Trading China via Malaysia

Published on
5 October, 2018
Topic
FX, China, Trading
Duration
11 minutes
Asset class
Currencies

Trading China via Malaysia

Featuring Joseph Trevisani

What lies ahead for the Chinese currency? Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, sits down with Justine Underhill to answer this very question. He revisits his bearish bet filmed in July, and reviews how to make the trade using a proxy currency. Filmed on October 2, 2018.

Published on
5 October, 2018
Topic
FX, China, Trading
Duration
11 minutes
Asset class
Currencies
Rating
7
Sharing

Comments

  • BZ

    Bin Z.

    10 10 2018 09:17

    1       0

    Hi all, I currently reside in Singapore and Malaysia is our next door neighbour.

    Not that i disagree on the trade wars trade, but a little more on Malaysia. They just came out of an election where I quote the BBC "92-year-old man has just pulled off the most extraordinary election result in Malaysian history". Was investors confidence shaken by the election hence the depreciation of the MYR? Or was it as a result of intentional depreciation?

    The increasing strength in the DXY is also worth considering.

  • SR

    Subash R.

    7 10 2018 20:19

    0       0

    Hi Forex experts,
    My Fx trading platform (TD ameritrade) doesn't have USD/MYR pair. Could someone please suggest which platform has it?

  • MH

    Marc H.

    5 10 2018 15:33

    2       0

    Seems like the AUD may be a good proxy for the Yuan as well.

  • JD

    John D.

    5 10 2018 14:17

    0       0

    No talks about otter macro economic indicators such as current account deficit and target CA deficit by Malaysian government. Not even points about how a sovereign rating downgrade may be on the cards which may be the catalyst for further depreciation. Sloppy analysis.

  • DR

    David R.

    5 10 2018 00:19

    4       0

    Kudos for having gotten the direction of this trade correctly since July. I recall he also picked long USD/INR, which has actually done much better than USD/MYR!! Note that longer term, USD/INR looks bullish but USD/MYR does not. USD/MYR is actually down 10% since the start of last year from 4.5 to 4.1 (ie., MYR has gained 10% against USD since beginning 2017) and USD/MYR is down 3% on a 12-month basis. Malaysia has rich natural resources and massive oil reserves in a small country enjoying 7-8% growth forever (and a soon-to-be Upper Income country per OECD, on par with UK and Canada by ~2020). So shorting MYR is partly a synthetic bet against the Brent Crude price. So there might be better EM to short, such as his USD/INR pick last time, or the SA Rand as South Africa (like all of Africa) is a totally hopeless basket-case write-off destined to be another Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Congo, etc. Finally, while USD/MYR should drift higher this year, a major reversal is in sight on the chart. And I agree that USD/MYR has faint hope of recovering its prior level of 4.5 in the foreseeable future, unless Brent oil prices crash like they did in 2015.