Oil – Market Positioning

Featuring Raoul Pal, Emad Mostaque, Diego Parrilla, Tracy Shuchart

In Episode One of ‘The Big Story – Oil’, Raoul Pal looks at the market positioning and the short term factors influencing supply and demand. Drawing together the views of experts in the commodity space, Raoul examines who is holding these record long positions and where the hedging is taking place. He also asks why the oil price hasn’t risen in spite of this support and if any buyers are going to be there if they pull out.

Published on
12 May, 2017
Topic
Research, Energy Commodities, Trading
Duration
25 minutes
Asset class
Commodities
Rating
15

Comments

  • DB

    Douglas B.

    31 5 2017 18:01

    1       0

    Thank you Raoul. Awesome analysis and presentation

  • PS

    PD S.

    21 5 2017 00:07

    0       0

    great job raoul as always :)

  • TB

    Thomas B.

    18 5 2017 13:34

    1       0

    This format (with cuts) looks like real television! Thanks from a former TV journalist

    • DR

      David R.

      7 6 2017 21:09

      0       0

      I suppose that's why it's called Real vision :)

  • JW

    JP W.

    14 5 2017 20:17

    1       0

    Enjoyed hearing about your process here and how you went about developing this. Generosity appreciated!

  • BK

    Bruce K.

    14 5 2017 17:30

    2       0

    Candidate vehicle for executing the thesis: LEAP PUTs on USO. Would love to hear opinions ...

  • EG

    Eric G.

    14 5 2017 08:51

    3       0

    Great heavy metal transitions

    • BK

      Bruce K.

      14 5 2017 17:29

      0       0

      Candidate vehicle for executing the thesis: LEAP PUTs on USO. Would love to hear opinions ...

  • SS

    Steven S.

    14 5 2017 08:49

    0       0

    I'm really euphoric on THIS trade. thank you Raoul. But looks like there enough potential selling pressure to latch on to a long term buy n sell eventually. It take more energy to recover shale oil. Question is about the Saudi's reserves after +30 years of golden bull market in oil for the future upwards in price of that commodity.

  • JM

    Jim M.

    13 5 2017 20:22

    2       0

    Demonstrating once again the immense value of RVTV. The qualilty and quantity of output is astounding.

  • EL

    Edward L.

    13 5 2017 20:19

    1       0

    a fascinating discussion for the unsophisticated and poorly educated - like me

  • RR

    Raj R.

    13 5 2017 01:43

    1       0

    Although OPEC may keep prices stable with their talking and no real output cuts. Again, timing this is really hard. If oil price does fall I wonder if the fed will rise interest rates fearing deflatio

  • NH

    Neil H.

    12 5 2017 18:31

    7       0

    based on all the information you presented I am still confused why all the speculators are still long when they have the same information that you have. Would be great to get an answer on this in your next segment

    • ML

      Michael L.

      12 5 2017 22:35

      6       0

      I thought he made it pretty clear. speculators have their faith in OPEC just like bond guys trust central bank buying

    • GS

      Greg S.

      13 5 2017 01:02

      1       1

      Ditto, Michael L.

  • AC

    Ashis C.

    12 5 2017 18:31

    4       0

    I just signed up for RV 1 mo ago. It is a real gem for knowledge. Excellent analysis!

  • LA

    Linda A.

    12 5 2017 17:43

    4       0

    Excellent to have oil experts confirm your trade! The key for me is future delivery price is below price today & mkt is flooded with oil. Not only is shale a competitor but electric/ battery technology (vehicles) is ramping up as another source of energy.

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    12 5 2017 17:41

    19       1

    We are from Calgary. 30% of our office towers are EMPTY - yet, people still believe/hope that oil will be $55 - $60 next year. They should be thinking $30 - $40 next year and a low of say $20 the year after!
    Great Series Raoul - well done!!!

    • AC

      Andy C.

      13 5 2017 08:32

      1       0

      $20???

    • dd

      darrell d.

      15 5 2017 21:13

      1       0

      Office towers - Know someone directly on the commercial side. Landlords trying to lease just to cover operating costs. Interesting, however, is that the Natural Gas market is diverging from WTI. Two large electricity providers might take coal right of the system and introduce all Ngas turbines. Transalta could add 10% demand alone. But this is a 2019+ story.

  • DK

    Daniel K.

    12 5 2017 17:14

    7       0

    Getting respected twitter people involved is a good idea.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    12 5 2017 16:22

    4       0

    Awesome info and thought process! Shows how complicated the market really is.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    12 5 2017 15:51

    1       0

    You put this in a TBC (to be continued) format!!!! NO!!!!!! You tease!!!!

  • HB

    Heini B.

    12 5 2017 14:24

    10       0

    I keep thinking man RV cant get any better . . . and then it does. Great format, thanks Raoul for letting us inside your brain!

  • bs

    bernard s.

    12 5 2017 14:19

    4       0

    Extremely useful given the world seems to be focused on oil right now

  • JM

    James M.

    12 5 2017 14:12

    7       0

    Raoul ..... Knocks it out the fukin park once againnnnnn the crowd goes WILDDDD!!!!
    Excellent stuff and the main reason I,m in this gig. CHEERS CHIEF!!!!

  • RM

    Richard M.

    12 5 2017 13:24

    12       0

    Holy cow!!! This is fantastic Raoul, thank you so much. Great stuff.

  • AB

    Alain B.

    12 5 2017 11:39

    5       0

    Excellent idea to source via Twitter!