Tony’s 2019 Market Warning

Published on
December 31st, 2018
Duration
23 minutes

Tony’s 2019 Market Warning

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Tony Greer

Published on: December 31st, 2018 • Duration: 23 minutes

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, has been a staple of Real Vision's “Trade Ideas” during 2018. Looking ahead to 2019, Tony provides guidance and perspective amid the uncertainty. In this interview with Brian Price, Tony offers his take on the Fed and reveals where he sees the most concerning red flags for U.S. markets. Filmed on December 20, 2018.

Comments

  • RA
    Robert A.
    6 January 2019 @ 00:25
    Even with having a significant loss on his Canopy trade I remain a TG fan. He comes with well thought out ideas and clearly is a “stand up guy” having come on to revisit his trade which made it into the Pantheon of worst RV trades. I loved the way Brian handled the trophy for “worst trade of the year” by throwing it into the wall. You know...we all must keep that RV disclaimer in mind—Guests that have been carefully curated by Milton give us their best ideas including facts and assumptions to support them, with each of us doing our own due diligence and determining whether/if to take a position and size it to our risk profile. I’ll listen to anything TG has to say as I’m sure, just like all the other RV guests, he wants very much to do right by us.
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    3 January 2019 @ 19:10
    I do not buy the rate hike as the driver. One year ago today the 10 year trades where it does today. This rate dropped from 3.25 after hikes. Rate hikes is an excuse. Europe and Japan with almost flat 10 year yields have had crashing markets for 12+ months on lower growth. Surrender on rates causing this - they are still at 5000 year lows.
  • MF
    M F.
    3 January 2019 @ 10:48
    I like the interview..good ideas, well presented. However, as mentioned too many times now, if it doesn't have a specific trade entry level, target price, stop loss, timeframe, catalyst, and risk to the trade format, put it in another section which is big picture opinions/talk...the "trade section" should have the aforementioned elements to make these specific and actionable (and measurable as one prior commentator mentioned). This is not rocket science...just mention this to interviewer and speaker of this requirement (or just put in another section). Hope I don't have to keep requesting this without any action being taken.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    2 January 2019 @ 14:32
    Excellent, 10/10
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    2 January 2019 @ 10:56
    Nice piece. Someone made this suggestion recently. Track the P&L of your regular contributors based on their trades pitched on Trade Ideas. Objective and allows us to evaluate contributors based on the merits of their track record.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      3 January 2019 @ 02:11
      second that.
    • DC
      D C.
      9 January 2019 @ 01:50
      Yep...all about long term track record, then recent suggestions track record. I know not everyone is going to be a Druckenmiller, but would be nice to though if talking heads actually produce alpha. Imagine if CNBC had all their guests post their auditable track records...viewership would plummet :)
  • OS
    Otmar S.
    2 January 2019 @ 09:38
    Interesting interview. One theme that would interest me is the current insider buying and selling activity. Buying hit an 8 year high recently and it would be great to get an interview with somebody who has a good read into this data, also from a historc perspective. Thx.
  • md
    mike d.
    1 January 2019 @ 14:20
    Two or Three rate hikes and the real estate market is SHUT DOWN crash
    • TM
      Timothy M.
      1 January 2019 @ 22:37
      please explain why. I'm an investor in cash flowing properties in Austin. I'm pretty happy with 7% cap rates
    • md
      mike d.
      2 January 2019 @ 22:25
      timothy, real estate is so over valued now the average person cannot afford it. free money and extremely cheap rates have driven prices out of wack. as the fed raises rates and has begun taking 50 billion a month off the table, in short the party is over.
    • CM
      C M.
      3 January 2019 @ 03:26
      In talking with commercial developers in Nashville, cap rates aren’t close to 7%. I know one major player that has quit bidding on projects due to high pricing and low projected returns.
  • SB
    Scott B.
    31 December 2018 @ 21:59
    This Brian Price guys schmaltzy false sincerity is difficult to deal with. Hopefully we'll be see less of him
    • DR
      David R.
      31 December 2018 @ 23:07
      Really? I think he does fine. 100X better than I could. Not as easy as it looks.
    • DR
      David R.
      31 December 2018 @ 23:07
      ^ btw, my post wasn't false sincerity. lol
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      1 January 2019 @ 02:30
      Oh no. Hater alert! Happy New Year (in all sincerity).
    • CY
      CHIHLUN Y.
      1 January 2019 @ 09:01
      Hi Scott, I can respect that you have certain views on how to improve the quality of RV's interviews, but I would politely have to disagree with such use of ad hominem attacks. Perhaps send a private message to Milton if you want to bring something like this up. Mutual respect and manners - be a gentleman.
    • SB
      Scott B.
      1 January 2019 @ 17:12
      Yeah, fair point. Apologies. He certainly does a better job than I could.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      5 January 2019 @ 06:14
