Trading FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt

Published on
October 25th, 2019
Duration
17 minutes

Trading FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Yvan Berthoux

Published on: October 25th, 2019 • Duration: 17 minutes

Yvan Berthoux, macro economist at Economic Perspectives, examines the macro backdrop and analyzes the divergence between traditional measures of volatility, such as the VIX, with uncertainty indices, like the EPU. He discusses why global growth is set to rebound in 2020, highlights the impact on the U.S. dollar, and explains how traders can profit in the coming risk-on environment. Filmed on October 24, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • VD
    Vincent D.
    5 November 2019 @ 19:31
    Guys, isn't RealVision about bringing all views, including the contrarian ones such as calling for a Euro rally and a comeback of euro-area banks? Maybe spend a little less time caring about shirts and chest hair (seriously, he carries the look well .. don't be haters) and actually listen to his arguments,
  • MK
    Markus K.
    2 November 2019 @ 10:16
    Why wear a shirt :o)))
  • BR
    Bryan R.
    31 October 2019 @ 05:05
    Long USD short the EURO, fomo continues until 2020?
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    27 October 2019 @ 16:54
    Love the chest hair
  • JJ
    Jesse J.
    27 October 2019 @ 14:32
    I'm going to try to summarize to get my thoughts out: - Mr. Berthoux it thinking the USD vs. EUR to decline slowly over time possibly beginning in 2020. Meaning dollar gets a little weaker and Euro gets a little stronger. Why? - There are net rate cuts currently around the globe in many countries which should lead to a stimulation in the global economy. Global Manufacturing should increase and give a bump to the Index. Why? - Uncertainty has taken its toll on the current system of things. The dollar (a safe investment) has risen. Gold (a safe investment) has risen. T-bills/bonds yields have dropped due to high demand (a "safe investment") Why? Primarily Trade War with US / Brexit debacle / Wild Card China Okay so a couple of things I agree with: -I really like Mr. Berthoux thought out pattern taking into account multiple countries and his optimism on global trade. He really has a solid point on net interest rates decreasing and essentially another QE (my words, not his) stimulating the economy. That probably will indeed lead to lower uncertainty. Unsure of: I don't think (my own opinion) that Brexit deal is gonna get done. I see that thing going on into the 20s easily. That's just such a volatile situation for them. I also don't see the trade war stopping anytime soon. China has got one over on Trump and is probably gonna make it difficult on him to finish up the deal. Especially now that he is dealing with his political mess. Overall, I'm definitely going to watch and keep in mind what Mr. Berthoux has said. It's in my mind and I'll be watching for signs to make moves if any of the things he indicated being looking spot on.
  • IS
    Ionel S.
    27 October 2019 @ 09:21
    Euro up and European equities up remembers the 2004-2006 period! Didn’t end up well for nobody!! Have a look: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-to-go-for-the-big-short-with-stocks-heres-when-youll-know-2017-01-06
  • MU
    Mo U.
    26 October 2019 @ 14:01
    Vive La France!
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    26 October 2019 @ 10:16
    Interesting views. Agree that USD will fall but as with everything the question is when.. Also very curious as to how European banks are "fair value" at these prices. Their investments a black box, who knows what's gonna pop out of them when you put it in the sun.
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    26 October 2019 @ 06:55
    I learned nothing from this guy. Boring.
  • ph
    phil h.
    25 October 2019 @ 23:52
    Lots of FUD
  • as
    andrew s.
    25 October 2019 @ 23:19
    Good to hear someone not talking about btc or gold
  • BM
    Beth M.
    25 October 2019 @ 17:42
    is this guy some kind of Halloween special? How about a basic dress code for your guests?
    • JL
      James L.
      31 October 2019 @ 01:08
      get over yourself, dont be so petty
  • NC
    Nathan C.
    25 October 2019 @ 14:20
    T Max.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    25 October 2019 @ 13:13
    I don't like this new trade ideas format. I like dialogue between interviewer and interviewee.
    • ET
      Eugenia T.
      25 October 2019 @ 16:42
      Ha I was just thinking how I like it much better. I find the interviewer distracting in these.
    • JL
      James L.
      31 October 2019 @ 01:10
      I agree, i think its fine
  • PU
    Peter U.
    25 October 2019 @ 11:26
    Lot of if this and if that . . . . classic economist. Not a slight on him, just the profession.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    25 October 2019 @ 09:16
    Great and unique take. Value added