Shorting with Zeal

Featuring Joe Perry

Joe Perry of ForexAnalytix takes a technical look at New Zealand’s currency, the Kiwi. In this interview with Real Vision’s Brian Price, Perry explains his bearish thesis for the Kiwi using technical indicators such as Elliot wave analysis and fibonacci retracements. Filmed on October 19, 2018.

Published on
25 October, 2018
Topic
US Dollar, Australia/New-Zealand, FX
Duration
7 minutes
Asset class
Currencies
Rating
7

Comments

  • DS

    David S.

    25 10 2018 22:31

    0       0

    The US has rising rates and the cleanest shirt in a dirty hamper. Not sure why Mr. Perry chose the Kiwi over all the other currencies. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    25 10 2018 22:14

    0       0

    The US/China trade war should help the New Zealand and Australia meat and dairy industries. In addition, there may be a lot of under-the-table trans shipments of remarked US agricultural products including beans to China. DLS

  • IA

    Izzy A.

    25 10 2018 19:09

    1       8

    RV- you are going down the quality curve !!!!

    Less is more !!!

  • SH

    Steve H.

    25 10 2018 18:55

    9       0

    A couple of comments:

    1. NZ has not 'just' got a new government. The election was in September last year. The NZ Labour Party might look 'leftish' to US commentators (cf Jared Dillian's ramblings about NZ turning 'Marxist' immediately after the election), but out here in the rest of the world it is no more than 'centre-left'. Indeed, it's a good bit more centrist than many Democrats standing in next week's mid-terms.

    2. The thesis that the kiwi is adversely affected by Trump' tariffs on China is not borne out by yesterday's trade data, and unless the Chinese slow their imports of meat and dairy products because they can no longer afford them (which I doubt) the logic flow here is questionable. Even more questionable is the assertion that the Kiwi is more exposed to a Chinese slowdown than the Aussie; again, the Chinese are likely to continue buying food, but absent considerably more stimulus than seen so far from Beijing their imports of copper and coal will weaken.

    3. Orr is certainly hyper-dovish, but given current ED pricing the market seems to think the Fed will be moving in the same direction within the next quarter or two. In other words, the yield spread going forward may not be getting much wider.

    On technical grounds the Kiwi certainly looks weak and I'm not saying Mr. Perry is wrong. On the other hand, CFTC positioning is way overloaded to the short side and his fundamental theses are questionable. That tight stop might come in handy.

  • DR

    David R.

    25 10 2018 18:50

    0       2

    Rumors today that Trump will fire Powell after the election and replace with Larry Summers, who has been writing op-eds everywhere about wanting to slash US rates immediately and drastically. Mr Summers advocates a negative Fed Funds rate policy. Sounds to me exactly what Trump the RE developer wants.

  • DR

    David R.

    25 10 2018 18:47

    0       6

    NZ recently elected its first openly socialist PM and NZ has been tanking ever since.

  • YB

    Yvan B.

    25 10 2018 16:24

    2       0

    Great interview. It is also have been interesting to hear his comments about equities. As the Aussie and the Kiwie tend to act as a sort of barometers of the risk-on / risk-off environment, being short those currencies usually means bearish on equities. You can notice the strong co-movement between AUDJPY and EM equities over the past 10 years (see here https://rothkoresearch.com/2018/09/19/great-chart-audjpy-vs-em-equities/).

    Also, as I said to Milton, it would be good if we could join pictures in the comment section so traders could share their chart as well, especially for these kind of interviews.