Oil’s Slippery Slope

Published on
26 November, 2018
Topic
Trading, US Economy, Sentiment, Oil
Duration
12 minutes
Asset class
Commodities

Oil’s Slippery Slope

Featuring Tony Greer

Tony Greer of TG Macro takes a tour of the oil market and explains the recent implosion in prices. He analyzes this historical move, reviews how we got here and projects where we’re headed, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on November 20, 2018

Published on
26 November, 2018
Topic
Trading, US Economy, Sentiment, Oil
Duration
12 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
17
Sharing

Comments

  • CM

    Carlos M.

    3 12 2018 08:49

    0       0

    Leyt me be the first to say well done TG, I still dont see any correlation with any the reason you mentioned but still a win is a win.

  • MZ

    Martin Z.

    30 11 2018 07:36

    1       0

    Seriously wrong on the macro IMO, and regardless, trying to catch a falling knife. One of his two trades (the "better" one) is almost hitting his stop loss only 10 days after this interview is dated. That's the bad news. The good news is his stop losses are tight, so he isn't going to lose too much money.
    I think Raoul is much closer to the mark here with his much broader macro perspective , although oil may not drop all the way to $20. But it won't need to, it's already signaling a recession in 2019 and at risk of blowing up a lot more producers (and traders) on the way.

  • JL

    Johnny L.

    27 11 2018 13:56

    4       0

    I do not trust consumer confidence as Tony does for gauging a bullish market bias. What do these polls know? Hillary was supposed to win by 85:15.
    Consumers can not be that sure on real hard data. Most of them do not have any savings for an emergency. Who are the pollsters talking to? Maybe they believe POTUS promises for wages and jobs materializes but there is little evidence of that and I bet CC numbers plunge very soon.
    Otherwise an interesting discussion but I will not go long energy on the arguments until proven and than there is a lot of room to run higher after some confirmation.

  • BC

    Burton C.

    27 11 2018 05:49

    3       0

    All sounds great, but I am waiting for lower levels rather than catching the falling knife. The last 2 recs were mental. Short gold... seriously... and go long FCX??? That was a trade which didn't understand the world wide slowdown.

  • RP

    Ryan P.

    27 11 2018 00:13

    0       0

    Nice job Tony. I played the NG trade in the levered space 2 weeks ago ... but that’s a whole other animal in itself. Will look to get involved this wk. What are your thoughts on GSG ?

  • IO

    Igor O.

    26 11 2018 19:45

    1       0

    Is selling 60 days out CL puts here a good idea?

  • DM

    Dan M.

    26 11 2018 18:44

    2       2

    Agree, all this talk about a glut is complete BS unless there is a tremendous slowdown in the global economy which doesn't seem likely before at least 2020.

  • KJ

    Keith J.

    26 11 2018 17:52

    1       0

    An alternative view from Raoul:

    https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1065929676818968576?s=21

  • HO

    H2 O.

    26 11 2018 17:33

    1       0

    Disagree with the outlook for the S/D balance into H1 of next year. Prices may have overshot on the downside a bit, but if current production forecasts for the next 3 quarters are within a reasonable error, seems to be limited upside for prices until maybe the start of Q2.

  • FA

    Frank A.

    26 11 2018 16:39

    2       1

    Wrong macro call. Consumer Confidence as an indicator of anything ...I'm not buying

  • SS

    Steve S.

    26 11 2018 14:16

    6       0

    I'd rather wait for Oil to bounce and then short the bounce. I believe it to be a more lucrative trade.

  • CM

    Carlos M.

    26 11 2018 11:28

    8       0

    the us economy is humming??..sure ( reminds me of kudlow just before the last crisis).... maybe it is just me but all I hear is a lot of uncorrelated facts building a story that doesnt make sense... his trade might works purely on technicals but def not for me. if you missed shorting oil, dont try to make it up by catching a falling knife.