0

      I like the idea too but not really as a trade (the stock has move up $4 in the past two months). I like it as a longer term investment due to favourable commodity cycle.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    24 5 2018 10:06

    5       0

    Nitrogen fertilizer production uses large amounts of natural gas and some coal, and can account for more than 50 per cent of total energy use in commercial agriculture. Oil accounts for between 30 and 75 per cent of energy inputs of UK agriculture, depending on the cropping system.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    24 5 2018 09:56

    2       0

    How does higher oil prices impact margins for fertilizer producers? Isn't it a major cost input?

    • SH

      Steve H.

      24 5 2018 16:55

      1       0

      Decent point, but perhaps:

      1. Oil might have been hedged.

      2. Oil is (potentially) topping whilst ags and fertilizers are now just beginning their run (i.e., costs are already in, but revenue increases are yet to come).

      Even if that's all bunkum, the chart has been looking good as a basing pattern since the turn of the year and still looks to be well worth a shot bearing in mind the risk:reward trade-off being offered by available levels.