Gold’s Time to Shine?

Published on
March 21st, 2019
Duration
16 minutes

Gold’s Time to Shine?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Christophe Ollari

Published on: March 21st, 2019 • Duration: 16 minutes

Christophe Ollari of Ollari Consulting returns to Real Vision to explain why it’s finally time for the yellow metal to break out to the upside. He reviews the bullish developments from both a fundamental & technical perspective, and discusses key levels to watch out for, in this interview with Roger Hirst. Filmed on March 19, 2019 in London.

Comments

  • SL
    Simon L.
    12 August 2019 @ 01:13
    take profit reached ! That was a really nice trade :)
  • RS
    Robert S.
    27 March 2019 @ 06:57
    What.is he saying? :-))
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    25 March 2019 @ 06:04
    I would like to hear if Christoffe see historical seasonality from March to August not interfering with his bullishness? I liked his thesis but we have a negative seasonality for Gold prices in the coming few months. About same time last year RV Trade ideas issued few interviews all being bullish and all proved wrong last year. Dina mics might be different this year but again we better into this negative seasonality for now ... would be good to know how Christoffe factors this into his ideas.
    • CO
      Christophe O. | Contributor
      26 March 2019 @ 11:26
      This is absolutely true that, when looking at the historical seasonality, March and May (and then to a certain extent June) are the worse months for Gold. But I think that the ongoing CBs purchase might act as a buffer against the negative seasonality. More importantly, the macro dynamic has completely changed compared to last year as the FED under Powell was starting a "proper" tightening cycle after what could have been described as the "Beautiful Normalization" Made in Yellen. Between the end of February (1st Powell Testimony) and the peak of the fear regarding the FED's tightening cycle, US 5yrs Real Yields rose by almost 70bps. The macro picture has dramatically reversed and has become supportive for precious metals. Reducing de facto the seasonality headwinds.
    • DY
      Dmytro Y.
      27 March 2019 @ 01:29
      Thank you Christoffe. The fact that only very few CB are buying gold, namely RUSSIA, China, Kazakhstan, and none of western CB buy gold, Japan does not buy it, is it good enough to push gold prices higher? I mean to say only a handful of banks buy it for half political purposes (not necessarily monetary purposes) and most of CB don’t buy. The purchase is concentrated in the hands of very few. It is not a global phenomena. I wonder if such concentrated purchase is a good enough and substantial enough. If they stop one day (due to political or domestic issues) then what’s going to happen to gold prices. Or if China and Russia have enough then there is no CB buying gold...??
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    24 March 2019 @ 10:16
    Solid reasoning by Christophe, thank you. I would love to know Christophe's view of the USD in the next year to go along with his gold view. One can no longer assume stronger gold/weaker dollar
  • GG
    Gary G.
    22 March 2019 @ 05:08
    Neh. I can see gold going to $800sh!!
  • DS
    David S.
    21 March 2019 @ 21:34
    Mr. Olliari: "But what I know as well that central banks are well aware that QE didn't generate inflation, real inflation. QE didn't manage to boost the real economy." Excellent statement about the real economy. I think that QE inflated the stock market along with all the stock buybacks. DLS
  • VM
    Vash M.
    21 March 2019 @ 21:01
    Can someone clarify which EMAs he's referring to? Trying to replicate the charts myself and I seem to be doing something wrong cause mine are not matching up.
    • RS
      Roger S.
      21 March 2019 @ 22:19
      My chart of a gold futures unadjusted continuous contract with a simple 50 & 200 day moving averages look the same as his.
    • VM
      Vash M.
      22 March 2019 @ 00:36
      The simples match for me as well but I'm wondering about the EMA chart at 5:07. What time interval is that? And I believe he says the 13 and the 25 as the EMAs but I'm not sure.
    • AG
      Abhimanyu G.
      25 March 2019 @ 08:12
      may be the weekly 13 and 25 ema. would be great if someone from RV could confirm this. also, it mentioned that the bullish cross on the ema has only happened 7 times since 1983. are there any conditions to the bullish cross? having eyeballed the chart seems like this has happened more than 7 times. thanks!
  • DS
    David S.
    21 March 2019 @ 21:00
    Very good to see Mr. Ollari back on RVTV. I added a little gold today. Thanks. DLS
    • NF
      Nicholas F.
      26 March 2019 @ 17:40
