Macro Insiders Sneak Peek: “Insider Talks – September 2019”

Published on
September 13th, 2019
Duration
45 minutes

Macro Insiders Sneak Peek: “Insider Talks – September 2019”

Macro Insiders ·
Featuring Julian Brigden and Raoul Pal

Published on: September 13th, 2019 • Duration: 45 minutes

In the latest of their monthly conversations, Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden discuss what it will take to avoid a looming recession, and how the U.S.-China trade war factors into the thesis. In addition, Julian speaks to his outlook for the U.S. dollar, and Raoul discusses the “true north” that his charts are now pointing toward. Filmed on September 5, 2019. Learn more about Macro Insiders here: http://www.realvision.com/macro-insiders

Comments

Transcript

  • MI
    Muhammad I.
    22 September 2019 @ 22:56
    Does anyone have the article of negative interest rate that Julian is talking about?
  • JL
    John L.
    19 September 2019 @ 19:21
    Congratulations and best wishes on you wedding Raoul.
  • SS
    Simon S.
    17 September 2019 @ 11:53
    Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't those informations regarding plumbing from Zoltan Pozsar global money notes? Or is there some other researcher from whom Zoltan is taking data? Because everything that was said is coming from his paper..
    • SS
      Simon S.
      17 September 2019 @ 11:53
      *that was said in the last few minutes
  • PW
    Pete W.
    17 September 2019 @ 05:26
    Raoul , I have a question. If there is this huge disparity between onshore and offshore dollars, how does this affect Eurodollar futures?
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    17 September 2019 @ 01:23
    Finally I understand why there is a market for negative-yielding debt. Without the bail-ins in Cyprus it wouldn't be possible. Now people realize that keeping money in the bank has risks and they prefer to take a guaranteed loss of -0.5% or whatever than risk the bank failing and losing all their money to a bail-in. Makes me wonder if the situation in Cyprus a few years ago was orchestrated to bring this about, or if the powers that be just took advantage of an unplanned situation.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 September 2019 @ 06:57
      Excellent point about the bank bail-ins and negative interest rates. This is exacerbated by no trusted bank insurance, compensating balances and government balance regulation. Cypress theft of bank deposits was probably not planned as they were desperate to use other-people's-money to get out of Dodge. They even took a large amount of money from the church. It would be interesting to hear a follow-up on the outcome. DLS
    • MI
      Muhammad I.
      22 September 2019 @ 22:56
      Does anyone have the article of negative interest rate that Julian is talking about?
  • MN
    MIMI N.
    16 September 2019 @ 22:59
    Aaaa@
  • PC
    Peter C.
    16 September 2019 @ 22:38
    I can clearly see Raoul's mind is somewhere else. actually learned quite a bit here. thank you.
  • RD
    Ravi D.
    16 September 2019 @ 19:41
    Since ECB delivered on its QE infinity and beyond, TLRTO extension and 10bps cut in depo rate (useless cut IMO) - Super Mario has left ECB with a bang..nicely setting up for Largarde. The German 10 year yield is moving higher.. why is this happening?
  • SV
    Steven V.
    16 September 2019 @ 18:06
    What makes the big liquidity drain even more interesting is that the economy is still in the midst of the approximate 18-month lag from QT.
  • DS
    David S.
    16 September 2019 @ 12:24
    Congratulations on your wedding!
  • EP
    Eddy P.
    15 September 2019 @ 21:33
    Thank you for a peek into insider talks. The back and forth is an insight to your thinking process and it is exciting to see the thought process. What I have have learned from Real Visionision is incredible. You have to process the information here and make you own decisions, If you want a manual on telling you exactly of what to do, go purchase a Chiltons manual and repair engines. Congratulations Raoul on finding the love of your life.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    15 September 2019 @ 14:31
    Who can help with "Bail-In" risk? Should this happen in the USA, how can we avoid it? Not really feasible to open numerous bank accounts with each having under $80-$100K cash deposits. Schwab sweeps cash and transactions into Schwab Bank, but how do we play it? Any suggestions appreciated! This presentation is a think tank for sure. Maybe the "something big" is a Monetary Crisis starting in Europe?