      What? I was just thinking how this is one of Brian's best ever.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      5 January 2019 @ 06:14
      What? I was just thinking how this is one of Brian's best ever.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      5 January 2019 @ 06:14
      What? I was just thinking how this is one of Brian's best ever.
    • DC
      D C.
      10 January 2019 @ 21:03
      Chug your beer whenever you hear "unpack" from Real V interviewers!
  • DR
    David R.
    31 December 2018 @ 21:32
    Search the transcript and see many instances of "I think" without one single technical chart or other piece of objective evidence. So this seems to be just unsubstantiated personal opinion. Like going to the doctor and being told "I think" without having a single objective test. So better get a second opinion.
    • DR
      David R.
      31 December 2018 @ 23:05
      On second read, I was harsh and wish to be more positive. Mr Greer does describe some basic charts of specific equities nicely in his whirlwind tour which I found interesting on balance. I hope he comes back. Also, I just saw his "worst trade" video and respected that. TQ.
  • DR
    David R.
    31 December 2018 @ 21:30
    Another dollar permbull? The "strong dollar" is farcical as at the end of December the DXY sits at a feeble 95 in a clear bearish pattern, compared to 104 two Decembers ago and FAILURE to even challenge, much less close, above the key 99-100 zone at a minimum to temper the long-term bearish look of the buck. The dollar recovery (failed) of 2018 was choppy with overlapping waves on the chart and never got past the 618 fibonacci to qualify as anymore than a bear market rally which should end soon, if it hasn't already, followed by a huge dollar swoon. USD and US risk assets should be underweight or avoided. Sell the rally.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 January 2019 @ 00:38
      David R. - Happy New Year! You may be correct. My only caveat is every market reacts to the mix of all the other markets in real time psychologically. Assigning probabilities to multiple outcomes is blowing my mind. I hope my mind clears for the new year. We certainly will be tested in 2019. DLS
  • JK
    John K.
    31 December 2018 @ 20:40
    Tony, great job on providing such a succinct overview of so many topics! Would love it if RV took the multiple topics you addressed and had multiple, follow-up, mini-videos where each sub-topic was covered in greater detail. These kind of overview interviews are needed to see the big picture and how the different market movements impact each other. RV, would you please consider conducting similar macro-focused interviews with others, but include follow-up (similar to a TV mini-series) episodes, where the interviewees have a chance to spend time dissecting their aggregate macro views, such as the ones that Tony provided in this interview, into _examples_ of possible trade opportunities or their _expectations_ of potential trade opportunities that would support their macro view, but at the sub-topic or more micro level? And RV, even if the aforementioned request cannot be a consideration for short-term goals, please keep doing what you are doing, as y'all are doing a great job! Regards, John K.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    31 December 2018 @ 19:23
    whether you agree or disagree with Tony, his concepts are well thought out and he articulated them very well.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    31 December 2018 @ 17:49
    Where does the Dow go? DXD?
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    31 December 2018 @ 14:24
    I want to go to your Xmas party Tony.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      1 January 2019 @ 21:05
      2019 - you're in.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    31 December 2018 @ 12:33
    We are already in recession...just waiting for 4Q18 GDP confirmation to show the new trend down. GDP won't necessarily be negative, but the inflection point is behind us.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      1 January 2019 @ 21:06
      vehemently disagree with recession with PMI at 55 across the board, confidence still raging, and industrial production strong.
  • ns
    niall s.
    31 December 2018 @ 12:28
    Lots of info and fair play to Tony for accepting the "worst trade of 2018 " award when there were so many other strong candidates .
  • SH
    Sin H.
    31 December 2018 @ 12:00
    The latest 4-wk T-Bills auction was at 2.4%.
  • DS
    David S.
    31 December 2018 @ 11:48
    With all the negative comments Tony looks optimistic with an expected low of 2300 in the S&P index. One major point not discussed is 2019 earnings. Everyone is spending a lot of money to disrupt everyone else basically on price while wages are rising. In addition, the asset inflation in stock and property prices caused by all the QEs is not out of the market. The rich will be hit in the stock and home markets. As the S&P continues to fall, more and more passive investors will sell stock positions with a push of the button. Volatility will fuel the selling. At least stock buybacks will not be at such inflated P/Es. No one can quantify all these market movers, but if the 2019 low is 2300, I will be surprised. DLS
    • MA
      Matthew A.
      31 December 2018 @ 14:28
      These guys generally don't care which way things are going, they will go long or short, where many retail investors and "Mutual Fund Mindsets" have to go long and keep citing "buy & hold"...they need to learn another word: Capitulation.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    31 December 2018 @ 11:34
    Good summary