Is This Still a Bull Market?

Published on
August 28th, 2019
Duration
12 minutes

Is This Still a Bull Market?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Chris Verrone

Published on: August 28th, 2019 • Duration: 12 minutes

Chris Verrone, partner at Strategas Research, sifts through the noise to answer a timely question on every investor’s mind: is the bull market over for stocks? In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Verrone analyzes the market’s recent price action, breaks down some key contrarian signals, and notes where to draw the line in the sand for the S&P 500. Filmed on August 27, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • DC
    Dan C.
    6 September 2019 @ 06:01
    Laughable. Can’t believe clowns still manage money using moving monkeys lol. Good news is he’s providing me liquidity.
  • AB
    Anne-Marie B.
    30 August 2019 @ 01:44
    Very well constructed argument, Chris. Nice interview
  • IF
    Ian F.
    29 August 2019 @ 19:14
    Judging by the thumbs down ratio, he's likely right... trolling all you chumps, how do your clients like you selling every rally this cycle...? oh wait they took their money back and you're now shut down.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    29 August 2019 @ 12:55
    Very astute. Thank you!
  • MT
    Mike T.
    29 August 2019 @ 08:17
    OK I've decided to give up trying to invest/trade based upon my own decisions. Instead I'm going to make some real money & start a newsletter, it will be really expensive and each month I'll inform my subscribers, who most probably will have the attention span of a 'mosquito', of where the 200 SMA for the SPX might be. Any takers?
  • DS
    David S.
    29 August 2019 @ 02:29
    Since short-term executive pay is the prime corporate motivation for many, the market value continues to be supported by corporate stock buybacks. Under the new US tax rates, I assume corporations are bringing overseas money back to the US to buyback more stock. This will not end well for share holders when the cash and leverage run out. In addition legislation may be a foot. I am pessimistic because I am just unable to see even a short way into the future. Sorry. DLS
  • ab
    aaron b.
    29 August 2019 @ 00:45
    Patrick Bateman knows what's up.
  • AK
    Arthur K.
    29 August 2019 @ 00:27
    RV TV first ? CV was on CNBC same day, Fast $. They led with D Rosenberg a longtime RV TV interview.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    28 August 2019 @ 23:44
    It's impossible to take any positions based on what he is saying. You can't wait for a big drop to decide to get out. As Keith McCullough says on Hedgeye, this is "OLD WALL" at its best. Not very useful. The 1987 crash occurred on a rising 200 dma. Not a prediction, but 200 dma is not a useful trading tool any more. I would not give this guy $1 of my portfolio to manage.
  • PV
    Peter V.
    28 August 2019 @ 23:10
    I must be a glutton for punishment by keeping to watch these trade ideas. Really lacking the quality that this channel stands for and probably much to do with the way that AR interviews as he struggles to formulate questions.
    • tc
      t c.
      29 August 2019 @ 11:19
      Totally agree. I put it in the recent survey. RV main weakness. At least they have some new faces..
  • TS
    Taranvir S.
    28 August 2019 @ 22:16
    Look back at S&P in Jan 2018 and we are pretty much at around those levels. Really a bull market??? The only 2 things that have been keeping up the major indices are: 1. Momentum trading i.e. BTFD 2. Stock buybacks (We had like 800B+ (needa confirm the number) in buybacks by corporations in 2018)
  • MS
    Matthew S.
    28 August 2019 @ 17:25
    Fed 16 was a lower low vs Sep 2015... Why is he so focused on that anyway? By the time the market has pulled back 15-20%, you're too late.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    28 August 2019 @ 14:24
    Nice to see RV trot out someone who can make a bullish argument every now and then
    • BT
      Brian T.
      28 August 2019 @ 23:48
      Too bad it's not a very good one though. There are good bullish arguments, they have to do with Fed easing, QE a lower dollar and reflation. It's got NOTHING to do with the 200 day moving monkey, nor does it have anything to do with a bunch of tech stocks that are likely to get whacked soon.
  • RI
    R I.
    28 August 2019 @ 11:57
    We’re in a bull market because of the rising 200 day moving average?! LOL!
    • TR
      Travis R.
      28 August 2019 @ 15:41
      The slope of the 200MA is all important. The most severe declines of last 2 major bear markets came AFTER the 200MA flattened out and started declining.
    • KW
      K W.
      28 August 2019 @ 18:15
      Most of us know what he means by that. There is significance in the 200 DMA. Although I would not press in with full long under current circumstances. That does not mean people have to take everything off and hoping for a full sell-off mode. People often look at the current situation as a binary (full risk-on or full risk-off) decision but its not.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    28 August 2019 @ 10:53
    The risk/reward is not worth going long SOX (semiconductors) at this point. I'd be getting ready to set up a short very soon. Why would semiconductors suddenly start to rally to new ATHs? EMs, Asia, Europe and soon the US in a slow down. New orders will already be in decline, and it will begin to show up on earnings, and then many of these companies will start to guide lower.
    • LM
      Leighan M.
      28 August 2019 @ 10:59
      Not to mention DRAM prices have continued to drop and some of the semiconductor companies have been incorrectly calling a bottom for months. Anyone buying here, like you say, is way more likely to be the sucker buying at the top.
    • KW
      K W.
      28 August 2019 @ 18:20
      I am guessing we will not see the pain of semi until later this year or early next. Most of the disruption in supply chain was just implemented this year. These companies probably still have some juice to manage their earnings. The Chinese knows they can't depend on western companies for tech too long. If western tech companies still think they can sell high-tech to Chinese and not expect to be ripped-off then that company is stupid. Heck, the Chinese even copy the Russian Su-57.