Playing the Fed’s Flip-Flop

Published on
February 12th, 2019
Duration
12 minutes


Playing the Fed’s Flip-Flop

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Max Wolff

Published on: February 12th, 2019 • Duration: 12 minutes

Max Wolff, co-founder of Multivariate, reviews how the Fed’s latest policy maneuvers have helped boost asset prices in 2019. He analyzes the situation, notes risks to consider, and highlights the best way to take advantage of the opportunity, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on February 11, 2019.

Comments

  • YY
    Ys Y.
    20 February 2019 @ 11:17
    Weak idea, “colourful” commentary
  • PV
    P V.
    15 February 2019 @ 03:23
    Agree re Fed unable to hike but the notion of ECB tightening is totally flawed. With the key countries economies rolling over and the growing pressure from populist parties, the odds are for more QE, rather than less, from the ECB. Hence a weaker or at least stable Euro.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 February 2019 @ 08:07
      Love Europe, but it is in too much of a mess for me to predict. As far as the Fed goes, it needs to ditch its third mission of saving Wall Street. That game was important for one or two attempts. Without reasonable interest rates, which might not be that much higher for now, there is no price discovery. The Fed should run silent and run deep. DLS
  • WM
    William M.
    13 February 2019 @ 07:20
    or just buy gold, silver and their miners
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      13 February 2019 @ 16:14
      pretty much. it's been the best trade last few months imo. miners bottomed in November as real yields rolled over. However, real yields will collapse further if Fed panics on its balance sheet reduction (they are already signaling this). It looks like a bit of a repeat of 2016, but the set-up is better because real yields are actually at a higher base across the curve. Of course, the $ could pop higher in a panic (bad for all risk assets), so owning US duration as well as gold / miners is probably a pretty good play for H1.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      13 February 2019 @ 16:24
      there are also shades of H1 2017, where the debt ceiling saw the Treasury drain their balance, flooding the US (and the world) with billions in $ liquidity. barring a major crisis in China or Europe, that should happen again this year, supporting risk assets (and gold). unlike 2017, however, there is now "synchronised global growth", so real yields should fall or remain steady - along with the $. https://e-markets.nordea.com/api/research/item/47386.pdf?embedded=true Not to mention you have central banks desperate to talk the $ down. all up > $ headwinds in H1, falling real yields, Fed looking to halt its balance sheet run-down, miners very cheap and underowned etc. set-up is nice.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      13 February 2019 @ 16:24
      *no synchronised growth lol
    • DS
      David S.
      19 February 2019 @ 08:08
      I am still having fun with CRON and CGC. DLS
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    13 February 2019 @ 06:08
    Skin in the game with Max Wolff? Good 30 to 45min chat with him would be interesting
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    12 February 2019 @ 20:55
    I love these guys.
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    12 February 2019 @ 18:21
    I like the way Bryan interviews!
  • JR
    Jeff R.
    12 February 2019 @ 17:06
    Like his macro view more than his trade idea. It would be nice to hear what he has to say in a longer interview