Hot Chocolate!

Featuring Nick Colas

Nick Colas of DataTrek Research sniffs opportunity in cocoa futures. He presents a trade on the relevant ETF in this interview with Alyona Minkovski. Filmed on April 23.

Published on
27 April, 2018
Topic
Trading, ETF
Duration
8 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
39

Comments

  • MD

    Matt D.

    6 6 2018 03:29

    0       0

    This guy had terrible timing. However, we're likely at a low-risk entry here now near $27 for a trade back to the low $30s based on technicals alone. Technical Reasons: RSI at 26, testing the 200 day moving average support, backtesting the 2017 basing pattern neckline that lead to the 2018 breakout, and on top of it all, a Demark countdown 13 exhaustion will likely trigger tomorrow. I held off on buying and this is the entry opportunity I was waiting for. Limit order set for $27. Stop loss under $26. Offers a minimum 3:1 reward/risk IMO.

  • JO

    Jens O.

    3 6 2018 04:38

    2       0

    Revisted June 3rd: You nailed the price top (in most CC futures) to the day! Since then Future markets are down ~ 20%, forming a bearish pattern (potentially a gigantic Head & Shoulder) ... Some guys below gave a fair warning, great ... Just, where is the innovation of this series? It's definitely not in bringing mediocre analyses from print to video ...

  • JP

    John P.

    2 5 2018 03:14

    1       0

    This trade has run most it's course but you can still get a nice 5-10% without risking too much. It's certainly a harder and riskier trade than the other's featured thus far. What hasn't been mentioned on the trading clips (but was in other long form videos/think tank) is the general bull market occurring in grains right now.

  • NT

    Nicholas T.

    1 5 2018 10:47

    4       0

    Do not listen to this guy. He has no idea what he’s talking about. The price has gone up 50%. It’s been a great trade but the main part is OVER. For a retail trader, the risk/reward is less appealing. If you want to own it, wait for a significant sell off and buy a dip. You will need a weather story to propel demand over 3,000 and keep it there. Demand growth will slow over 3000 on a lagged basis. Cocoa demand is very price sensitive with a time lag.

  • CL

    Claus L.

    1 5 2018 09:28

    2       1

    It is a bit of a pity that RealVision has decided to go down the road of giving trading tips......
    Long cocoa? Now? On the basis of very long-term weather forecasts on the Ivory Coast and that no-one apparently follows cocoa? Really?
    If I look at open interest, CFTC-reported trader positioning, angle of ascent of the latest price-move, money flow indicators - well, if anything, they give signals that any longs better leave the party now and get ready for a serious retracement, a medium-timeframe shorting opportunity.

  • F

    Floyd .

    30 4 2018 21:26

    0       0

    not bad information but late to this idea

  • AG

    Asim G.

    30 4 2018 20:05

    1       0

    How is this a trade idea? This is something I would expect in a Fortune magazine or Wall Street Journal side article... At this point, given the parabolic move, short cocoa with a stop is better than a long trade... jeez.

  • JU

    Jay U.

    29 4 2018 05:32

    0       0

    Would be interested to dig a little deeper into the fundamentals of cocoa. Anyone know any good resources?

  • AG

    Anubhav G.

    28 4 2018 08:22

    2       0

    This is mentioned in 20/20 as well (https://www.realvision.com/free-stuff/20-20/26-apr-2018)

  • JH

    John H.

    28 4 2018 00:11

    12       0

    Wow. Seriously? Didn't learn anything I wouldn't know from 2 minutes skimming stories on bbg and a glance at the chart. And the thesis is buy it because it's going up? And because it's dry in the Ivory Coast? I think I long ago proved, at my own cost, that such flimsy reasons lose money. You've got to think the guy on the other side of the trade knows >1,000x more than you and expects to make a meal of you if you trade on the basis of this. This is trading fantasy, man.

  • MH

    Matt H.

    27 4 2018 23:27

    4       0

    Up 45% this year isn't a positive in my book when it comes to taking a long position.

  • MS

    Michel S.

    27 4 2018 19:50

    0       0

    A short term trade to me, don't know much about Coco market has to be a little investigated. Look volatile enough to be add on a list of trades ETF.

  • gg

    gskozlov@gmail.com g.

    27 4 2018 19:39

    1       1

    Cocoa looks like it has just ended 5-wave impulse from January 2018. I would expect 2-4 months correction with at least 50% target (28.75 for NIB - just below Nick`s SL). Keep in mind current COT and DSI for cocoa futures. DO your own research first. Good Luck!

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    27 4 2018 16:49

    7       0

    ...an (evidently arbitrary) 10% stop? ...on an instrument that just soared 45%? ...at a level just THIS SIDE of the most recent low?
    Utterly pathetic: Such superficial risk management will lose a lot of listeners a lot of money over time.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    27 4 2018 13:09

    19       0

    Love trade ideas, but this music is ridiculous, its like war music.