Global Growth Expectations

Published on
October 15th, 2018
Topic
Trading, Macro, US Dollar
Duration
11 minutes
Asset class
Currencies

Global Growth Expectations

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Chad Morganlander

Published on: October 15th, 2018 • Duration: 11 minutes • Asset Class: Currencies • Topic: Trading, Macro, US Dollar

Will the U.S. continue to outperform global markets? Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors reviews the macro landscape to answer this question. He lays out his thesis and discusses which trade to make, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on October 11, 2018.

Comments

  • BC
    Bryan C.
    17 October 2018 @ 11:46
    Good insights on global economies and the global credit markets. Not sure that the trade recommendation is the best way to express that view.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    15 October 2018 @ 23:42
    Everyone on the same side of the boat now???
    • DR
      David R.
      15 October 2018 @ 23:59
      Pretty much. Macros guys and retail traders all back in with reckless abandon. Stats show the moms & pops are more into US stocks than anytime in history for any asset class. Including housing before its huge bust. Same dance, different song. This time, the average Joe is levered up into stocks and using it as an ATM like they did their house last decade until that blew up. Thing is, stocks can wipe you out a LOT faster than housing as stocks move much faster, and especially so today with the instant dissemination of information. US stocks could conceivably fall 95% in merely a few minutes, which would've been impossible previously. The passive investing and ETF phenom, with gross liquidity mismatch, is like jet fuel on a runway in advance of an out-of-control forest fire.... ka-BOOM!!!
  • NA
    N A.
    15 October 2018 @ 11:10
    Long USD, Yippee ki-yay [expletive]. Seems like every macro fund and macro advisor is long USD and often in the same way.
    • DR
      David R.
      15 October 2018 @ 18:02
      Yep, just like they were Jan 1, 2017 before USD plunged 20% in a year. This next major wave, beginning shortly, technically should be an even deeper plunge for USD. It's great to see all these guys together on one side of the boat, as they'll all be wrong AGAIN, like happens in every heavily crowded position.
    • DR
      David R.
      15 October 2018 @ 18:04
      EURUSD remains bullish above 1.143, neutral between 1.1285-1.143 and bearish only below 1.1285 (unlikely).
    • DS
      David S.
      16 October 2018 @ 00:30
      Sometimes consensus is correct in the near-term. When consensus makes it too high or too low we can make money. Fundamentals still seem to be driving the dollar up. The $DXY in 1994 about the same as now near 95; ranging from a high about 120 to a low about 74. Lots of room to make and lose money since 1994. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      16 October 2018 @ 16:36
      'Cept that the dollar has in fact been going down, not up, whether for the last 2 days, 2 months or 2 years. Today it's down against virtually everything and gathering both momentum and breadth to the downside. More to come - and soon. BTW the DXY is a poor index because of its concentration so some other, more broadly distributed indices are more accurate which quite portray the bearish Weak Dollar trend overall. I don't care much about fundamentals as every day they cite something different and it's all so subjective, but the incomparable Juliette DeClerq (owner of JDI Research and a must-hear on MacroVoices), seems to have nailed it last spring that the dollar would dead-cat bounce thru the summer but fall apart starting this autumn as the enormous, unworkable US twin deficits begin to take down USD and the US economy. And indeed the dollar has turned down since latter summer and US data has started to sour too. Also watch the Gold market for a tell just in case.
    • DR
      David R.
      16 October 2018 @ 16:45
      Actually $DXY reached 164.72 in February 1985. The dollar has been in a bearish supercycle ever since, making a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The last high near 104 was 22 months ago, before plunging below 89 earlier this year. No doubt the dollar will be making more new lows before long, and won't reach 165 again in our lifetime, if ever. The failed dollar "breakout" this summer, which didn't even retrace to the 618 fib pt, technically proves the dollar rally in spring-summer of 2018 was a bear rally within a primary downtrend. As the dollar failed to even retrace back to the critical 99-100 pt. I except the dollar to have one more pop to challenge that level and at best perhaps break it marginally, before its next big motive wave collapse thereafter.

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