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    15 September 2019 @ 07:03
    Permanent portfolio. 25% Long term US Treasuries, 25% USD, 25% S&P ETF, 25% Gold Bullion You'll do great through all this over the next 5 years, but lose on part of it. Just be comfortable with admitting you don't know whats going to happen - and keep a trading portfolio to jump on the momentum where ever it builds. That's my plan at least.
    • ME
      Michael E.
      15 September 2019 @ 12:18
      I would delete SPY.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 September 2019 @ 03:03
      Michael E. - Would you go 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 or replace with something else? DLS
    • NH
      Nigel H.
      18 September 2019 @ 05:12
      Long USD from here? No EM, no commodities?
  • AA
    Anthony A.
    15 September 2019 @ 06:50
    Apart from the last 5 min I got nothin out of this!. It looks like nobody knows where we are headed from here.
    • TT
      Tokyo T.
      15 September 2019 @ 10:25
      if somebody tells you they know exactly what happens next, then you're being scammed.
    • RS
      Richard S.
      16 September 2019 @ 14:21
      That is trading. Nobody knows for certain. Unless they have 'black edge'
    • GS
      George S.
      16 September 2019 @ 23:21
      hey I have a book that tells you how to trade in this market and make 500% returns every day, look it up on Amazon, it called "Get Rich Quick - A fools guide to wealth" I use a unique system of crystal balls, tarrot cards and ouija boards to predict market movements.
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    15 September 2019 @ 01:02
    "Something is wrong, something is wrong. I cant point my finger, but interest rates will reach -3%." The thing is, he may be right. The thing is, Raoul mate has been warning us for 3 years. The thing is, last 3 years has been pretty good trade with >25% equity returns. The thing is, being early is also being wrong. The thing is, he will eventually be right one day, and he will come back and tout his horn. Respect Raoul for sticking out, but some reflection and self introspection would be good.
    • GS
      George S.
      16 September 2019 @ 22:57
      this is not CNBC fast money ...buy buy buy..sell sell sell He is stating a macro view for you to consider. He may be wrong, he may be right, but if your serious about investing , you listen and make your own mind up.
  • BB
    Brian B.
    14 September 2019 @ 17:44
    Again, disappointed with the commentary. i had hoped commentary would improve and expand my understanding of the content. Save a few, if you don't have anything to contribute use the thumbs up tool.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    14 September 2019 @ 17:09
    Congrats on your wedding Raoul. Now that's important stuff. Best wishes, Peter.
    • ME
      Michael E.
      15 September 2019 @ 12:20
      She is a lucky girl to catch a smart man.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    14 September 2019 @ 15:13
    Congrats and best wishes to Raoul on his upcoming marriage! Awesome!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    14 September 2019 @ 15:09
    What is the safe play/trade to avoid being screwed by "bail-in's" in the USA, i.e., Dodd-Frankenstien? Any ideas out there are appreciated.
  • DP
    David P.
    14 September 2019 @ 09:41
    Congrats for your weddibg Raoul. Very interesting that Dodd Frank-Eurodollar discussion at the end.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 September 2019 @ 05:50
    One can go to QE without dropping rates to zero. I agree pension funding must be a major driver. It is not just current payouts as people are retiring; it is all the funding for future payouts. The defined pension plans will force companies to add more funds to make up for the loss of the past expected market returns. This is a funding requirement that will decrease debt repayment and corporate buybacks. I do not know how it will play out, but I can see the cliff. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      18 September 2019 @ 02:05
      The NY Fed just dropped $53 billion in the overnight repo market. More to come just to cover deficits. QE without the name. Rates are not zero. DLS
  • AE
    Anders E.
    13 September 2019 @ 23:29
    https://www.macrovoices.com/683-macrovoices-184-luke-gromen-jeff-snider
    • PJ
      Peter J.
      14 September 2019 @ 11:51
      Agreed great discussion with JS and LG
  • DP
    D P.
    13 September 2019 @ 22:28
    Brilliant as always. Thank you.
  • BN
    Barrett N.
    13 September 2019 @ 22:06
    The RP/JB dialogue interviews are always great! Some of my favorites. Congratulations on the wedding! Best wishes. B
  • GA
    Getsld A.
