Hot Chocolate!

Published on
April 27th, 2018
Duration
8 minutes

Hot Chocolate!

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Nick Colas

Published on: April 27th, 2018 • Duration: 8 minutes

Nick Colas of DataTrek Research sniffs opportunity in cocoa futures. He presents a trade on the relevant ETF in this interview with Alyona Minkovski. Filmed on April 23.

Comments

  • MD
    Matt D.
    6 June 2018 @ 03:29
    This guy had terrible timing. However, we're likely at a low-risk entry here now near $27 for a trade back to the low $30s based on technicals alone. Technical Reasons: RSI at 26, testing the 200 day moving average support, backtesting the 2017 basing pattern neckline that lead to the 2018 breakout, and on top of it all, a Demark countdown 13 exhaustion will likely trigger tomorrow. I held off on buying and this is the entry opportunity I was waiting for. Limit order set for $27. Stop loss under $26. Offers a minimum 3:1 reward/risk IMO.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      8 June 2018 @ 21:24
      Filled at the bottom to the penny. Great Reversal. Will sell half at 30 and the rest around 33.
  • JO
    Jens O.
    3 June 2018 @ 04:38
    Revisted June 3rd: You nailed the price top (in most CC futures) to the day! Since then Future markets are down ~ 20%, forming a bearish pattern (potentially a gigantic Head & Shoulder) ... Some guys below gave a fair warning, great ... Just, where is the innovation of this series? It's definitely not in bringing mediocre analyses from print to video ...
  • JP
    John P.
    2 May 2018 @ 03:14
    This trade has run most it's course but you can still get a nice 5-10% without risking too much. It's certainly a harder and riskier trade than the other's featured thus far. What hasn't been mentioned on the trading clips (but was in other long form videos/think tank) is the general bull market occurring in grains right now.
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    1 May 2018 @ 10:47
    Do not listen to this guy. He has no idea what he’s talking about. The price has gone up 50%. It’s been a great trade but the main part is OVER. For a retail trader, the risk/reward is less appealing. If you want to own it, wait for a significant sell off and buy a dip. You will need a weather story to propel demand over 3,000 and keep it there. Demand growth will slow over 3000 on a lagged basis. Cocoa demand is very price sensitive with a time lag.
    • IC
      Ibrahim C.
      2 May 2018 @ 01:43
      I certainly agree. The better way to trade this is the active Cocoa contract (CCN8), however it is better to wait for pullback around 2250 or 2300 levels and then to be long again to 3250 USD/bushel. I think Cocoa has been long trade until the second half of 2019 and then will go back much much lower through 2020.
  • CL
    Claus L.
    1 May 2018 @ 09:28
    It is a bit of a pity that RealVision has decided to go down the road of giving trading tips...... Long cocoa? Now? On the basis of very long-term weather forecasts on the Ivory Coast and that no-one apparently follows cocoa? Really? If I look at open interest, CFTC-reported trader positioning, angle of ascent of the latest price-move, money flow indicators - well, if anything, they give signals that any longs better leave the party now and get ready for a serious retracement, a medium-timeframe shorting opportunity.
  • F
    Floyd .
    30 April 2018 @ 21:26
    not bad information but late to this idea
  • AG
    Asim G.
    30 April 2018 @ 20:05
    How is this a trade idea? This is something I would expect in a Fortune magazine or Wall Street Journal side article... At this point, given the parabolic move, short cocoa with a stop is better than a long trade... jeez.
  • JU
    Jay U.
    29 April 2018 @ 05:32
    Would be interested to dig a little deeper into the fundamentals of cocoa. Anyone know any good resources?
  • AG
    Anubhav G.
    28 April 2018 @ 08:22
    This is mentioned in 20/20 as well (https://www.realvision.com/free-stuff/20-20/26-apr-2018)
  • JH
    John H.
    28 April 2018 @ 00:11
    Wow. Seriously? Didn't learn anything I wouldn't know from 2 minutes skimming stories on bbg and a glance at the chart. And the thesis is buy it because it's going up? And because it's dry in the Ivory Coast? I think I long ago proved, at my own cost, that such flimsy reasons lose money. You've got to think the guy on the other side of the trade knows >1,000x more than you and expects to make a meal of you if you trade on the basis of this. This is trading fantasy, man.
    • FR
      Filip R.
      28 April 2018 @ 11:11
      agree100% https://www.ft.com/content/c320bc66-4899-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb
  • MH
    Matt H.
    27 April 2018 @ 23:27
    Up 45% this year isn't a positive in my book when it comes to taking a long position.
    • DC
      DAVID C.
      29 April 2018 @ 11:57
      credit spreads?
  • MS
    Michel S.
    27 April 2018 @ 19:50
    A short term trade to me, don't know much about Coco market has to be a little investigated. Look volatile enough to be add on a list of trades ETF.
  • gg
    gskozlov@gmail.com g.
    27 April 2018 @ 19:39
    Cocoa looks like it has just ended 5-wave impulse from January 2018. I would expect 2-4 months correction with at least 50% target (28.75 for NIB - just below Nick`s SL). Keep in mind current COT and DSI for cocoa futures. DO your own research first. Good Luck!
  • TJ
    Tay J.
    27 April 2018 @ 16:49
    ...an (evidently arbitrary) 10% stop? ...on an instrument that just soared 45%? ...at a level just THIS SIDE of the most recent low? Utterly pathetic: Such superficial risk management will lose a lot of listeners a lot of money over time.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    27 April 2018 @ 13:09
    Love trade ideas, but this music is ridiculous, its like war music.
    • IF
      Ian F.
      27 April 2018 @ 15:52
      No doubt, completely unprofessional when watching RV in the office, my coworkers ask if I'm having a party.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      28 April 2018 @ 00:04
      I have been complaining about the annoying music some twit injects at 500 dB into the videos for a long time. RV seems to be deaf to the subscriber complaints. Maybe that helps explain the music. I'll say it again. It's not "trendy", it's not "cool", it's just GD annoying.
    • pb
      phillip b.
      28 April 2018 @ 16:38
      The music if fun.