The Start of a New Gold Bull Market?

Published on
July 19th, 2019
Duration
15 minutes


The Start of a New Gold Bull Market?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Steve Strazza

Published on: July 19th, 2019 • Duration: 15 minutes

Steve Strazza of The Chart Report discusses five crucial factors that should determine if gold's recent breakout is truly the beginning of a new bull market. He examines the historical patterns of the gold/silver ratio, points out the relative strength of gold stocks versus the actual metal, and considers a specific trade on a gold miner ETF to play the thesis, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on July 18, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • MK
    Murray K.
    7 August 2019 @ 20:02
    Have had a lot of fun watching this video a couple times, Specially the comments on silver types being absolute crazies. My wife calls it my Silver bipolar disorder. She says I get all high off of buying silver or silver miners or was it I get high from silver which causes me to buy silver and silver miners. This last couple months though she has stopped mentioning my silver disorder. Another thing she would always say whenever I mentioned "Gold was going to rally" was "Rally your big fat A**". She also hasn't used that signature reply for a while now. I don't rub it in though since I thought 2016 was the moment for PMs. Still not totally convinced now either but I bought a lot more silver when the ratio hit 93ish along with a little gold. Still holding all my miners too. Need videos like this one to plan an exit strategy for when to sell. Thank you.
  • MF
    M F.
    25 July 2019 @ 04:51
    Good trade idea, and equally important, a good format today Justine. As I have mentioned previously--and now glad to see being implemented--for the trade ideas section, the specifics elements of the following were asked/answered in a punchy 15mins: entry, target, stop loss, timeframe to target, catalysts, and risks to trade were all asked by Justine and answered by Steve. Just what we need. Please keep up this format for the trade section!..thx
  • JH
    Jason H.
    25 July 2019 @ 03:29
    Gold and the USD are converging here, the SAME driver is at play in both.
  • AI
    Alita I.
    21 July 2019 @ 03:34
    He see the Gold/Silver chart said its topping, when I see its testing highs, its just begging to breakout, especially when silver get less industrial use in a recession and hedge funds usually chase after gold than silver. Then he said his long gold thesis is because when dollar weakens gold will rise. He didnt realize since Q2 last year dollar and gold risen together. I believe these supposedly opposing instrument gold and dollar rising together is just so hard to wrap people's mind around. Because this rise therefore that will fall, where as Peter Brandt taught to look at the chart individually regardless of correlation, instead of looking at a chart as a derivative of another chart. When dollar and gold kept rising together, he will keep questioning his thesis, second guessing himself , perplexed, making it too complicated.
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    21 July 2019 @ 00:37
    Im sure this trade has been on a lot of peoples mind since the first fed hike in December 2015 and golds ~$1000 bottom. Pretty exciting!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    20 July 2019 @ 22:46
    Great!
  • TR
    Travis R.
    19 July 2019 @ 22:16
    Another great gold indicator (gold vs monetary base) is breaking out as well. https://www.macrotrends.net/2485/gold-to-monetary-base-ratio
  • HA
    Harrison A.
    19 July 2019 @ 19:03
    I understand the main point of the trade pitch was that the technicals by themselves are bullish, but I think the beauty of this trade (I'm playing via call options on GDX and SLV) is the the risk/reward i.e. massive upside with relatively limited downside. You've got policy makers globally moving towards cutting rates and resuming QE, and we all know that real interest rates are the biggest driver of the gold price. No doubt the Real Vision audience understands this.
    • SD
      Samy D.
      22 July 2019 @ 11:47
      What time horizon are you looking at for your options?
    • HA
      Harrison A.
      23 July 2019 @ 17:09
      I own calls out to 2021.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    19 July 2019 @ 15:17
    Was this filmed on the 18th?! Silver had already been breaking out significantly from 15th July...so some of this discussion seems out of date, frankly.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      19 July 2019 @ 15:18
      And also, while I appreciate the trade idea, seems somewhat short-sighted to me to simply focus on technicals, when the wider macro environment is now having a significant influence on PMs.
    • SS
      Steve S. | Contributor
      20 July 2019 @ 13:28
      It’s a long term thesis. Don’t want to be long unless silver is working so needed that confirmation. What is a few days on a trade idea that looks 1yr+ out and returns 140%?
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    19 July 2019 @ 12:22
    Waiting for this since 2016. I hope this is not another fake-out.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      19 July 2019 @ 15:10
      It isn't. For real this time, I am reasonably sure - and that's not because I want it to be - just the way the chips are falling right now both in markets and the world.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    19 July 2019 @ 12:05
    Love the free episodes here on Real Vision. Thanks for the great content!
  • BL
    Bart L.
    19 July 2019 @ 10:51
    I’m in Steve, but am waiting for now for GDX to pause and retrace before getting set for the long run up. Also I do see a scenario where gold & USD both go up. Low yields are more important to gold. Finally the fact that silver is breaking out supports the move in precious metals generally.
  • AB
    Alain B.
    19 July 2019 @ 09:39
    Well done Steve, seems like all your elements to this trade are lining up. However, I agree with Raoul on both the USD and gold going up at the same time, doesn't hurt gold if USD drops but not necessarily joined at the hips.
  • WH
    WEINAN H.
    19 July 2019 @ 08:42
    Silver is breaking out with strong momentum now too!
    • SS
      Steve S. | Contributor
      19 July 2019 @ 12:21
      Yes it is and it will often make hard and fast moves during the early stages of a new bull market which is exactly what we are seeing. We want to continue to watch that SLV/GLD ratio for insight as to investors risk appetite in the metals arena. If it keeps moving higher, we want to remain long. That was the last of the 5 characteristics to start working so I’m watching it most closely.