Gold in Trouble?

Published on
26 September, 2018
Gold, Trading, Commodities
5 minutes
Asset class

Gold in Trouble?

Featuring Louise Yamada

Louise Yamada, managing director of LY Advisors, says gold bulls have it all wrong. She reviews one of the most important ratios for the yellow metal, and key levels to watch out for, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on September 20, 2018.

Published on
26 September, 2018
Gold, Trading, Commodities
5 minutes
Asset class


  • CL

    Chris L.

    27 10 2018 23:29

    1       0

    Reading comments on gold is such a hoot. I laugh a bit. Sure, at some point, gold will have its day. But, people use this as an excuse not to understand how gold moves, why it moves, and what's coming. As gold bugs stare at M1 charts, gold continues to fall.

    Will Peter Schiff be right in the end? Maybe, but does loosing money for a decade provide any solace? Money you can always make up, but time once lost is gone for good.

  • RM

    Ross M.

    13 10 2018 00:32

    0       1

    You can listen to all the experts but in the end a dash of common sense will prevail. The fact that Gold is so scarce alone is the clue these experts seem to miss while debt is has and continues to grow exponentially. The beauty of gold is you can get your timing wrong but in the long run it will out perform and protect.

  • JM

    Jason M.

    29 9 2018 00:10

    4       3

    "In price there is knowledge" Well....In fundamentals there is far more knowledge. Ask anyone investing in 1999-2000. This is a terrible set-up for US equities here. QT, Rates higher, oil higher, sky high valuations vs history and vs overseas markets....look at equity market valuation metrics (not the Dow/Gold ratio). If Republicans lose the House things will get pretty shaky. Fear will rise again. Oh...and I heard there was immense geopolitical disruption happening out there somewhere as well...but we are the "exceptional nation" so why care? Again, saw all of this in 1999...with a lot less overall debt on the system then. Gold fell dramatically in the 90s due to massive central bank selling....opposite is happening today....and China and India are geometrically more important to the gold price this time around. I don't have all the answers on gold but don't look back at bubble charts and assume we are in the same world. If you are a USD based investor and you don't own some gold here you are just drinking the Kool-Aid.

  • KB

    Kirk B.

    28 9 2018 22:49

    1       0

    Excellent short-term counterpoint to the narratives (such as Weldon's) that gold is going much higher. Like many, I see investment in gold as insurance with it constituting an important 5% (to 10%) portfolio allocation. If Ms. Yamada is correct that the price of gold could drop well under $1,200, that would present an excellent opportune time to buy more insurance, maintaining the desired portfolio allocation.

  • RE

    Renato E.

    27 9 2018 19:48

    1       1

    As long as you see gold as an insurance rather than an investment, it doesn't matter when you buy it (physical, of course). Also, there is a huge difference between the price of gold and the value of gold.

  • tk

    theo k.

    27 9 2018 09:43

    8       8

    Can I just say that Louise Yamada is the best guest that RV ever hosted. Clear and concise and has a view supported by technicals instead of a faith-based process like 98% of the other guests.

  • RK

    Roger K.

    27 9 2018 08:02

    0       0

    Certainly useful video , Thank you!

  • MZ

    Martin Z.

    27 9 2018 05:56

    1       0

    It's a short term trade (or if you prefer, non-trade) idea, guys. She specifically stated that she has no view on the macro picture or fundamentals, so she's not threatening in any way the LT bull case for gold. That said, I don't hold gold for profit but for insurance, and the equities market could break down (or even collapse?) at any time, negating her thesis overnight. I watched this mainly because of the somewhat misleading title, but even if I was trading, I wouldn't I risk shorting gold and keeping my fingers crossed that "things are different his time."

  • EF

    Eric F.

    27 9 2018 02:58

    3       0

    Good video, liked it and disagree with negative comments below. Makes me think that gold will have its day, but just not now or the near future.

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    27 9 2018 01:24

    6       0

    I know of Yamada’s work. She is brilliant with long term charts. Please have her for a full hour or so of a chart show and tell. That would be a great presentation.

  • ww

    will w.

    27 9 2018 00:13

    4       0

    AWESOME, highly thought-provoking presentation!!!
    For some time now (@ least several years) i've been concerned about Gold's failure to really show sustained strength. I have to wonder if something about the foundational bull case hypotheses for Gold (and PMs in general (which hypotheses i have LONG subscribed to) is invalid under present circumstances. More & more, i'm afraid the answer to that question is YES. :(

    This brief intro to Ms Yamada makes me want to hear a LOT more from her - a one-hour interview would be a good start. THANKS, RV!

  • my

    markettaker y.

    26 9 2018 23:33

    5       3

    This old woman fascinates me, just from the brief appearance here. Can we please get her back for the full Real Vision treatment? I feel like there is a great deal going on behind the scenes in her mind and her analysis, just based on this fragment. I want the full story. I feel like she has a great deal to teach.