    13 September 2019 @ 21:52
    Apologize about my player tweet this is not the format for technical issues
  • GT
    Greg T.
    13 September 2019 @ 21:47
    A landslide victory on a recession? WOW, I am sorry you have been either over thinking WAY TO MUCH or smoking some really good stuff. At least Julian still has all his marbles and made sense. I think you guys are going to surprised by the economic strength in China, even without a trade deal. They have pulled a bunch of levers and they will be kicking in soon, if not already. You guys really need to keep your politics out of investing. We really don't want to hear it. Also, every single Democrat is polling they would beat Trump - so you just burying your head in the sand won't change the facts that most Americans don't like Trump. We are not going to zero rates guys. This explains why banks are rallying again. The long end of the yield curve is rising, not falling. You got this entire thing backward. You will very likely get slaughtered. Julian might have a bit of a clue, but Raoul is lost. The doom loop. I guess you have to come up with something so retarded to scare people and try to sell newsletters. LOL
    • RI
      R I.
      13 September 2019 @ 22:57
      Greg is mostly correct.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      14 September 2019 @ 00:10
      What you say may be true. Probabilistically your narrative emerged for the last two weeks since oil / value stocks bottomed out, bonds peaked, and we had the last of the 3% daily sell offs in SPX. But that is precisely the debate Raoul and Julian are having, including Raoul publicly on Twitter (and as far as I’m concerned generously bc he could be doing a lot more fun with his time that showing you his views). So if I were you I’d be a little embarrassed not for being wrong or right but for claiming godlike trolling / dominance of these guys. If you ask them, “how do you know?” Then sir how do YOU know? And what trade / asset allocation have you had on for the last 12 months that gives you the privilege of not only expressing an extremely certain view, but an insulting air about it?
    • GT
      Greg T.
      14 September 2019 @ 00:32
      Michael, I have been way long growth stocks since the bottom in 2009 such as MSFT, MA, V, AMZN etc...I have gradually paired back based on my valuation model over time. I increased exposure again in January after the December slaughter. I have again paired back exposure to the least I have had since the start of the bull market in US Equities. I have started scaling into foreign equities now which nobody loves. As for bonds I bought the long bond based on my bond model in January and sold it before the recent slaughter simply because it had gone parabolic. There is no logical reason why long term interest rates should be less than short term rates so it was an easy trade. Greed took over and valuation went out the window. My bond exposure is all very short duration now and will continue to be for probably quite some time. If you got value from Raoul thats great. I am sorry, he comes across to me as if he is off his marbles in this interview. Good luck.
    • as
      andrew s.
      14 September 2019 @ 00:54
      ' including Raoul publicly on Twitter (and as far as I’m concerned generously ' RV is a subscription service
    • MK
      Michael K.
      14 September 2019 @ 02:03
      Thanks Greg for addressing in depth and balanced emotionally. Respect.
    • GT
      Greg T.
      14 September 2019 @ 04:28
      No problem Michael. I respect that Raoul didn’t take my comments down. Most people selling something would have simply removed the comment. I do think it’s great he allowed the discussion and opportunity for people to hear multiple views and form their own opinion.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 September 2019 @ 13:42
      Greg, Im not sure where you think my politics lies in all of this. I NEVER bring my politics into RV. It is not a format for that and would be irrelevant. I am exploring the idea that a populist government tends to feed on anger or euphoria to provide the oxygen they need to flourish. Consensus thinknig is that recession is bad but I am challenging consensus thinking. My view is Trump would lose in a 1% to 2% GDP growth environment but the distribution "wings" probably work in his favour. Is my analysis right? I have no idea, hence why I ignore any investing based around politics. I hope that helps explain my reasoning.
    • GT
      Greg T.
      14 September 2019 @ 19:30
      Thanks for the response Raoul, but does it really matter if Trump wins or loses? The FED is independent (despite him pounding them daily), and both Republicans and Democrats spend spend spend, just on different things.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      14 September 2019 @ 19:48
      You could very well be right Greg. You could get your points across without being a rude prick though.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 September 2019 @ 09:13
      It will make a great deal of difference who wins the next US presidential election. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      18 September 2019 @ 08:14
      Greg , to my mind Raoul's strength is his passion and honesty i.e he admits he doesn't get it right all the time and embraces the other view ( which all good traders do ). I think it's healthy for all that you can go on this platform and air your opinion , but call his view retarded is a very naive understanding of this great monetary experiment for the past decade . Maybe you should go on Macro Insiders as you picked the bottom in 2009 , had the balls to hold on for the past decade yet maybe like a lot of average traders you tell everyone about your winners and put your dog trades into the recess of your mind.
