Political Pound Play

Published on
November 13th, 2018
Duration
10 minutes

Political Pound Play

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Joseph Trevisani

Published on: November 13th, 2018 • Duration: 10 minutes

Is a Brexit agreement by Theresa May’s cabinet priced into GBP/USD? Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, updates his long British pound thesis and reviews why politics currently remains the dominant factor for the currency. He talks negotiations, shifting deadlines and highlights how to take advantage of the opportunity, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on November 9, 2018.

Comments

  • SB
    Stewart B.
    25 November 2018 @ 13:23
    That works. Despite many minor deadlines, they are still negotiating, both with EU and internally between the more statist MPs (May, Soubry etc) and the more libertarian MPs (Raab, Davis, Gove etc). I suspect they will eventually get agreement on most parts but not till the 59th minute of the 11th hour. Also, contrary to mainstream analysis, I don't expect any of the Brexit scenarios (including hard) to be particularly negative economically. Usually recessions are caused by excess credit creation (then a pop) or unforeseeable events. This is neither. UK trade with EU will continue, even if it ends up facing the same frictions that the UK experiences with US, Canada and Australia (worst case).
  • SS
    Sam S.
    13 November 2018 @ 19:57
    Tough trade bet to make. The EU has far more to loose than the UK. I really like the idea of Brexit happening with NO Deal. The UK holds (4) Aces in this ridiculous poker match going on regarding Brexit. Just leave the EU, then make deals. I think it will mirror what happened when Trump got elected, everyone running to make deals with the UK, with the EU sucking wind. Italy will be next then Poland. The EU is a huge failed experiment of Federalizing Europe, when it was started as a trade union and a way to lower the USD. Time to pickup their chips and go home.
  • SH
    Steve H.
    13 November 2018 @ 18:40
    Never was there a better example of how pointless it is to publish a trade idea after it has sat in the production pipeline for four days. Incidentally, Mr. Trevisani overestimates the importance of cabinet approval. Most of them are spineless, valueless, and willing to do whatever it takes to keep their ministerial privileges; if one or two prove me wrong and do resign tonight, they'll simply be dismissed by May and the rest of the pro-Remain Establishment as irrelevant. He is correct to say that parliamentary approval - or not - is the big issue. If today's deal turns out to be the abject surrender I anticipate it to have been, riding long cable into the vote is a simple roll of the dice, as he implies.
  • jt
    jerome t.
    13 November 2018 @ 17:14
    I do not agree. Once again the Globalists have got it wrong, since they have an outmoded misconception that GDP growth and stock market growth means economic improvements for the population. This is "Marie-Antionette thinking", i.e. living in a bubble. The 'deal' Theresa May is punting around seems to be £39bn payment, economic vassalage and the break-up of the country. Tory MPs know that if they agree to that, they will be out at the next election, shredded between Jeremy Corbyn's Labour and a resurgent UKIP. The current Act of Parliament means the UK will naturally leave the EU end of Q1 2019. search Youtube for "Jacob Rees-Mogg on ITV`s Peston - 7th November 2018 -Full Interview" for another view.
    • jt
      jerome t.
      13 November 2018 @ 17:18
      "Parliament has legislated to leave the European Union on the 29th March 2019, with or without a deal". That can only be changed by another Act of parliament, which I don't see Teresa May is likely to get any time soon.
  • DS
    David S.
    13 November 2018 @ 16:11
    As an American, I certainly do not understand the local situation in Britain or Europe. As I recall the major concern pushing Brexit over the top was immigration. It is also a major concern in many other countries in Europe. When the Brexit vote passed the US had a much different relationship with Britain and Europe. Because of the US move to isolationism, England and the EEC may wish to have closer economic ties than right after the Brexit vote. The Conservative Party in Britain certainly wants a complete separation and autonomy. This is causing Prime Minister May many problems within her own party. The majority of Parliament and possibly most British citizens may be willing to accept complete control over immigration but remain in a newly negotiated custom union with the EEC. Other EEC countries having major issues with EEC immigration rules may also use this as a template for negotiations. Britain and Europe need to look to a better plan for the future and stop politicking in the present. Britain and Europe are going to have their hands full with many other issues without diminishing trade. Just a thought from across the pond. DLS
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    13 November 2018 @ 14:07
    Hopefully, Joe isn't running other people's money using BREXIT politics as a fundamental approach. Respectively, Joe kinda knows what he wants to do but nobody should be making calls on what, where and when a move will happen on this topic, IMHAO. Appreciate the effort. Thanks!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      13 November 2018 @ 17:43
      Is that not what all trades essentially are, taking the facts and then predicting (i.e. best guess) the future?
    • SF
      Simon F.
      14 November 2018 @ 08:19
      I think it helps to have some facts to form a framework. What this guy has is political noise in a three dimensional game played by unreconcilable factions. Good luck with that!
    • MC
      Matthew C.
      17 November 2018 @ 09:20
      Totally agree, i am British and so follow Brexit closely and i have no idea what is going to happen on any given day. It's not completely out of the question that May gets a vote of no confidence. If that happens you would struggle to get filled at the stop.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    13 November 2018 @ 13:31
    Guys short clips like this are nice but could be 2nd/3rd piece of the day. Has to be more substance. Think daily pieces of at least 20min and substantive subjects are important to maintain interest. Plenty of subjects in this market
    • EF
      Eric F.
      13 November 2018 @ 17:45
      It’s an idea - for your consideration, and further due diligence, should it interest you. Not bad, considering the price of RV as a whole. Excellent actually, in my opinion.
  • SF
    Steffen F.
    13 November 2018 @ 13:20
    Stopped put before video release! Ufff. Timing is everything
  • PC
    Paul C.
    13 November 2018 @ 11:22
    As stated on RealVision's last 'Exchange' episode: there will surely come a point - potentially around the forthcoming Parliamentary vote - where the market will have to price in a 'no-deal' scenario. The Labour party will not want this to go smoothly for Theresa May. This is the buying opportunity for me.
  • SM
    Stephane M.
    13 November 2018 @ 09:44
    Bad trade idea... Stop too tight... Poor risk/reward
    • EF
      Eric F.
      13 November 2018 @ 17:46
      Tight stop but news coming out of a deal today. I think it’s a good idea, although I see a ‘deal’ breaking down somewhere, ultimately pushing the pound down.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      13 November 2018 @ 17:47
      Btw, the risk / reward looked good to me.