  • dw

    douglas w.

    26 9 2018 21:49

    4       0

    I think Chartists would agree that over 1225 with momentum would bring in 1250 then 1280-1300. These moves are legitimate and can make swing traders profits. Time to bring Michael Oliver back his techinical analysis is usually on point.

  • F

    Floyd .

    26 9 2018 21:06

    10       1

    To those being critical of Louise's opinion,it is not a short term trading idea as many others are is suggesting. Louise identifies longer term trend changes that you can play/invest for a cycle or secular trend. By the same token as others here have stated, staying away from an asset class or security until a clearer trend develops is just common sense and good discipline.

  • KF

    Ken F.

    26 9 2018 20:43

    4       0

    file under worthless opinion.

    Louise Yamada predicts $5200 gold by 2018

  • DS

    David S.

    26 9 2018 19:00

    5       1

    Excellent interview. Ms. Yamada stated succinctly that there is no trend in gold for now. From her point of view when there is no trend, she cannot predict future prices from her charts. She is not disagreeing with other perspectives but presenting her opinion as a chartist. DLS

  • MH

    Marco H.

    26 9 2018 18:59

    8       0

    Nice to see the legend Louise Yamada on RealVision. The technical story is logical but I stick to my holdings.
    Furthermore: Justine is delivering great interviews. She is well prepared and engages in a conversation rather than firing off a list with questions. Love to see her do a longer interview.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    26 9 2018 18:36

    2       1

    Thank you for including a contrary opinion. It reinforces my belief in gold though even more. She seems like a lovely lady.

  • CM

    Christopher M.

    26 9 2018 17:59

    2       0

    RV can't side too much for the bull case. There have been several videos positive gold over the last 2-3wks. A balanced view perhaps.

  • GS

    G S.

    26 9 2018 17:38

    4       4

    What a waist of 5 min.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    26 9 2018 17:33

    9       0

    This was surprisingly rudimentary in its analysis, even for 5 min in length. Was expecting a stronger case. Greg Weldon’s case is MUCH stronger and more rigorously presented. I know who my money is on

  • rr

    rlw r.

    26 9 2018 16:30

    6       0

    The ratio of Up - Down Thumbs is a great sentiment read.
    A lot of folks don’t like hearing the ‘other’ side of their trade.
    All the more reason - to consider the bear case.

  • MF

    Michael F.

    26 9 2018 16:19

    3       0

    Gold has been in trouble for at least 5 years, she makes some great points (she usually does). That said her opinion aligns rather nicely with the gold bull case as well. The theme I heard was A trend lasts until it doesn't. Thank you RVTV.

  • CR

    Carmen R.

    26 9 2018 16:08

    2       0

    "Louise likes to bet against gold when it breaks decisively breaks $1200" look at the chart at the end of the video when that statement was made. If you bet against it every time it broke that threshold you've had a very poor performance since 2015.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    26 9 2018 15:39

    4       1

    Louis, please let us know immediately when you see the TOP in equities!!! OMG, what the hell is going on with this Trading Ideas program? Dump it!

  • MB

    Markus B.

    26 9 2018 14:21

    2       0

    The chart should have had a longer dated time frame. The yellow metal peaked in 09/2011 and the period Louise is referring to is most probably a time window that is carving out a major lt bottom. Ups and downs are a part of this process, so nothing unusual. Louise is correct by watching the $1'365 - $ 1'400 area for a potential breakout. Being bullish on US equities is like dancing to the wonderful tunes of an orchestra on the deck of the Titanic, bon voyage and safe passage.

  • DR

    David R.

    26 9 2018 12:59

    2       0

    Yep, it's pretty clear that gold is in a larger degree 2nd wave down retracing most of its 1st wave up of 2016. It *looks* like this 2nd wave down may indeed need one more downward leg to complete. Then a very powerful 3rd wave impulse higher will unfold - likely coinciding with the collapse of USD and US stocks. Already on the horizon. Retail investors will get wiped-out again (for the 3rd time in under 20 yrs). The smart money has left or is soon leaving the US stock market casino.

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    26 9 2018 10:48

    1       0

    The Dow-to-gold ratio absolutely tanked in the 1970's....the last time we had stagflation. Could the US-China Trade War cause higher prices and lower volumes? This is called Stagflation

  • PM

    Paul M.

    26 9 2018 10:46

    1       0

    How is equities priced in gold a significant momentum indicator? How can you compare equities in 1929 to today? I mean this 'analysis' is about the silliest take on gold I've seen yet. What about another ratio - global fiat money supply to gold in weight? It tells you a completely different story. Just because equities are high right now, does not mean A) they are going higher and B) gold in $-terms is going lower.

  • lc

    lynn c.

    26 9 2018 10:39

    7       12

    There was no trade presented here. Although I unfortunately agree with the analysis (I'm a huge long term gold bull), saying not to buy something is not a trade idea.