      David, I agree great to see Mr. Ollari back in action. Quick question, do you buy physical or synthetic exposure( don't feel obligated to answer, not trying to pry)? After listening/reading Simon Mikhailovich, who gives great color and discusses the absurdity with all the hoops needed to jump through in order to attain the physical and I understand the vast problems associate with the ETF scene as well. I just think there are ways (gold minors ect..) I may be missing in order to properly allocate to the metal. Thanks in advance for any color you can share.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 April 2019 @ 04:50
      Nicholas F. - Sorry I did not see your question earlier. Today I added to AAAU the Perth Government ETF. I sometimes play with GLD for the short-run trades. I have a little physical gold. If gold takes off, a little will balance other investments. I am 73 and just trade for fun. Most of my portfolio is in short-term US treasuries, as my expenses and income are in line. I have only one real winner Oxford Biomedica thanks to Mr. Diggle. Since we can buy and sell gold, digital and physical, I look at gold as a non-fiat currency trading daily in the FX market. I do feel that we will have time to jump in if the price of gold starts to accelerate. DLS
    • NF
      Nicholas F.
      10 May 2019 @ 21:51
      David, my apologies for the late reply. I really appreciate you sharing your insights and how are you play the metal allocation in your portfolio. Good stuff! Great work on Oxford, mr. Diggle is fascinating and a very astute investor. Enjoy Reading your comments across the platform, thanks!
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    21 March 2019 @ 20:00
    Hmmm ... no mention of JPMorgan or the price suppression scheme. Trying to understand the gold or silver markets without factoring in the influence of the manipulators is like trying to understand politics without factoring in the influence of lobbyists and big money donors. In other words, you'd be ignoring the 9,600 pound elephant in the room. The only difference is what the lobbyists and pay-to-play donors are doing isn't illegal. What the naked short sellers are doing on the Comex most certainly is. But they do it at the behest of, or at least with the consent of, the ESF and the so-called regulators, so they're able to operate with complete impunity. Nice work if you can get it ... and extremely profitable "work" at that. And please ... Trying to glean tradeable signals from the charts of a rigged market is absurd on its face ... and there has never been a market that's more rigged.
    • DS
      David S.
      21 March 2019 @ 20:58
      Mr. Ollari is a very smart, experienced trader. I am sure he is aware the possible problems that you suggest. CBs are nevertheless buying gold. DLS
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      22 March 2019 @ 15:15
      I could not agree with more with you Thomas, but the day will come when the bullion banks and their puppeteers will lose control of the manipulation, possibly as a result of China and Russia holding all the golden aces (as well as most of the real gold!), and they will have to capitulate, regardless of their ability to go short nakedly on Comex.
  • BD
    Bhargav D.
    21 March 2019 @ 14:37
    Any recommendations on how to make the trade in India? Buy a gold ETF or Gold Bond or physical gold or any other instrument?
    • TR
      Travis R.
      21 March 2019 @ 20:34
      Buy Physical. Only buy from reputable dealer. Only buy coins from major internationally respected mints.
    • BD
      Bhargav D.
      22 March 2019 @ 16:05
      Thanks a lot! :)
  • MH
    Michael H.
    21 March 2019 @ 12:36
    Very Timely....Gold bullish now in all currencies...good work
    • lD
      lance D.
      21 March 2019 @ 14:22
      gold going a lot lower first but we have had plenty of info surrounding gold on rvtv so i like to think we all started small gold positions a few months back and trade around that position if thats ya handbag
    • DS
      David S.
      22 March 2019 @ 03:38
      How low do you think it will go first?DLS
  • SS
    Steve S.
    21 March 2019 @ 11:11
    For cautious investors - Buy GLD For conservative investors - GDX For aggressive/adventurous investors - GDXJ Personally I've been in GDX at the $20.75 level.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      21 March 2019 @ 11:14
      I also have a small speculative position in Polymetal International listed in London as a play on Silver and Gold. Silver should start to outperform Gold going forward. The Gold/Silver ratio is at high levels and should reduce over time.
    • lD
      lance D.
      21 March 2019 @ 14:19
      BUY IEF as an alternative
  • LC
    Lloyd C.
    21 March 2019 @ 09:38
    Observation that Central Banks must be supportive of general asset prices, thus driving Gold prices makes a lot of sense.
    • JM
      Jon M.
      22 March 2019 @ 16:17
      With gold now a tier l asset, would that imply a vested interest in the CB’s protecting their new interests in the gold position?