    • BT
      Brian T.
      24 September 2019 @ 12:28
      Dear Greg, RP, DLS thank you for having a meaningful sharing of a different viewpoint. I'm glad that you are willing to share in strong words though 'lost, retarded, and smoking some really good stuff'- may be a bit strong (though I'm sure RP is fine with that). I guess I would ask what your sources of information are to be so certain? Thanks Again...
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    13 September 2019 @ 21:23
    Pleasantly surprised and appreciative to see an episode of Macro Insiders on RealVision. Perhaps I misunderstood that these conversations were going to be limited to those who paid an additional premium above the annual RealVision fee. I don't expect to be able to watch future editions in the same time frame as those who pay, but even an 8 day lag is really interesting and helpful in understanding what's going on. (One of you mentioned the conversation was on the 5th and this is published on the 13th). For those of us who are merely retirees, lacking the funds or the knowledge to engage in most of the trades you describe, please know that your conversations are nonetheless really super stuff. I hope RealVision, Raoul and Julian will continue to make these available from time to time, and this was not a one time "sneak peek".. And congratulations to Raoul and his significant other. Much happiness.
  • GA
    Getsld A.
    13 September 2019 @ 21:09
    Having trouble with your player as it told me
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    13 September 2019 @ 20:44
    THIS is why I am a Macro Insiders subscriber! Off-the-scale thought provoking. And Raoul: congratulations!
  • hb
    huey b.
    13 September 2019 @ 20:35
    Thanks for explaining the TGA (Treasury General Account) as a piggy bank. It helps to explain why it is important yet does not seem to correlate to anything else.
  • JA
    Justin A.
    13 September 2019 @ 19:17
    You should have Juliette Declercq back on RV. Her recent analysis on h/t @macrovoices for how monetary and fiscal policy will end up working together, while scary, is very compelling and I would like to hear more. Keep up the good work!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 September 2019 @ 13:43
      She is being filmed in London next week
  • GC
    George C.
    13 September 2019 @ 18:12
    A landslide victory? Seriously. (Not sure two Brits offer the best insight into U.S. politics.) Trump may win but he will never win a landslide victory, no matter what the market or economy is doing at the time. In any case, from an investor's standpoint, the question is, how do we position ourselves NOW? Which brings me to inflation, growth, earnings, and USD. Hard to forecast, as proven by humans' terrible track record in doing so. Hence, how do we manage risks given current conditions and probabilities (e.g., what to do about bonds)? Like it when you address specifics (what's the trade?), more so than the discussions about what could happen (possibilities). Also, like it when Raoul asks, what if we're all wrong? Helps us ask what we should always be asking ourselves: what if we're not seeing things clearly? This conversation spurred thought. Good job, guys.
  • TS
    Trevor S.
    13 September 2019 @ 17:06
    Great discussion! The end of the conversation may warrant Zoltan Pozsar's appearance on RV. ;)
  • GS
    Greg S.
    13 September 2019 @ 16:59
    Maybe i'm ignorant on something, but we keep talking about bond yields heading lower as the major risk. I agree, this is part of the major problem, but we already have 17 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt. During selloffs like what we've seen in the last few days, anybody holding this 17 trillion worth of debt is getting eaten alive. The amount of losses on this $ is enormous. I think we head back negative, but the spikes both ways in bond volatility are going to be brutal..
  • jp
    john p.
    13 September 2019 @ 16:56
    Julian What is the brand and model number of the microphone you are using? your voice comes through so clear. Thank you The interviews with you are Raoul are the best!
  • WB
    Wes B.
    13 September 2019 @ 14:11
    Congrats RP!
  • IS
    Ionel S.
    13 September 2019 @ 13:55
    Coppock Indicator for KBE US is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. This is a Long term buy signal. This is the 3rd signal this cycle (1st was in April 2012, 2nd was September 2016 and now again).
