Hot Chocolate!

Featuring Nick Colas

Nick Colas of DataTrek Research sniffs opportunity in cocoa futures. He presents a trade on the relevant ETF in this interview with Alyona Minkovski. Filmed on April 23.

Published on
27 April, 2018
Topic
Trading, ETF
Duration
8 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
39

Comments

  • MD

    Matt D.

    6 6 2018 03:29

    0       0

    This guy had terrible timing. However, we're likely at a low-risk entry here now near $27 for a trade back to the low $30s based on technicals alone. Technical Reasons: RSI at 26, testing the 200 day moving average support, backtesting the 2017 basing pattern neckline that lead to the 2018 breakout, and on top of it all, a Demark countdown 13 exhaustion will likely trigger tomorrow. I held off on buying and this is the entry opportunity I was waiting for. Limit order set for $27. Stop loss under $26. Offers a minimum 3:1 reward/risk IMO.

    • MD

      Matt D.

      8 6 2018 21:24

      0       0

      Filled at the bottom to the penny. Great Reversal. Will sell half at 30 and the rest around 33.

  • JO

    Jens O.

    3 6 2018 04:38

    2       0

    Revisted June 3rd: You nailed the price top (in most CC futures) to the day! Since then Future markets are down ~ 20%, forming a bearish pattern (potentially a gigantic Head & Shoulder) ... Some guys below gave a fair warning, great ... Just, where is the innovation of this series? It's definitely not in bringing mediocre analyses from print to video ...

  • JP

    John P.

    2 5 2018 03:14

    1       0

    This trade has run most it's course but you can still get a nice 5-10% without risking too much. It's certainly a harder and riskier trade than the other's featured thus far. What hasn't been mentioned on the trading clips (but was in other long form videos/think tank) is the general bull market occurring in grains right now.

  • NT

    Nicholas T.

    1 5 2018 10:47

    4       0

    Do not listen to this guy. He has no idea what he’s talking about. The price has gone up 50%. It’s been a great trade but the main part is OVER. For a retail trader, the risk/reward is less appealing. If you want to own it, wait for a significant sell off and buy a dip. You will need a weather story to propel demand over 3,000 and keep it there. Demand growth will slow over 3000 on a lagged basis. Cocoa demand is very price sensitive with a time lag.

    • IC

      Ibrahim C.

      2 5 2018 01:43

      1       0

      I certainly agree. The better way to trade this is the active Cocoa contract (CCN8), however it is better to wait for pullback around 2250 or 2300 levels and then to be long again to 3250 USD/bushel. I think Cocoa has been long trade until the second half of 2019 and then will go back much much lower through 2020.

  • CL

    Claus L.

    1 5 2018 09:28

    2       1

    It is a bit of a pity that RealVision has decided to go down the road of giving trading tips......
    Long cocoa? Now? On the basis of very long-term weather forecasts on the Ivory Coast and that no-one apparently follows cocoa? Really?
    If I look at open interest, CFTC-reported trader positioning, angle of ascent of the latest price-move, money flow indicators - well, if anything, they give signals that any longs better leave the party now and get ready for a serious retracement, a medium-timeframe shorting opportunity.

  • F

    Floyd .

    30 4 2018 21:26

    0       0

    not bad information but late to this idea

  • AG

    Asim G.

    30 4 2018 20:05

    1       0

    How is this a trade idea? This is something I would expect in a Fortune magazine or Wall Street Journal side article... At this point, given the parabolic move, short cocoa with a stop is better than a long trade... jeez.

  • JU

    Jay U.

    29 4 2018 05:32

    0       0

    Would be interested to dig a little deeper into the fundamentals of cocoa. Anyone know any good resources?

  • AG

    Anubhav G.

    28 4 2018 08:22

    2       0

    This is mentioned in 20/20 as well (https://www.realvision.com/free-stuff/20-20/26-apr-2018)

  • JH

    John H.

    28 4 2018 00:11

    12       0

    Wow. Seriously? Didn't learn anything I wouldn't know from 2 minutes skimming stories on bbg and a glance at the chart. And the thesis is buy it because it's going up? And because it's dry in the Ivory Coast? I think I long ago proved, at my own cost, that such flimsy reasons lose money. You've got to think the guy on the other side of the trade knows >1,000x more than you and expects to make a meal of you if you trade on the basis of this. This is trading fantasy, man.

    • FR

      Filip R.

      28 4 2018 11:11

      1       0

      agree100% https://www.ft.com/content/c320bc66-4899-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

  • MH

    Matt H.

    27 4 2018 23:27

    4       0

    Up 45% this year isn't a positive in my book when it comes to taking a long position.

    • DC

      DAVID C.

      29 4 2018 11:57

      0       0

      credit spreads?

  • MS

    Michel S.

    27 4 2018 19:50

    0       0

    A short term trade to me, don't know much about Coco market has to be a little investigated. Look volatile enough to be add on a list of trades ETF.

  • gg

    gskozlov@gmail.com g.

    27 4 2018 19:39

    1       1

    Cocoa looks like it has just ended 5-wave impulse from January 2018. I would expect 2-4 months correction with at least 50% target (28.75 for NIB - just below Nick`s SL). Keep in mind current COT and DSI for cocoa futures. DO your own research first. Good Luck!

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    27 4 2018 16:49

    7       0

    ...an (evidently arbitrary) 10% stop? ...on an instrument that just soared 45%? ...at a level just THIS SIDE of the most recent low?
    Utterly pathetic: Such superficial risk management will lose a lot of listeners a lot of money over time.

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    27 4 2018 13:09

    19       0

    Love trade ideas, but this music is ridiculous, its like war music.

    • IF

      Ian F.

      27 4 2018 15:52

      6       0

      No doubt, completely unprofessional when watching RV in the office, my coworkers ask if I'm having a party.

    • NI

      Nate I.

      28 4 2018 00:04

      7       4

      I have been complaining about the annoying music some twit injects at 500 dB into the videos for a long time. RV seems to be deaf to the subscriber complaints. Maybe that helps explain the music. I'll say it again. It's not "trendy", it's not "cool", it's just GD annoying.

    • pb

      phillip b.

      28 4 2018 16:38

      3       1

      The music if fun.