    • JA
      Justin A.
      13 September 2019 @ 19:08
      Curious to know what time frames you use with this indicator?
    • GT
      Greg T.
      13 September 2019 @ 21:21
      Interesting. I follow this on DJIA, but have not looked at it on KBE. I will check it out. Thanks!
    • IS
      Ionel S.
      14 September 2019 @ 12:16
      That’s the original formula : {\displaystyle Coppock=WMA[10]\;of\;(ROC[14]+ROC[11])} And I use Bloomberg to track the curve...
  • JK
    Jay K.
    13 September 2019 @ 13:13
    Doom Loop. Sounds ominous.
  • JL
    J L.
    13 September 2019 @ 13:06
    so who's buying bonds today
  • DS
    Darryl S.
    13 September 2019 @ 11:52
    I threw comments on Twitter as we progressed through this discussion /video. I really (really) think you both considered the eventualities and possibilities and loosely picked a winner. This will end up near the metal space. Not because I am heavy and long but because you merged the politics, the personalities and the market. That's why I subscribe. Great job and real talk.
  • JA
    John A.
    13 September 2019 @ 11:51
    Thinkers like Raoul are the reason we subscribe to RealVision. Congrats on the wedding!
  • BH
    Bradley H.
    13 September 2019 @ 11:44
    Julian get Keith McCullough next month
    • BS
      Bill S.
      13 September 2019 @ 17:10
      Did you know he had the lowest SAT score at Yale.......won’t be much of a discussion when someone claims to have hung the moon.
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    13 September 2019 @ 10:30
    Excellent discussion, Thanks
  • HK
    H K.
    13 September 2019 @ 10:00
    Great interview - the part covered about the on/off dollars was v interesting. And congratulations to Raoul!
  • VV
    Vanessa V.
    13 September 2019 @ 09:20
    Thank you both for sharing your thoughts with the RV community. Raoul, wishing you and your wife-to-be a beautiful wedding and life together - may your lives be full of joy, love and deep authenticity.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 September 2019 @ 13:45
      Thank you so much!
  • SG
    Siebe G.
    13 September 2019 @ 07:29
    Please bring out a clip on youtube, from Julian talking about the Brexit!
  • TB
    Timothy B.
    13 September 2019 @ 06:34
    I think the problem is that the dollar is too strong but it is one of the few currencies backed by very real rare assets like oil and war. This creates a conundrum with QE eventually ending in deflation equal to that of the inflation QE creates, canceling it out. Because of this petrodollar based system, assets like oil are priced in dollars, a currency hard to obtain in other countries undergoing inflation well into the later stages of QE and/or approaching recession, therefore when the feds try to inflate the dollar it actually creates more demand for dollars because they are needed to purchase assets and/or pay down debts which are based in dollars. Most people think the feds and central banks have the tools necessary to inflate the US dollar to match that of other countries but when it doesn't work and the dollar continues to climb, this may be the black swan nobody sees coming. This explains a lot about why the multi trillion bailouts didn't cause any perceived inflation of assets, not necessarily because it didn't reach the working class, but because QE gets cancelled out by the increased demand for dollars during a recession.
    • DS
      David S.
      13 September 2019 @ 08:56
      Very interesting idea. I will include it in my thinking. My base case on the lack of inflation and strong dollar, nothing new, are sovereign, corporate and private debt; QE ad nauseam inflating financial assets, Trade war recklessly implemented; and the carry trade generated by negative bond yields. We will be in this strange world for a long time. DLS
  • CE
    Christopher E.
    13 September 2019 @ 05:14
    Aloha Real Vision Team, as always I laugh and I cry, as I look forward to another timely insightful episode of the Macro masters MI based work. Thanks for everything, take care, and stay sharp.
    • CE
      Christopher E.
      13 September 2019 @ 05:33
      It would have been even more fantastic if it captured todays ECB QE for eternity twist, and the new (?) weirdness in the markets that's been shaking everything and everyone up. Excellent lead in for me ponying up for a full sub on the MI 👍👍
    • CE
      Christopher E.
      13 September 2019 @ 05:45
      Congratulations 🎉 to Raoul for your wedding. 👏